Evaluation of pavement surface roughness performance under multi-features conditions based on optimized random forest

Simulation of pavement roughness and IRI based on power spectral density

Predicting the International Roughness Index (IRI) is crucial for maintaining road quality and ensuring the safety and comfort of road users. Accurate IRI predictions help in the timely identification of road sections that require maintenance, thus preventing further deterioration and reducing overall maintenance costs. This study aims to develop robust predictive models for the IRI using advanced machine learning techniques across different climatic conditions. Data were sourced from the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure in the UAE for localized conditions coupled with the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database for comparison and validation purposes. This study evaluates several machine learning models, including regression trees, support vector machines (SVMs), ensemble trees, Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and kernel-based methods. Among the models tested, GPR, particularly with rational quadratic specifications, consistently demonstrated superior performance with the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and highest R-squared values across all datasets. Sensitivity analysis identified age, total pavement thickness, precipitation, temperature, and Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT) as key factors influencing the IRI. The results indicate that pavement age and higher traffic loads significantly increase roughness, while thicker pavements contribute to smoother surfaces. Climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation showed varying impacts depending on the regional conditions. The developed models provide a powerful tool for predicting pavement roughness, enabling more accurate maintenance planning and resource allocation. The findings highlight the necessity of tailoring pavement management practices to specific environmental and traffic conditions to enhance road quality and longevity. This research offers a comprehensive framework for understanding and predicting pavement performance, with implications for infrastructure management both locally and worldwide.

The accurate prediction of pavement performance is essential for transportation administration or management to appropriately allocate resources road maintenance and upkeep. The international roughness index (IRI) is one of the most commonly used pavement performance indicators to reflect the surface roughness. However, the existing research on IRI prediction mainly focuses on using linear regression or traditional machine learning, which cannot take into account the historical effects of IRI caused by climate, traffic, pavement construction and intermittent maintenance. In this work, a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model, LSTM+MA, is proposed to predict the IRI of pavements using the time-series data extracted from the long-term pavement performance (LTPP) dataset. Effective preprocessing methods and hyperparameter fine-tuning are selected to improve the accuracy of the model. The performance of the LSTM+MA is compared with other state-of-the-art models, including logistic regressor (LR), support vector regressor (SVR), random forest (RF), K-nearest-neighbor regressor (KNR), fully connected neural network (FNN), XGBoost (XGB), recurrent neural network (RNN) and LSTM. The results show that selected preprocessing methods can help the model learn quickly from the data and reach high accuracy in small epochs. Also, it shows that the proposed LSTM+MA model significantly outperforms other models, with an R2 of 0.965 and a mean square error (MSE) of 0.030 in the test datasets. Moreover, an overfitting score is proposed in this work to represent the severity degree of the overfitting problem, and it shows that the proposed model does not suffer severely from overfitting.

Riyadh City established and implemented a Pavement Maintenance Management System (PMMS) through the General Directorate of Maintenance and operation. The system was created to address the difficulties that come with maintaining and reserving the pavement network. To evaluate pavement conditions, Riyadh (PMMS) uses visual checks, structural capacity roughness, and skid resistance. An Urban Distress Index (UDI) is calculated during the visual assessment process. Distressed pavement types, severity, and quantity are taken into account when calculating UDI values. As a result, the procedure gathers extensive data on the pavement’s condition. However, the procedure is time-consuming and very costly. The Automatic Road Analyzer car provides data on road roughness in accordance with the International Roughness Index (IRI). The IRI data are often generated quite quickly and at a cheap cost as compared to the distress survey. This study’s aim is to examine whether a sample of Riyadh city pavement sections can be connected to the IRI depending on the distress type. The research develops statistical models that correlate IRI values with several distress-types associated with roadway classes. Correlating the International Roughness Index values to distress type will eliminate the necessity to implement the manual inspection at a network- level. This saves money and time for PMMS employees when preparing annual maintenance requirements and setting priorities. The finding of the study, of the relationship between the pavement distresses and the International Roughness Index showed a statistically significant relationship between pavement roughness and some ride-quality distresses, like depression and patching, as well as some non-ride quality distresses like potholes and rutting. In addition, for both main and secondary streets, an analysis of variance shows the existence of a correlation between the two variables.

