Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity—An Observational Study

The study of the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is subject to uncertainty in historical datasets, especially in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, where conflicting results have been found with the TC datasets archived in different organizations. In this study the basinwide TC intensity in the WNP basin is derived dynamically with a TC intensity model, based on the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamically derived TC intensity is compared to the three datasets and used to investigate trends in TC intensity. The associated contributions of changes in SST, vertical wind shear, and prevailing tracks are also examined. The evolution of the basinwide TC intensity in the JTWC best-track dataset can be generally reproduced over the period 1975–2007. Dynamically derived data based on the JTWC, RSMC, and STI track datasets all show an increasing trend in the peak intensity and frequency of intense typhoons, mainly because of the combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear. This study suggests that the increasing intensity trend in the JTWC dataset is real, but that it may be overestimated. In contrast, the TC intensity trends in the RSMC and STI intensity datasets are dynamically inconsistent. Numerical simulations also suggest that the frequency of intense typhoons is more sensitive to changes in SST and vertical wind shear than the peak and average intensities defined in previous studies.

Hurricane Gustav was one of two major hurricanes that occurred in the Atlantic basin during the 2008 hurricane season. The storm caused more than $6 billion U. S. dollars of damage in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico from 25 August 2008 to 5 September 2008. The greatest amount of damage and highest number of casualties produced by the storm can be attributed to the rapid intensification of the hurricane. Rapid intensification (RI) of a tropical cyclone is defined as an increase in maximum sustained winds by 15.4 m s⁻¹ (30 kts) in a continuous 24 h period. Between 1200 UTC 29 August and 2200 UTC 30 August, the minimum pressure of Gustav decreased by 48 hPa and the maximum sustained winds increased by 80 kts from a tropical storm to a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This increase in intensity exceeds the definition of RI. Traditionally, the parameters of ocean heat content, vertical wind shear, and atmospheric moisture content have been evaluated to assess changes in tropical cyclone intensity. Kaplan and DeMaria (2003) have shown that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in excess of 28.4°C and low vertical wind shear values (approximately 5 m s⁻¹) are conducive for RI. A moist atmosphere (i.e., high values of relative humidity) also signals an atmospheric environment conducive to tropical cyclone intensification. The SST field from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation 1/4° Daily SST Analysis (NOAA-OISST) dataset was used to assess the ocean heat content in the vicinity of the storm during its lifespan. Data from the initialization of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) was used to evaluate 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear, 850-700 hPa layer averaged relative humidity, and 200 hPa divergence. Lightning flash data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) is used to investigate the role of convection in the RI of the storm. The SST and atmospheric relative humidity fields in the vicinity of Hurricane Gustav were conducive to the storm's intensification, but values of vertical wind shear in the vicinity of the storm were greater than 10 m s⁻¹, a magnitude typical of tropical cyclone weakening. A convective band formed 12 h prior to the onset of the storm's RI, which led to the broadening of a 200-hPa divergent area in the vicinity of the storm. It is hypothesized that the broadening of this area allowed for

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is controlled by both environmental factors and its internal structure. This paper investigates the influence of inner core features derived from satellite data on TC intensity changes and explores effective methods to improve TC intensity forecast accuracy. We construct models for forecasting TC intensity over the next 5 days using the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) algorithm in the northwestern Pacific. The models integrate climatological and persistence predictors, large-scale environmental variables at the initial time, inner core features extracted from satellite data, and variables related to the forecasted TC location. The models are trained on TC data from 2005 to 2019, tested using best track data from 2020 to 2022 and real-time data in 2023. Results show that the inner core features derived from satellite data are helpful for intensity forecasts within 36 h, and variables related to the forecasted location are helpful for improving TC intensity forecast accuracy in most cases, especially for the forecasts beyond 48 h. Compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models, our models demonstrate 4%–48% and 19%–70% decreases in mean absolute errors (MAEs) in real-time intensity forecasts. The most important predictors identified include potential future intensity change, intensity changes during the previous 12 h, vertical wind shear, and sea–land ratio. The inner core feature extracted from satellite data is also among the top 10 important variables for short-time intensity forecasts. Significance Statement This study advances tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting by integrating climatological and persistence predictors, large-scale environmental variables at the initial time, satellite-derived inner core features, and variables related to the forecasted TC location into the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) models. Our models significantly improve forecast accuracy, reducing mean absolute errors by 4%–48% compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and 19%–70% compared with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Results denote that the inner core features improve the intensity prediction in the short time, and variables related to the forecasted TC location improve the intensity forecasts in most cases, especially for the forecasts beyond 48 h. This study provides valuable insights for enhancing operational TC intensity forecasting.

