Explaining COVID-19 dynamics through user activity data from digital platforms with Yandex’s self-isolation index as a case study

Objective:To report alcohol consumption during the first month of social home-isolation and physical distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in an public University in Mid-West Brazil.Methods:We designed an online observational study. Initial data of 2166 participants was obtained between April and May, 2020, less than a month after University’s measures of social distancing with remote work and classes. We used Poisson regression model with robust variance to identify the significant factors associated with self-reported increase in alcohol consumption during social and physical distancing measures.Results:Increased alcohol consumption during social and physical distancing was reported by 22.9% of 1371 alcohol drinkers. Factors associated with reporting increased alcoholic consumption during University’s physical and social distancing measures were: not professing any religion (1.52, 95% CI 1.25-1.83), having signs/symptom suggesting SARS-COV-2 infection (1.56, 95% CI 1.26-1.93), missing social interaction with peers carried out without any mediating technology (1.57, 95% CI 1.13-2.20), experiencing financial distress/hardship (1.25, 95% CI 1.02-1.54), perceiving duration of social isolation as long (1.62, 95% CI 1.10-2.41), reporting worsening of emotional/mental wellbeing (1.76, 95% CI 1.34-2.33), and previous psychological disorders (1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.52).Conclusions:This study highlights several individual, psychological, and social determinants of increase in consumption of alcoholic beverages during physical and social distancing measures due to the pandemic and the results may reflect the presence of emotional changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It urges that sanitary authorities adopt measures to avoid excessive alcohol consumption during social distancing measures.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic involved business closures (e.g., gyms), social distancing policies, and prolonged stressful situations that may have impacted engagement in health behaviors. Our study assessed changes in cancer-related health behaviors during the pandemic, specifically physical activity, fruit/vegetable intake, smoking/tobacco use, and alcohol consumption.MethodsEight cancer centers administered mailed/web-based/telephone surveys between June 2020 and March 2021. Surveys assessed demographics, perceptions on social distancing, and self-reported changes of behaviors (less/same/more) associated with cancer prevention or risk, e.g., physical activity, fruit/vegetable intake, tobacco/smoking use, and alcohol consumption. Descriptive analyses and logistic regression models assessed association of variables with behavior change.ResultsMost of the 21,911 respondents reported adhering to at least 4(of 5) social distancing measures (72%) and indicated social distancing was very/somewhat important to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (91%). 35% of respondents reported less physical activity, 11% reported less fruit/vegetable intake, 27% reported more smoking/tobacco use (among those who used tobacco/smoking products in past 30 days), and 23% reported more alcohol consumption (among those who reported at least 1 drink in past 30 days) than before the pandemic. Urban residence, younger age, female gender, and worse general health were associated with less physical activity, less fruit/vegetable intake, more smoking/tobacco use, and more alcohol intake. Higher educational attainment was associated with less physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake and more alcohol consumption. Reporting social distancing as important and adhering to more COVID-19 safety practices were associated with less physical activity and more alcohol consumption.ConclusionOur findings suggest that certain demographics and those who adhered to social distancing measures were more likely to self-report unfavorable changes in health behaviors during the pandemic. Future studies should examine if the behaviors returned to baseline following relief from pandemic restrictions, and if these behavior changes are associated with increased cancer incidence and mortality.

Compliance, Barriers, and Facilitators to Social Distancing Measures for Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Northwest Ethiopia, 2020

The outbreak the SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) virus has resulted in over 6.5 million cases of COVID19, greatly stressing global healthcare infrastructure. Lacking medical prophylactic measures to combat disease spread, many nations have adopted social distancing policies in order to mitigate transmission of CoV-2. While mathematical models have suggested the efficacy of social distancing to curb the spread of CoV-2, there is a lack of systematic studies to quantify the real-world efficacy of these approaches. Here, we first demonstrate that implementation of social distancing policies in US states corresponded with a reduction in COVID19 spread rates, and that the reduction in spread rate is proportional to the average change in mobility. We validate this observation on a worldwide scale by analyzing COVID19 spread rate in 134 nations with varying social distancing policies. Globally, we find that social distancing policies significantly reduced the COVID19 spread rate, with resulting in an estimated 65% reduction (95% CI = 39–80%) in new COVID19 cases over a two week time period. These data suggest that social distancing policies may be a powerful tool to prevent spread of COVID19 in real-world scenarios.

