Evaluation of Disability Progression in Multiple Sclerosis via Magnetic-Resonance-Based Deep Learning Techniques

Background This study aimed to clarify the need for disease-modifying drug (DMD) treatment in elderly patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) aged 50 years or older. MS is an autoimmune, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system that predominantly affects young women. Various DMDs are effective in preventing relapses and slowing the progression of disability in patients with MS. Although disease activity in MS is believed to decrease with aging, a consensus on the appropriate DMD treatment for elderly patients with MS is lacking. Methodology This study included elderly patients with MS (>50 years old). We compared the occurrence of relapses, worsening of disability, and conversion to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) between patients with DMD treatment and those without. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the predictors of these outcomes. Confounding factors were adjusted using propensity scores. Results From January 1991 to October 2022, 76 elderly patients with MS were included. The mean age at the last visit was 57.4 ± 6.3 years, with 51 patients being female. The mean age of onset of MS was 37.1 ± 10.1 years. Fifty-four patients were included in the DMD treatment group. The overall relapse rate was 38% (33% and 48% in the DMD treatment and untreated groups, respectively). No significant differences in relapse rates (p = 0.72) or in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were identified between the two groups. Kaplan-Meier curves showed no differences in the time to first relapse within five years between the two groups. Additionally, no significant predictors of relapse were identified. Among 61 patients with relapsing-remitting MS, 25% converted to SPMS during the observation period. Logistic regression analysis showed that older age at the final visit and the presence of brainstem lesions at the age of 50 years were associated with a higher rate of transition to SPMS. Conclusions In the present study, no significant difference was found in the rate of relapse, disability progression, and conversion to SPMS between the DMD treatment and untreated groups in elderly patients with MS. Therefore, in patients without long-term relapse, no poor prognostic functional factorsor predictors of conversion to SPMS, discontinuation of DMDs may beconsidered. In addition, the presence of brainstem lesions at 50 years of age may predict the conversion to SPMS. Thus, the continuation of DMD or conversion to an appropriate DMD should be considered in patients with brainstem lesions at 50 years of age.

BackgroundLow vitamin D levels, tobacco use and high body mass index (BMI) have been linked to adverse disease outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS), but their influence on long-term disability progression remains unclear. Therefore, we explored whether these modifiable lifestyle factors were associated with 10-year clinical disability progression in patients with MS. MethodsIn this prospective study, a cohort of 88 patients with relapsing-remitting MS completed a randomized controlled study on ω-3 fatty acids between 2004 and 2008. During 24 months, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), serum cotinine (nicotine metabolite), and BMI were repeatedly measured. In 2017, a follow-up study was conducted among 80 of the participants, including disability assessment by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Linear regression was used to explore associations between the lifestyle factors and the EDSS change over 10 years. ResultsHigher seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D levels were associated with lower 10-year EDSS progression (change in EDSS per 1 SD increase in 25(OH)D in a model adjusted for sex, age and baseline EDSS: -0.45 point, 95% CI: -0.75 to -0.16, p=0.003). Further adjustments for potential confounders related to lifestyle and disease status gave similar results. The association was mainly driven by low 25(OH)D levels during spring, as well as seasonally adjusted levels below 80 nmol/L. No clear association was found for BMI and cotinine. ConclusionLower 25(OH)D levels, but apparently not tobacco use or higher BMI, were significantly associated with worse long-term disability progression in MS.

To investigate disease progression and risk factors in a large geographically based population with multiple sclerosis (MS), using two different inception points--clinical onset and date of birth. The authors reviewed a database of subjects with definite MS and symptom onset prior to July 1988. The main outcome was sustained progression to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6 (requires a cane), using the date of birth and date of MS onset as inception points in separate analyses. Risk factors examined were sex, relapsing vs primary progressive course, onset age, and onset symptoms. The study included 2,837 patients, followed prospectively for 22,723 patient years. The median time to EDSS 6 was 27.9 years, 15 years after onset; only 21% reached EDSS 6, and by age 50, 28% required a cane. Men progressed 38% more quickly than women from onset (p < 0.0005), yet both required canes at similar ages: 58.8 years for men and 60.1 for women (p = 0.082). A younger onset age predicted a slower progression, but those older at onset were consistently older when reaching EDSS 6. A primary progressive course predicted a more rapid progression from both onset (p < 0.0005) and birth (hazard ratio = 2.7 [95% CI: 2.2 to 3.3]). No onset symptom consistently predicted progression. Disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) accrued more slowly than found in earlier longitudinal studies. The authors also challenged two fundamental concepts in MS, demonstrating that neither male sex nor older onset age was associated with worse disease outcome.

