Environmental data provide marginal benefit for predicting climate adaptation

Climate change, its causes and effects have become a topical issue in the world today. Universal increases in temperature and sea levels, are evidences of this global phenomenon. In the field of architecture, climate-resilient and climate-responsive domestic buildings are being developed to adapt to changing climates, while being socio-economically suited to their geographical contexts. Much research in this area has been carried out in developing tropical countries such as Nigeria. Most studies concentrate on passive optimisation of building envelopes to promote thermal comfort and reduce reliance on active mechanical controls which worsen climate change. Thus, it may be said that thermal comfort has been established as a link between climate change and housing. In south-west Nigeria, where an abundance of tropical rainforests engenders a hot-humid climate, achieving thermal comfort in buildings is a major need. Studies show that of all house envelopes in south-west Nigeria through time, two housing styles namely the pre-colonial traditional and colonial modernist styles best demonstrate effective use of climatic design principles in achieving thermally comfortable interiors. However, due to cultural changes over time, a third style of housing which is referred to as contemporary south-west Nigerian housing, is currently the most preferred form of housing. South-west Nigerian contemporary house shows considerable influence from the International Style. This housing style features envelopes with minimum use of climatic design principles and maximum reliance on mechanical cooling devices such as air conditioners, in providing indoor thermal comfort. These mechanical devices, however, are known for aggravating south-west Nigerian climate change. To reduce the aggravation of climate change caused by south-west Nigerian contemporary housing envelopes, this study proposes a free-running contemporary house envelope which promotes thermal comfort in present and future south-west Nigerian climates. As such, the study extensively reviewed climatic design principles and thermal standards applicable in tropical climates as well as material on chronological south-west Nigerian housing developments. The study modelled and evaluated the thermal performance of a free-running, base-case contemporary house envelope in present and future climates, using DesignBuilder’s dynamic thermal simulations. South-west Nigerian present and future climatic data used in the simulations, were generated by the climatic data source and calculation software Meteonorm. South-west Nigerian present climatic data was validated by readings from data loggers placed in a real-live contemporary base-case house in the region. The results of this study’s simulations confirmed that the free-running, base-case contemporary house envelope does not promote thermal comfort in present climates, hence the current supplementary mechanical thermal controls. Additionally, the results showed that the contemporary envelope would not promote thermal comfort in future south-west Nigerian climates. As such, this study then proceeded to optimise the contemporary house envelope to improve its thermal performance in south-west Nigerian present and future climates. This optimisation involved adjusting the envelope specifications under the following parameters: headroom height, external wall (thermal mass, insulation and thickness), internal ground floor (thermal mass, insulation and thickness), roof (thermal mass, pitch, structure, overhang length, covering), external window (size, type, glazing thickness and type), azimuth angle (building orientation) and ground floor elevation distance. These parameters were based on Szokolay’s (2014) climatic design principles. The results showed that optimising the south-west Nigerian contemporary envelope under those parameters improved its thermal performance, enabling it to provide indoor thermal comfort in present and future south-west Nigerian climates. Accordingly, this study’s main contribution is the proposal of a free-running climate-responsive south-west Nigerian contemporary house envelope which promotes indoor thermal comfort in present and future climates. It recommends that: 1. without any need for mechanical cooling devices, the specifications of this optimised contemporary house envelope can be used to reform housing design policies in south-west Nigeria, and 2. using the optimised envelope would reduce reliance on mechanical thermal controls and therefore mitigate climate change in the region.

Contrary to highly selected commercial breeds, indigenous domestic breeds are composed of semi-wild or feral populations subjected to reduced levels of artificial selection. As a consequence, many of these breeds have become locally adapted to a wide range of environments, showing high levels of phenotypic variability and increased fitness under natural conditions. Genetic analyses of three loci associated with milk production (alpha(S1)-casein, kappa-casein and prolactin) and the locus BoLA-DRB3 of the major histocompatibility complex indicated that the Argentinean Creole cattle (ACC), an indigenous breed from South America, maintains high levels of genetic diversity and population structure. In contrast to the commercial Holstein breed, the ACC showed considerable variation in heterozygosity (H(e)) and allelic diversity (A) across populations. As expected, bi-allelic markers showed extensive variation in He whereas the highly polymorphic BoLA-DRB3 showed substantial variation in A, with individual populations having 39-74% of the total number of alleles characterized for the breed. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of nine populations throughout the distribution range of the ACC revealed that 91.9-94.7% of the total observed variance was explained by differences within populations whereas 5.3-8.1% was the result of differences among populations. In addition, the ACC breed consistently showed higher levels of genetic differentiation among populations than Holstein. Results from this study emphasize the importance of population genetic structure within domestic breeds as an essential component of genetic diversity and suggest that indigenous breeds may be considered important reservoirs of genetic diversity for commercial domestic species.

