Evaluation Cost Over-Run in Construction of CFSPP EPC Contract:

Cost overruns problem is still a critical issue despite many improvements are being made in the management of construction projects. Therefore, this research aims to identify the main causes of cost overruns in construction industry in developing countries and to make a critical analysis with the ones in the United Kingdom. In addition, some existing studies regarding cost estimation and cost overruns have been reviewed by the authors. In order to carry that out, in this research the authors used a secondary data collection such as books, journals, international standard and some Internet information through few search engines, like Google scholar, Science direct, Emerald Insight etc. Besides that, a qualitative research method has been used to review considerable number of books, articles, website, journals etc. In the findings, it has been concluded that the major common causes of cost overruns in construction projects in developing countries and in the United Kingdom were: change in design, inflation, increasing of the material’s price, project complexity, change in the project scope and inadequate contract and procurement method. The reasons behind each of these factors and how to minimize them have been critically explained.

A Fuzzy-bayesian Model for Risk Assessment in Power Plant Projects

Cost overruns in power plant projects frequently occur, and this very alarming phenomenon requires proper risk assessment and management in the early phase of power plant project development. A modified fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) was developed and the critical risks in different phases of thermal power plant project were identified. Further, a novel fuzzy canonical model (FCM) was developed and the complex causal risk-networks were modelled to understand the root causes of cost overruns. The benefits of this research to practitioners are such that it provides greater understanding of the risks involved in power plant projects and sound analytical methods to asses the risks.

Several studies have been carried out to investigate the causes of project cost overrun in different industries worldwide. This paper reports on the results of a study investigating the factors causing project cost overrun in Oman. Data required for this study were collected from 44 project engineers and managers of client and contracting companies involved in telecommunications projects. According to the analysis of results, 14 out of 37 factors are identified as major causes of project cost overrun. While most of the identified factors could affect any types of projects carried out in any country, one of the factors, namely lengthy tendering process might be unique to the projects carried out in Oman. Moreover, this study investigates the association between company size in terms of number of employees and causes of project cost overrun. The results show that there is no strong evidence to suggest that the causes of cost overrun differ significantly according to company size.

Globally, power projects are prone to cost overrun projects. Within the body of knowledge, previous studies have paid less attention to predicting the cost overruns to assist contingency cost planning. Particularly, in thermal power plant projects (TPPPs), the enormous risks involved in their delivery undermine the accuracy of cost overrun prediction. To prevent cost overrun in thermal power plant projects, these risks need to be accounted for by employing sophisticated cost overrun prediction techniques. This study aims to develop a hybrid predictive-probabilistic-based model (HPPM) that integrates a genetic programming technique with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The HPPM was proposed based on the data collected from TPPPs in Bangladesh. Also, the sensitivity of the HPPM was examined to identify the critical risks in cost overruns simulation. The simulation outcomes show that 40.48% of a project’s initial estimated budget was the most probable to cost overrun, while the maximum cost overrun will not exceed 75% with 90% confidence. Practically, the analysis will sensitize project managers to emphasize thermal plants’ budget accuracy not only at the initial project delivery phase but throughout the project life cycle. Theoretically, the HPPM could be employed for cost overrun prediction in other types of power plant projects.

Steam Power Plant is the backbone of electricity sector in Indonesia. Steam Power Plants supply 27.5 GW to the grid, in which 90% of them is coal fired. Today, several Coal Fired Steam Power Plants face a supply problem; consequently, they must procure lower quality of coal. One of them is XYZ Coal Fired Steam Power Plant. Even if there are four candidates of provider to supply coal for a minimum 10 years, it is necessary to make assessment about the effects of coal switching on equipment. The risk assessment focuses on effects of each coal sample on equipment in plant site, especially the equipment closely related to firing process, i.e., boiler, electrostatic precipitator (ESP), and Seawater Flue Gas Desulfurization (SWFGD). Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is employed to map problem and problem root in equipment. Risk analysis and evaluation use House of Risk (HOR), meanwhile Net Present Value (NPV) is used to evaluate financial traits. HOR analysis shows one environmental factor, i.e., emission, becomes the highest risk as each coal has high ash content; hence it is necessary to improve emission control. Three of four candidates show high NPV values suitable for the company to maximize profitability.

