Enhancing peak prediction in residential load forecasting with soft dynamic time wrapping loss functions

Short-term power load forecasting is conducive to the stable operation of the power grid and can rationally allocate resources to reduce the waste of electric energy and promote the realization of the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutral.” The current power load forecasting models generally have the disadvantages of poor accuracy and long prediction time. In this paper, we propose a dung beetle optimization algorithm combined with a time convolution network (DBO-TCN) model. First, we use DBO to optimize the parameters and then use TCN to predict the results and calculate the evaluation indexes as RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)=3.7936; MSE(Mean Squared Error)=14.3916; MAE(Mean Absolute Error)=2.7448; MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)=0.016258; R^2(R-squared)=0.9833. The results are as follows: The model has high accuracy and good stability, which can improve the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting and maintain the stability.

Short-term load forecasting is an important component of grid economic dispatching and the forecasting error directly affects the economy of grid operation. Different from wide area power grid, it is more difficult to implement short-term user load forecasting, especially existing missing data. The feature model about user load is constructed by analyzing the static, dynamic and distributed characteristics of user load. Then, based on gradient boosted decision trees and similar training samples, a short-term user load filling and forecasting model is proposed. Through predicting different types of user load in short-term, to analyze filling model about missing load data is helpful to improve the accuracy of short-term user load forecasting. And, the forecasting accuracy and its stability of the proposed model are validated.

Accurate electrical load forecasting is of great significance to help power companies in better scheduling and efficient management. Since high levels of uncertainties exist in the load time series, it is a challenging task to make accurate short-term load forecast (STLF). In recent years, deep learning approaches provide better performance to predict electrical load in real world cases. The convolutional neural network (CNN) can extract the local trend and capture the same pattern, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed to learn the relationship in time steps. In this paper, a new deep neural network framework that integrates the hidden feature of the CNN model and the LSTM model is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy. The proposed model was tested in a real-world case, and detailed experiments were conducted to validate its practicality and stability. The forecasting performance of the proposed model was compared with the LSTM model and the CNN model. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used as the evaluation indexes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can achieve better and stable performance in STLF.

Short-term load forecasting plays a vital role for the power system’s safe operation and production arrangements. This paper regards electric load forecasting as a nonlinear time series prediction problem, and establishes the electric load autoregressive prediction model (ARX Model) based on historical load data, approaching ARX model parameters with RBF neural network, estimating model parameters with using a Structured Nonlinear Parameters Optimization Method (SNPOM), proposing cycle prediction method for short-term electric load forecasting. Experimental results show that the method has higher prediction accuracy for short-term electric load forecasting. Keywords: Short-term load forecasting; time series; RBF-ARX model; cycle forecasting; structured nonlinear parameter optimization method

Short-term electricity load forecasting provides a basis for day-ahead energy scheduling. To improve the accuracy of short-term electricity load forecasts and deeply explore the temporal characteristics of load sequences, a method is proposed to extract predictable components of load sequences based on the secretary bird optimization algorithm (SBOA)-optimized successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD). This method decomposes the electricity load sequence into multiple subsequences under different time series. The combined forecasting architecture of the temporal convolutional network (TCN) and the bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) is introduced to mine the temporal characteristics of each load component, resulting in short-term load forecasting outcomes. A case study is conducted using the annual electricity load data for the year 2018 from a specific region in Belgium. The experimental results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) of the TCN–BiLSTM model is reduced by 47.8%, 32.8%, and 11.5%, respectively, compared to other models. The root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced by 42.9%, 39.2%, and 11.3%, respectively, and the average goodness of fit R2 is reduced by 9.81%.

Short-term load forecasting is viewed as one promising technology for demand prediction under the most critical inputs for the promising arrangement of power plant units. Thus, it is imperative to present new incentive methods to motivate such power system operations for electricity management. This paper proposes an approach for short-term electric load forecasting using long short-term memory networks and an improved sine cosine algorithm called MetaREC. First, using long short-term memory networks for a special kind of recurrent neural network, the dispatching commands have the characteristics of storing and transmitting both long-term and short-term memories. Next, four important parameters are determined using the sine cosine algorithm base on a logistic chaos operator and multilevel modulation factor to overcome the inaccuracy of long short-term memory networks prediction, in terms of the manual selection of parameter values. Moreover, the performance of the MetaREC method outperforms others with regard to convergence accuracy and convergence speed on a variety of test functions. Finally, our analysis is extended to the scenario of the MetaREC_long short-term memory with back propagation neural network, long short-term memory networks with default parameters, long short-term memory networks with the conventional sine-cosine algorithm, and long short-term memory networks with whale optimization for power load forecasting on a real electric load dataset. Simulation results demonstrate that the multiple forecasts with MetaREC_long short-term memory can effectively incentivize the high accuracy and stability for short-term power load forecasting.

Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction

Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting (STRLF) is a core task in smart grid dispatching and energy management, and its accuracy directly affects the economy and stability of power systems. Current mainstream methods still have limitations in addressing issues such as complex temporal patterns, strong stochasticity of load data, and insufficient model interpretability. To this end, this paper proposes an explainable and efficient forecasting framework named KAN+Transformer, which integrates Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) with Transformers. The framework achieves performance breakthroughs through three innovative designs: constructing a Reversible Mixture of KAN Experts (RMoK) layer, which optimizes expert weight allocation using a load-balancing loss to enhance feature extraction capability while preserving model interpretability; designing an attention-guided cascading mechanism to dynamically fuse the local temporal patterns extracted by KAN with the global dependencies captured by the Transformer; and introducing a multi-objective loss function to explicitly model the periodicity and trend characteristics of load data. Experiments on four power benchmark datasets show that KAN+Transformer significantly outperforms advanced models such as Autoformer and Informer; ablation studies confirm that the KAN module and the specialized loss function bring accuracy improvements of 7.2% and 4.8%, respectively; visualization analysis further verifies the model’s decision-making interpretability through weight-feature correlation, providing a new paradigm for high-precision and explainable load forecasting in smart grids. Collectively, the results demonstrate our model’s superior capability in representing complex residential load dynamics and capturing both transient and stable consumption behaviors. By enabling more accurate, interpretable, and computationally efficient short-term load forecasting, the proposed KAN+Transformer framework provides effective support for demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and intelligent grid operation. As such, it contributes to improving energy utilization efficiency and enhancing the sustainability and resilience of modern power systems.

Short-Term Load Forecast at residential house level plays a critical role in home energy management system. While a variety of machine learning based load forecasting methods have been proposed, their prediction performance have not been assessed against cyber threats on smart meters which have been increasingly reported. This paper investigates the vulnerability of four extensively used machine learning algorithms for residential short-term load forecast against cyberattacks, including Nonlinear Auto Regression with external input (NARX) neural network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), and long-short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning. We use the REFIT dataset which collected whole-house aggregated loads at 8-second intervals continuously from 20 houses over a two-year period in the U.K. The results were determined and show the predictions using NARX and LSTM. Four cyberattack models are investigated, including pulse, scale, ramp, and random. The vulnerability assessment results indicate the LSTM provides the most accurate prediction without cyberattacks. However, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM fluctuates when there are cyber-attacks. Among the four cyberattacks, the random attack triggered the larges variations on the predication results.

Electricity load forecast needs to ensure minimum load wastage and requires intelligent decision-making systems to accurately predict future load demand. Learning capability, robustness and ability to solve nonlinear problems make ANN widely acceptable. For accurate short-term load forecast (STLF), an ensemble soft computing approach, namely ANN-PSOHm, composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with homeostasis based mutation is presented in this article. To enhance the learning strength of ANN, PSO undergoes homeostasis mutation to bring greater diversity among solutions by exploring in wider search space. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ANN, three case studies on load data of NEPOOL region (courtesy ISO New England) are performed. The experimental results show that ANN-PSOHm improves accuracy by 11.57% MAPE over ANN-PSO.

Short-term load forecasting is very important for power system dispatching since the economy and stability of power system are affected by the accuracy of load forecasting. Therefore, a short-term load forecasting method based on deep belief neural network (DBN) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the low-voltage user load data are normalized to construct the training set and test set for low-voltage user short-term load forecasting; then, the DBN model is trained and adjusted by using the training set to obtain the well-trained DBN network; finally, the historical data of short-term load of users are input for load forecasting. The actual load data in Zhejiang power grid of China are serviced for demonstrating the effectiveness the proposed algorithm. The simulation results show that the short-term load forecasting algorithm proposed in this paper is with high accuracy for the actual load forecasting of low voltage users.