Background:The geographic range of the tick Amblyomma americanum, a vector of diseases of public health significance such as ehrlichiosis, has expanded from the southeast of the United States northward during the 20th century. Recently, populations of this tick have been reported to be present close to the Canadian border in Michigan and New York states, but established populations are not known in Canada. Previous research suggests that changing temperature patterns with climate change may influence tick life cycles and permit northward range expansion of ticks in the northern hemisphere.Objectives:We aimed to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick’s range and to investigate the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades.Methods:A simulation model of the tick A. americanum was used, via simulations using climate data from meteorological stations in the United States and Canada, to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick’s range.Results:The predicted geographic scope of temperature suitability [ annual cumulative degree days (DD) ] included most of the central and eastern U.S. states east of longitude 110°W, which is consistent with current surveillance data for the presence of the tick in this region, as well as parts of southern Quebec and Ontario in Canada. Regional climate model output raises the possibility of northward range expansion into all provinces of Canada from Alberta to Newfoundland and Labrador during the coming decades, with the greatest northward range expansion (up to by the year 2100) occurring under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Predicted northward range expansion was reduced by approximately half under the reduced GHG emissions of RCP4.5.Discussion:Our results raise the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades, and conclude that surveillance for this tick, and the diseases it transmits, would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5668

Kazakh white-headed and Auliekol breeds are mostly spread through Kazakhstan and are animals with dual purpose productivity directions including meat and milk. Kazakh native cattle breeds are still largely unexplored based on the genetic markers and are of great interest in the country. In this study, we for the first time applied high-density SNP genotyping for two indigenous cattle breeds to study genetic diversity, population structure and relationships with the different foreign breeds. Using of GGP Bovine 150K SNP array the principal component analysis (PCA), populations estimates of the genetic structure (ADMIXTURE), genetic diversity and distances (Fst), and phylogenetic tree showed that the Kazakh white-headed and Auliekol breeds have certain separate genetic structure that differ from European and Russian cattle breeds The two of these Kazakh cattle breeds have their genetic background according to observed results as distinct breeds. The obtained results will be aided in the development breeding system and conservation programs of the Kazakh white-headed and Auliekol breeds of beef cattle in the Kazakhstan.

Fishery management and conservation of marine species increasingly relies on genetic data to delineate biologically relevant stock boundaries. Unfortunately for high gene flow species which may display low, but statistically significant population structure, there is no clear consensus on the level of differentiation required to resolve distinct stocks. The use of fine-scale neutral and adaptive variation, considered together with environmental data can offer additional insights to this problem. Genome-wide genetic data (4,123 SNPs), together with an independent hydrodynamic particle dispersal model were used to inform farm and fishery management in the Fijian black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera, where comprehensive fishery management is lacking, and the sustainability of exploitation uncertain. Weak fine-scale patterns of population structure were detected, indicative of broad-scale panmixia among wild oysters, while a hatchery-sourced farmed population exhibited a higher degree of genetic divergence (Fst = 0.0850–0.102). This hatchery-produced population had also experienced a bottleneck (NeLD = 5.1; 95% C.I. = [5.1–5.3]); compared to infinite NeLD estimates for all wild oysters. Simulation of larval transport pathways confirmed the existence of broad-scale mixture by surface ocean currents, correlating well with fine-scale patterns of population structuring. Fst outlier tests failed to detect large numbers of loci supportive of selection, with 2–5 directional outlier SNPs identified (average Fst = 0.116). The lack of biologically significant population genetic structure, absence of evidence for local adaptation and larval dispersal simulation, all indicate the existence of a single genetic stock of P. margaritifera in the Fiji Islands. This approach using independent genomic and oceanographic tools has allowed fundamental insights into stock structure in this species, with transferability to other highly-dispersive marine taxa for their conservation and management.

Dongxiang Spotted, Pingxiang Two-End-Black and Yushan Black pigs are three indigenous breeds in Jiangxi Province, China, that have been listed in the national conservation program for Chinese indigenous livestock germplasm. Here, we investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of the nucleus populations of these three breeds in a worldwide context of European and Chinese pigs using Illumina Porcine 60K chips. Our data indicate that Dongxiang Spotted and Yushan Black pigs have recently experienced severe inbreeding. The two breeds show large runs-of-homozygosity values, long-range extents of linkage disequilibrium and reduced observed heterozygosity. In contrast, Pingxiang Two-End-Black pigs are rich in genetic diversity and have few inbred individuals. Both phylogenetic and admixture analyses illustrate that Dongxiang Spotted and Yushan Black pigs are genetically close to their geographical neighbors in East China and that Pingxiang Two-End-Black pigs have a close relationship with three other Two-End-Black breeds in central China. Finally, we reconstructed the family structures of the three breeds and propose a reliable breeding strategy to better conserve these breeds.

