First-order velocity memory effect from compact binary coalescing sources

We assess the effects of super-massive black hole (SMBH) environments on the gravitational-wave (GW) signal from binary SMBHs. To date, searches with pulsar timing arrays for GWs from binary SMBHs, in the frequency band $\sim1-100$\,nHz, include the assumptions that all binaries are circular and evolve only through GW emission. However, dynamical studies have shown that the only way that binary SMBH orbits can decay to separations where GW emission dominates the evolution is through interactions with their environments. We augment an existing galaxy and SMBH formation and evolution model with calculations of binary SMBH evolution in stellar environments, accounting for non-zero binary eccentricities. We find that coupling between binaries and their environments causes the expected GW spectral energy distribution to be reduced with respect to the standard assumption of circular, GW-driven binaries, for frequencies up to $\sim20$\,nHz. Larger eccentricities at binary formation further reduce the signal in this regime. We also find that GW bursts from individual eccentric binary SMBHs are unlikely to be detectable with current pulsar timing arrays. The uncertainties in these predictions are large, owing to observational uncertainty in SMBH-galaxy scaling relations and the galaxy stellar mass function, uncertainty in the nature of binary-environment coupling, and uncertainty in the numbers of the most massive binary SMBHs. We conclude, however, that low-frequency GWs from binary SMBHs may be more difficult to detect with pulsar timing arrays than currently thought.

In this Letter, we carry out the first systematic investigation of the expected gravitational wave (GW) background generated by supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries in the nHz frequency band accessible to pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). We take from the literature several estimates of the redshift-dependent galaxy mass function and of the fraction of close galaxy pairs to derive a wide range of galaxy merger rates. We then exploit empirical black hole–host relations to populate merging galaxies with SMBHs. The result of our procedure is a collection of a large number of phenomenological SMBH binary merger rates consistent with current observational constraints on the galaxy assembly at z < 1.5. For each merger rate we compute the associated GW signal, eventually producing a large set of estimates of the nHz GW background that we use to infer confidence intervals of its expected amplitude. When considering the most recent SMBH–host relations, accounting for overmassive black holes in brightest cluster galaxies, we find that the nominal 1σ interval of the expected GW signal is only a factor of 3–10 below current PTA limits, implying a non-negligible chance of detection in the next few years.

When the universe was roughly one billion years old, supermassive black holes (103-106 solar masses) already existed. The occurrence of supermassive black holes on such short time scales are poorly understood in terms of their physical or evolutionary processes. Our current understanding is limited by the lack of observational data due the limits of electromagnetic radiation. Gravitational waves as predicted by the theory of general relativity have provided us with the means to probe deeper into the history of the universe. During the ESA Alpach Summer School of 2015, a group of science and engineering students devised GLINT (Gravitational-wave Laser INterferometry Triangle), a space mission concept capable of measuring gravitational waves emitted by black holes that have formed at the early periods after the big bang. Morespecifically at redshifts of 15 < z < 30(∼ 0.1 − 0.3× 109 years after the big bang) in the frequency range 0.01 − 1 Hz. GLINT design strain sensitivity of 5times 10^{-24},1/sqrt {text {Hz}} will theoretically allow the study of early black holes formations as well as merging events and collapses. The laser interferometry, the technology used for measuring gravitational waves, monitors the separation of test masses in free-fall, where a change of separation indicates the passage of a gravitational wave. The test masses will be shielded from disturbing forces in a constellation of three geocentric orbiting satellites.

