Evaluation of predator numerical responses

Long‐finned pilot whales in the Strait of Gibraltar are distributed over the main shipping routes. This exposes them to risks of collisions and probable acoustic and physical disturbance. This species is also the target of whale‐watching operations. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual population size, survival rate, and population growth rate of pilot whales occurring in the Strait and their inter‐annual variation using photo‐identification. A robust design was used to estimate all three parameters. A total of 10,784 individual pilot whale fins were photographed and analyzed. The population size estimation in summer ranged from a low of 147 individuals in 1999 to a high of 265 individuals in 2003. The annual population growth rate was estimated from mark recapture models to be 5.5%. The survival rate of adults was estimated at 0.982 (95% CI: 0.955–0.993). The same individuals have been observed between years. This suggests that this population is resident in the Strait, at least during summer. This study provides baseline knowledge prior to a predicted increase in shipping traffic throughout the main foraging area due to the opening in 2007 of a major shipping harbor along the Moroccan coast of the Strait.

A researcher used censuses and surveys to analyze 1966-1976 and 1976-1986 population data to compare population growth and fertility of Iran under the Shah with those of theocratic Iran. Between 1966-1976 the government introduced policies which improved the legal and social status of women and promoted fertility control. These resulted in a reduction in the annual population growth rate from 3.1-2.7%. In fact the crude birth rate fell from 49-42.7. Yet the rural birth rate (49.1) was still 1 of the highest in the world. A rising age at marriage contributed to the fall in fertility. For example in 1966 46.5% of 15-19 year old women were married compared to 34.2% in 1976. In fact the singulate mean age of marriage increased from 18.4-19.7. Further the percentage of women of reproductive age who were married decreased 81-75% between 1966-1976. Moreover age specific fertility rates fell for all 20-40 year old women. Indeed total fertility declined from 7.7-6.3. This was more pronounced in urban areas (6.9-4.4). As a result of the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war population size increased rapidly from 33.7-49.4 million (1976-1986)--3.8% annual growth rate. Further the crude birth rate increased 12% (1986 47.6). In addition at least 1.8 million people from Afghanistan sought refuge in Iran. Moreover the age at 1st marriage was not any higher than in 1986 than it was in 1976. In fact the government reduced the legal age to 9 for females and 14 for males. Further it abolished the family planning council. In addition the proportion of 15-59 year old married women only decreased 3% between 1976-1986 compared to 6% between 1976-1986. Age specific fertility rates increased significantly especially for 40-44 year olds (32%). Further total fertility rose to 7 and the increase was especially high in urban areas (16% increase compared to 8% in rural areas). As of the end of 1991 there were indications that the government recognized the population problem and had taken steps to promote family planning.

The main purpose of the paper is to assess the migration processes in Artsakh in a demographic context. The main objective of the research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the migration situation in Artsakh as a result of studying and analyzing the de jure population of Artsakh and Armenia, as well as the annual population growth rate, natural and mechanical growth, the number of people arriving and leaving Artsakh. In this context, through the methods of analyzing historical series, comparative analysis, the authors presented the migration processes in Artsakh, combining them with the processes taking place in the demographic situation. The movement of the population of Artsakh and Armenia has shown that the rate of annual de jure population growth in Artsakh is higher than in Armenia. Moreover, the same can be recorded for both natural and mechanical growth indicators. In general, the analysis of the migration situation in Artsakh shows that the causes and consequences of migration have changed over the years. The last, most significant factor is the 44-day war unleashed by Azerbaijan on September 27, 2020, the influence of which on the migration propensity of the Artsakh people continues to this day.

