Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms

Support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting tourism demand

Prediction of TVB-N content in eggs based on electronic nose

The Support Vector Regression (SVR) parameters selection problem is considered in this report. The purpose of work is to create an intelligent algorithm for SVR parameters optimization and, thus, to improve the accuracy of modeling in soft measurements (on example of the rice leaves modeling and data processing). Initially, the program collects the statistical data of learning assemblies analysis results and evaluates the values of SVR parameters, after then it uses developed by the authors improved fruit fly optimization algorithm to get more accurate values of SVR parameters. During the experiments, the obtained results were compared with the results of work of classical Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA). It was found, that the authors' algorithm works more effective in convergence speed and accuracy. Thus, it provides the better solution of SVR optimal parameters selection problem.

A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of different forecasting models for monthly wind farm electricity production. This study compares the effectiveness of three forecasting models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and Support Vector Regression (SVR). This study utilizes data from two wind farms located in Poland—‘Gizałki’ and ‘Łęki Dukielskie’—to exclude the possibility of biased results due to specific characteristics of a single farm and to allow for a more comprehensive comparison of the effectiveness of both time series analysis methods. Model parameterization was optimized through a grid search based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The performance of the best models was evaluated using Mean Bias Error (MBE), MAPE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R2Score. For the Gizałki farm, the ARIMA model outperformed SARIMA and SVR, while for the Łęki Dukielskie farm, SARIMA proved to be the most accurate, highlighting the importance of optimizing seasonal parameters. The SVR method demonstrated the lowest effectiveness for both datasets. The results indicate that the ARIMA and SARIMA models are effective for forecasting wind farm energy production. However, their performance is influenced by the specificity of the data and seasonal patterns. The study provides an in-depth analysis of the results and offers suggestions for future research, such as extending the data to include multidimensional time series. Our findings have practical implications for enhancing the accuracy of wind farm energy forecasts, which can significantly improve operational efficiency and planning.

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) production forecasting is necessary for the optimal integration of this technology into existing power systems and is important for both grid and plant operators. The purpose of this work is to assess the performance of different machine learning models for predicting the power output of PV systems. Specifically, a variety of methods were explored including artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and regression trees (RT), with varied hyper-parameters and features. The output power prediction performance of each model was tested on actual PV production data-sets acquired over a period of a year and compared against an existing persistence model (PM). The comparative analysis between the different optimally devised models showed that the ANN outperformed the other models, achieving the lowest prediction mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and normalised root mean square error (nRMSE) of 0.6 % and 0.76 %, respectively. The prediction capabilities of the SVR and RT models can be considered equivalent for this case since the nRMSE results were 1.13 % and 1.33 %, respectively. Finally, all the models achieved higher relative improvement over the PM since the skill score (SS) ranged from 86 % to 92 %.

A novel support vector regression(SVR) was proposed for complex grouting process, which has the feature of invisible stratum and varied rock facture width. The features of SVR were selected through analyzing the major mechanism sub-models. In order to improve regression model performance, a fast embedded uniform algorithm of optimizing parameters of SVR was introduced. Two steps of optimization are adopted in the embedded uniform algorithm. Firstly rough parameters of SVR are found by throwing uniform point in rectangle area of parameters, seccondly the precise parameters of SVR are found in new subsection of grid. At last, 600 sets data have be selected to test in HENGYANG dam project of Hunan province in China. The results of simulation show that the embedded uniform method is superior to grid algorithm in arithmetic speed and precision in grouting model.

Globally, buildings are responsible for an estimated 40% of energy consumption and 33% of CO2 emissions. In a bid to reduce CO2 emissions and hence, global warming, it has become necessary to ensure the energy efficient construction and operation of buildings. Understanding how a building utilises energy is a critical step to increase its efficiency. In this study, we leverage on an open-source data obtained from UCI data repository. Exploratory data analysis and feature engineering were used to eliminate non-contributing features while identifying key attributes of the data for model training. Linear Regression (LR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were employed as the machine learning techniques for the study. The models were trained using a repeated cross-validation technique. The models’ performance was evaluated on an independent data set segregated for testing. The LR model was trained with nine out of thirty-three features, while the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model used twenty-eight features for its training. The SVR model had a higher variance (0.48), accuracy (92.41%), and lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.59% compared to the LR model's variance of 0.26, accuracy of 91.87%, and MAPE of 8.13%. The SVR model was more accurate in predicting energy consumption, as it showed better accuracy on the test set with lower MAPE and higher R-squared value. Both models outperformed a relatively complex and computationally expensive model in a previous study. It also identified areas with high energy consumption which could be used to inform the building's energy management strategy.

Evaluating the state of health (SOH) of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is essential for their safe deployment and the advancement of electric vehicles (EVs). Existing machine learning methods face challenges in the automation and effectiveness of feature extraction, necessitating improved computational efficiency. To address this issue, we propose a collaborative approach integrating an enhanced whale optimization algorithm (EWOA) for feature selection and a lightweight support vector regression (SVR) model for SOH estimation. Key features are extracted from charging voltage, current, temperature, and incremental capacity (IC) curves. The EWOA selects features by initially assigning weights based on importance scores from a random forest model. Gaussian noise increases population diversity, while a dynamic threshold method optimizes the selection process, preventing local optima. The selected features construct the SVR model for SOH estimation. This method is validated using four aging datasets from the NASA database, conducting 50 prediction experiments per battery. The results indicate optimal average absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) within 0.41% and 0.71%, respectively, with average errors below 1% and 1.3%. This method enhances automation and accuracy in feature selection while ensuring efficient SOH estimation, providing valuable insights for practical LIB applications.