<p>Highway pavements serve the need for safe transportation of human being and freights, so their condition deserves continuous monitoring and assessment. However, pavements are most often monitored in terms of their surface performance evaluation. Either with or without surface distresses, excessive pavement unevenness and/or texture loss may lead to a reduced road users’ satisfaction. Most often, the pavement surface condition is sensed through laser profilers that operate at traffic speeds. Once detected through the stand-alone use of laser profilers, pavement roughness along a pavement surface may be of major concern for the related agencies, since the root causes of roughness issues are in most cases unknown.</p><p>Excessive unevenness might sometimes be interrelated with structural issues within one or more pavement layers or even issues within the pavement foundation support. Traditionally, coring and boreholes are considered suitable to detect the condition of pavement surface layers and pavement substructure respectively. However, these processes are destructive and time-consuming. On the contrary, Non-Destructive Testing</p><p>(NDT) can be alternatively used to rapidly evaluate potential structural problems at areas with roughness issues and identify areas for further investigation. A popular method to assess the pavement structural integrity is the use of nondestructive deflectometric tests, including the Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD). This kind of testing outperforms the traditional approach; thus it is both desirable and practical.</p><p>On these grounds, related research is pursued towards integrating pavement profile and deflectometric data in order to further evaluate indications of increased pavement roughness. In particular, Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) data including deflectometric and pavement profile data is used. Additional sensing data through geophysical inspections with the Ground Penetrating Radar (GRP) is used to assist the overall pavement assessment. The study demonstrates the power of pavement sensing data in order to provide the related agencies with cost-effective and reliable evaluation methods and approaches.</p>

Highway performance prediction model of International Roughness Index based on panel data analysis in subtropical monsoon climate

The surface roughness in terms of International Roughness Index (IRI) captures variation in vertical surface elevations along the pavement length. Diamond grinding is a rigid pavement preservation treatment which is typically utilized to increase pavement smoothness by eliminating the surface undulations. The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of diamond grinding on rigid pavement performance by using the mechanistic-empirical procedure. The effectiveness of a diamond grinding was assessed by evaluating the IRI before and after the treatment. Generally, smoother pavements will have lower IRI, which will result in less vehicle body and axle bounce. Consequently, the pavement will be subjected to reduced dynamic loads which may cause less pavement damage or vice versa. The longitudinal profile and axle load data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) in the SPS-6 experiment were utilized to evaluate the impact of diamond grinding on pavement performance. These experiments were designed to evaluate the effectiveness of rigid pavement rehabilitation treatments. The data for pavement sections from two climatic zones were evaluated before and after diamond grinding. The axle distributions for each pavement section were utilized to generate truck gross-vehicle weight (GVW) distributions. Subsequently, the truck GVW distributions were used to generate truck response on different pavement surface profiles by using TruckSim software. The impact of surface roughness on dynamic loads was evaluated by comparing axle load spectra before and after diamond grinding. The variations in the axle load spectra are used to explain the differences in the predicted pavement performance in terms of cracking, faulting and IRI.

Comparative study of different machine learning models in landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of Conghua District, Guangzhou, China

Pavement performance is influenced by man factors such as climate and environmental conditions, traffic and operational conditions and type of pavement. These factors cause a pavement deterioration what leads to the restriction of the pavement serviceability or pavement efficiency. The pavement serviceability is the ability of the pavement to fulfil the service function represented by the actual values of variable parameters such as pavement surface roughness, surface evenness, pavement surface condition. The state of the pavement is assessed using different performance indicators when International Roughness Index (IRI) is most used. This approach allows to classify the state of the pavement in the pavement management system as a most used indexing, generalizes the pavement surface to the response of the testing car tire and the pavement. Laser scanning presented in this paper is able to bring the knowledge about the real pavement surface considering the accuracy of the method and equipment. Realized laser scanning proved the applicability of this method for the measurement of the pavement surface. Because of the complex knowledge of the pavement surface morphology, we can evaluate the pavement serviceability in terms of roughness, surface evenness or even pavement surface condition (rutting or cracks).