Large-area sky surveys show that massive galaxies undergo at least one major merger in a Hubble time. Ongoing pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments are aimed at measuring the gravitational-wave (GW) emission from binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at the centres of galaxy merger remnants. In this paper, using the latest observational estimates for a range of galaxy properties and scaling relations, we predict the amplitude of the GW background generated by the binary SMBH population. We also predict the numbers of individual binary SMBH GW sources. We predict the characteristic strain amplitude of the GW background to lie in the range 5.1 × 10−16 < Ayr < 2.4 × 10−15 at a frequency of (1 yr)−1, with 95 per cent confidence. Higher values within this range, which correspond to the more commonly preferred choice of galaxy merger time-scale, will fall within the expected sensitivity ranges of existing PTA projects in the next few years. In contrast, we find that a PTA consisting of at least 100 pulsars observed with next-generation radio telescopes will be required to detect continuous-wave GWs from binary SMBHs. We further suggest that GW memory bursts from coalescing SMBH pairs are not viable sources for PTAs. Both the GW background and individual GW source counts are dominated by binaries formed in mergers between early-type galaxies of masses ≳5 × 1010 M⊙ at redshifts ≲1.5. Uncertainties in the galaxy merger time-scale and the SMBH mass–galaxy bulge mass relation dominate the uncertainty in our predictions.

We present KETJU, a new extension of the widely used smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulation code GADGET-3. The key feature of the code is the inclusion of algorithmically regularized regions around every supermassive black hole (SMBH). This allows for simultaneously following global galactic-scale dynamical and astrophysical processes, while solving the dynamics of SMBHs, SMBH binaries, and surrounding stellar systems at subparsec scales. The KETJU code includes post-Newtonian terms in the equations of motions of the SMBHs, which enables a new SMBH merger criterion based on the gravitational wave coalescence timescale, pushing the merger separation of SMBHs down to ∼0.005 pc. We test the performance of our code by comparison to NBODY7 and rVINE. We set up dynamically stable multicomponent merger progenitor galaxies to study the SMBH binary evolution during galaxy mergers. In our simulation sample the SMBH binaries do not suffer from the final-parsec problem, which we attribute to the nonspherical shape of the merger remnants. For bulge-only models, the hardening rate decreases with increasing resolution, whereas for models that in addition include massive dark matter halos, the SMBH binary hardening rate becomes practically independent of the mass resolution of the stellar bulge. The SMBHs coalesce on average 200 Myr after the formation of the SMBH binary. However, small differences in the initial SMBH binary eccentricities can result in large differences in the SMBH coalescence times. Finally, we discuss the future prospects of KETJU, which allows for a straightforward inclusion of gas physics in the simulations.

The LISA DFACS: Model Predictive Control design for the test mass release phase

In this study of the ‘Resolving supermAssive Black hole Binaries In galacTic hydrodynamical Simulations’ (RABBITS) series, we focus on the hardening and coalescing process of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries in galaxy mergers. For simulations including different galaxy formation processes (i.e. gas cooling, star formation, SMBH accretion, stellar, and AGN feedback), we systematically control the effect of stochastic eccentricity by fixing it to similar values during the SMBH hardening phase. We find a strong correlation between the SMBH merger time-scales and the presence of nuclear star formation. Throughout the galaxy merging process, gas condenses at the centre due to cooling and tidal torques, leading to nuclear star formation. These recently formed stars, which inherit low angular momenta from the gas, contribute to the loss cone and assist in the SMBH hardening via three-body interactions. Compared to non-radiative hydrodynamical runs, the SMBH merger time-scales measured from the runs including cooling, stellar, and SMBH physical processes tend to be shortened by a factor of ∼1.7. After fixing the eccentricity to the range of e ∼ 0.6–0.8 during the hardening phase, the simulations with AGN feedback reveal merger time-scales of ∼100–500 Myr for disc mergers and ∼1–2 Gyr for elliptical mergers. With a semi-analytical approach, we find that the torque interaction between the binary and its circumbinary disc has minimal impact on the shrinking of the binary orbit in our retrograde galaxy merger. Our results are useful in improving the modelling of SMBH merger time-scales and gravitational-wave event rates.

Supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) in galactic centers may radiate gravitational waves (GW) in the nano-Hertz frequency band, which are expected to be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) in the near future. GW signals from individual SMBBHs at cosmic distances, if detected by PTAs, are potentially powerful standard sirens that can be used to independently measure distances and thus put constraints on cosmological parameters. In this paper, we investigate the constraint that may be obtained on the equation of state (w) of dark energy by using those SMBBHs, expected to be detected by the PTAs in the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) era. By considering both the currently available SMBBH candidates and mock SMBBHs in the universe resulting from a simple galaxy major merger model, we find that ∼200–3000 SMBBHs with chirp mass &gt;109 M ⊙ are expected to be detected with a signal-to-noise ratio &gt;10 by SKA–PTA with conservative and optimistic settings and they can be used to put a constraint on w to an uncertainty of Δw ∼ 0.02–0.1. If further information on the mass and mass ratio of those SMBBHs can be provided by electromagnetic observations (e.g., chirp mass uncertainty ≲50%), the constraint may be further improved to a ≲0.01 level, as many more SMBBHs will be detected by SKA–PTA with relatively better distance measurements and can be used as the standard sirens.

The gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive binary black holes (BBHs) have long been sought by pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments, in the forms of both a stochastic GW background (GWB) and individual sources. Evidence for a GWB was reported recently by several PTAs with origins to be determined. Here we use a BBH population synthesis model to investigate the detection probability of individual BBHs by the Chinese PTA (CPTA) and the constraint on the GWB origin that may be obtained by PTA observations of both GWB and individual BBHs. If the detected GWB signal is entirely due to BBHs, a significantly positive redshift evolution (∝ (1 + z)2.07) of the mass scaling relation between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies is required. In this case, we find that the detection probability of individual BBHs is ∼85% or 64% if using a period of 3.4 yr of CPTA observation data, with an expectation of ∼1.9 or 1.0 BBHs detectable with a signal-to-noise ratio ≥3 or 5, and it is expected to increase to >95% if the observation period is extended to 5 yr or longer. Even if the contribution from BBHs to the GWB power signal is as small as ∼10%, a positive detection of individual BBHs can still be expected within an observation period of ∼10 yr. A nondetection of individual BBHs within several years from now jointly with the detected GWB signal can put a strong constraint on the upper limit of the BBH contribution to the GWB signal and help identify/falsify a cosmological origin.

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15 yr observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach subparsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations.

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays. We have searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves 11 yr data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources. At = 8 nHz, we placed a sky-averaged upper limit of h 0 &lt; 7.3(3) × 10−15. We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using “dropout” parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals. From these upper limits, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs with = 8 nHz within 120 Mpc for , and within 5.5 Gpc for at our most sensitive sky location. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with emitting GWs with = 2.8–317.8 nHz in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we compared our strain upper limits to simulated populations of SMBHBs, based on galaxies in the Two Micron All-Sky Survey and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project, and found that only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local universe contained a detectable source.

While supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries are not the only viable source for the low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) signal evidenced by the most recent pulsar timing array (PTA) data sets, they are expected to be the most likely. Thus, connecting the measured PTA GWB spectrum and the underlying physics governing the demographics and dynamics of SMBH binaries is extremely important. Previously, Gaussian processes (GPs) and dense neural networks have been used to make such a connection by being built as conditional emulators; their input is some selected evolution or environmental SMBH binary parameters and their output is the emulated mean and standard deviation of the GWB strain ensemble distribution over many Universes. In this paper, we use a normalizing flow (NF) emulator that is trained on the entirety of the GWB strain ensemble distribution, rather than only mean and standard deviation. As a result, we can predict strain distributions that mirror underlying simulations very closely while also capturing frequency covariances in the strain distributions as well as statistical complexities such as tails, non-Gaussianities, and multimodalities that are otherwise not learnable by existing techniques. In particular, we feature various comparisons between the NF-based emulator and the GP approach used extensively in past efforts. Our analyses conclude that the NF-based emulator not only outperforms GPs in the ease and computational cost of training but also outperforms in the fidelity of the emulated GWB strain ensemble distributions.