The general objective of this research study was to analyse project completion failures in road construction industry. This is a case study of Kafue Mazabuka Road. Specific objectives of the study were to; assess factors that lead to project failure in road construction industry, analyze how time affect road construction projects among contractors, determine how project costing affect road construction projects and identify changes in government policy on road construction. Using the case study research design, this study focused on acquisition of quantitative and qualitative data from a cross-section of people involved in the road construction sector. In consonance with the mixed method design, interview schedule, interview guide and observation checklist were developed to collect the primary data from the field. These instruments were chosen because they are the most appropriate. The interview schedule was used because of its known advantages of building good rapport, creating a relaxed and healthy atmosphere in which respondents easily cooperate, answer questions, and clear misapprehension about any aspect of a study. The data that was collected from the field was cross-checked and edited to ensure that there are no mistakes in the responses and the information given is relevant. The data was then coded and fed into the computer. The Statistical Product for Service Solutions (SPSS version 16) was employed to process and analyze the interview schedules. The in-depth interviews will be analyzed manually. Three reasons were highly emphasized from the response. The first which accounted for 30% was lack of monitoring, secondly, poor scheduling accounted for 20%. The third as indicated by the majority was poor planning 50%. The researcher sought to analyze how time affects road construction projects among contractors. As such the findings below show that time needs to be considered because it its part of scheduling 47%. 20% said it is an importance factor in networking diagrams whilst 33% said it is an important element in planning. Time and cost are considered to be the most crucial factors that contribute to the success of a project, and in reality are the only factors on which everything hinges, and are the most critical factor in the decision on whether a project commences or is shelved. The following are the recommendations; It would not be accurate to identify the causes of cost overrun for a specific country from global literature only. Out of those causes, seven factors were recognized as factors that make the most significant effect on the cost of construction projects in general, namely (1) project management, (2) risk assessment, (3) cost-benefit analysis, (4) construction management, (5) time overrun (6) decision making, (7) design/ methodology/ approach. These must be studied separately. One of the potential solutions to reduce the effect of cost overrun in construction projects is the embedding of an effective resources (human, technical, and material) management system within construction projects as it seems that most of the causes of cost overrun are related to and external stakeholders is a very important task to deliver projects successfully and reduce cost overrun. Training is important to project teams. Finally, the risk is more important in construction megaprojects to identify these causes beforehand so that the team can take necessary actions to prevent them or reduce the effect of the risk. Therefore, a proper risk assessment at the beginning of the project is essential to identify these causes.

The vulnerability of the power generation industries vulnerability to the availability of water is widespread and growing. In this regard, water footprint (WF) is one method to assess this challenge. The present study conducts the WF of a naphtha-fired combined cycle power plant (CCPP) and a coal-fired steam power plant (CSPP). For carrying out WF, it is prudent to look after water consumption during operations and the supply chain stages. Hence, in this regard, two methods have been adopted to investigate the WF of both power plants. The first method deals with the water balance mass diagram (direct WF), and the second method deals with the water supply chain (indirect WF). Evaporation loss appears to be a significant contributing factor to the direct WF. On the other hand, operational WF seems to be an essential contributing factor to indirect WF. Furthermore, the result also shows that specific water consumption in CSPP is 3.54 m3/h, whereas, in CCPP, it is 0.9 m3/h. Finally, some methods have also been suggested to reduce WF in both power plants.

On-time completion and conformity with assigned cost of every project are the most important factors in the success of project plans. Cost overruns and time overrun (delays) have been critical problems of many projects around the world in general and in South Africa in particular. The main objectives of this research are to assess the dominant causes of cost and time overruns, identifying possible and practical measures that can minimize overruns in office building construction projects around eThekwini Municipal area of Kwazulu-Natal. These objectives are achieved through the implementation of the research methodologies that are mainly literature review and questionnaire survey conducted to identify and evaluate the significant factors contributing to delay and cost overruns within the projects of interest. A review of literature identified eighty-five variables for delay, grouped in nine major categories and nine variables for cost overruns ranked in their order of importance in three sets based on the responses from the professionals working for the client, consultants and contractors. The agreement among the sets of rankings for delay and cost overruns has also been tested using statistical methods. The result indicates that there is strong agreement on ranking the importance of the individual variables of delay and cost overruns between parties. From each of the three sets of rankings, the twenty most important variables of delay and the three most important variables of cost overrun are identified as critical. Based on overall results, the top five most important causes are contractor’s cash flow problems, delay in progress payments by the client, poor site supervision and management by contractor, inefficient quality control by the contractor during construction leading to rework due to errors, and contractor’s difficulties in financing the project. Out of the 20 most important delay causing variables, three are found to be common between all parties. These are delay in progress payments by the client, delay in delivery and late ordering of material, and insufficient skill of labour. Furthermore, the study reveals that all stakeholders of construction parties are deeply involved in contributing to the causes of the problems. Thus, in order to eliminate or minimize cost and time extension of office construction projects in the eThekwini Municipal area, a joint effort based on teamwork is essential through effective project planning, controlling and monitoring which boils down to putting in place best practice construction project management.