Population cycles in voles are often thought to be generated by one-year delayed density dependence on the annual population growth rate. In common voles, however, it has been suggested by Turchin (2003) that some populations exhibit first-order cycles, resulting from strong overcompensation (i.e. carrying capacity overshoots in peak years, with only an effect of the current year abundance on annual growth rates). We focus on a common vole (Microtus arvalis) population from western France that exhibits 3-year cycles. Several overcompensating nonlinear models for populations dynamics are fitted to the data, notably those of Hassell, and Maynard-Smith and Slatkin. Overcompensating direct density dependence (DD) provides a satisfactory description of winter crashes, and one-year delayed density dependence is not responsible for the crashes, thus these are not classical second-order cycles. A phase-driven modulation of direct density dependence maintains a low-phase, explaining why the cycles last three years instead of two. Our analyses suggest that some of this phase dependence can be expressed as one-year delayed DD, but phase dependence provides a better description. Hence, modelling suggests that cycles in this population are first-order cycles with a low phase after peaks, rather than fully second-order cycles. However, based on the popular log-linear second-order autoregressive model, we would conclude only that negative delayed density dependence exists. The additive structure of this model cannot show when delayed DD occurs (here, during lows rather than peaks). Our analyses thus call into question the automated use of second-order log-linear models, and suggests that more attention should be given to non-(log)linear models when studying cyclic populations. From a biological viewpoint, the fast crashes through overcompensation that we found suggest they might be caused by parasites or food rather than predators, though predators might have a role in maintaining the low phase and spatial synchrony.

Accurate low‐latitude sea surface temperature (SST) records that predate the instrumental era are needed to put recent warming in the context of natural climate variability and to evaluate the persistence of lower frequency climate variability prior to the instrumental era and the possible influence of anthropogenic climate change on this variability. Here we present a 235‐year‐long SST reconstruction based on annual growth rates (linear extension) of three colonies of the Atlantic coralSiderastrea sidereasampled at two sites on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, located within the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). AWP SSTs vary in concert the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a basin‐wide, quasiperiodic (∼60–80 years) oscillation of North Atlantic SSTs. We demonstrate that the annual linear growth rates of all three coral colonies are significantly inversely correlated with SST. We calibrate annual linear growth rates to SST between 1900 and 1960 AD. The linear correlation coefficient over the calibration period is r = −0.77 and −0.66 over the instrumental record (1860–2008 AD). We apply our calibration to annual linear growth rates to extend the SST record to 1775 AD and show that multidecadal SST variability has been a persistent feature of the AWP, and likely, of the North Atlantic over this time period. Our results imply that tropical Atlantic SSTs remained within 1°C of modern values during the past 225 years, consistent with a previous reconstruction based on coral growth rates and with most estimates based on the Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera from marine sediments.

**Abstract:** Introduction of exotic mammals like rats is one of the leading causes of island biodiversity loss, particulary for seabirds. Rat eradication generally has positive effects on seabirds but the demographic processes explaining these effects are not always understood. In this talk, we will present the evolution of the seabird community of Tromelin island (western Indian Ocean) after brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) eradication. Before rats introduction, in the XVIIIth century, 10 seabirds species were breeding on the island, totalling hundreds of thousands of pairs. In 2005, at the time of rat eradication, only 2 species (red-footed boobies (Sula sula) and masked boobies (Sula dactylatra)) were still breeding, totalling less than 400 pairs. In 2019, 15 years after rat eradication, 7 seabird species totalling more than 3000 pairs breed on the island. We determined the demographic parameters (breeding success, survival rate) of the two species that were still breeding in 2005 with capture-mark-recapture data. We built a matrix population model to estimate their annual population growth rate. This rate was 1.04 for red-footed boobies and 1.02 for masked boobies, which is in accordance with the observed growth. We estimated the carrying capacity of the island, as the maximum number of pairs that can breed on the island, knowing the area of favourable habitats. Carrying capacity was 18000 pairs for red-footed boobies and 27000 pairs for masked boobies. A density dependant matrix population model suggest that these populations could reach these value in 3 and 5 centuries, respectively. However these predictions should be interpreted with caution as the model does not include factors that may impact the growth of the populations : prey abundance, seabird induced changes in vegetation cover, interspecific competition and sea level rise which will reduce the area of suitable habitat, and increase the frequency of flooding events. **Authors:** Merlène Saunier¹, Matthieu Le Corre¹, Gabrielle Dicque¹, Maud Berlincourt¹, Morgane Manoury¹, Jean Hivert², Luc Gigord², Sabine Orlowski³, Florent Bignon³, David Ringler³ ¹UMR ENTROPIE, university of Reunion Island, ²CBNM-CPIE Mascarin, ³TAAF

