Forecasting Household Demand-Side Flexibility Using XGBoost for Smart Energy Management

The smart buildings’ load forecasting is necessary for efficient energy management, and it is easily possible because of the data availability based on widespread use of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and automation systems. The information of buildings’ occupancy is directly associated with energy consumption. Therefore, we present a hybrid model consisting of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XgBoost), Random Forest (RF) and Linear Regression (LR) for commercial and academic buildings’ load forecasting. The correlation between occupants’ count and total load of the building is calculated using Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The comparative analysis of the proposed approach with LSTM, XgBoost, RF and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) is also performed. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) are used as performance indicators for evaluating performance. Findings indicate that the proposed hybrid approach outperforms other models. The RMSE and MAE of 2.99 and 2.18, respectively, are recorded by the proposed model for commercial building dataset while for academic building the RMSE and MAE are 4.48 and 2.85, respectively. Occupancy and load consumption have a positive correlation as evident from PCC analysis. Therefore, we have scheduled the forecasted load based on occupancy patterns for two different cases. Cost is reduced by 17.42% and 33.40% in case 1 and case 2, respectively. Moreover, the performance of the proposed hybrid approach is compared with different techniques presented in literature for buildings load forecasting.

The mechanical characteristics of rocks, specifically uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and elastic modulus (E), serve as crucial factors in ensuring the integrity and stability of relevant projects in mining and civil engineering. This study proposes a novel hybrid PSO (particle swarm optimization) with tree-based models, such as gradient boosting regressor (GBR), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) for predicting UCS and E of rock samples from Block IX of the Thar Coalfield in Pakistan. A total of 122 datasets were divided into training and testing sets, with an 80:20 ratio, respectively, to develop the predictive models. Key performance metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE), were employed to assess the model’s predictive performance. The results indicate that the PSO-XGBoost model demonstrated the highest accuracy in predicting UCS and E, outperforming the other models, which exhibited inferior predictive performance. Furthermore, this study utilized the SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) machine learning method to enhance our understanding of how each input feature variable influences the output values of UCS and E. In conclusion, the proposed framework offers significant advantages in evaluating the strength and deformation of rocks at Thar Coalfield, with promising applications in the field of mining and rock engineering.

The impact of climate change has led to significant changes in hydroclimatic patterns and continuous stress on water resources through frequent wet and dry spells. Hence, understanding and effectively addressing the escalating impact of climate change on hydroclimatic patterns, especially in the context of meteorological drought, necessitates precise modeling of these phenomena. This study focuses on assessing the accuracy of drought modeling using the well-established Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Aegean region of Türkiye. The study utilizes monthly precipitation data from six stations in Cesme, Kusadasi, Manisa, Seferihisar, Selcuk and Izmir at Kucuk Menderes Basin covering the period from 1973 to 2020. The dataset is divided into three sets, training (60%), validation (20%), and testing (20%) sets. The study aims to determine the SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 using a multi-station prediction technique. Three boosting regression models (BRMs), namely Extreme Gradient Boosting (XgBoost), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Gradient Boosting (GradBoost), were employed and optimized with the help of the Weighted Mean of Vectors (INFO) technique. Model performances were then evaluated with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and the Willmott Index (WI). Results demonstrated a distinct superiority of the XgBoost model over AdaBoost and GradBoost in terms of accuracy. During the test phase, the XgBoost model achieved RMSEs of 0.496, 0.429 and 0.389 for SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12, respectively. The WIs were 0.899, 0.901 and 0.825 for SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12, respectively. These are considerably lower than the corresponding values obtained by the other models. Yet, the comparative statistical analysis further underscores the effectiveness of XgBoost in modeling extended periods of drought in the Aegean region of Türkiye.

This research explores the optimization of mechanical properties and predictive modeling of polylactic acid (PLA) reinforced with boron nitride nanoplatelets (BNNPs) using data-driven machine learning (ML) models. PLA-BNNP composites were fabricated through injection molding, with a focus on how key processing parameters influence their mechanical performance. A Taguchi L27 orthogonal array was applied to assess the effects of BNNP composition (0.02 wt.% and 0.04 wt.%), injection temperature (135–155 °C), injection speed (50–70 mm/s), and pressure (30–50 bar) on properties such as tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and hardness. The results indicated that a 0.04 wt.% BNNP loading improved tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and hardness by 18.6%, 32.7%, and 20.5%, respectively, compared to pure PLA. Taguchi analysis highlighted that higher BNNP concentrations, along with optimal injection temperatures, improved all mechanical properties, although excessive temperatures compromised tensile strength and modulus, while enhancing hardness. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that injection temperature was the dominant factor for tensile strength (68.88%) and Young’s modulus (86.39%), while BNNP composition played a more significant role in influencing hardness (78.83%). Predictive models were built using machine learning (ML) models such as Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Among the ML models, XGBoost demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, achieving R2 values above 98% for tensile strength, 92–93% for Young’s modulus, and 96% for hardness, with low error metrics i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). These findings underscore the potential of using BNNP reinforcement and machine learning-driven property prediction to enhance PLA nanocomposites’ mechanical performance, making them viable for applications in lightweight packaging, biomedical implants, consumer electronics, and automotive components, offering sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based plastics.