To predict the potential geographic distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Yunnan Province using random forest (RF) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models, so as to provide insights into O. hupensis surveillance and control in Yunnan Province. The O. hupensis snail survey data in Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2016 were collected and converted into O. hupensis snail distribution site data. Data of 22 environmental variables in Yunnan Province were collected, including twelve climate variables (annual potential evapotranspiration, annual mean ground surface temperature, annual precipitation, annual mean air pressure, annual mean relative humidity, annual sunshine duration, annual mean air temperature, annual mean wind speed, ≥ 0 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, ≥ 10 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, aridity and index of moisture), eight geographical variables (normalized difference vegetation index, landform type, land use type, altitude, soil type, soil textureclay content, soil texture-sand content and soil texture-silt content) and two population and economic variables (gross domestic product and population). Variables were screened with Pearson correlation test and variance inflation factor (VIF) test. The RF and MaxEnt models and the ensemble model were created using the biomod2 package of the software R 4.2.1, and the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted in Yunnan Province. The predictive effects of models were evaluated through cross-validation and independent tests, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa statistics were used for model evaluation. In addition, the importance of environmental variables was analyzed, the contribution of environmental variables output by the models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were selected for normalization processing, and the importance percentage of environmental variables was obtained to analyze the importance of environmental variables. Data of 148 O. hupensis snail distribution sites and 15 environmental variables were included in training sets of RF and MaxEnt models, and both RF and MaxEnt models had high predictive performance, with both mean AUC values of > 0.900 and all mean TSS values and Kappa values of > 0.800, and significant differences in the AUC (t = 19.862, P < 0.05), TSS (t = 10.140, P < 0.05) and Kappa values (t = 10.237, P < 0.05) between two models. The AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the ensemble model were 0.996, 0.954 and 0.920, respectively. Independent data verification showed that the AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the RF model and the ensemble model were all 1, which still showed high performance in unknown data modeling, and the MaxEnt model showed poor performance, with TSS and Kappa values of 0 for 24%(24/100) of the modeling results. The modeling results of 79 RF models, 38 MaxEnt models and their ensemble models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were included in the evaluation of importance of environmental variables. The importance of annual sunshine duration (SSD) was 32.989%, 37.847% and 46.315% in the RF model, the MaxEnt model and their ensemble model, while the importance of annual mean relative humidity (RHU) was 30.947%, 15.921% and 28.121%, respectively. Important environment variables were concentrated in modeling results of the RF model, dispersed in modeling results of the MaxEnt model, and most concentrated in modeling results of the ensemble model. The potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted to be relatively concentrated in Yunnan Province by the RF model and relatively large by the MaxEnt model, and the distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by the ensemble model was mostly the joint distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by RF and MaxEnt models. Both RF and MaxEnt models are effective to predict the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails in Yunnan Province, which facilitates targeted O. hupensis snail control.

This paper analyses some of the most widely used indices for the characterization of longitudinal roughness. Measured longitudinal profiles available in the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program database were used. A total of 207 pavement sections, in 42 States of the USA, were used in these analyses. Using a suitable software, the International Roughness Index (IRI), the Standard Deviation of longitudinal roughness (σ) and the Root Mean Square of Vertical Acceleration (RMSVA) with different base lengths were computed for every measured longitudinal pavement profile. Linear regression analyses between the IRI and σ statistics produced a very high correlation (R2=0.93). Multivariate regression between IRI and the RMSVA also showed a high correlation (R2=0.96) for base lengths of 1.0 m and 3.5 m. On the other hand, when the RMSVA and σ statistics were analyzed, it was observed that all regressions including a RMSVA with the base length of 1.5m presented a nearly perfect correlation (R2≅1.00). Probabilistic analyses were also carried out using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method applied to the regression models obtained between the IRI × RMSVA and σ × RMSVA. Thus, it was possible to determine the relative contribution of different base lengths used in the RMSVA statistic on each roughness index. It was concluded that the base length of 1.5 m contributed in average with 96% of roughness values computed for σ statistic, whereas the base length of 1.0 m was responsible for 74.5% of computed IRI values.