IntroductionXinjiang is a region renowned for its rich diversity of native horse breeds, making it one of the most affluent equine genetic resource areas in China. While prized for their high adaptability and tolerance to roughage, the conservation of these native breeds faces challenges from the introduction of external breeds and industrial changes. Furthermore, the unknown population structure of Xinjiang horse breeds has hindered effective conservation efforts.MethodsThis study presents the first comprehensive Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) analysis of seven Xinjiang native horse breeds. We utilized 10X whole-genome sequencing to assess their genetic diversity, population structure, and genetic relationships.ResultsOur findings revealed a high level of population genetic diversity among the Xinjiang native horse breeds. These breeds exhibited significant genetic differentiation from other horse breeds originating from Europe, Central Asia, Western Asia, and other parts of China. Evidence of frequent historical gene flow was detected, particularly among breeds in northern Xinjiang, which were shown to be more closely related to each other.Discussion This study elucidates the distribution patterns, evolutionary characteristics, and substantial genetic diversity of Xinjiang’s native horse breeds. The results provide crucial insights into their unique genetic background and population history. These findings offer valuable theoretical support for establishing core conservation groups of local germplasm, guiding future breeding programs for new cultivars, and further exploration of the characteristics inherent to Xinjiang’s native horse genetic resources.

\n A tropical forage breeding program contains several peculiarities, especially when it involves polyploid species and facultative apomixis. Despite their importance, there is still a lack of information on genetic studies of critical forage traits and on the employment of genomic tools when compared to other crops and temperate forages. The genus Brachiaria is the most important for forage in tropical regions mainly beef production. The commercial species in this genus are excellent perennial forage, and the identification of superior genotypes depends on the selection of many characteristics under complex genetic control, with high cost and time-consuming evaluation. Therefore, the knowledge about uses and applications of classic and genomic tools in forage traits may be useful to support breeding programs and the development of new cultivars. In this context, the aim was to evaluate several different classic and genomic tools to be employed as selection strategies in a traditional tropical forage breeding program. A panel of tetraploid hybrids obtained from crossing Urochloa brizantha x Urochloa ruziziensis was phenotyped and genotyped to evaluate genetic parameters and perform genomic studies. The classic phenotypic analysis showed no clear trend of the importance of additive and non-additive genetics effects for agronomical and nutritional traits. The Mulamba and Mock index should be used in the univariate level, due to the promotion of a more balanced response to selection for all traits in the multivariate selection. In the genomic extraction and evaluations, the reads that were aligned to a \\'mock\\' reference genome, created from GBS data of the cultivar \\'Marandu\\', had more SNP discovered compared to the closest true reference genomes, Setaria viridis and S. italica. We recommended different thresholds of sample depth and genotype quality (GQ) to eliminate poor quality reads without introducing genotype bias. Cross-validation revealed that missing genotypes were imputed with a median accuracy of 0.85 using Random Forest algorithm to produce a complete genotype matrix, regardless of heterozygote frequency. The genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) revealed candidate genes associated with many tropical forage traits across all cutting seasons, which could be the first step toward marker-assisted selection (MAS). Moreover, our results suggest that accounting for allele dosage is essential, since the tetraploid level provided more information about the true biological state. Therefore, our findings revealed the complexity of the genetic architecture of Urochloa spp. traits and provided important insights towards the application of GWAS in polyploids species. The genomic selection analysis revealed that GBLUP-A (additive) and GBLUP-AD (additive + dominance) showed similar prediction abilities considering both single and multi-trait models. Conversely, combining GBLUP-AD and tetraploid information could improve the selection coincidence. Furthermore, the multi-trait validation scheme 2 (VS2), where one trait is not evaluated for some individuals, provided an increment of up to 30% to the prediction ability. Therefore, it is an useful strategy for traits with low heritability. Overall, all genomic selection models considered provided greater genetic gains than the phenotypic selection. Similarly, the allele dosage associated with additive, dominance and multi-trait factors increased the accuracy of genomic prediction models for interspecific polyploid hybrids. Finally, genomic tools should be used in forages breeding programs in order to reduce cost and time.\n

Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive species, and resource over-exploitation are among the major factors driving biodiversity loss and the current global change crisis. Maintaining and restoring connectivity throughout fragmented landscapes is key to reduce habitat isolation and mitigate anthropogenic impacts. To date, few connectivity approaches seek to identify corridors along climate gradients and least transformed natural habitats despite its importance to facilitate dispersal of organisms, as species' ranges shift over time to track suitable climates. In this study, we identified least-cost climatic corridors in Mexico between 2027 old-growth vegetation patches incorporating evapotranspiration as climatic variable, Euclidean distances, and human impact. We identified old-growth vegetation patches using the land use and vegetation map of 2011 (scale 1:250 000) by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Moreover, we calculated a human impact index based on the theoretical framework of the Global Biodiversity Model (Alkemade et al. 2009) but adapted for Mexico (Mexbio, Kolb 2016), and includes the impact of land use, road infrastructure and fragmentation based on the land use and vegetation map of 2011 and a road map by the Mexican Institute of Transportation. We modeled corridors for a baseline period (1980-2009) and under three future time periods (2015-2039, 2045-2069 and 2075-2099), corresponding to four Global Circulation Models (MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-ES and CNRMCM5) each under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) The historical and future evapotranspiration values were calculated using the climate surfaces from Cuervo-Robayo et al. 2019 and from the Center of Atmospheric Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico*1, respectively. The historical and future evapotranspiration values were calculated using the climate surfaces from Cuervo-Robayo et al. 2019 and from the Center of Atmospheric Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, respectively. We used the Turc evapotranspiration equation (Turc 1954) to estimate actual evapotranspiration. Least cost climatic corridors using future climate projections were used to test the assumption that climatic gradients are maintained in the future. We then prioritized climatic corridors using a multicriteria analysis guided by expert knowledge, incorporating factors such as indicators of human impact, vulnerability and exposure to climate change, and priority sites for biodiversity conservation and restoration. On average, more than 4,500 least cost climatic corridors were identified for each scenario. There is a high spatial coincidence in the geographical location of current and future climatic corridors (overlap > 90%). Fewer corridors were identified in the northern part of the country where natural vegetation is less fragmented, whereas in central and southern Mexico landscape fragmentation is greater, resulting in an increased number of corridors (Fig. 1). The use of open spatial data was key in identifying climatic corridors in order to support decision-making. The results provide a spatial guide to implement conservation and restoration actions to promote connectivity, in particular among climatic stable areas, thus supporting the achievement of Aichi Targets and Sustainable Development Goals. Also, it informs multiple stakeholders and sectors in land-use planning decisions and to promote the alignment of existing incentives to reduce habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation in key areas needed to maintain and recover landscape connectivity in the face of global change.

Fire-killed serotinous trees are often dominant species in fire-prone regions with contrasting wet and dry seasons. We studied a serotinous fire-killed conifer (Callitris preissii, Cupressaceae) to identify the influence of fire regime and climate on geographic variation in level of serotiny, recruitment and population structure. We measured population size distributions, seedling recruitment and level of serotiny for sample stands across a climatic gradient from mesic coastal (including two islands) to semi-arid inland sites in SW Australia. Trees on islands were mostly non-serotinous and were only weakly serotinous on the adjacent mainland in the higher rainfall West coast region. In the semi-arid Goldfields and South inland, and the higher rainfall South coast region, trees were more strongly serotinous with up to six cohorts of closed cones retained on trees. Level of serotiny was stronger at the drier end of the climatic gradient where severe to extreme fire danger weather occurs most frequently, and where vegetation type (e.g., shrublands) supports frequent crown-type, stand-replacing fires. Recruitment was most abundant post-fire in all regions, but seedlings also established inter-fire where there was regular seed fall due to low level of serotiny or spontaneous release of seeds from old cones on trees with a high cone load. Population structures for mainland stands shifted from approximately reverse-J (indicating continuous recruitment) in mesic regions to mainly unimodal (establishment mostly after fire) in drier, inland regions, although some long-unburned inland stands showed occasional inter-fire recruitment, likely linked to high rainfall years. Unimodal population structures characterized islands, where previous studies have identified herbivory on seedlings by refugial populations of native macropods as a limiting factor on inter-fire establishment. Understanding landscape context, response to disturbance, biotic interactions and reproductive traits of dominant species is essential in conservation planning in a rapidly changing global environment.