Load forecasting is used primarily to predict future loads for a particular system over a given time period. Short-term loads are typically treated as variable elements influenced by factors such as historical load information and weather datasets, including precipitation, wind speed, and temperature. A precise forecasting with an individual model is almost impossible. The primary challenge for utility companies worldwide is accurately forecasting energy consumption. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a cornerstone of smart grid operation, enabling demand-side management (DSM), demand response programs, and efficient integration of distributed energy resources. This study proposes a fuzzy time series (FTS)-based methodology for residential electricity consumption forecasting at hourly, daily, and weekly scales. By addressing overfitting during data partitioning and refining the fuzzification process, our approach improves prediction accuracy compared to traditional FTS models. Simulation results using real consumption data demonstrate up to 40% improvement in hourly forecasting and up to 58% and 84% improvements in daily and weekly forecasts, respectively. These results highlight the potential of FTS-based models to enhance residential demand forecasting, reduce peak-demand uncertainty, and support grid operators in achieving more resilient, flexible, and sustainable smart grid systems.

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the variability of demand in microgrids have intensified the need for accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF). This study develops a multivariable STLF framework using the Bayesian Regularization Algorithm (BRA) and validates its performance against a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network. Temperature, humidity, and feeder current were employed as input variables, while electrical load (MW) served as the output. Both models were implemented in MATLAB R2018a with a 120-minute forecasting horizon. Performance evaluation was conducted using regression analysis and statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results show that the BRA model achieved superior regression accuracy (R² ≈ 0.997), demonstrating robustness and generalization under noisy conditions. By contrast, Bi-LSTM attained R² ≈ 0.991 with lower error magnitudes (MAE = 0.0293, RMSE = 0.0412), reflecting its strength in capturing sequential dependencies. A comparative review with existing literature, including confirms the competitiveness of Bi-LSTM while highlighting BRA’s resilience against noisy fluctuations typical of Nigerian microgrid environments. This study contributes to microgrid energy management by providing practical insights into selecting forecasting models, emphasizing that BRA is well-suited for noisy, small datasets, while Bi-LSTM excels in sequence-sensitive forecasting. The findings also suggest the potential for hybrid BRA–Bi-LSTM architectures to enhance forecasting accuracy in real-world microgrid applications.

In electrical engineering load forecasting have been tried out using traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence techniques and have become one of the major research fields. An accurate and efficient Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role for economic operational planning of both regulated power systems and electricity markets. To develop a solution/methodology to demand forecast (Hourly load forecast) and by incorporating weather conditions. However, STLF it is pertinent to understand conventional methods. Therefore, popular conventional methods were implemented to learn methods for STLF. This paper presents Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Auto Regressive and Multiple linear regressions for short term load forecasting. Conventional technique approach is implemented on historical load data for forecasting the load. PGVCL hourly load data used for training and testing is collected from ALDC, Jetpur, Gujarat. Hence hereby in this paper I have compared five conventional methods for STLF and have come out with a result that forecasting errors of time series models gives reasonably accurate hour ahead load forecast.

Efficient energy management is crucial given 2024's 4.1% worldwide electricity demand increase. This urgency emphasizes the necessity for various, sustainable energy sources in distribution grids. Short-term load prediction approaches using probabilistic power generation and energy storage are crucial for energy usage prediction. Urban energy planners use simulation, probability optimization and modelling to create sustainable energy systems. This study offers a novel hybrid model for smart grids: short-term energy load prediction using transfer learning (TL) and optimized lightGBM (OLGBM). Our two-phase solution tackles Short-term Load Forecasting complexities. First, aberrant supplements and quick deviation selection eliminate missing values and identify key features during data pre-processing. Second, TL-OLGBM learns dynamic time scales and complex data patterns with Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters to improve forecasting accuracy. Additionally, our architecture easily combines the newest Smart and Green Technology, enabling energy system innovation. Comparative performance research shows that our technique outperforms similar models in mean absolute percentage error, accuracy and root mean square error. This hybrid model is a reliable short-term energy load forecast solution that fits the dynamic terrain of smart and green technology integration in modern energy systems.