Explainable machine learning models for defects detection in industrial processes

Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality in the intensive care unit. Early prediction of sepsis can reduce the overall mortality rate and cost of sepsis treatment. Some studies have predicted mortality and development of sepsis using machine learning models. However, there is a gap between the creation of different machine learning algorithms and their implementation in clinical practice.This study utilized data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III. We established and compared the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM).A total of 3937 sepsis patients were included, with 34.3% mortality in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III group. In our comparison of 5 machine learning models (GBDT, LR, KNN, RF, and SVM), the GBDT model showed the best performance with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.992), recall (94.8%), accuracy (95.4%), and F1 score (0.933). The RF, SVM, and KNN models showed better performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.980, 0.898, and 0.877, respectively) than the LR (0.876).The GBDT model showed better performance than other machine learning models (LR, KNN, RF, and SVM) in predicting the mortality of patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit. This could be used to develop a clinical decision support system in the future.

Blood pressure abnormality detection and Interpretation utilizing Explainable Artificial Intelligence

In recent times, it has been observed that social media exerts a favorable influence on consumer purchasing behavior. Many organizations are adopting the utilization of social media platforms as a means to promote products and services. Hence, it is crucial for enterprises to understand the consumer buying behavior in order to thrive. This article presents a novel approach that combines the theory of planned behavior (TPB) with machine learning techniques to develop accurate predictive models for consumer purchase behavior. This study examines three distinct factors of the theory of planned behavior (attitude, social norm, and perceived behavioral control) that provide insights into the primary determinants influencing online purchasing behavior. A total of eight machine learning algorithms, namely K-nearest neighbor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, AdaBoost, and Gradient Boosting, were utilized in order to forecast consumer purchasing behavior. Empirical findings indicate that gradient boosting demonstrates superior performance in predicting customer buying behavior, with an accuracy rate of 0.91 and a macro F1 score of 0.91. This holds true when all factors, namely attitude (ATTD), social norm (SN), and perceived behavioral control (PBC), are included in the analysis. Furthermore, we incorporated Explainable AI (XAI), specifically LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations), to elucidate how the best machine learning model (i.e. gradient boosting) makes its prediction. The findings indicate that LIME has demonstrated a high level of confidence in accurately predicting the influence of low and high behavior. The outcome presented in this article has several implications. For instance, this article presents a novel way to combine the theory of planned behavior with machine learning techniques in order to predict consumer purchase behavior. This integration allows for a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing online purchasing decisions. Also, the incorporation of Explainable AI enhances the transparency and interpretability of the model. This feature is valuable for organizations seeking insights into factors driving predictions and the reasons behind certain outcomes. Moreover, these observations have the potential to offer valuable insights for businesses in customizing their marketing strategies to align with these influential factors.

Machine learning-based landslide susceptibility assessment with optimized ratio of landslide to non-landslide samples

This study presents a comprehensive methodology for developing a Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) system for an industrial distillation column using advanced machine learning algorithms. Steady state and dynamic simulations in Aspen Plus® generate extensive datasets under normal and faulty conditions. Feature engineering, using the Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm, selects the most relevant features for fault detection. Various machine learning models, including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, k-nearest Neighbours, and Neural Networks, were trained and evaluated based on performance metrics such as accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score. The top models were integrated into a stacked classifier system with a voting mechanism to enhance fault detection reliability. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, such as Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), were incorporated to improve model interpretability, allowing engineers to understand and validate the FDD system's decision-making process. Simulation results confirm that the proposed methodology accurately identifies and classifies faults. By integrating dynamic simulations, advanced machine learning, and XAI techniques, a robust and scalable solution is achieved for fault detection in distillation columns, improving operational reliability, safety, and reducing downtime. Future work could extend this approach to other industrial processes and explore additional machine learning algorithms to further enhance performance.