Exploring the relationship between 2D/3D landscape pattern and land surface temperature based on explainable eXtreme Gradient Boosting tree: A case study of Shanghai, China

PurposeEuropean Parliament adopted a new directive on gender balance in corporate boards when by 2026, companies must employ 40% of the underrepresented sex into non-executive directors or 33% among all directors. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of gender diversity (GD) on board of directors and the shareholders’ structure and their impact on the likelihood of company bankruptcy during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe data sample consists of 1,351 companies for 2019 and 2020, of which 173 were large, 351 medium-sized companies and 827 small companies. Three bankruptcy indicators were tested for each company size, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and logistic regression models were developed. These models were then cross-validated by a 10-fold approach.FindingsXGBoost models achieved area under curve (AUC) over 98%, which is 25% higher than AUC achieved by logistic regression. Prediction models with GD features performed slightly better than those without them. Furthermore, this study indicates the existence of critical mass between 30% and 50%, which decreases the probability of bankruptcy for small and medium companies. Furthermore, the representation of women in ownership structures above 50% decreases bankruptcy likelihood.Originality/valueThis is a pioneering study to explore GD topics by application of ensembled machine learning methods. Moreover, the study does analyze not only the GD of boards but also shareholders. A highly innovative approach is GD analysis based on company size performed in one study considering the COVID-19 pandemic perspective.

Nickel-Titanium (NiTi) shape memory alloys (SMAs) are smart materials able to recover their original shape under thermal stimulus. Near-net-shape NiTi SMA foils of 2 meters in length and width of 30 mm have been successfully produced by a planar flow casting facility at CSIRO, opening possibilities of wider applications of SMA foils. The study also focuses on establishing a fully automated experimental system for the characterisation of their reversible actuation, significantly improving SMA foils adaptation into real applications. Artificial Intelligence involving Computer Vision and Machine Learning based methods were successfully employed in the development of the automation SMA characterization process. The study finds that an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) Regression model based predictive system experimented with over 175,000 video samples could achieve 99% overall prediction accuracy. Generalisation capability of the proposed system makes a significant contribution towards the efficient optimisation of the material design to produce high quality 30 mm SMA foils.

An optimal control of the combustion process of an engine ensures lower emissions and fuel consumption plus high efficiencies. Combustion parameters such as the peak firing pressure (PFP) and the crank angle (CA) corresponding to 50% of mass fraction burned (MFB50) are essential for a closed-loop control strategy. These parameters are based on the measured in-cylinder pressure that is typically gained by intrusive pressure sensors (PSs). These are costly and their durability is uncertain. To overcome these issues, the potential of using a virtual sensor based on the vibration signals acquired by a knock sensor (KS) for control of the combustion process is investigated. The present work introduces a data-driven approach where a signal-processing technique, designated as discrete wavelet transform (DWT), will be used as the preprocessing step for extracting informative features to perform regression tasks of the selected combustion parameters with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regression models. The presented methodology will be applied to data from two different spark-ignited, single cylinder gas engines. Finally, an analysis is obtained where the important features based on the model’s decisions are identified.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Monitoring the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is crucial in order to improve our understanding of their climate impact. However, there are no long-term profile data sets of important GHGs that can be used to gain a better insight into the processes controlling their variations in the atmosphere. Here, we merge chemical transport model (CTM) output and profile measurements from two solar occultation instruments, the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment &ndash; Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), to construct long-term (1991&ndash;2021), gap-free stratospheric profile data sets (hereafter, TCOM) for two important GHGs. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression model is used to estimate the corrections needed to apply to the CTM profiles. For methane (TCOM-CH4), we use both HALOE and ACE satellite profile measurements (1992&ndash;2018) to train the XGBoost model while profiles from three later years (2019&ndash;2021) are used as an independent evaluation data set. As there are no nitrous oxide (N₂O) profile measurements for earlier years, XGBoost-derived correction terms to construct TCOM-N2O profiles are derived using only ACEFTS profiles for the 2004&ndash;2018 time period, with profiles from 2019&ndash;2021 again being used for the independent evaluation. Overall, both TCOM-CH4 and TCOM-N2O profiles show excellent agreement with the available satellite measurement-based data sets. We find that compared to evaluation profiles, biases in TCOM-CH4 and TCOM-N2O are generally less than 10 % and 50 %, respectively, throughout the stratosphere. Daily zonal mean profile data sets on altitude (15&ndash;60 km) and pressure (300&ndash;0.1 hPa) levels are publicly available via <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7293740" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7293740</a> for TCOM-CH4 (Dhomse, 2022a) and <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7386001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7386001</a> for TCOM-N2O (Dhomse, 2022b).