Integrating climate and satellite remote sensing data for predicting county-level wheat yield in China using machine learning methods

In order to investigate the effect of different irrigation intervals and plant densities on yield and yield components of two fennel landraces, an experiment was conducted at the agricultural research station, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad in 2003 and 2004. For this purpose a double split plot experiment based on a Complete Randomized Block Design with three replications was used. Treatments included three irrigation intervals (10, 20 and 30 days), two fennel landraces (Khorasan and Kerman) and four plant densities (40, 50, 67 and 100 plant per m2). Row spaces were kept constant (25 cm) and plant density were adjusted in row spaces. Results indicated that irrigation affected vegetative and reproductive organs, significantly. With increasing irrigation intervals, plant height, dry matter of stem, total dry matter of plant, lateral branches per m2, umbels per m2, umbels per plant, fertile umbels per main stem, umbels per lateral branch, umbelets per umbel, 1000-seed weight and grain yield were decreased, but main branches per m2 and grain number per umbelet did not show a constant trend. Khorasan landrace had more plant height and 1000-seed weight than Kerman landrace, but main branches per m2, lateral branches per m2, umbels per m2, umbels per main branch, umbelets per umbel, grain number per umbelet and grain yield in Kerman landrace were higher than Khorasan landrace. Two landraces showed no differences in dry matter of stem weight, total dry matter of plant, umbels per plant and umbels per lateral branch. With increasing plant density, umbels per plant, umbels per main branch, umbelets per umbel and grain number per umbelet decreased, significantly. Density had no significant effect on 1000-seed weight. With increasing density, dry matter of stem, total dry matter of plant, main branches per m2, lateral branches per m2, umbels per m2 and grain yield increased, but umbels per lateral branch showed no constant trand. Our results showed that the maximum grain yield was obtained in Kerman landrace with 10 days irrigation interval and 100 plants per m2.

The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of six Ethiopian cattle breeds. Illumina's Bovine HD BeadChip was used to genotype 76 DNA samples from indigenous cattle breeds, which were named after their regions of origin, namely Benishangul (n = 12), Fogera (n = 11), Gindeberet (n = 19), Gofa (n = 10), Nuer (n = 13), and Sheko (n = 11). Additionally, two comparative European breeds, namely Holstein Friesian (n = 15) and Jersey (n = 15), were included in the analysis as outgroups. The relatively high within breed genetic diversity of the European and the Ethiopian indigenous cattle breeds was clearly evidenced by their allelic richness (1.747–1.879), effective number of alleles (1.437–1.522), observed heterozygosity (0.271–0.313), nucleotide diversity (0.264–0.315), and inbreeding coefficients (−0.025–0.051). Wright's fixation index FST and identity-by-state genetic distance revealed considerable genetic distinctiveness of the Ethiopian indigenous cattle compared to the European breeds. The FST values between Ethiopian cattle breeds were at the low side of the range (less than 0.03). The lowest FST values (0.002) were found between Benishangul, Fogera and Gindeberet, and the highest between Sheko and the other five Ethiopian breeds. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that the Ethiopian indigenous cattle breeds have maintained a high level of within-population genetic differentiation (explaining 97% of the molecular variability), the remainder being accounted for by differentiation among breeds (3%). The geographical distances and the FST values had a moderate positive correlation coefficient (0.283). The inter-breed comparisons and structure analysis clearly revealed that Sheko and Nuer were quite separate from the other indigenous breeds and that Benishangul, Fogera, Gindeberet and Gofa are genetically very closely related breeds. Their genetic closeness could be due to high within breed genetic variability, due to a common ancestor, or because of lack of selection intensity. Our results, particularly for the Benishangul, Gindeberet, Gofa and Nuer breeds, are to our knowledge the first of this kind and could be used as a foundation for further investigations of breed characterization or for the design of conservation strategies.

Analysis of genetic diversity and genetic structure of indigenous chicken populations in Guizhou province based on genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism markers

Under the background of global warming, the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events in the maize growing season in northeast China are increasing. In order to clarify the occurrence characteristics of extreme meteorological events in northeast China, this study focused on three extreme agrometeorological events, i.e., high temperatures, drought, and the compound events of high-temperature and drought during the maize growing season (May-September), impacting maize production. Based on historical (1981-2017) and future (2021-2060) climate data, we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of these three events with different intensities in northeast China. The results indicated that slight high-temperatures and moderate and severe droughts occurred more frequently in the study area during the historical period. The frequency of the different grades of the compound events of high-temperature and drought will exhibit an increasing trend in the future, as will the frequency of the compound events of high-temperature and drought. This is particularly evident in the northwest of the study area. The compound events of high-temperature and drought mainly occurred in late July and early August, encompassing the flowering stage of maize varieties. It is important to identify the area and time of major extreme weather events to implement the necessary preventive measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.