Forecasting Dengue Hotspots Associated With Variation in Meteorological Parameters Using Regression and Time Series Models.

In this paper, the accuracy of soft computing technique in solar radiation prediction based on series of measured meteorological data (monthly mean sunshine duration, monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature) taking from Iseyin meteorological station in Nigeria was examined. The process, which simulates the solar radiation with support vector regression (SVR), was constructed. The inputs were monthly mean maximum temperature (Tmax), monthly mean minimum temperature (Tmin) and monthly mean sunshine duration ( $$ \bar{n} $$ ). Polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the SVR kernel function to estimate solar radiation. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR with polynomial basis function compared to RBF. The SVR coefficient of determination R 2 with the polynomial function was 0.7395 and with the radial basis function, the R 2 was 0.5877.

Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike's Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations.

Agriculture is the mainstay of Ethiopian economy. Developing country like Ethiopia suffers from climate change, due to their limited economic capability to build irrigation projects to combat the trouble. This study generates climate change in rift valley basins of Ethiopia for three time periods (2020s, 2055s and 2090s) by using two emission scenarios: SRA1B and SRB1 for faster technological and environmental extreme respectively. First, outputs of 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (SRA1B and SRB1) are statistically downscaled by using LARS-WG software. Probability assessment of bounded range with known distributions is used to deal with the uncertainties of GCMs’ outputs. These GCMs outputs are weighted by considering the ability of each model to simulate historical records. The study result indicates that LARS-WG 5.5 version model is more uncertain to simulate future mean rainfall than generating maximum and minimum mean temperatures. GCMs weight difference for mean rainfall is 0.83 whereas weight difference for minimum and maximum mean temperatures is 0.09 among GCMs models. The study results indicate minimum and maximum temperatures absolute increase in the range of 0.34˚C to 0.58˚C, 0.94˚C to 1.8˚C and 1.42˚C to 3.2˚C and 0.32˚C to 0.56˚C, 0.91˚C to 1.8˚C and 1.34˚C to 3.04˚C respectively in the near-term (2020s), mid-term (2055s) and long-term (2090s) under both emission scenarios. The expected rainfall change percentage during these three time periods considering this GCMs weight difference into account ranges from -2.3% to 7%, 0.375% to 15.83% and 2.625% to 31.1% in the same three time periods. In conclusion, the study results indicate that in coming three time periods, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall increase is expected in rift valley of basins of Ethiopia.

In the rapidly evolving real estate market, the application of machine learning (ML) is crucial for understanding and predicting price trends. This study evaluates and compares seven ML models, including multiple linear regression, random forest regression, support vector regression (SVR), decision tree regression, and XGBoost, to determine the most effective predictor of real estate prices in Astana, Kazakhstan. The study focuses on the Yesil district, a key area in the city, utilizing a dataset of over 9,000 records extracted from a broader collection of more than 30,000 real estate transactions across Kazakhstan. Through rigorous experimentation, model performance was assessed using statistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R-squared). The results indicate that the Random Forest Regressor and XGBRegressor models outperformed others, achieving the highest R-squared values (99.55% and 99.18%, respectively) and the lowest MAE and RMSE values. These findings highlight their robustness in predicting housing prices with high accuracy. The primary objective of this study was to develop a precise ML model capable of accurately forecasting real estate prices in Astana based on key market attributes. The superior predictive performance of the Random Forest and XGBRegressor models justifies their selection for deployment in real-world applications. Their high predictive accuracy suggests their potential utility for real estate professionals, policymakers, and investors seeking data-driven insights into market dynamics. This research expands knowledge on the applications of ML in the real estate sector, reinforcing the importance of evidence-based decision-making within the industry.

The growth of every nation's economy depends heavily on the stock market. Because of their strong predictive powers, "K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNNR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), and Support Vector Regression (SVR)" is commonly used. From the previous study, it shows that the chosen state-of-the-art of previous studies is by Shah et al. (2021) using Bi-LSTM. But the state-of-the-art model shows a high Mean Squared Error (MSE) value that is 5% for predict Tesla Stock. Therefore, we propose the SVR, KNNR, DTR, and RFR model hope error value can be reduced. However, those models have difficulties finding suitable parameters for prediction. Due to that, we proposed the best parameters that were commonly used in studies which is SVR with RBF kernel, C = [1; 10; 100], gamma = [0, 1; 0, 2], epsilon = 0,1, KNNR with K = [1, 3, 5, 7, 9], and DTR with a criterion = [‘squared_error’;’friedman_mse’], RFR with 0 < n_estimators < 100 is picked to enhance the predictive capabilities of each proposed model. To prove this, a comparison is made with each proposed model, and choose the best proposed model then compared to the state-of-the-art of the previous study, which is Bi-LSTM. The dataset used was the Tesla Stock historical data from yahoo finance. The result showed RFR with n_estimators = 87 is superior to its comparison with results of 0.005452 RMSE, 0.000029 MSE, and 0.999296 R2 and compared to Bi-LSTM have about 0.11773 RMSE, 0.01386 MSE, and 0.791263 R2. Based on this study, it can be concluded that RFR with n_estimators = 87 has superior predictive capabilities performance compared with other models and the state-of-the-art of previous studies. Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2022-03-04-01 Full Text: PDF