The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905–980 hPa). The results confirm that a scenario (e.g., global warming) in which the upper troposphere warms relative to the surface will have less TC intensification than one with a uniform warming with height. The TC rainfall is also investigated for the SST–stability parameter space. Rainfall increases for combinations of SST increase and increasing stability similar to global warming scenarios, consistent with climate change TC downscaling studies with the GFDL model. The forecast system’s sensitivity to vertical shear was also investigated. The idealized model simulations showed weak disturbances dissipating under strong easterly and westerly shear of 10 m s−1. A small bias for greater intensity under easterly sheared versus westerly sheared environments was found at lower values of SST. The impact of vertical shear on intensity was different when a strong vortex was used in the simulations. In this case, none of the initial disturbances weakened, and most intensified to some extent.

This study introduces a Lagrangian diagnostic of the secondary circulation of tropical cyclones (TCs), here defined by those trajectories that contribute to latent heat release in the region of high inertial stability of the TC core. This definition accounts for prominent asymmetries and transient flow features. Trajectories are mapped from the three-dimensional physical space to the (two dimensional) entropy–temperature space. The mass flux vector in this space subsumes the thermodynamic characteristics of the secondary circulation. The Lagrangian diagnostic is then employed to further analyze the impact of vertical wind shear on TCs in previously published idealized numerical experiments. One focus of this analysis is the classification and quantitative depiction of different pathways of environmental interaction based on thermodynamic properties of trajectories at initial and end times. Confirming results from previous work, vertical shear significantly increases the intrusion of low–equivalent potential temperature () air into the eyewall through the frictional inflow layer. In contrast to previous ideas, vertical shear decreases midlevel ventilation in these experiments. Consequently, the difference in eyewall between the no-shear and shear experiments is largest at low levels. Vertical shear, however, significantly increases detrainment from the eyewall and modifies the thermodynamic signature of the outflow layer. Finally, vertical shear promotes the occurrence of a novel class of trajectories that has not been described previously. These trajectories lose entropy at cold temperatures by detraining from the outflow layer and subsequently warm by 10–15 K. Further work is needed to investigate in more detail the relative importance of the different pathways for TC intensity change and to extend this study to real atmospheric TCs.

This article explores the relationship between vertical wind shear (VWS) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Mozambique Channel (MC) for the period 1979–2019. Additionally, SST, low-level relative vorticity, 700 hPa relative humidity and upper-level divergence were also analyzed for the peak cyclogenesis months to explore their relative contributions. The analyses were done using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1 for the atmospheric fields, monthly Optimum Interpolation SST V2, and for the cyclogenesis the TC best track data from the La Reunion–Regional Specialized Meteorological and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. A total of 43 TCs generated in the MC were observed for the analysed period. The maximum frequency of cyclogenesis in the MC was observed during January and February and the spatial location of maximum TC genesis was coincident with the minimum values of the VWS. The VWS showed significant correlations with TC intensity, particularly when considering the upper atmosphere (200–500 hPa) or the bulk (200–850 hPa) VWS. The mean composites of the cyclogenesis months over the MC of SST, relative humidity at 700 hPa, divergence at upper atmosphere, showed significant values. However, linear correlations between these factors vs. TC genesis frequency and intensity were not significant. Analyses of interannual correlations between VWS and Niño-3.4 (subtropical southwest Indian Ocean dipole-SIOD) showed statistically significant positive (negative) correlations at different lags, suggesting that La Niña and the positive phase of SIOD conditions are favorable to weaker VWS and thus to intensification of TCs in the Mozambique Channel. Thirteen landfall cases were observed with seven over the Madagascar west coast and six over the Mozambique coast. The landfall over the Madagascar (Mozambique) coast was associated with strengthened (weakened) VWS.