Few long-term data describe the natural history of hepatic hemangiomas. Because these lesions are frequently imaged repetitively on studies performed for other indications, health care professionals are commonly confronted with the problem of a growing hemangioma. Because the rate and magnitude of normal growth is not well characterized, it is difficult to recognize lesions growing at an abnormal rate, which may require further evaluation or intervention. To establish quantitatively the expected growth rate of hepatic hemangiomas and to define a measure of hemangioma growth that could be used clinically to help identify hemangiomas for which growth is more than expected. Retrospective cohort study at an academic hospital tertiary referral center evaluating the growth rate of hepatic hemangiomas on cross-sectional imaging studies during a 10-year period (1997-2007). The mean (SD) follow-up time was 3.7 (1.9) years. The radiology information system was searched in a 10-year period for hemangioma. Patients with hepatic hemangiomas that were 1 cm or larger as seen on cross-sectional imaging (computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging), and 1 year or more apart were selected. Images with the longest interval between studies were selected for further review. Each study was rereviewed for diagnostic confirmation and to ensure consistency in measurement technique. Lesions were remeasured in 3 dimensions, and volumes were calculated using 3-dimensional software. Primary outcomes include the fraction of hepatic hemangiomas that demonstrated growth during long-term follow-up and the annual growth rate of those lesions. A total of 163 hemangiomas were identified in 123 patients. The mean (SD) initial size was 3.2 (3.1) cm. During follow-up, 39.3% of hemangiomas grew 5% or more in mean linear dimension. The mean (SD) annual linear growth rate was 0.03 (0.21) cm for all lesions and 0.19 (0.23) cm for those that grew 5% or more. By volume, 44.7% of lesions grew 5% or more. The mean (SD) annual volumetric growth rate was 2.8% (21.0%) for all lesions and 17.7% (22.8%) in those that grew 5% or more. The initial size predicted the growth in linear dimension and volume (P < .001). There was no significant change in growth rate over time, indicating uniform growth (R = 0.00843; P = .92). Nearly 40% of hepatic hemangiomas grow over time. Although the overall rate of growth is slow, hemangiomas that exhibit growth do so at a modest rate (2 mm/y in linear dimension and 17.4% per year in volume). Further research is needed to determine how patients with more rapidly growing hemangiomas should be treated.

Lethal removal is commonly used to reduce the density of invasive-species populations, presuming it reduces population growth rate; the actual effect of lethal removal on the vital rates contributing to population growth, however, is rarely tested. We implemented a manipulative experiment of feral pig (Sus scrofa) populations at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA, to assess the demographic effects of harvest intensity. Using mark–recapture data, we estimated annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rates of populations in a moderately harvested area and a heavily harvested area for 2004–06. Population growth rates did not differ between the populations. The top-ranked model for survival included a harvest intensity effect; model-averaged survival was lower for the heavily harvested population than for the moderately harvested population. Increased immigration and reproduction likely compensated for the increased mortality in the heavily harvested population. We conclude that compensatory responses in feral pig recruitment can limit the success of lethal control efforts.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of yellow-eyed penguin recovery

Summary 1 Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2 Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981–2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture–recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3 The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4 Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5 Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10–25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture–recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time.

Deforestation is one of the major environmental issues. Population increase has been blamed for being the most significant factor among others, responsible for deforestation. The present study was conducted to determine the relationship between increase in population and increase in non-forest areas and the effect of population on the forest cover in Ziarat district of Balochistan. Population for the year 1998 and the annual average population growth rate of 2.47% were taken as basis for the projection of Ziarat district population for the years 2004 to 2013. For forest cover determination, three reserved forest areas namely: Batsargai Reserved Forest, Gohar Reserved Forest and Sasnamana Reserved Forest were selected. Ten sample areas were chosen from these forests. Forest covers change in these sample areas from the year 2004 to 2013, were identified and calculated with the help of softwares: the Google Earth and the Earth Point. The results showed that there was positive correlation between population increase and increase in non-forest areas. The R2 values for the Batsargai, Gohar, and Sasnamana Reserved forests were 0.93, 0.65, and 0.85 respectively.