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

Accurate prediction of crop yield before harvest is critical to food security and importation. The calculated ten explanatory factors and autumn crop yield data were used as data sources in this research. Firstly, a Redundancy Analysis (RDA) was employed to carry out explanatory factors and feature selection. The simple effects of RDA were used to evaluate the interpretation rates of the explanatory factors. The conditional effects of RDA were adopted to select the features of the explanatory factors. Then, the autumn crop yield was divided into the training set and testing set with an 80/20 ratio, using Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and deep neural network (DNN) for the model, respectively. Finally, the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model comprehensively. The results showed that the interpretation rates of the explanatory factors ranged from 54.3% to 85.0% (p = 0.002), which could reflect the autumn crop yields well. When a small number of sample training data (e.g., 80 samples) was used, the DNN model performed better than both SVR and RF models.

Personal identification of an individual has always been a major concern in forensic science. Reconstruction of the facial profile is considered as one of the final stages in the process of identification. Nevertheless, recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have demonstrated remarkable potential in predictive modelling and forensic applications. The current study uses customised machine learning models to predict facial dimensions based on dental and jaw parameters. A sample of 422 participants (201 males and 221 females) from a North Indian population was collected and analysed. Dental casts, anthropometric facial measurements and photographs of the participants were collected with informed consent. ML models such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), and Linear Regression (LR) were trained using dental and jaw measurements as input features for the models. The results show that the ML models predicted the facial dimensions with an accuracy of 90–94% and a very low prediction error of 0.1–0.9 across all facial measurements. Among the models, SVR and LR models perform well, followed by RFR, whereas DFR yielded comparatively lower accuracy. The findings demonstrate that machine learning models (SVR, RFR, DTR, and LR) can be used as novel approach to predict facial dimensions from jaw and teeth parameters. These techniques can be combined with other facial reconstruction techniques to produce more precise and accurate outcomes. The reliability and accuracy in predicting the facial dimensions indicate that the results can be applied in the practical and real situations such as personal identification, forensic investigations, disaster victim identification cases, and archaeological remains where only jaw and teeth are available for examination. Integrating ML-based predictions with traditional facial reconstruction techniques could enhance the accuracy and reliability of forensic identification methodologies.

In modern gas distribution practices, the ability to remotely access operational data and monitor plant conditions in real-time is becoming paramount in assessing operational intricacies. In this study, a robust system that provides real-time access to turbine meter operation data and predicts the time until failure, enhancing maintenance schedules and reducing unexpected downtimes is presented. To achieve this, a comprehensive methodology was employed, starting with the design and development of a real-time data collection system using a Raspberry Pi 4 and various communication components to monitor gas flow parameters being emitted from a simulation software environment. Data collected from the system was then used to train predictive models. Regression models, including Random Forest Regressor, Gradient Boosting Regressor, and Support Vector Regressor, were compared with time-series models like SARIMA. The models were evaluated based on metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and R2. Additionally, anomaly detection models like Isolation Forest were implemented to identify deviations in gas flow data. The results demonstrated that the Random Forest Regressor provided the best result when compared with other regression models used. However, the time-series model, SARIMA slightly outperformed regression techniques, showing a 2.14% reduction in RMSE and a 2.02% increase in R2 at the cost of higher computational demands. The real-time monitoring device achieved high reliability with a latency of 5 seconds and a system reliability of over 95%. These findings underscore the effectiveness of both regression and time-series models in predicting the time until failure of turbine meters. The study provides a framework for predictive maintenance in the gas industry that can minimize operational disruptions and optimize general maintenance practices.