Immune-inflammatory, metabolic and hormonal biomarkers are associated with the clinical forms and disability progression in patients with multiple sclerosis: A follow-up study

Early prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains challenging despite its critical importance for therapeutic decision-making. We present the first systematic evaluation of personalized federated learning (PFL) for 2-year MS disability progression prediction, leveraging multi-center real-world data from over 26,000 patients. While conventional federated learning (FL) enables privacy-aware collaborative modeling, it remains vulnerable to institutional data heterogeneity. PFL overcomes this challenge by adapting shared models to local data distributions without compromising privacy. We evaluated two personalization strategies: a novel AdaptiveDualBranchNet architecture with selective parameter sharing, and personalized fine-tuning of global models, benchmarked against centralized and client-specific approaches. Baseline FL underperformed relative to personalized methods, whereas personalization significantly improved performance, with personalized FedProx and FedAVG achieving ROC-AUC scores of 0.8398 ± 0.0019 and 0.8384 ± 0.0014, respectively. These findings establish personalization as critical for scalable, privacy-aware clinical prediction models and highlight its potential to inform earlier intervention strategies in MS and beyond.

ImportanceA number of officially approved disease-modifying drugs (DMD) are currently available for the early intervention in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). The aim of the present study was to systematically evaluate the effect of DMDs on disability progression in RRMSMethodsWe performed a systematic review on MEDLINE and SCOPUS databases to include all available placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of RRMS patients that reported absolute numbers or percentages of disability progression during each study period. Observational studies, case series, case reports, RCTs without placebo subgroups and studies reporting the use of RRMS therapies that are not still officially approved were excluded. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated in each study protocol to express the comparison of disability progression in RRMS patients treated with a DMD and those RRMS patients receiving placebo. The mixed-effects model was used to calculate both the pooled point estimate in each subgroup and the overall estimates.ResultsDMDs for RRMS were found to have a significantly lower risk of disability progression compared to placebo (RR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.66–0.79; p<0.001), with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. In subsequent subgroup analyses, neither dichotomization of DMDs as “first” and “second” line RRMS therapies [(RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.65–0.80) vs. (RR = 0.72, 95% = 0.57–0.91); p = 0.96] nor the route of administration (injectable or oral) [RR = 0.75 (95% CI = 0.64–0.87) vs. RR = 0.74 (95% CI = 0.66–0.83); p = 0.92] had a differential effect on the risk of disability progression. Either considerable (5–20%) or significant (>20%) rates of loss to follow-up were reported in many study protocols, while financial and/or other support from pharmaceutical industries with a clear conflict of interest on the study outcomes was documented in all included studies.ConclusionsAvailable DMD are effective in reducing disability progression in patients with RRMS, independently of the route of administration and their classification as “first” or “second” line therapies. Attrition bias needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of these findings.

<h3>Objective:</h3> Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and clinical parameters are associated with disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). The aim of this study was to investigate whether adding MRI parameters to a model with only clinical parameters could improve these associations. <h3>Methods:</h3> 89 patients (55 women) with recently diagnosed MS had clinical and MRI evaluation at baseline (time of diagnosis) and at follow-up after 2.2 years. Detailed clinical data were available, including disease type (relapse-onset or progressive-onset) and disability, as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). MRI parameters included Normalised Brain Volume (NBV) at baseline, percentage brain volume change (PBVC/year), T2- and T1-lesion loads and spinal cord abnormalities. Progression of disability (increase in EDSS of at least 1 point at follow-up) was the main outcome measure. For a model containing only clinical parameters, the added value of MRI parameters was tested using logistic regression. <h3>Results:</h3> PBVC/year and lesion loads at follow-up were significantly higher in the group with progression. Adding PBVC/year to a clinical model improved the model, indicating that MRI parameters added independent information (p&lt;0.001). <h3>Conclusion:</h3> The rate of cerebral atrophy conveys added information for the progression of disability in patients with early MS, suggesting that clinical disability is determined by neurodegenerative changes as depicted by MRI.

In individuals with multiple sclerosis, physical and cognitive disability progression are clinical and pathophysiological hallmarks of the disease. Despite shortcomings, particularly in capturing cognitive deficits, the Expanded Disability Status Scale is the assessment of disability progression most widely used in clinical trials. Here, we review treatment effects on disability that have been reported in large clinical trials of disease-modifying treatment, both among patients with relapsing–remitting disease and among those with progressive disease. However, direct comparisons are confounded to some degree by the lack of consistency in assessment of disability progression across trials. Confirmed disability progression (CDP) is a more robust measure when performed over a 6-month than a 3-month interval, and reduction in the risk of 6-month CDP in phase III trials provides good evidence for the beneficial effects on disability of several high-efficacy treatments for relapsing–remitting disease. It is also becoming increasingly clear that therapies effective in relapsing–remitting disease have little impact on the course of progressive disease. Given that the pathophysiological mechanisms, which lead to the long-term accrual of physical and cognitive deficits, are evident at the earliest stages of disease, it remains a matter of debate whether the most effective therapies are administered early enough to afford patients the best long-term outcomes.

