Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Chart for Skewed Distribution

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts are consistently used for the detection of small shifts contrary to Shewhart charts, which are commonly used for the detection of large shifts in the process. There are many interesting features of EWMA charts that have been studied for complete data in the literature. The aim of present study is to introduce and compare the double exponentially weighted moving average (DEWMA) and EWMA control charts under type-I censoring for Poisson-exponential distribution. The monitoring of mean level shifts using censored data is of a great interest in many applied problems. Moreover, a new idea of conditional median is introduced and further compared with the existing conditional expected values approach for monitoring the small mean level shifts. The performance of the DEWMA and EWMA charts is evaluated using the average run length, expected quadratic loss, and performance comparison index measures. The optimum sample size comparisons for the specified and unspecified parameters are also part of this study. Two applications for practical considerations are also discussed. It is observed that different censoring rates and the size of shifts significantly affect the performance of the EWMA and DEWMA charts. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rational subgroups of size n = 1 are frequently encountered in process monitoring and control. The Shewhart control chart for individuals is often used in these situations. It is well-known that the in-control average run length (ARL) of this chart is 370.4 under the assumption that the observations are selected at random from a normal population. When the assumption of normality is violated, the ARL of the individuals control chart is adversely affected. We show that an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart can be designed so that it is robust to the normality assumption, that is, so that the in-control ARL is reasonably close to the normal-theory value for both skewed and heavy-tailed symmetric non-normal distributions. The EWMA chart also performs quite well in detecting shifts in the process mean.

ABSTRACTRuns rules are usually used with Shewhart-type charts to enhance the charts' sensitivities toward small and moderate shifts. Abbas et al. in 2011 took it a step further by proposing two runs rules schemes, applied to the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart and evaluated their average run length (ARL) performances using simulation. They showed that the proposed schemes are superior to the classical EWMA chart and other schemes being investigated. Besides pointing out some erroneous ARL and standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) computations in Abbas et al., this paper presents a Markov chain approach for computing the ARL, percentiles of the run length (RL) distribution and SDRL, for the two runs rules schemes of Abbas et al. Using Markov chain, we also propose two combined runs rules EWMA schemes to quicken the two schemes of Abbas et al. in responding to large shifts. The runs rules (basic and combined rules) EWMA schemes will be compared with some existing control charting methods, where the former charts are shown to prevail.

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts with variable sampling intervals (VSIs) have been shown to be substantially quicker than the fixed sampling intervals (FSI) EWMA control charts in detecting process mean shifts. The usual assumption for designing a control chart is that the data or measurements are normally distributed. However, this assumption may not be true for some processes. In the present paper, the performances of the EWMA and combined X¯–EWMA control charts with VSIs are evaluated under non-normality. It is shown that adding the VSI feature to the EWMA control charts results in very substantial decreases in the expected time to detect shifts in process mean under both normality and non-normality. However, the combined X¯–EWMA chart has its false alarm rate and its detection ability is affected if the process data are not normally distributed.

Statistical process control (SPC) is the method that monitors process quality characteristics. Through control charts, one can detect whether the present process malfunction. However, some annoyances may arise while the engineers need to choose appropriately control chart under different levels of process variation. The Shewhart, cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been widely used for monitoring semiconductor manufacturing processes. Generally weighted moving average (GWMA) control chart is a new method of SPC, which was proposed by Sheu and Lin (2003). The main objective of this research is using step-by-step procedures to present a comparative study of the monitoring performance for Shewhart, CUSUM, EWMA and GWMA control charts. According to a specified in-control average run length (ARL), we determine the parameters of each control chart based on the Monte Carlo numerical simulation. The setting parameters in each control chart sre displayed and tabulated. While the process means or the process standard deviations are changing in different levels, the performance of each weighted control chart can be then compared by using the ARL. A rule of thumb for selecting better control schemes is provided as a truthfully reference to help engineers in choosing the more appropriate control charts immediately when the assignable causes occurred.

ABSTRACTControl charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having non-normal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used in such circumstances. In this paper, we propose a new variance chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process variance shifts. We explore the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculate the average run lengths (ARLs) of the proposed variance chart. Furthermore, an arcsine transformed exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is proposed because the ARLs of this modified chart are more intuitive and reasonable than those of the variance chart. We compare the out-of-control variance detection performance of the proposed variance chart with that of the non-parametric Mood variance (NP-M) chart with runs rules, developed by Zombade and Ghute [Nonparametric control chart for variability using runs rules. Experiment. 2014;24(4):1683–1691], and the nonparametric likelihood ratio-based distribution-free exponential weighted moving average (NLE) chart and the combination of traditional exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) mean and EWMA variance (CEW) control chart proposed by Zou and Tsung [Likelihood ratio-based distribution-free EWMA control charts. J Qual Technol. 2010;42(2):174–196] by considering cases in which the critical quality characteristic has a normal, a double exponential or a uniform distribution. Comparison results showed that the proposed chart performs better than the NP-M with runs rules, and the NLE and CEW control charts. A numerical example of service times with a right-skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch in Taiwan is used to illustrate the application of the proposed variance chart and of the arcsine transformed EWMA chart and to compare them with three existing variance (or standard deviation) charts. The proposed charts show better detection performance than those three existing variance charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process variance.

Cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts are commonly used for monitoring the process mean. In this paper, a new hybrid EWMA (HEWMA) control chart is proposed by mixing two EWMA control charts. An interesting feature of the proposed control chart is that the traditional Shewhart and EWMA control charts are its special cases. Average run lengths are used to evaluate the performances of each of the control charts. It is worth mentioning that the proposed HEWMA control chart detects smaller shifts substantially quicker than the classical CUSUM, classical EWMA and mixed EWMA–CUSUM control charts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Control charts applied to simulated sow herd datasets

This study aimed to design an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart for the quality review of nuchal translucency (NT) and to assess its performance compared with the methods currently in use: retrospective distribution-based methods and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. The EWMA model was designed for NT quality review using simulation. The NT measurements obtained during routine first-trimester screening in our centre over a two-and-a-half-year period were retrieved from the database. The NT distribution parameters, EWMA and CUSUM chart were established, and the methods were compared. On the basis of the results from the simulation, the optimal EWMA settings were established. A set of 9338 NT measurements obtained from nine sonographers was used to construct the EWMA and CUSUM charts and to calculate the distribution parameters. Distribution-based methods were unable to reveal the temporal periods of poor performance. The EWMA model agreed closely with the CUSUM but had the advantage promptly indicating when the process returned to an in-control state, thus extending its use to long-term prospective and retrospective quality assessments. The EWMA provides a universal, easy and efficient tool for NT quality review when the prompt and effective detection of suboptimal performance is desired.

Since exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts combine information from the current and past samples, they are relatively more effective in detecting small process shifts than Shewhart control charts. A prevailing problem in control charts is the property of not responding quickly to process shifts, that is, showing statistical control of the process while a shift has occurred in the process parameter(s). This property of control charts, which is referred to as “inertia”, is an important issue in control charting and has been a major concern to engineers and statisticians. This study surveys the inertial properties of EWMA control charts in detail. First, the distribution of EWMA chart statistic and signal resistance probability (SRP) are studied for many different cases when there are undetected transient shifts. All measures are calculated and evaluated via a Markov chain approach. Then, an optimal scheme is proposed to minimize the out-of-control average run length (ARL) for a specified shift, subject to SRP constraints. The results reveal that the inertia can be sometimes a serious problem in EWMA control schemes that should not be overlooked. It is shown that an appropriate scheme based on both ARL and SRP measures could be useful for processes that may have sustained and/or transient out-of-control states.

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts are used to detect smaller shifts in process parameters. The usual EWMA and CUSUM charts depend on the normality assumption for a better detection ability. This study proposes an efficient EWMA control chart based on the spirit of Tukey control chart, especially designed for skewed distributions. The performance of the proposed and the competing charts is measured using different length properties such as average run length (ARL), standard deviation of run length (SDRL), and median run length (MDRL). We have observed that the proposed chart is quite efficient at detecting process shifts of smaller magnitude, especially for skewed distributions. For practical considerations, the proposed chart is implemented at aerospace manufacturing data on industrial production index.

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart is very effective in detecting small shifts in process mean or variance, but so far has not been well presented in the field of analytical chemistry. The main difference from the Shewhart chart is that the EWMA chart combines current data with historical observations by essentially taking a weighted average with weighting factor w of the most current sample observations and historical observations. We show that the EWMA chart with 0.05 < w < 0.20 is more effective in detecting small shifts in mean and variance than the Shewhart chart. In addition, the EWMA chart can also be used to forecast the observation in the next period, which can help analysts take preventive actions before process departures to the out-of-control state. Another advantage of using the EWMA chart is its good performance for observations that are not normally distributed or are autocorrelated.

The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (extended EWMA) control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift. The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the average run length (ARL). Due to the deriving explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for trend autoregressive or trend AR(p) model has not been reported previously. The aim of this study is to derive the explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for the trend AR(p) model as well as the trend AR(1) and trend AR(2) models with exponential white noise. The analytical solution accuracy was obtained with the extended EWMA control chart and was compared to the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. The results show that the ARL obtained by the explicit formula and the NIE method is hardly different, but the explicit formula can help decrease the computational (CPU) time. Furthermore, this is also expanded to comparative performance with the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart. The performance of the extended EWMA control chart is better than the EWMA control chart for all situations, both the trend AR(1) and trend AR(2) models. Finally, the analytical solution of ARL is applied to real-world data in the health field, such as COVID-19 data in the United Kingdom and Sweden, to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

New extended exponentially weighted moving average control chart for monitoring process mean

Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts yield insights into data in a way more comprehensible to the practitioners and researchers because of its capability in discovering small to moderate process mean shifts. EWMA control chart is incorporated with conforming run length (CRL) chart, named synthetic EWMA chart, to enhance the performance of the chart in detecting the out-of-control signal. Synthetic EWMA chart based on ranked set sampling (RSS) for monitoring process mean has been proposed as it advanced the detection of chart over a series of mean shifts. With the situation that normality assumption is scarcely attain in practice, we proposed synthetic EWMA median chart based on RSS. Rather than select average run length (ARL) as sole performance evaluating tool, the median and percentiles of run-length distribution are used to examine the performance of the proposed chart as it provides more information on the entire run-length distribution. Near-optimal parameters of the proposed chart will be acquired by setting the incontrol ARL at a designated value. The run length performances of the proposed chart are then compared with the existing charts such as EWMA median chart based on RSS.