trialspecies,therelativemeritsofdifferentapproachesto ensure the long-term persistence of those species remain highly contentious. Most would agree, however, that both establishing protected areas and exercising some form of restraint on extraction of forest resources are among the most effective of all viable conservation measures. Deforestation, wildfires, logging, and hunting are among the leading drivers of species losses in tropical forests, and de facto or de jure protection from these threats can be conferred by either effective enforcement of regulations or physical remoteness. Attempts to assess conservation success of protected areasatlargescaleshaverestedprimarilyonconventional use of remote sensing to quantify spatial or temporal differences in rates of change in land cover due to deforestation and wildfires, rather than on empirical demographic or community-level metrics (Gaston et al. 2008). Q2 However, the former approaches fail to detect most types of subcanopy anthropogenic disturbances that also result, directly or indirectly, in species losses (Peres et al. 2006). Moreover, the effects of habitat loss and degradation on population extirpations and declines are nonlinear, so vegetation cover alone is rarely a robust proxy for the viability of terrestrial biotas. Remotesensing data show vast tracts of apparently intact tropical forests, but in reality levels of hunting and other forms of extraction in these areas are often unsustainable (Peres & Lake 2003). Fundamental questions yet to be answered include whether ostensibly intact protected areas retain full complements of forest species and how the extent of cryptic patterns of disturbance is related to human population density in both protected and unprotected areas. I considered the global to regional emergence of sustainable-use reserves, emphasizing the world’s largest tropical forest region, Amazonia. Sustainable-use reserves often have intermediate levels of disturbance, so I examined the degree of use of natural resources by resident communities and used human population density as a proxy for level of extraction. In both protected and unprotected areas, I also estimated responses of game vertebrate assemblages to hunting on the basis of the relative biomassextractedfromasubsetoftheforestfauna.Iused analysesofcovariance(ANCOVA)toexaminetheassociationbetweenhumandensityandgamebiomassharvested across different reserve categories. Finally, I considered the long-term capacity of sustainable-use forest reserves to maintain populations of all resident species.

Substance and opioid misuse are growing public health concerns. This study's objectives were to evaluate trends in substance and opioid misuse-related emergency department (ED) visits in Alberta, Canada. This is a cross-sectional time-series analysis utilizing National Ambulatory Care Reporting System ED data from Alberta, Canada. All substance and opioid misuse-related visits made by adults (≥ 18years) from 2010/11 to 2014/15 were analyzed. Acuity was measured by the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS). Relevant visits were identified by ICD-10 diagnostic coding. Substance and opioid visits over 60months were compared to all ED visits per 100,000 adult population using regression analysis, while controlling for temporal and seasonal variation. Trends among age and sex subgroups were also evaluated. From 2010/11 to 2014/15, substance and opioid misuse-related visits increased by 38.0% and 57.3% to 1119 and 118 visits per 100,000 population, respectively. Annual growth rates for substance and opioid visits were 4.4% higher (95% CI: 2.2, 6.7) and 10.6% higher (95% CI: 6.8, 14.6) than all ED visits. The 18-29year-old category experienced the highest annual growth rate of all age groups, and the annual opioid visit growth rate was 5.6% higher among males than females. Compared to all visits, substance misuse-related visits arrived more frequently by ambulance, were higher acuity, and were hospitalized more often. Substance and opioid misuse-related ED visits increased significantly from 2010 to 2015, especially among younger patients. Future research should elaborate causes and evaluate interventions to curb the growth of this issue.

Urban expansion in peri-urban region remains a major issue for regional planning and development, as it converts most of the land cover into built-up settlements rapidly and extensively beyond its spatial allocation plan (RTRW). South Tangerang City is one of municipalities in Jabodetabek with the most rapid annual population growth rate reached 6.87%. LUCC analysis from three LANDSAT land cover maps (1990, 2002, and 2014) shows that the built-up area has increased 8 times (8650 ha) in 1990-2014 with the average annual growth rate of 10.83% per sub-district (kelurahan). The most extensive land conversion type in 1990-2002 was vegetated land to open land (3605ha), while in 2002-2014 land conversion type was dominated by open land to built-up (3446ha). In general, the built-up area expansion in 1990-2002 shows irregular ribbon development pattern in district Serpong Utara, Pondok Aren, Ciputat Timur, Ciputat, and Pamulang, while district Serpong tends to represent leap frog development pattern. The expansion in 2002-2014 shows infill and ribbon development pattern continuation across the city. MLP was used to model LUCC sensitivity prediction. The model performance shows 73.16% accuracy with ROC validation of prediction output reaches 0.804 for 2014, which is qualified to predict LUCC sensitivity in 2032.

Hydroelectricity consumption forecast for Pakistan using ARIMA modeling and supply-demand analysis for the year 2030