Significant advancements have been achieved recently in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to solve healthcare-related problems. A potential method for identifying and treating many illnesses is machine learning (ML). The “Breast Cancer Dataset” was used in this work to perform classification tasks using ML techniques including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) for identifying the forms of breast cancer, either Benign or Malignant. The SVM, RF, and MLP achieved impressive PR scores exceeding 0.98. However, MLP exhibited superior performance among these algorithms, achieving an exceptional AUC value of 99.71. Conversely, SVM slightly outperformed the other algorithms in terms of training accuracy, with a value of 97.90%. This work used shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) to shed light on how these categorization algorithms made judgments. These interpretability methodologies showed that the majority of characteristics consistently predicted the presence of malignant or benign cancer types. This study demonstrates how ML algorithms' decision-making procedures may be understood, possibly promoting the use of ML in clinical settings for medical diagnosis.

Undernutrition among children under the age of five is a major public health concern, especially in developing countries. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict undernutrition and identify its associated factors. Secondary data analysis of the 2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) was performed using R and Python. The main outcomes of interest were undernutrition (stunting: height-for-age (HAZ) < -2 SD; wasting: weight-for-height (WHZ) < -2 SD; and underweight: weight-for-age (WAZ) < -2 SD). Seven ML algorithms were trained and tested: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic model, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The ML models were evaluated using the accuracy, confusion matrix, and area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristics (ROC). In total, 8564 children were included in the final analysis. The average age of the children was 926 days, and the majority were females. The weighted prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 17%, 7%, and 12%, respectively. The accuracies of all the ML models for wasting were (LDA: 84%; Logistic: 95%; SVM: 92%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 84%, XGBoost: 98%), stunting (LDA: 86%; Logistic: 86%; SVM: 98%; RF: 88%; LASSO: 86%; Ridge: 86%, XGBoost: 98%), and for underweight were (LDA: 90%; Logistic: 92%; SVM: 98%; RF: 89%; LASSO: 92%; Ridge: 88%, XGBoost: 98%). The AUC values of the wasting models were (LDA: 99%; Logistic: 100%; SVM: 72%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 99%; Ridge: 59%, XGBoost: 100%), for stunting were (LDA: 89%; Logistic: 90%; SVM: 100%; RF: 92%; LASSO: 90%; Ridge: 89%, XGBoost: 100%), and for underweight were (LDA: 95%; Logistic: 96%; SVM: 100%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 82%, XGBoost: 82%). Age, weight, length/height, sex, region of residence and ethnicity were important predictors of wasting, stunting and underweight. The XGBoost model was the best model for predicting wasting, stunting, and underweight. The findings showed that different ML algorithms could be useful for predicting undernutrition and identifying important predictors for targeted interventions among children under five years in Ghana.

Radiomics and machine learning have been extensively utilized in the realm of urinary stones, particularly in forecasting stone treatment outcomes. The objective of this study was to integrate clinical variables and radiomic features to develop a machine learning model for predicting the stone-free rate (SFR) following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL).A total of 212 eligible patients who underwent PCNL surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were included in a retrospective analysis. Preoperative clinical variables and non-contrast-enhanced CT images of all patients were collected, and radiomic features were extracted after delineating the stone ROI. Univariate analysis was conducted to identify clinical variables strongly correlated with the stone-free rate after PCNL, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (lasso regression) was utilized to screen radiomic features. Four supervised machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), were employed. The clinical variables with strong correlation and screened radiomic features were integrated into the four machine learning algorithms to construct a prediction model, and the receiver operating curve was plotted. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), the accuracy rate, the specificity, etc., were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the four models.After analyzing postoperative statistics, the stone-free rate following the procedure was found to be 70.3% (n = 149). Among the various clinical variables examined, factors, such as stone number, stone diameter, stone CT value, stone location, and history of stone surgery, were identified as statistically significant in relation to the stone-free rate after PCNL. A total of 121 radiomic features were extracted, and through lasso regression, 7 features most closely associated with the stone-free rate post-PCNL were identified. The predictive accuracy of different models (Logistic Regression, RF, XGBoost, and GBDT) for determining the stone-free rate after PCNL was evaluated, yielding accuracies of 78.1%, 76.6%, 75.0%, and 73.4%, respectively. The corresponding area under the curve AUC (95%CI) were 0.85 (0.83-0.89), 0.81 (0.76-0.85), 0.82 (0.78-0.85), and 0.77 (0.73-0.81), positioning these models among the top performers in logistic regression prediction. In terms of predictive importance scores, the key factors identified by the logistic regression model were number of stone, zone percentage, stone diameter, and surface area. Similarly, the RF model highlighted number of stone, stone CT value, stone diameter, and surface area as the top predictors.Among the four machine learning models, the logistic regression model demonstrated the highest accuracy and discrimination ability in predicting the stone-free rate following PCNL. In comparison to XGBoost and GBDT, RF also exhibited superior accuracy and a certain level of discrimination ability. However, based on the performance of all four models, logistic regression is more likely to aid in clinical decision-making by assisting clinicians in diagnosing PCNL in patients. This enables us to effectively predict the presence of residual stones post-surgery and ultimately select patients who are suitable candidates for PCNL.

Accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality for patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) complicated by respiratory failure admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains a critical challenge. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict this risk and compare its performance with conventional scoring systems. In this retrospective study, data from 164 patients with SCAP and respiratory failure admitted to the ICU between January 2017 and January 2024 were analyzed. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 114) and a validation (test) set (n = 50). Forty-five clinical features collected at admission were used as candidate predictors. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was employed for feature selection. Six ML models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Decision Tree(DT),Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression(LR), were constructed and evaluated.Use SHAP analysis to assess the contribution of each feature in a machine learning model. Construct a nomogram using the top six most influential features. The GBDT model demonstrated the best predictive performance, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.757-0.927) in the internal validation set, significantly outperforming the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II, AUC = 0.70). Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed mortality risks, particularly across the mid-probability range. Decision curve analysis indicated that the model provided a higher net benefit than "treat-all" and "treat-none" strategies across a broad range of threshold probabilities. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified lactate, D-dimer, temperature, albumin, Prothrombin Time and Fraction of Inspired Oxygen as the six most influential predictors of in-hospital mortality. Based on these key predictors, we further developed a simplified nomogram to facilitate bedside risk estimation. The GBDT ML model, developed from routinely available clinical data, provides a highly accurate and clinically interpretable tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in SCAP patients with respiratory failure. It outperforms traditional severity scores and holds promise for assisting clinicians in risk stratification and early intervention.

Climate change is causing permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to degrade, triggering thermokarst hazards and impacting the environment. Despite their ecological importance, the distribution and risks of thermokarst lakes are not well understood due to complex influencing factors. In this study, we introduced a new interpretable ensemble learning method designed to improve the global and local interpretation of susceptibility assessments for thermokarst lakes. Our primary aim was to offer scientific support for precisely evaluating areas prone to thermokarst lake formation. In the thermokarst lake susceptibility assessment, we identified ten conditioning factors related to the formation and distribution of thermokarst lakes. In this highly accurate stacking model, the primary learning units were the random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (EXTs), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithms. Meanwhile, gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs) were employed as the secondary learning unit. Based on the stacking model, we assessed thermokarst lake susceptibility and validated accuracy through six evaluation indices. We examined the interpretability of the stacking model using three interpretation methods: accumulated local effects (ALE), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The results showed that the ensemble learning stacking model demonstrated superior performance and the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 91.20% of the total thermokarst hazard points fell within the high and very high susceptible areas, encompassing 20.08% of the permafrost expanse in the QTP. The conclusive findings revealed that slope, elevation, the topographic wetness index (TWI), and precipitation were the primary factors influencing the assessment of thermokarst lake susceptibility. This comprehensive analysis extends to the broader impacts of thermokarst hazards, with the identified high and very high susceptibility zones affecting significant stretches of railway and highway infrastructure, substantial soil organic carbon reserves, and vast alpine grasslands. This interpretable ensemble learning model, which exhibits high accuracy, offers substantial practical significance for project route selection, construction, and operation in the QTP.