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is a prevalent syndrome among middle-aged and older adults, significantly impairing quality of life and imposing substantial health and economic burdens on China's aging healthcare system. The development of timely predictive models is crucial for enabling early intervention. This study aimed to integrate multidimensional data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to develop an effective predictive model for assessing the five-year risk of CMM onset, thereby facilitating early intervention and management for individuals at risk in China. We analyzed data from the 2015 to 2020 CHARLS surveys, involving 5,388 middle-aged and older adults initially free of CMM. The dataset was randomly split into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Key predictors were identified from 31 potential variables using LASSO regression with 10-fold cross-validation. Selected predictors underwent correlation analysis and were used to construct both Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Logistic Regression (LR) models. Variable contributions in the XGBoost model were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, while the LR model was visualized via a nomogram. The performance of the superior model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. LASSO regression screened significant variables from the initial 31 candidates. Correlation analysis ultimately identified nine key predictors: systolic blood pressure, BMI, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, age, comorbidities, and pain. The logistic regression model demonstrated superior and more stable predictive performance on the validation set, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.732 (95% CI: 0.703-0.761). Calibration curves indicated reliable predictive accuracy, and decision curve analysis established the clinical net benefit across a range of risk thresholds. This study developed and validated a reliable, clinically applicable logistic regression model, supplemented by a nomogram, for assessing the five-year risk of CMM in Chinese middle-aged and older adults. The model effectively identifies high-risk individuals, supporting targeted early intervention and management strategies to alleviate the health and economic burdens associated with CMM in this population.

Modeling of necking area reduction of carbon steel in hydrogen environment using machine learning approach

This study investigated how shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios affect farmland soil organic carbon (SOC). The effects of historical precipitation, temperature, soil type, soil features, land shape, farming methods, and land use changes on SOC trends from 1982 to 2024 were examined in Karvir area Maharashtra, India. Predictions used machine learning modelers Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Coefficient of determination (R2), mean error (ME), and root mean square error (RMSE) were optimal for XGB at 0.998, 0.000, and 0.225g/kg, respectively. Using remote sensing data processed in Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Geographic Information System (GIS), the model was validated by a certified local soil testing laboratory, achieving an R² of 0.88, an RMSE of 1.9g/kg, and an ME of 1.5g/kg. Temperature and rainfall under high SSPs drastically reduced projected SOC. In the worst case (SSP5-8.5), the mean SOC in 2040 declined from 46.4 to 24.2g/kg in 2100. Since 2018, conservation agricultural technologies like no-till farming, mulching, and composting have boosted SOC while farmland has decreased over 42 years. These findings give a paradigm for climate-adaptive management alternatives that promote SOC sequestration, soil health, and sustainable agriculture.

A data-driven surrogate model for non-electrical offline state-of-charge estimation of LiFePO4 batteries using feature-rich guided ultrasonic waves.

The rapid development of technology, cities, and the introduction of IoT has caused high fluctuations in energy consumption. Therefore, efficient energy management and forecasting energy consumption for buildings are important in decision-making for effective energy-saving and keeping the world a better place. Over the years researchers have tried to propose machine learning approaches to forecast and monitor abnormal electricity consumption, however, there is still a need for more new approaches to forecasting energy consumption correctly and precisely. This paper attempts to address the global issue of efficient electricity management through a data science approach. The paper proposes a quantile learning approach for predicting household electricity consumption. We propose a deep quantile regression model and a gradient boosting model to forecast power consumption. In addition, we propose an approach to detect abnormal patterns in energy consumption data using estimated consumption intervals. We tested our approach on a publicly available univariate time series dataset collected from a house located in Sceaux.

Rating is one of the most frequently used metrics in the television industry to evaluate television programs or channels. This research is an attempt to develop a prediction model of television program ratings using rating data gathered from UseeTV (interned-based television service from Telkom Indonesia). The machine learning methods (Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting) were tried out utilizing a set of rating data from 20 television programs collected from January 2018 to August 2019 (train dataset) and evaluated using September 2019 rating data (test dataset). Research results show that Random Forest gives a better result than Extreme Gradient Boosting based on evaluation metrics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). On the training dataset, prediction using Random Forest produced lower RMSE and MAE scores than Extreme Gradient Boosting in all programs, while on the testing dataset, Random Forest produced lower RMSE and MAE scores in 16 programs compared with Extreme Gradient Boosting. According to MAPE score, Random Forest produced more good quality prediction (4 programs in the training dataset, 16 programs in the testing dataset) than Extreme Gradient Boosting method (1 program in the training dataset, 12 programs in the testing dataset) both in training and testing dataset.