The merger of two galaxies, each hosting a supermassive black hole (SMBH) of mass 106 M ⊙ or more, could yield a bound SMBH binary. For the early-type galaxy NGC 4472, we study how astrometry with a next-generation Very Large Array could be used to monitor the reflex motion of the primary SMBH of mass M pri, as it is tugged on by the secondary SMBH of mass . Casting the orbit of the putative SMBH binary in terms of its period P, semimajor axis a bin, and mass ratio , we find the following: (1) Orbits with fiducial periods of P = 4 yr and 40 yr could be spatially resolved and monitored. (2) For a 95% accuracy of 2 μas per monitoring epoch, subparsec values of a bin could be accessed over a range of mass ratios notionally encompassing major and minor galaxy mergers. (3) If no reflex motion is detected for M pri after 1 (10) yr of monitoring, an SMBH binary with period P = 4 (40) yr and mass ratio q > 0.01 (0.003) could be excluded. This would suggest no present-day evidence for a past major merger like that recently simulated, where scouring by a q ∼ 1 SMBH binary formed a stellar core with kinematic traits like those of NGC 4472. (4) Astrometric monitoring could independently check the upper limits on q from searches for continuous gravitational waves from NGC 4472.

The nonlinear memory effect is a fascinating prediction of general relativity (GR), in which oscillatory gravitational-wave (GW) signals are generically accompanied by a monotonically-increasing strain which persists in the detector long after the signal has passed. This effect is directly accessible to GW observatories, and presents a unique opportunity to test GR in the dynamical and nonlinear regime. In this article we calculate, for the first time, the nonlinear memory signal associated with GW bursts from cusps and kinks on cosmic string loops, which are an important target for current and future GW observatories. We obtain analytical waveforms for the GW memory from cusps and kinks, and use these to calculate the ‘memory of the memory’ and other higher-order memory effects. These are among the first memory observables computed for a cosmological source of GWs, with previous literature having focused almost entirely on astrophysical sources. Surprisingly, we find that the cusp GW signal diverges for sufficiently large loops, and argue that the most plausible explanation for this divergence is a breakdown in the weak-field treatment of GW emission from the cusp. This shows that previously-neglected strong gravity effects must play an important rôle near cusps, although the exact mechanism by which they cure the divergence is not currently understood. We show that one possible resolution is for these cusps to collapse to form primordial black holes (PBHs); the kink memory signal does not diverge, in agreement with the fact that kinks are not predicted to form PBHs. Finally, we investigate the prospects for detecting memory from cusps and kinks with current and future GW observatories, considering both individual memory bursts and the contribution of many such bursts to the stochastic GW background. We find that in the scenario where the cusp memory divergence is cured by PBH formation, the memory signal is strongly suppressed and is not likely to be detected. However, alternative resolutions of the cusp divergence may in principle lead to much more favourable observational prospects.

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are expected by the hierarchical galaxy formation model in ΛCDM cosmology. There is some evidence in the literature for SMBHBs in active galactic nuclei, but there are few observational constraints on the evolution of SMBHBs in inactive galaxies and gas-poor mergers. On the theoretical front, it is unclear how long is needed for a SMBHB in a typical galaxy to coalesce. In this paper we investigate the tidal interaction between stars and binary black holes (BHs) and calculate the tidal disruption rates of stellar objects by the BH components of the binary. We derive the interaction cross sections between SMBHBs and stars from intensive numerical scattering experiments with particle number ~107 and calculate the tidal disruption rates by both single and binary BHs for a sample of realistic galaxy models, taking into account the general relativistic effects and the loss-cone refilling because of two-body interaction. We estimate the frequency of tidal flares for different types of galaxies using the BH mass function in the literature. We find that because of the three-body slingshot effect, the tidal disruption rate in the SMBHB system is more than 1 order of magnitude smaller than that in a single supermassive black hole (SMBH) system. The difference is more significant in less massive galaxies and does not depend on detailed stellar dynamical processes. Our calculations suggest that comparisons of the calculated tidal disruption rates for both single and binary BHs and the surveys of X-ray or UV flares at galactic centers could tell us whether most SMBHs in nearby galaxies are single and whether the SMBHBs formed in gas-poor galaxy mergers coalesce rapidly.