Among the key factors to take into consideration before the execution of any project is time, cost and quality. Most projects meet Quality and sometimes time but cost management is a real question in the implementation of many construction projects in the world. Poor management of the cost causes the delay of many road construction projects in the world too. In this paper literature review has been conducted to identify different factors that contribute to cost management both positive and negative ones. Different factors were identified that contributed to poor management of cost in highway construction projects such as force majeure factors like weather conditions, political matters and other factors like change in design, change of scope, conflict among the stakeholders, poor leadership, incompetence of project manager and subcontractors, in Tanzania from the literature perspective the challenge of cost overrun is very critical as insisted by different authors in their researches. Most of the projects deviate from their planned budget by even more than 50%. Apart from all causes of cost overrun, delay in these projects is the critical problem which causes the cost increase, the problem of delay is critical in both developing and developed countries, hence mitigating the factors discussed in this paper will minimize the problem of delays and cost overrun too although further research is required in this area to come up with proper mitigation measures to minimize the problem of cost overrun in road construction projects in Tanzania.

The total amount of cost overruns for any construction project can be fully determined once the project is completed. Estimating the amount of cost overruns at different stages of ongoing construction projects is important for project success. There is, however, a dearth of research for this exercise. This article reports the results of an investigative study on cost overruns for ongoing building projects in Abuja. The quantitative technique was adopted in this study. The investigation included ongoing building-construction projects within Abuja, from which a sample of 30 building projects (public and private) was purposively selected (project value of ZAR100 million and above). The data were sourced from the archival records (drawings, bills of quantities, project progress reports, and specifications) on the issues relating to the costs and duration of building projects. The data were analysed using descriptive (percentages) and inferential methods. The results revealed that the percentage of cost overruns ranged from a minimum of 5.56% with 90% project completion, and within 88% of the estimated time limit, to a maximum of 216.08% with merely 5% project completion, and within 8.3% of the estimated time limit. The entire projects had average cost overruns of 44.46%, with an average project completion of 52.4%, and within 91.4% of the average estimated time limit. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that continuous investigation into, and analyses of cost overruns at stages of building projects would encourage professionals to apply the best mitigation measures, in order to achieve a significant reduction in the total cost overrun at the completion of a project. Construction professionals should be well informed of these consequences (cost overruns) at an early stage, in order to evaluate the extent to which these consequences could be minimised.

Project complexity is usually considered as one of the main causes of cost overruns, resulting in poor performance and thus project failure. However, empirical studies focused on evaluating its effects on project cost remain lacking. Given this circumstance, this study attempts to develop the relationship between project cost and the multidimensional project complexity elements. The study assumes complexity as a multidimensional factor including the task, organization, market, legal, and environment complexities. And it adopts an empirical evidence‐based structural model to account for the relationships between project cost and project complexity. By doing so, a quantitative assessment of multidimensional project complexity has been developed. The findings suggest that task and organization complexities have direct effects on project cost, while market, legal, and external environment complexities have indirect effects on project cost. The practical contribution is that the findings can improve the understanding of which dimension of complexity significantly influences project cost and the need to focus efforts on strategically addressing those complexities.

A review of the literature supports the inclusion of sufficient contingency to cover risks in construction projects. From the client’s point of view, too much contingency may result in a project being aborted or uneconomical and too little may lead to cost escalation if the risk occurs. Risk factors at the construction phase causing cost overruns will be identified and an accurate method for estimation of contingency sum will be determined. Qualitative interviews were conducted with five expert practitioners working in a public works department in Zambia to determine how the contingency sum is estimated and what risk factors are considered. Multiple regression analysis was conducted using cost and risks data collected from 30 building and refurbishment projects recently completed in the department. The qualitative study found that project budget overruns constitute a major issue. The regression analysis results proved that the contingency sum was positively correlated to the estimated contract sum. The qualitative interview results and Pearson correlation coefficient showed there was also a positive correlation between contingency sum and project complexity, although such factor needs to be further reaffirmed by regression analysis using a larger sample size. To enhance project success in terms of cost, it is necessary that project managers should actively implement risk management in projects when calculating the contingency sum. Related project-specific risks should be identified and multiple regression method can be used to predict the contingency fund accordingly.

Energy and exergy analysis and optimization of Kalina cycle coupled with a coal fired steam power plant

PT. PLN (Persero) is Indonesia state-owned company engaged in the electricity sector. In serving the needs of electricity in Indonesia, about 49.91% power plant is a Coal Fired Steam Power Plant (PLTU). To maintain coal operations, PLN has an rregulation to maintain the average coal stock limit of 22–26 days of operation; in addition PLN has also conduct a Coal Online Application (BBO) which records coal stock conditions in each power plant. Even though PLN have already create a regulations and online applications to monitor the power plants, coal stocks in several power plants are still experiencing a stock crisis caused by volatility in coal power plant needs due to changing capacity factor (CF) and specific fuel consumption (SFC). Therefore PLN need a model to estimate coal demand at the power plant so that it can help mmanagement make decisions early before the stock crisis.This study predicts coal consumption from time series CF data, SFC data; coal received and coal consumption taken from BBO applications for the period 2013 to 2017. The algorithm used is a hybrid between the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The results of applying data mining to predict coal needs at the coal-fired steam power plant Indramayu using ARIMA compared to hybrid ARIMA and PSO, has been proven increasing its accuracy by decreasing Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) from 9.03% to 4.69%.