<h3>Background</h3> Gastrointestinal manifestations of the COVID-19 pandemic may mimic Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), and social distancing measures may affect IBS patients negatively. We aimed to study the impact of COVID-19...

In recent years, we have witnessed a rapid and profound growth of urban population. The challenge to improve the quality of the urban environment is becoming increasingly important. Competition among the cities for highly skilled workforce, companies, investors, and even international events is also growing. With the advancement in modern technologies, especially IT, the Internet of things and big data, the creation of a “smart city” seems to be an excellent opportunity for the urban development. More and more cities are striving to follow this path, and Novosibirsk – the third largest city in Russia – is not an exception. This article analyzes the concept of a smart city, the advantages and barriers that impede the creation of a “smart city”, and considers the prospects of Novosibirsk as a “smart city”. The article suggests possible ways for Novosibirsk development as a “smart city”.

CoronaBio: Using Crowdsourcing for Biomedical Research on COVID-19 to Manage a Pandemic

Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures. This work uses mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future COVID-19 waves. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model describing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in NEL, calibrated to data on hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospital discharges and in-hospital deaths in NEL during the first epidemic wave. To account for the uncertainty in both the infectiousness period and the proportion of symptomatic infection, we simulated nine scenarios for different combinations of infectiousness period (1, 3 and 5 days) and proportion of symptomatic infection (70%, 50% and 25% of all infections). Across all scenarios, the calibrated model was used to assess the risk of occurrence and predict the strength and timing of a second COVID-19 wave under varying levels of daily contact rate from July 04, 2020. Specifically, the daily contact rate required to suppress the epidemic and prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, and the daily contact rate required to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL system without any additional intervention measures after July 2020, were determined across the nine different scenarios. Our results caution against a full relaxing of the lockdown later in 2020, predicting that a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of social contact from July 04, 2020, would induce a second wave up to eight times the original wave. With different levels of ongoing social distancing, future resurgence can be avoided, or the strength of the resurgence can be mitigated. Keeping the daily contact rate lower than 5 or 6, depending on scenarios, can prevent an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, could keep the effective reproduction number Re below 1 and a secondary COVID-19 wave may be avoided in NEL. A daily contact rate between 6 and 7, across scenarios, is likely to increase Re above 1 and result in a secondary COVID-19 wave with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and associated deaths, but with demand for hospital-based care remaining within the bed capacity of the NEL health and care system. In contrast, an increase in daily contact rate above 8 to 9, depending on scenarios, will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in NEL and may potentially require additional lockdowns. This scenario is associated with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, and acute COVID-19 care demand is likely to require significant scaling down of the usual operation of the health and care system and should be avoided. Our findings suggest that to avoid future COVID-19 waves and to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL health and care system, maintaining social distancing in NEL is advised with a view to limiting the average number of social interactions in the population. Increasing the level of social interaction beyond the limits described in this work could result in future COVID-19 waves that will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in the system, and depending on the strength of the resurgence may require additional lockdown measures.

State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy's impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.