Decrease of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the western North Pacific since 1960s

The present study examines the dynamics of mid-tropospheric vortex during cyclogenesis and quantifies the importance of such vortex developments in the intensification of tropical cyclone. The genesis of tropical cyclones are investigated based on two most widely accepted theories that explain the mechanism of cyclone formation namely ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ dynamics. The Weather Research and Forecast model is employed to generate high resolution dataset required for analysis. The development of the mid-level vortex was analyzed with regard to the evolution of potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity (RV) and vertical wind shear. Two tropical cyclones which include the developing cyclone, Hudhud and the non-developing cyclone, Helen are considered. Further, Hudhud and Helen, is compared to a deep depression formed over Bay of Bengal to highlight the significance of the mid-level vortex in the genesis of a tropical cyclone. Major results obtained are as follows: stronger positive PV anomalies are noticed over upper and lower levels of troposphere near the storm center for Hudhud as compared to Helen and the depression; Constructive interference in upper and lower level positive PV anomaly maxima resulted in the intensification of Hudhud. For Hudhud, the evolution of RV follows ‘top-down’ dynamics, in which the growth starts from the middle troposphere and then progresses downwards. As for Helen, RV growth seems to follow ‘bottom-up’ mechanism initiating growth from the lower troposphere. Though, the growth of RV for the depression initiates from mid-troposphere, rapid dissipation of mid-level vortex destabilizes the system. It is found that the formation mid-level vortex in the genesis phase is significantly important for the intensification of the storm.

Recent idealized simulations have shown that a system of binary tropical cyclones (TCs) induces vertical wind shear (VWS) in each TC, which can subsequently modify the tracks of these TCs through asymmetric diabatic heating. This study investigates these three-dimensional effects in the western North Pacific using the best track and ERA5 reanalysis data. The TC motion was found to deviate systematically from the steering flow. The direction of deviation is clockwise and repelling with respect to the midpoint of the binary TCs with a separation distance of more than 1000 km. The large-scale upper-level anticyclonic and lower-level cyclonic circulations serve as the VWS for each TC in a manner consistent with the idealized simulations. The VWS of a TC tends to be directed to the rear-left quadrant from the direction of the counterpart TC, where the maxima of rainfall and diabatic heating are observed. The potential vorticity budget analysis shows that the actual TC motion is modulated by the diabatic heating asymmetry that offsets the counterclockwise and approaching motion owing to horizontal advection when the separation distance of the binary TCs is 1000–2000 km. With a small separation distance (<1000 km), horizontal advection becomes significant, but the impact of diabatic heating asymmetry is not negligible. The abovementioned features are robust, while there are some dependencies on the TC intensities, size, circulation, duration, and geographical location. This research sheds light on the motion of binary TCs that has not been previously explained by a two-dimensional barotropic framework.

Using primitive equations with adiabatic, non‐friction non‐environmental steering, the dynamical equilibrium features of tropical cyclones (TC) are investigated. The parameter, dI/dt, was obtained and its dynamical balance formulation describing TC intensity change. The results of the we discussed the characteristics of TC motion and intensity change in barotropic and baroclinic model showed that the stationary motion of TC possess “equivalent‐geostrophic equilibrium” and isolines of potential vorticity and E(E = φ + (u2 + v2)/2) coincide with streamlines. The TC intensity will be weakened by “ventilation flow” in “beta (β) gyres” and “shear gyres” from the positive (negative) wind vertical shear at high‐ (low‐) level. The positive (negative) vorticity vertical convection of high‐ (low‐) level strengthens TC intensity. Generally, the TC center has the tendency to drift poleward and there is a gradient (ascendent) direction of vorticity vertical convection at high‐ (low‐) level. The TC motion is connected with the asymmetry structure of vertical shear and vertical motion, the “γ effect” (γ = ∂β/∂y) that is one of the dynamical mechanisms of “ventilation flow” steering TC center motion.

The typical synoptic flow patterns and environmental factors that favor the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) have been identified based on all TCs formed in the SCS between 1981 and 2011. The quantity RI is defined as the 24-h increase in maximum sustained surface wind speed by 15 m s−1 as in previous studies, which is close to the 95th percentile of 24-h intensity change of all SCS samples excluding those after landfall. There are 4.9% (2.3%) of tropical depressions (tropical storms) that experienced RI. No typhoons satisfied the RI threshold. Six low-level synoptic flow patterns favoring RI have been identified based on 18 RI cases. In the monsoon season very few TCs experience RI due to large vertical wind shear (VWS). Most RI cases occurred in the postmonsoon season when the midlatitude troughs often penetrated into the SCS whereas the southwesterly monsoon flow is still strong in the southern SCS. Compared with those of non-RI cases, the mean initial conditions of RI cases include weak VWS and relatively strong forcing from midlatitude troughs. Several criteria of significant environmental factors for RI are statistically identified based on all TC samples. It is found that 16 non-RI TCs fitted in the RI flow patterns but only two of them satisfy all the criteria, suggesting that a combination of the synoptic flow pattern and the environmental factors can be used to predict RI in the SCS. In addition, two RI cases involving TC–trough interaction are analyzed.

