Silvopastoral systems with native trees: the economic, productive and social potential in the cerrado mineiro
The Cerrado is the most biodiverse savanna in the world, with a high rate of endemism and the provision of essential ecosystem services. Currently, the Cerrado presents a wide range of land uses and is constantly affected by land-use conversion due to its high agricultural productive potential. Among these uses, silvopastoral systems (SPS) with native trees stand out as an alternative model that integrates local biodiversity with economic practices of natural resource use. This research aims to clarify the current status of these systems and assess their economic, productive, and social potential in the Cerrado of northern Minas Gerais. In Chapter 1, we assessed the economic performance and sensitivity of the three main land uses in the region: agriculture, silvopastoral systems with native trees, and Eucalyptus plantations, with different sample sizes. For each system, we calculated gross margin and profitability indicators, considering income and both fixed and variable costs. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation and a Random Forest model. The results revealed statistically significant differences in cost structure, income composition, and profitability across systems. Eucalyptus plantations showed the highest average profitability and the lowest economic risk, although they are highly dependent on external inputs (hired labor, market access, and infrastructure). SPS presented intermediate performance, with lower variable costs and potential ecological co-benefits, although their productive and commercial remains underutilized. Agriculture, primarily family-based and subsistence-oriented, showed the lowest profitability due to high fixed costs and limited market integration. Family labor was the main fixed cost component in both agriculture and SPS, strongly influencing the economic results. Despite the differences, low-risk farms were identified across all land uses, suggesting that profitability is achievable under supportive conditions. These findings underscore the importance of specific public policies that promote financial planning, technical assistance, and diversification of income sources in each land use. In Chapter 2, we investigated which productive, environmental, socioeconomic, technical, and farm-related factors influence the adoption and intensification of SPS with native trees. Based on interviews conducted with over 100 farmers, we used the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model, estimated through the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method. Three equations were developed to assess the adoption of SPS, the intensification of its use through the generation of products, and the commercialization of these products. We found that 12 variables, distributed across the five groups of factors, influence the adoption and intensification of SPS differently. Water availability for production and the presence of family labor are key factors for intensification, although they do not directly affect adoption. In contrast, the age of farmers and their environmental awareness impact adoption but not intensification, often associated with older and more environmentally conscious farmers. Variables such as the total number of land uses and currently productive land uses positively affect all equations, while the distance between the farmer’s residence and the productive area has a negative effect. Based on these findings, we propose public policies targeting two groups, adopters and non-adopters, so that efforts to promote SPS with native trees focus not only on increasing adoption but also on intensifying its use. In Chapter 3, we investigated the NTFP market through interviews with traders located in the study region and major urban centers of the Cerrado in Minas Gerais. Using K-means clustering, we identified three market segments: small-scaled, medium-scaled, and large-scaled. The small-scaled market is characterized by low product diversity, predominantly unprocessed goods, and is found in municipalities with smaller populations, resulting in a more limited market. The medium-scaled market has the highest proportion of processed products and is present in the main municipalities of the study region but still has limited product diversity and volume. The large-scaled market includes traders located in large urban centers and the most populous municipality of the region, with higher commercialization levels, diverse suppliers, and a broad variety of products and species. Despite these differences, certain products such as pequi (Caryocar brasiliense) are found across all market segments, highlighting their commercial relevance. At the same time, each segment includes exclusive products, indicating a specialization in supply. The NTFP market context reveals a high economic and productive potential, particularly relevant for farmers who adopt SPS with native trees, given the variety of market scales and products identified. Keywords: land use; rural sustainability; non-timber forest products; economic analysis; farmers’ decision-making ; family farming; value chains; agroforestry systems; climate adaptation; productive diversification
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