PurposeClinical validation of “BrainLossNet”, a deep learning-based method for fast and robust estimation of brain volume loss (BVL) from longitudinal T1-weighted MRI, for the detection of accelerated BVL in multiple sclerosis (MS) and for the discrimination between MS patients with versus without disability progression. Materials and methodsA longitudinal normative database of healthy controls (n = 563), two mono-scanner MS cohorts (n = 414, 156) and a mixed-scanner cohort acquired for various indications (n = 216) were included retrospectively. Mean observation period from the baseline (BL) to the last follow-up (FU) MRI scan was 2–3 years. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at BL and FU was available in 149 MS patients. Annual BVL was computed using BrainLossNet and Siena and then adjusted for age. Repeated-measures ANOVA and Cohen's effect size were used to compare BrainLossNet and Siena regarding the detection of accelerated BVL and the differentiation between MS patients with versus without EDSS progression. ResultsCohen's effect size for the differentiation of patients from healthy controls based on the age-adjusted annual BVL was larger with BrainLossNet than with Siena (MS cohort 1: 0.927 versus 0.495, MS cohort 2: 0.671 versus 0.456, mixed-scanner cohort: 0.918 versus 0.730, all p < 0.001). Cohen's effect size for the discrimination between MS patients with (n = 51) versus without (n = 98) EDSS progression was larger with BrainLossNet (0.503 versus 0.400, p = 0.048). ConclusionBrainLossNet can provide added value in clinical routine and MS therapy trials regarding the detection of accelerated BVL in MS and the differentiation between MS patients with versus without disability progression.

BackgroundThere is a lack of understanding of the mechanisms by which the CNS is injured in multiple sclerosis (MS). Since Theiler’s murine encephalomyelitis virus (TMEV) infection in SJL/J mice is an established model of progressive disability in MS, and CNS atrophy correlates with progressive disability in MS, we used in vivo MRI to quantify total ventricular volume in TMEV infection. We then sought to identify immunological and virological biomarkers that correlated with increased ventricular size.MethodsMice, both infected and control, were followed for 6 months. Cerebral ventricular volumes were determined by MRI, and disability was assessed by Rotarod. A range of immunological and virological measures was obtained using standard techniques.ResultsDisability was present in infected mice with enlarged ventricles, while infected mice without enlarged ventricles had Rotarod performance similar to sham mice. Ventricular enlargement was detected as soon as 1 month after infection. None of the immunological and virological measures correlated with the development of ventricular enlargement.ConclusionsThese results support TMEV infection with brain MRI monitoring as a useful model for exploring the biology of disability progression in MS, but they did not identify an immunological or virological correlate with ventricular enlargement.

Disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) is strongly linked to central nervous system (CNS)-specific pathological processes that occur throughout all disease stages, but that become clinically evident in later phases of the disease. We here discuss current views and concepts for targeting progressive MS. Detailed clinical assessment of MS patients has identified an even closer entanglement of relapse-remitting and progressive disease, leading to novel concepts such as 'progression independent of relapse activity'. Evolving clinical concepts together with a focus on molecular (neurofilament light chain) and imaging (paramagnetic rim lesions) biomarkers might specifically identify patients at risk of developing progressive MS considerably earlier than before. A multitude of novel treatment approaches focus either on direct neuroaxonal protection or myelin regeneration or on beneficially modulating CNS-intrinsic or innate immune inflammation. Although some long-awaited trials have recently been unsuccessful, important lessons could still be drawn from novel trial designs providing frameworks for future clinical studies. Targeting progressive disease biology and repairing established damage is the current central challenge in the field of MS. Especially, the compartmentalized adaptive and innate CNS inflammation is an attractive target for novel approaches, probably as a combinatory approach together with neuroprotective or myelin regenerating strategies.