A tropical cyclone intensity prediction model using conditional generative adversarial network

The impact of vertical wind shear on the sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis to environmental rotation and thermodynamic state is investigated through idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of the intensification of an incipient vortex. With vertical shear, tropical cyclones intensify faster with a higher Coriolis parameter, f, irrespective of the environmental thermodynamic state. The vertical shear develops a vertically tilted vortex, which undergoes a precession process with the midlevel vortices rotating cyclonically around the surface center. With a higher f, the midlevel vortices are able to rotate continuously against the vertical shear, leading to the realignment of the tilted vortex and rapid intensification. With a lower f, the rotation is too slow such that the midlevel vortices are advected away from the surface center and the intensification is suppressed. The parameter, χb, measuring the effect from the low‐entropy downdraft air on the boundary layer entropy, is found to be a good indicator of the environmental thermodynamic favorability for tropical cyclogenesis in vertical shear. Without vertical shear, tropical cyclones are found to intensify faster with a lower f by previous studies. We show this dependency on f is sensitive to the environmental thermodynamic state. The thermodynamical favorability for convection can be measured by χm, which estimates the time it takes for surface fluxes to moisten the midtroposphere. A smaller χm not only leads to a faster intensification due to a shorter period for moist preconditioning of the inner region but also neutralizes the faster intensification with a lower f due to enhanced peripheral convection.

2012年强台风“天秤”的强度出现了“三起三落”的变化。在此过程中，既有高海温、弱垂直切变、强水汽辐合和强降水等有利于台风增强的因素作用，也有低海温、强垂直切变、弱水汽辐合和弱降水、陆地影响等抑制台风强度的因素发生；台风强度变化则依赖其中的主导因素。同时，另一个台风“布拉万”对水汽的争夺也影响了“天秤”强度。分析表明：环境风垂直切变大小的变化总是超前(6~12小时)于台风强度的改变，因此它对台风的强弱有一定的预示作用；当“天秤”缓慢移动时候，其路径后产生了海表温度显著下降的现象。 Typhoon “Tembin” (2012) had a protean intensity change. By using multiple observational data, the preliminary factors are identified which have influence on the typhoon intensity changes. And typhoon’s impact on the sea surface temperature (SST) is also analyzed. During the intensity change stages, the intensifications of typhoon were associated with the high sea surface temperature, weak vertical shear, strong moisture convergence and heavy rainfall. In contrast, the depressions of typhoon were associated with the low sea surface temperature, strong vertical shear, weak moisture convergence, heavy rainfall and drag effect by Taiwan Island. Besides, the vicinal typhoon “Bolaven” absorbed the mass of water vapor from “Tembin”, which in turn weakened the Typhoon Tembin. Furthermore, the change of environmental vertical wind shear is always leading to the change of typhoon’s intensity, so it may be a precursor of typhoon’s intensity change. Finally, there was significant SST cooling on the track after Tembin’s passage, especially when its moving speed was very slow.

The spatial distribution of trends in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) during the period 1977–2010 was examined using five TC datasets. The spatial distribution of the TC intensity was expressed by seasonally averaged maximum wind speeds in 5° × 5° horizontal grids. The trends showed a spatial inhomogeneity, with a weakening in the tropical Philippine Sea (TP) and a strengthening in southern Japan and its southeastern ocean (SJ). This distribution could be described by TC intensification rate and genesis frequency, with the aid of the climatological direction of TC movement. The increasing intensification rate around the center of the WNP could mostly account for the increasing intensity over the SJ region, while the influence of both intensification rate and local genesis frequency mattered in the TP region because of the effect of the newly generated and less-developed weak TCs on the TC intensity. Thermodynamic variables (e.g., sea surface temperature, potential intensity, and 26°C isotherm depth) showed almost homogeneous changes in space, possibly favoring intensification rate and genesis frequency over the entire WNP. However, the decreasing intensification rate and genesis frequency in some tropical regions conflicted with the impact of thermodynamic variables; rather, they were in accord with the impact of dynamic variables (i.e., vorticity and wind shear). In conclusion, the spatially inhomogeneous trends in TC intensity could be explained by considering the thermodynamic and dynamic aspects in combination through intensification rate and genesis frequency.