This work evaluates machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for Photovoltaic (PV) power output prediction based on two real-world datasets. Eight models – Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), Decision Tree (DT), one Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1DCNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) – were evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), R-squared (R²), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). For Dataset1 (region of Cacak) 1DCNN achieved the optimal performance, with the reduced errors and the largest R² values at three spatial locations, and it was closely followed by RFR and GBR. Likewise, in Dataset2 (region of Kraljevo), 1DCNN, ANN, and RFR give the best results. Conventional models, such as LR and DT, performed poorly in both data tribes. The results highlight the ability of state-of-the-art ensemble and DL models in learning nonlinear patterns in solar energy data and thus, the importance of choosing the right prediction tools to provide accurate and reliable PV power forecasts.  

Impacts of the Great Lakes on Regional Climate Conditions

In recent times, an infectious disease namely COVID-19 has affected a large number of individuals. Forecasting models have been helpful in predicting the possible number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovery counts in the future. In this paper, the prediction of COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases and deaths for India is analyzed based on various statistical models such as (a) time series, (b) machine learning, and (c) ensemble learning. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing in time series; support vector regression (SVR) and linear regression (LR) in machine learning (ML) and random forest regression in ensemble learning (EL) have been implemented for predictions. The accuracies of the trained models are evaluated using metrics such as R-squared value, root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The proposed forecasting models can be used to monitor the rise in COVID-19 cases which can thereby be helpful for government officials to make required changes to their system.KeywordsCOVID-19 pandemic predictionTime-series forecastingEnsemble learningMachine learningSupport vector regression

This chapter aims to predict the foreign currency exchange rate on the basis of the US dollar over twenty-two different currencies. This chapter proposes two machine learning algorithms like Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR) and one deep learning algorithm named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for the technical analysis of currency exchange rate prediction. The authors use Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean squared error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure the performance of the algorithms. Empirical findings specify that the overall performance of the algorithms is outstanding, but the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) shows less error than others. This study is useful for the stakeholders to set a wide range of approaches for the foreign exchange market.KeywordsCurrency exchange rate predictionMachine learningDeep learningTime series analysis

Human intervention cannot halt natural disasters like earthquakes, but machine learning application expertise can be utilized to detect patterns in data and increase understanding and predictive power. Recent development of machine learning models has increasingly developed interest in forecasting and predicting the magnitude of earthquakes. In this work, Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptron Regressor(MLPR), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models were employed to predict the magnitude of greater than 6 mb earthquakes that occurred in the year 2015 in the central Himalaya. We noticed RFR method had been able to predict the magnitude of the Gorkha earthquake (6.9mb), and the Kodariearthquake (6.7 mb) in comparison with the other two models. We also checked the performance of these models by three parameters Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and noticed the better performance of RFR model. The findings illustrate that RFR is achieving better performance than the other two algorithms, as the predicted magnitudes are close to the actual magnitudes.

Due to the rapid adoption of renewable energy sources and the increasing complexity of residential electricity consumption, there is a growing need for intelligent, scalable, and context-aware energy management systems in smart homes. This paper presents an artificial intelligence (AI)-based model that integrates high-resolution household power forecasting with dynamic demand response (DR) simulations to optimize energy consumption, enhance grid stability, and support sustainable energy transitions. Using the publicly available UCI Smart Home Energy dataset, a seven-step framework was implemented, including data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis (EDA), feature engineering, and the development of various predictive models—linear regression (LR), random forest regressor (RFR), support vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. Each model was evaluated under seven DR strategies to capture temporal dependencies and nonlinear load behaviors: Peak Clipping, Valley Filling, Load Shifting, Load Leveling, Time-of-Use (ToU) Optimization, Price-Based Control, and Behavioral DR. Model performance was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination ( R ²). Results revealed that the LSTM model achieved the highest accuracy, with the lowest MAE (18.95 Wh), lowest RMSE (24.83 Wh), and highest R ² (0.94) under the Price-Based DR strategy. Random forest emerged as the most effective traditional model, yielding an MAE of 25.13 Wh and R ² of 0.89, particularly for Behavioral and ToU-based DR strategies. The SVR and k-NN models provided moderate accuracy, while LR performed poorly, underscoring its limitation in modeling nonlinear and dynamic energy patterns. DR simulations indicated that Price-Based, Behavioral, and ToU Optimization strategies achieved the best alignment between household loads and grid requirements while maintaining user flexibility. Visualization tools such as heatmaps, grouped bar plots, and R ² comparisons further confirmed the superior temporal modeling capability of deep learning (DL) methods. Overall, the proposed framework offers a scalable and interpretable AI-driven platform that integrates load forecasting with DR evaluation, demonstrating that DL—particularly LSTM—can substantially enhance forecasting accuracy, enable smarter DR programs, and promote sustainable energy management in smart homes.