Traditional time series forecasting models are difficult to capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector regression (SVR) is a powerful tool for modeling the inputs and output(s) of complex and nonlinear systems. However, parameters determination for a SVR model is competent to the forecasting accuracy. Several evolutionary algorithms, such as genetic algorithms and simulated annealing algorithms have been used to the parameters selection, however, these algorithms often suffer the problem of being trapped in local optimum. In this paper, a novel building cooling load forecasting approach combining support vector regression (SVR) and Ant colony algorithm (ACO) is proposed. ant colony (ACO) optimization was developed to optimize three parameters of SVR, including penalty parameter C, insensitive loss function ε and kernel function σ. SVR constructs hyperplane in high dimension space and fits the data in non-linear form. Normalized Mean square error (NMSE) of fitting result is used as target of ant colony optimization. ACO finds the best parameters which correspond to the NMSE. The results showed that the proposed approach, by comparing with back-propagation neural network model, was an efficient way to model building cooling load with good predictive accuracy. ACO and SVR provide a useful tool for maximizing the combustion efficiency of cooling load. Also, the method can be easily extended to other applications.

To explore an effective analysis model and method for estimating Cinnamomum camphora's (C. camphora's) growth using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral technology, we obtained C. camphora's canopy spectral reflectance using a UAV-mounted multispectral camera and simultaneously measured four single-growth indicators: Soil and Plant Analyzer Development (SPAD)value, aboveground biomass (AGB), plant height (PH), and leaf area index (LAI). The coefficient of variation and equal weighting methods were used to construct the comprehensive growth monitoring indicators (CGMI) for C. camphora. A multispectral inversion model of integrated C. camphora growth was established using the multiple linear regression (MLR), partial least squares (PLS), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and whale optimization algorithm (WOA)-optimized BPNN models. The optimal model was selected based on the coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our findings indicate that apparent differences in the accuracy with different model, and the WOA-BPNN model is the best model to invert the growth potential of C. camphora, the R2 of the model test set was 0.9020, the RMSE was 0.0722, and the MAPE was 7%. The R2 of the WOA-BPNN model improved by 18%, the NRMSE decreased by 33%, and the MAPE decreased by 9% compared with the BPNN model. This study provides technical support for the modern field management of C. camphora essential oil and other dwarf forestry industries.

The absorption of capillary water is one of the most crucial factors in the flow of groundwater in rocks (CWA). Although meticulous experimental studies are needed to determine a rock’s CWA, predictive techniques might cut down on the expense and effort. There are various data mining methods for this purpose, but the considered algorithms in this study were not proposed so far for predicting the CWA. Different rock samples were taken for this purpose from various locations, yielding diverse rocks. For the prediction procedures, four support vector regression (SVR) models were created: a traditional SVR, two ensembled models, and a hybrid SVR model using the whale optimization technique (WOA - SVR). Results show that all models have acceptable performance in predicting the CWA with R2 larger than 0.797 and 0.806 for the training and testing data, respectively, representing the acceptable correlation between observed and predicted values. Regarding developed models, the conventional SVR model has the worst performance of all models. All statistical evaluation criteria were improved by assembling models, which present the ability of additive regression and bagging predictions in improving prediction processes. The hybrid WOA - SVR model has the best performance considering all indices. This hybrid model could also gain the lowest values of error indices between all SVR models, which leads to outperforming the WOA - SVR model compared to other methods.

Predicting discharge coefficient of triangular labyrinth weir using Support Vector Regression, Support Vector Regression-firefly, Response Surface Methodology and Principal Component Analysis

. This study introduces support vector regression (SVR) approach to model the relationship between the glass transition temperature (Tg) and multipole moments for polymers. SVR was trained and tested via 60 samples by using two quantum chemical descriptors including the molecular traceless quadrupole moment and the molecular average hexadecapole moment Φ. The prediction performance of SVR was compared with that of reported quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) model. The results show that the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of training samples and test samples achieved by SVR model, are smaller than those achieved by the QSPR model, respectively. This investigation reveals that SVR-based modeling is a practically useful tool in prediction of the glass transition temperature of polymers.

Remotely sensed air temperature data from NASA POWER are widely used in regions with scarce climatic observations, particularly for agricultural applications such as calculating crop water requirements. This study employed a suite of machine learning (ML) algorithms to correct biases in NASA POWER air temperature outputs, including multiple support vector regression (SVR) variants—Linear SVR, Quadratic SVR, Cubic SVR, Fine Gaussian SVR, Medium Gaussian SVR, Coarse Gaussian SVR—and ensemble decision tree models: bagged trees (BGT) and boosted trees (BT). The objective of this study was to assess the ability of different ML algorithms to reduce biases in NASA POWER air temperature data, with the broader goal of identifying the most suitable ML method for air temperature bias correction in Nigeria. For this analysis, we used daily air temperature records from seven meteorological stations across diverse regions of Nigeria. The performance of NASA POWER minimum and maximum air temperature datasets was evaluated using standard error metrics. Subsequent application of ML algorithms significantly improved data accuracy: the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the corrected outputs was mostly below 10%, indicating excellent predictive performance when ML was integrated. Among the SVR variants tested, Fine Gaussian SVR consistently yielded the best prediction results. This finding suggests that Fine Gaussian SVR is a robust tool for enhancing the reliability of air temperature data—critical for improving the accuracy of crop water requirement calculations in regions where in-situ air temperature observations are limited.