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is calculated from elevation profiles acquired by high-speed profilers or laser scanners, but these raw data often contain measurement noise and extraneous wavelength components that can degrade the accuracy of IRI calculations. Existing filtering methods expose a limitation in removing IRI-insensitive wavelength components. Thus, this paper proposes a Gaussian filtering algorithm based on the Nyquist sampling theorem to remove IRI-insensitive components of the longitudinal profile. The proposed approach first adaptively determines Gaussian template lengths according to sampling intervals, and then incorporates a boundary padding strategy to ensure processing stability. The proposed method enables precise wavelength selection within the IRI-sensitive band of 1.3–29.4 m while maintaining computational efficiency. The method was validated using the Paris–Lille dataset and the U.S. Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program dataset. The filtered profiles were evaluated by Power Spectral Density (PSD), and IRI values were calculated and compared with those obtained by conventional profile filtering methods. The results show that the proposed method is effective in removing the non-sensitive components of IRI and obtaining highly accurate IRI values. Compared with the standard IRI provided by the LTPP dataset, mean absolute error of the IRI values from the proposed method reaches 0.051 m/km, and mean relative error is less than 4%. These findings indicate that the proposed method improves the reliability of IRI calculation.

Coastal areas, deltas, and the lower end of large rivers have experienced profound long-term changes, destabilizing the environmental balance over the previous several decades. There is an immediate need to identify the factors responsible for the changes. Hence, this research has attempted to analyze and identify natural and human factors in the Lower Apalachicola River (LAR) using the Difference of Digital Elevation Models (DoD) approach from 1960 to 2010, machine learning, and remote sensing data and techniques. First, the research examines the factors influencing riverbed aggradation in the study region between 1960 and 2010, when the USACE conducted the Navigational Project. Using a comparative analysis of two machine learning regression models to determine the long-term riverbed change, we employed the Random Forest (RF) regression model and the Extreme Gradient Boosting regression model (XGBoost). The models are conducted with 10 factors for the given period, including neutral factors such as floodplain width, bank vegetation density, river curvature, Stream Power Index, Junctures, and Tidal and human factors such as Cutoffs, Dikes, Dredging and disposal, from 1960 to 2010. The study identifies potential drivers of riverbed changes using machine learning algorithms. The RF model has outperformed the XGBoost model with an R-square of 0.95 and 0.93 for the validation and testing sets, respectively, for RF, indicating high predictive accuracy while slightly less accurate with an R-square of 0.75 and 0.74 for the validation and testing sets. In the RF model, Floodplain Width Dikes and Junctures showed the most influential factors on the riverbed, respectively, and Dredging was the most influential factor in the XGBoost model. The research provides decision-makers and local populations with vital knowledge to prepare for the future of the river in the face of both natural and anthropogenic changes, mitigate potential dangers, and effectively manage land recovery.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

Employee churn is a significant challenge for organizations, leading to substantial costs associated with recruiting, onboarding, and training new employees. High turnover rates can negatively impact overall productivity, employee morale, and organizational stability. Therefore, accurately predicting employee churn is crucial for companies to implement targeted retention strategies, minimize turnover, and reduce associated expenses. In this study, we leveraged machine learning techniques to predict employee churn using the "HR Analytics" dataset from Kaggle. One of the key challenges in churn prediction is class imbalance, where the number of employees who leave is significantly lower than those who stay. To address this, we applied two data-balancing techniques: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and Random Over-Sampling (ROS). We then trained and evaluated four machine learning models Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) on the balanced datasets. The F1 scores for the SMOTE-balanced data were: Logistic Regression (0.5990), Random Forest (0.9753), Decision Tree (0.9319), and XGBoost (0.9634). Meanwhile, the ROS-balanced data produced F1 scores of: Logistic Regression (0.5978), Random Forest (0.9760), Decision Tree (0.9475), and XGBoost (0.9703). The results demonstrated that ROS yielded superior performance, particularly for the Random Forest and XGBoost models, leading us to select ROS for further hyperparameter tuning. Using RandomizedSearchCV for optimization, the Random Forest model achieved the highest F1 score of 0.9779. Finally, we deployed the optimized Random Forest model via a Flask API, enabling HR professionals to access a user-friendly web interface for realtime churn prediction. This research highlights the effectiveness of machine learning in HR analytics and underscores the practical benefits of predictive modeling in workforce management, helping organizations proactively address employee retetion challenges.