Expected-likelihood covariance matrix estimation for adaptive detection

Journal Article Nonparametric estimation of large covariance matrices of longitudinal data Get access Wei Biao Wu, Wei Biao Wu Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Mohsen Pourahmadi Mohsen Pourahmadi Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Biometrika, Volume 90, Issue 4, December 2003, Pages 831–844, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/90.4.831 Published: 01 December 2003

This paper develops an improved covariance matrix estimator in the mean-variance optimisation setting. Well-known problems with the sample covariance matrix are that it is singular when the number of observations is less than the number of assets, and can be nearly singular when the number of observations exceeds the number of assets. Therefore, using the sample covariance matrix as an input in mean-variance optimisation can result in unreasonable optimal portfolios and badly biased estimates of Sharpe ratios. We address this problem by imposing structure on the estimated covariance matrix by putting constraints on the Sharpe ratio, asset return variances, and the variance of the global minimum variance portfolio. We show that the constrained maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) performs better than the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, when the shrinkage approach is applied to the CMLE and single index covariance matrix, it performs better than the shrinkage estimator of Ledoit and Wolf (2004).

Covariance matrix estimation is one of the most important problems in statistics. To accommodate the complexity of modern datasets, it is desired to have estimation procedures that not only can incorporate the structural assumptions of covariance matrices, but are also robust to outliers from arbitrary sources. In this paper, we define a new concept called matrix depth and then propose a robust covariance matrix estimator by maximizing the empirical depth function. The proposed estimator is shown to achieve minimax optimal rate under Huber’s $\\varepsilon$-contamination model for estimating covariance/scatter matrices with various structures including bandedness and sparsity.

Summary The primary purpose of this paper is to propose empirical measures of the structural differences between two communities of plants or animals composed of the same species. Structure is defined to consist of; 1) the species in the community, 2) the pattern of interactions as represented by the covariance or correlation matrix of successive observations on each species, and 3) the mean abundances of each species in each of the two communities. Statistical tests are proposed for testing whether the covariance matrices and the vectors of mean densities for each community are equal and empirical measures of the differences between the covariance matrices and mean vectors are proposed. Given unequal covariance or correlation matrices the factor analysis model is used to derive empirical measures of the degree to which each variable of the ecosystem is responsible for the observed defferences in the pattern of interactions in each community. These tests and measures were applied to data gathered by Hunter (1966) on the abundances of six species of Drosophila censused monthly over a period of approximately two and a half years in two adjacent, but different habitats near Bogota, colombia. The two covariance matrices were significantly different indicating different patterns of interactions in the two Drosophila communities.

In this paper, we propose a disturbance covariance matrix estimation method for radar signal processing when the number of training samples is severely limited. Several maximum likelihood (ML) estimation methods based on the structured of the covariance matrix, which is modeled as a sum of an unknown positive semi-definite Hermitian matrix and a matrix proportional to identity, have been proposed to solve the problem. Based on the covariance structure, we incorporate additional constraint on the low rank property of the covariance matrix, and propose a low rank regularized ML estimation method for covariance matrix estimation. The low rank is achieved by solving a reweighted trace minimization problem. Experimental results demonstrate the effective of the proposed method, both in the accuracy of rank estimation and the improvement of signal interference and noise ratio (SINR).

Estimation of the high-dimensional banded covariance matrix is widely used in multivariate statistical analysis. To ensure the validity of estimation, we aim to test the hypothesis that the covariance matrix is banded with a certain bandwidth under the high-dimensional framework. Though several testing methods have been proposed in the literature, the existing tests are only powerful for some alternatives with certain sparsity levels, whereas they may not be powerful for alternatives with other sparsity structures. The goal of this paper is to propose a new test for the bandedness of high-dimensional covariance matrix, which is powerful for alternatives with various sparsity levels. The proposed new test also be used for testing the banded structure of covariance matrices of error vectors in high-dimensional factor models. Based on these statistics, a consistent bandwidth estimator is also introduced for a banded high dimensional covariance matrix. Extensive simulation studies and an application to a prostate cancer dataset from protein mass spectroscopy are conducted for evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive tests blue and bandwidth estimator for the banded covariance matrix.

