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  • https://doi.org/10.1109/agers67633.2025.11446438Copy DOI Icon

Enhancing Public Travel Behavior Modeling in Jakarta Through Advanced Machine Learning Techniques

  • Dec 17, 2025
  • Wilsen Julius +3 more
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Abstract

This study aims to analyze public travel behavior in Jakarta, with a focus on the choice between public and private transportation modes. The purpose of this study is to understand travel behavior in Jakarta and to provide valuable insights to the local government for developing better policies in the public transportation system. The data were collected through a real survey of Jakarta residents aged 18 and under to over 45 years old, showing that private motorcycles are the most popular mode, followed by TransJakarta and ride-hailing services. Three machine learning techniques, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and SHAP, were applied to predict transportation mode choices. Among the models, XGBoost achieved the best accuracy (86%), indicating outstanding predictive performance. Based on the SHAP analysis, the most important factors influencing transportation choice are travel cost, comfort, and mode integration. Geospatial mapping further highlights the spatial distribution of dominant transportation modes across Jakarta’s sub-districts, illustrating strong reliance on private motorcycles in North, West, and Central Jakarta, while TransJakarta usage is more focused in South and East Jakarta. These findings highlight Jakarta’s dependency on private transportation despite improvements in public transportation infrastructure. Overall, the study offers insights into policy formulation, public transportation improvement, and business strategy optimization in the online transportation industry.

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