Multiple sclerosis is the most common cause of disability in young patients with neurological problems, which makes it the most important medical, social, and economic problem. Analysis of the structure and dynamics of primary disability resulted from multiple sclerosis in the city of St. Petersburg was carried out from 2016 through 2018. The proportion of patients with multiple sclerosis, who were for the first time identified as disabled, was 1 in 166 (0.6%) examinations in 2016; 1 in 142 (0.7%) in 2017; and 1 in 135 (0.74%) in 2018. In the course of three years, 74.2% of patients were assigned to the third-degree disability group; 21.2% to the second-degree disability group; 3.2% to the first-degree disability group; and 1.4% of patients were deemed a “disabled child” status. Working age people (26–45 years old) prevailed among those first recognized as disabled, which accounted for 58.6%. Analysis of types of multiple sclerosis course carried out for the year 2017 showed the prevalence of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis accounting for 86% of cases. Main indicators associated with the disability were as follows: work-related limitations (98.7%), limited ability to move independently (93.4%), and limited ability to perform activities of daily living (19.9%). This study showed an increase in the number of people first recognized as disabled among patients with multiple sclerosis during this period, which probably results from multiple sclerosis incidence and prevalence growth. Patients of working age with third-degree disability, predominantly women with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, prevail among patients with multiple sclerosis who were first recognized as disabled, which corresponds to the literature data. Leading indicators of disability are: work-related limitations, limited ability to move independently, and limited ability to perform activities of daily living. Data obtained indicated a high medical, social, and economical significance of multiple sclerosis, which confirm the need for earliest diagnosis and timely initiation of therapy in order to slow down the disability progression in patients of working age.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an important cause of progressive neurological disability, typically commencing in early adulthood. There is a need for safe and effective therapy to prevent the progressive central nervous system (CNS) damage and resultant disability that characterize the disease course. Increasing evidence supports a chronic autoimmune basis for CNS damage in MS. In the present study, we review current concepts of autoimmune pathogenesis in MS, assess current therapies aimed at countering autoimmune attack and discuss potential therapeutic strategies. Among currently available therapies, beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate have a modest effect on reducing relapses and slowing the accumulation of disability in relapsing-remitting MS. Beta-interferon is of doubtful efficacy in secondary progressive MS and appears to aggravate primary progressive MS, possibly by increasing antibody-mediated CNS damage through inhibition of B-cell apoptosis. Mitoxantrone may reduce relapses and slow disability progression in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS, but its use is limited by the risk of cardiomyopathy. There are currently no effective treatments for primary progressive MS. Many therapies that are effective in the animal model, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), are either ineffective in MS or--in the case of gamma-interferon, lenercept and altered peptide ligands--actually make MS worse. This discrepancy may be explained by the occurrence in MS of defects in immunoregulatory mechanisms, the integrity of which is essential for the efficacy of these treatments in EAE. It is likely that the development of safe, effective therapy for MS will depend on a better understanding of immunoregulatory defects in MS.

Interferon beta is widely prescribed to treat multiple sclerosis (MS); however, its relationship with disability progression has yet to be established. To investigate the association between interferon beta exposure and disability progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Retrospective cohort study based on prospectively collected data (1985-2008) from British Columbia, Canada. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with interferon beta (n = 868) were compared with untreated contemporary (n = 829) and historical (n = 959) cohorts. The main outcome measure was time from interferon beta treatment eligibility (baseline) to a confirmed and sustained score of 6 (requiring a cane to walk 100 m; confirmed at >150 days with no measurable improvement) on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (range, 0-10, with higher scores indicating higher disability). A multivariable Cox regression model with interferon beta treatment included as a time-varying covariate was used to assess the hazard of disease progression associated with interferon beta treatment. Analyses also included propensity score adjustment to address confounding by indication. The median active follow-up times (first to last EDSS measurement) were as follows: for the interferon beta-treated cohort, 5.1 years (interquartile range [IQR], 3.0-7.0 years); for the contemporary control cohort, 4.0 years (IQR, 2.1-6.4 years); and for the historical control cohort, 10.8 years (IQR, 6.3-14.7 years). The observed outcome rates for reaching a sustained EDSS score of 6 were 10.8%, 5.3%, and 23.1% in the 3 cohorts, respectively. After adjustment for potential baseline confounders (sex, age, disease duration, and EDSS score), exposure to interferon beta was not associated with a statistically significant difference in the hazard of reaching an EDSS score of 6 when either the contemporary control cohort (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.92-1.83; P = .14) or the historical control cohort (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.58-1.02; P = .07) were considered. Further adjustment for comorbidities and socioeconomic status, where possible, did not change interpretations, and propensity score adjustment did not substantially change the results. Among patients with relapsing-remitting MS, administration of interferon beta was not associated with a reduction in progression of disability.

Mitoxantrone in relapsing-remitting and rapidly progressive multiple sclerosis: Ten-year clinical outcomes post-treatment with mitoxantrone