High dimensional covariance matrices have attracted much attention of statisticians and econometricians during the past decades. Vast literature is devoted to the research in high dimensional covariance matrices. However, most of them are for constant covariance matrices. In many applications, constant covariance matrices are not appropriate, e.g. in portfolio allocation, dynamic covariance matrices would make much more sense. Simply assuming each entry of a covariance matrix is a function of time to introduce a dynamic structure would not work. In this paper, we are going to introduce a class of high dimensional dynamic covariance matrices in which a kind of additive structure is embedded. We will show the proposed high dimensional dynamic covariance matrices have many advantages in applications. An estimation procedure is also proposed to estimate the proposed high dimensional dynamic covariance matrices. Asymptotic properties are built to justify the proposed estimation procedure. Intensive simulation studies show the proposed estimation procedure works very well when sample size is finite. Finally, we apply the proposed high dimensional dynamic covariance matrices, together with the proposed estimation procedure, to portfolio allocation. The results look very interesting.

Estimating large covariance and precision (inverse covariance) matrices has become increasingly important in high dimensional statistics because of its wide applications. The estimation problem is challenging not only theoretically due to the constraint of its positive definiteness, but also computationally because of the curse of dimensionality. Many types of estimators have been proposed such as thresholding under the sparsity assumption of the target matrix, banding and tapering the sample covariance matrix. However, these estimators are not always guaranteed to be positive-definite, especially, for finite samples, and the sparsity assumption is rather restrictive. We propose a novel two-stage adaptive method based on the Cholesky decomposition of a general covariance matrix. By banding the precision matrix in the first stage and adapting the estimates to the second stage estimation, we develop a computationally efficient and statistically accurate method for estimating high dimensional precision matrices. We demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method by simulations from autoregressive, moving average, and long-range dependent processes. We illustrate its wide applicability by analyzing financial data such S&P 500 index and IBM stock returns, and electric power consumption of individual households. The theoretical properties of the proposed method are also investigated within a large class of covariance matrices.

The disturbance covariance matrix in radar space time adaptive processing (STAP) must be estimated from training sample observations. Traditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimators are effective when training is generous but lead to degraded false alarm rates and detection performance in the realistic regime of limited training. We exploit physically motivated constraints such as 1.) rank of the clutter subspace which can be inferred using existing physics based models such as the Brennan rule, and 2.) the Toeplitz constraint that applies to covariance matrices obtained from stationary random processes. We first provide a closed form solution of the rank constrained maximum likelihood (RCML) estimator and then subsequently develop an efficient approximation under joint Toeplitz and rank constraints (EASTR). Experimental results confirm that the proposed EASTR estimators outperform state-of-the-art alternatives in the sense of widely used measures such as the signal to interference and noise ratio (SINR) and probability of detection - particularly when training support is limited.

The covariance matrix, which should be estimated from the data, plays an important role in many multivariate procedures, and its positive definiteness (PDness) is essential for the validity of the procedures. Recently, many regularized estimators have been proposed and shown to be consistent in estimating the true matrix and its support under various structural assumptions on the true covariance matrix. However, they are often not PD. In this paper, we propose a simple modification to make a regularized covariance matrix be PD while preserving its support and the convergence rate. We focus on the matrix $$\ell_{\infty }$$ norm error in covariance matrix estimation because it could allow us to bound the error in the downstream multivariate procedure relying on it. Our proposal in this paper is an extension of the fixed support positive-definite (FSPD) modification by Choi et al. (2019) from spectral and Frobenius norms to the matrix $$\ell_{\infty }$$ norm. Like the original FSPD, we consider a convex combination between the initial estimator (the regularized covariance matrix without PDness) and a given form of the diagonal matrix minimize the $$\ell_{\infty }$$ distance between the initial estimator and the convex combination, and find a closed-form expression for the modification. We apply the procedure to the minimum variance portfolio (MVP) optimization problem and show that the vector $$\ell_{\infty }$$ error in the estimation of the optimal portfolio weight is bounded by the matrix $$\ell _{\infty }$$ error of the plug-in covariance matrix estimator. We illustrate the MVP results with S&P 500 daily returns data from January 1978 to December 2014.