ObjectiveTo determine the relationship between per capita income and COVID-19 cases in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties of Florida, USA. BackgroundLow socioeconomic status predisposes individuals to worse health outcomes. For example, during the 2003 SARS-CoV pandemic and the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic disadvantaged individuals were more likely to become infected. More recently, a study found that deaths due to COVID-19 were associated with disadvantaged areas across the United States. South Florida, in particular Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, has experienced a significant burden of coronavirus cases. Investigating the association of income on coronavirus cases in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties may aid in identifying and treating those individuals at increased risk. MethodsThis retrospective cross-sectional study used data gathered by the Florida Department of Health and 2018 U.S. Census. COVID-19 cases from March 2 - November 1, 2020 were tallied by ZIP code in Florida’s Broward and Miami-Dade Counties and scaled per housing unit. An exhaustive regression analysis using County “Miami-Dade” or “Broward,” sex, race, ethnicity, median age, and estimated per capita income was performed for each combination of independent variables in MATLAB (MathWorks, Natick, USA). Regression models were evaluated using both adjusted R-squared and the Akaike Information Criterion, along with the number of significant predictors. The most optimal model with the highest number of significant predictors was selected.ResultsAmong all other variables, sex, race, and ethnicity as the variables that best predicted COVID-19 cases per housing unit within a certain ZIP code. The adjusted R-squared of this optimal model was 0.5062, indicating that within each ZIP code in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties 50.62% of the variance in COVID-19 cases per housing unit can be explained by these variables. A significant relationship was found between the number of COVID-19 cases and individuals who were Black or African American (p < 0.001), individuals who were Hispanic or Latino (p < 0.001), and male to female ratio (p = 0.016). Per capita income, age, and county were not statistically significant predictors in any model tested.ConclusionsRacial and gender disparities may be more significant contributors to COVID-19 cases than per capita income in housing units. Based on the results of this study, investigators may consider applying this model to similar variables in order to inform the management and prevention of cases in the present and future pandemics.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, care homes for older adults in England implemented isolation, social distancing and other restriction measures to help protect residents from contracting the virus. Little was known about the physical and psychological impacts that these measures would have upon residents and their relatives. To explore the experiences of residents and their relatives of living restricted lives during the pandemic. This qualitative study was conducted as part of a 12-month, mixed-methods, phased design. From six purposively sampled care homes in England, 17 purposively sampled residents (all older adults) and 17 purposively sampled relatives participated in an individual, on-line interview, where they discussed their experiences of the restrictive measures implemented within their care home. Interviews were audio- and video-recorded with participants' permission and analysed using an inductive orientation to thematic analysis, with coding and theme development driven by the data content. Participants' experiences of care home restrictions varied; their impact was influenced by the existing pattern of relationships that residents and their relatives maintained within and beyond the care home. It was further influenced by the fact that many residents and relatives were still learning how to manage their relationships in the new context of living in a care home. Social distancing measures made care homes feel less homely and denied residents, staff and relatives physical touch and other forms of non-verbal communication. Many residents expressed a broad sense of gratitude that was associated with safety and well-being beyond the pandemic. As older adults, they put the pandemic, and its associated restrictions, within the larger context of their lives. Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic is paramount for governments, societies, policy makers, care home providers, care homes and their staff, residents and their families and friends, and researchers. Our study makes an important contribution as one of the first to study the impact of implementing isolation, social distancing and other restrictive measures for care home residents and their relatives in England.

Social distancing was planned as a preventive measure to control the extensive spread of COVID-19. COVID-19-related deaths in Brazil were analyzed during the period of social distancing measures. Mortality data for COVID-19 was obtained from the Worldometer website. Deaths were estimated up to the 31st day after the occurrence of the 5th COVID-19-related death in Brazil. Social distance was measured using Google's community mobility reports. The Brazilian epidemic curves were interconnected, and mathematical models were evaluated to fit the mortality estimation curves. The optimistic model was defined in the opening period of social distancing and, therefore, in the lower mobility (40-60%). The realistic model was calculated according to relaxed social distance measures (&lt;40%) and the pessimistic model was calculated based on the transmission rate between 2-3. Thus, the equations of the mathematical models provided the outcomes for the date of June 9, 2020, as follows: realistic model with 40,623 deaths, pessimistic model with 64,310 deaths and the optimistic model with a projection of 31,384 deaths. As a result of these analyzes, on May 24, 2020, there were a total of 22,965 deaths related to COVID-19, and those deaths included within the proposed mathematical models were 17,452 for the optimistic model, 22,623 for the realistic model and 32,825 for the pessimistic model. Thus, it is concluded that social distancing measures promoted by the Brazilian public managers contributes to the reduction in approximately ten thousand deaths related to COVID-19 in the current pandemic scenario.

BackgroundSocial distancing policies work in different ways and at different levels. In addition, various forms of monitoring systems have been implemented in different countries. However, there is an almost complete lack of specific monitoring system in Republic of Korea to effectively monitor social distancing measures compliance and outcome. This study aims to develop a monitoring system for social distancing measures compliance and outcome in Korea to evaluate and improve the implemented policy.MethodsA draft monitoring system was developed after reviewing Korea’s social distancing measures (central and local government briefings) and checking available data about social distancing behavior. The modified Delphi process was used to evaluate the draft of the social distancing monitoring system. In total, 27 experts participated in the evaluation. The round 1 evaluation includes (1) commenting on the composition of the monitoring fields (open response), (2) monitoring indicators for each monitoring field (10-point Likert scale), and (3) commenting on the source of data used to develop the monitoring system (open response). In the round 2 evaluation, 55 indicators, excepting open responses, were re-evaluated.ResultsThe response rate for the Delphi survey was 100% in both the first and second rounds. Of the 55 indicators, 1 indicator, which did not satisfy the quantitative criteria, was excluded. According to the experts’ open response comments, 15 indicators were excluded, as these indicators overlapped with other indicators or had little relevance to social distancing. Instead, 23 new indicators were added. Finally, 62 indicators were included with 12 available data sources. The monitoring system domain was divided into ‘social distancing measures state, social distancing measures compliance, social distancing outcome’.ConclusionsThis study is significant in that it is the first in Korea to develop a comprehensive monitoring system for checking if social distancing measures are being followed well, and is applicable to estimates utilizing data that are immediately available for each indicator. Furthermore, the developed monitoring system could be a reference for other countries that require the development of such systems to monitor social distancing.