Heart disease remains a major global health challenge, underscoring the need for predictive models that are both accurate and interpretable to support early diagnosis and clinical decision-making. Using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) in this study allowed for a deeper level of understanding of model predictions as well as provided viable alternative ways to overcome the challenges associated with black-box classifiers. Using a soft-voting ensemble technique that combined representations for Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) was applied to evaluate a publicly available heart disease dataset, containing 5110 records with each record containing 76 attributes. A total of 14 clinically relevant features were identified and evaluated using an 80/20 train-test split for the experimental setup, with results further validated by 5-fold cross-validation. The proposed soft-voting ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 89.10%, precision of 83.90%, recall of 95.20%, and F1-score of 89.90%, out-performing all individual baseline models and many of the recent XAI-enhanced deep learning models. The combination of SHAP and LIME allowed for both global and local interpretations of the model’s outputs, providing interpretable insights as to features like cp, thal, ca, and oldpeak contributed to the predictions and aligning these features with known cardiovascular risk factors. The results of this research demonstrate how interpretable (or explainable) ensemble-learning mechanisms can confer highly reliable, clinically useful heart disease risk predictions.

How urban air quality affects land values: Exploring non-linear and threshold mechanism using explainable artificial intelligence

Prediction of retained placenta in holstein dairy cows based on machine learning approaches: Comparative analysis of risk factors and predictive algorithms.

Diabetes is a chronic disease that continues to be a primary and worldwide health concern since the health of the entire population has been affected by it. Over the years, many academics have attempted to develop a reliable diabetes prediction model using machine learning (ML) algorithms. However, these research investigations have had a minimal impact on clinical practice as the current studies focus mainly on improving the performance of complicated ML models while ignoring their explainability to clinical situations. Therefore, the physicians find it difficult to understand these models and rarely trust them for clinical use. In this study, a carefully constructed, efficient, and interpretable diabetes detection method using an explainable AI has been proposed. The Pima Indian diabetes dataset was used, containing a total of 768 instances where 268 are diabetic, and 500 cases are non-diabetic with several diabetic attributes. Here, six machine learning algorithms (artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), AdaBoost, XGBoost) have been used along with an ensemble classifier to diagnose the diabetes disease. For each machine learning model, global and local explanations have been produced using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), which are represented in different types of graphs to help physicians in understanding the model predictions. The balanced accuracy of the developed weighted ensemble model was 90% with a F1 score of 89% using a five-fold cross-validation (CV). The median values were used for the imputation of the missing values and the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTETomek) was used to balance the classes of the dataset. The proposed approach can improve the clinical understanding of a diabetes diagnosis and help in taking necessary action at the very early stages of the disease.

In the field of network security, botnet attacks pose a significant challenge, exploiting networks of infected devices to launch sophisticated threats. As these attacks evolve, the need for effective detection methods becomes increasingly critical. This study proposes an explainable Machine Learning (ML) model that aims to identify and categorize botnet attacks, and it investigates the efficiency of different Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques for Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). To train our models, we employed a subset of the NCC-2 dataset, which includes a mix of normal traffic and seven different types of botnet attacks across three sensors. The ML techniques selected for this research are Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), Decision Tree (DT), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), with a GridSearch cross-validation approach for optimal hyperparameter tuning. We also explored the effects of class balance through Synthetic Minority Oversampling (SMOTE) and Random Undersampling. The models’ performance was rigorously tested using the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and Macro F1-score, with the ET model demonstrating superior results of 99% MCC and 97% F1-score, respectively. To enhance the interpretability of the ET model’s decision-making process, we integrated three XAI techniques: SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Dalex, and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), and evaluated their efficiency. The LIME and Dalex techniques showed efficient construction times for IDS.