One of the major challenges in multivariate analysis is the estimation of population covariance matrix from the sample covariance matrix (SCM). Most recent covariance matrix estimators use either shrinkage transformations or asymptotic results from Random Matrix Theory (RMT). Both of these techniques try to achieve a similar goal which is to remove noisy correlations and add structure to SCM to overcome the bias-variance trade-off. Both methods have their respective pros and cons. In this paper, we propose an improved estimator which exploits the advantages of these techniques by taking optimally weighted convex combination of covariance matrices estimated by shrinkage transformation and a filter based on RMT. It is a generalized estimator which can adapt to changing sampling noise conditions by performing hyperparameter optimization. Using data from six of the world's biggest stock exchanges, we show that the proposed estimator outperforms the existing estimators in minimizing the out-of-sample risk of the portfolio and hence predicts population statistics more precisely. The proposed estimator can be useful in a wide range of machine learning and signal processing applications. © 1994-2012 IEEE.

Sparse Bayesian factor models are routinely implemented for parsimonious dependence modeling and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional applications. We provide theoretical understanding of such Bayesian procedures in terms of posterior convergence rates in inferring high-dimensional covariance matrices where the dimension can be larger than the sample size. Under relevant sparsity assumptions on the true covariance matrix, we show that commonly-used point mass mixture priors on the factor loadings lead to consistent estimation in the operator norm even when $p\gg n$. One of our major contributions is to develop a new class of continuous shrinkage priors and provide insights into their concentration around sparse vectors. Using such priors for the factor loadings, we obtain similar rate of convergence as obtained with point mass mixture priors. To obtain the convergence rates, we construct test functions to separate points in the space of high-dimensional covariance matrices using insights from random matrix theory; the tools developed may be of independent interest. We also derive minimax rates and show that the Bayesian posterior rates of convergence coincide with the minimax rates upto a $\sqrt{\log n}$ term.

We consider large complex random sample covariance matrices obtained from “spiked populations,” that is, when the true covariance matrix is diagonal with all but finitely many eigenvalues equal to 1. We investigate the limiting behavior of the largest eigenvalues when the population and the sample sizes both become large. Under some conditions on moments of the sample distribution, we prove that the asymptotic fluctuations of the largest eigenvalues are the same as for a complex Gaussian sample with the same true covariance. The real setting is also considered.

As a classical problem, covariance estimation has drawn much attention from the statistical community for decades. Much work has been done under the frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. Aiming to quantify the uncertainty of the estimators without having to choose a prior, we have developed a fiducial approach to the estimation of covariance matrix. Built upon the Fiducial Berstein–von Mises Theorem, we show that the fiducial distribution of the covariate matrix is consistent under our framework. Consequently, the samples generated from this fiducial distribution are good estimators to the true covariance matrix, which enable us to define a meaningful confidence region for the covariance matrix. Lastly, we also show that the fiducial approach can be a powerful tool for identifying clique structures in covariance matrices.

Many contemporary studies involve the classification of a subject into two classes based on n observations of the p variables associated with the subject. Under the assumption that the variables are normally distributed, the well-known linear discriminant analysis (LDA) assumes a common covariance matrix over the two classes while the quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) allows different covariance matrices. When p is much smaller than n, even if they both diverge, the LDA and QDA have the smallest asymptotic misclassification rates for the cases of equal and unequal covariance matrices, respectively. However, modern statistical studies often face classification problems with the number of variables much larger than the sample size n, and the classical LDA and QDA can perform poorly. In fact, we give an example in which the QDA performs as poorly as random guessing even if we know the true covariances. Under some sparsity conditions on the unknown means and covariance matrices of the two classes, we propose a sparse QDA based on thresholding that has the smallest asymptotic misclassification rate conditional on the training data. We discuss an example of classifying normal and tumor colon tissues based on a set of p = 2; 000 genes and a sample of size n = 62, and another example of a cardiovascular study for n = 222 subjects with p = 2; 434 genes. A simulation is also conducted to check the performance of the proposed method.