Shen et al. (2021) investigate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on criminal incidents in Japan between April and May, 2020, employing two empirical approaches, the difference-in-differences (DID) and event study approaches, where they set the start of the incidence (treatment) to April. They find that the COVID-19 lockdown reduced violent and property crime by 12.7% and 20.9%, respectively. Shen et al. provide a timely analysis of an important research question, and has at least two important contributions in the literature. First, this is the first study on the impact of COVID-19 on criminal incidents in the Japanese context. COVID-19 and the associated mitigation policies had an enormous influence on society, affecting a wide range of areas, including the economy, politics, culture, and crime. Timely assessments of the impact on crime have an important implication for designing further public policy responses to infectious disease pandemics. The impact of COVID-19 differs across countries, and each government adopted different policy measures. It is thus essential to evaluate the impact in various countries. Second, there is an extensive literature on the socio-economic determinants of crime, and Shen et al. add an important insight to this prior research. Prior studies show that various economic variables affect one's decision to commit a crime, including risk preference, income, opportunity costs, and unemployment (Brosnan, 2018). Shen et al. argue that the voluntary lockdown in Japan positively affected the demand side of crime through various direct and indirect channels. This indicates that COVID-19 would affect different types of crimes differently. Consistent with the theoretical explanations, Shen et al.'s empirical results show that the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on crime differs according to the type of crime; the largest impact is on breaking-and-entering and there is no significant change in homicide. One of their interesting findings is the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 by age group on criminal incidents, showing young individuals are the most effected. There would be two other potentially interesting differences in the impact: heterogeneity by region and by gender. The data used in the analysis is Hanzai Tokei (Crime Statistics), which reports the number of criminal incidents by prefecture. I hypothesize that the crime impacts could differ by the number of COVID-19 cases, with a greater impact in prefectures with more cases, as people are more likely to engage in precautionary behavior, including social distancing. Analyzing the impact using prefecture-level panel data sets would provide useful insights to understand the mechanisms and to obtain policy implications, particularly, given the differences in the timing of the state of emergency declarations across prefectures. In addition, utilizing human mobility data from mobile phones is becoming common in COVID-19-related analyses. Using such data would provide a detailed picture of the relationship between social distancing policies and crimes. Furthermore, it is well documented that the effect of COVID-19 differs by gender (Alon et al., 2020), which may result in a difference in crime rates. Given the finding of a decrease in sexual assaults, exploring the impact by gender may provide additional useful evidence to inform public policy to strengthen targeted interventions. One important remark is that Shen et al. assess the short-term impact rather than the medium- to long-term impact of COVID-19 on crime. The impact could differ in the medium- to long-term, as the prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic affected individuals and society differently than it did in the initial phase of the pandemic. In particular, one of the indirect channels of the reduction in crime incidents, the mental health channel, may be different given the reported increase in the suicide rate in the second wave of the pandemic (Tanaka & Okamoto, 2021). Finally, we should note that the analysis is based on police data, which are subject to under- or non-reporting of specific types of crimes, such as serious assaults occurring at home (Boman & Gallupe, 2020; Leslie & Wilson, 2020).

The development of smart cities is a clear growing trend all around the world. The convergence of different technological, social, political, economical, and ecological trends has allowed the concepts to rise up quickly in governmental agendas. In this paper, we analyze the situation of Russia regarding smart cities. Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Kazan are considered at the “Smart City 3.0” stage of development, meaning that the citizens are participating in their advancement. Our reasons to focus on Russia are two-fold: (1) we know the situation well, as we live and work in a new city, Innopolis, founded in 2015 and meant to be a blueprint for smart cities; (2) large Russian cities are actively developing projects in this sphere and are highly regarded worldwide in these endeavors. It is therefore worth analyzing the context and the trends. By studying the scientific literature and categorizing the features of smart cities the world over, we found that large Russian cities are developing most of the components necessary in order to be called smart. Herein we also discuss areas of possible growth for Russian cities, such as green technologies and a smart environment.