Forecasting Tanzania GDP per Capita, 2013 – 2021

Canadian and U.S. Real Income Growth Pre and Post 2000: A Reversal of Fortunes

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. See U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Real Historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Growth Rates of GDP,” November 2, 2009, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/ [See dataset titled “Real GDP (2005 dollars) Historical”] 2. This figure is calculated based on data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, “72SIC_VA, GO, II,” June 17, 2004, http://www.bea.gov/industry/xls/GDPbyInd_VA_SIC.xls. 3. See Brian M. Lindberg and Justin M. Monaldo, “Annual Industry Accounts: Advance Statistics on GDP by Industry for 2007,” U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2008, http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2008/05%20May/0508_indy_acct.pdf and National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2008 (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2008), pp. 38, 42. 4. See Zhou Xiaochuan, “Reform the International Monetary System,” March 23, 2009, http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english//detail.asp?col=6500&ID=178. 5. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Economic and Social Survey 2010: Retooling Global Development,” E/2010/50/Rev.1, 2010, p. XXII. http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wess2010files/wess2010.pdf. 6. Hu Jintao, speech, fourth summit of G-20, Toronto, June 27, 2010, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/hujintaoG20fenghui/t712730.htm. Also see Hu Jintao, “Make Every Effort to Promote Growth and Balanced Development” (remarks, third summit of G-20, Pittsburgh, September 25, 2009),http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/hujintaoG20fenghui/t607838.htm. 7. See Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, “G20 Issues Leaders' Statement of the 3rd Financial Summit,” September 26, 2009, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/hujintaoG20fenghui/t616883.htm. 8. Alex Perry, “China's New Focus on Africa.” Time, July 24, 2010, http://205.188.238.109/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2000110_2000287_2000276-2,00.html. 9. See William Pesek, “Asia's Decoupling from US economy ‘a myth’,” May 9, 2007, http://forum.stirpes.net/economics/11637-asia-s-decoupling-us-economy-myth.html and Bruce Nussbaum, “Coupling and Decoupling in Davos,” Bloomberg Businessweek, January 23, 2008, http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/NussbaumOnDesign/archives/2008/01/coupling_and_decoupling_in_davos.html. 10. Yukio Hatoyama, “Japan Must Shake Off U.S.-Style Globalization,” Christian Science Monitor, August 19, 2009, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/0819/p09s07-coop.html. 11. Yukio Hatoyama, “Japan Must Shake Off U.S.-Style Globalization,” Christian Science Monitor, August 19, 2009, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/0819/p09s07-coop.html. 12. Xie Yu and Ma Wei, “Cross-Straits Trade Deal to Cut Tariffs, Open Markets,” China Daily, June 30, 2010, http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-06/30/content_10037141.htm. Additional informationNotes on contributorsWu XinboWu Xinbo is a professor and deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, and a member of TWQ's editorial board

City/regional authorities are responsible for designing and structuring the urban morphology based on the desired land use activities. One of the key concerns regarding urban planning is to establish certain development goals, such as the real gross domestic product (GDP). In Canada, the gross national income (GNI) mainly relies on the mining and manufacturing industries. In order to estimate the impact of city development, this study aims to utilize remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to assess the relationship between the built-up area and the reported real GDP of seven major cities in Canada. The objectives of the study are: (1) to investigate the use of regression analysis between the built-up area derived from Landsat images and the industrial area extracted from Geographic Information System (GIS) data; and (2) to study the relationship between the built-up area and the socio-economic data (i.e., real GDP, total population and total employment). The experimental data include 42 multi-temporal Landsat TM images and 42 land use GIS vector datasets obtained from year 2005 to 2010 during the summer season (June, July and August) for seven major cities in Canada. The socio-economic data, including the real GDP, the total population and the total employment, are obtained from the Metropolitan Housing Outlook during the same period. Both the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to determine the built-up areas. Those high built-up values within the industrial areas were acquired for further analysis. Finally, regression analysis was conducted between the real GDP, the total population, and the total employment with respect to the built-up area. Preliminary findings showed a strong linear relationship (R2= 0.82) between the percentage of built-up area and industrial area within the corresponding city. In addition, a strong linear relationship (R2= 0.8) was found between the built-up area and socio-economic data. Therefore, the study justifies the use of remote sensing and GIS data to model the socio-economic data (i.e., real GDP, total population and total employment). The research findings can contribute to the federal/municipal authorities and act as a generic indicator for targeting a specific real GDP with respect to industrial areas.

The Impact of Domestic and Direct Foreign Investment on the Economic Growth in Sudan: Evidence from Granger Causality and VAR Framework Dr. Musa Albur Abstract Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment provide a crucial basis for economic development of any country. This study examines the causes and impacts of Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Domestic Investment (DI) and Real Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Sudan for the period from 1990 to 2011.The importance of this study stems from the vital role of investment (domestic and foreign) in the development process through enhancing economic growth, improving infrastructure and achieving welfare. This study adopted Vector Autoregressive Model and Granger Causality Test (1969). The study depended on secondary data collected from Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics. Our empirical evidence suggests that the causality directions running positively in the period (1990-2011). There is unidirectional causality of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), from Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), from Domestic Investment (DI) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), from real gross domestic product (RGDP) to domestic investment (DI), from foreign direct investment (FDI) to domestic investment (DI), and from domestic investment (DI) to foreign direct investment (FDI). Granger causality results show that there are no statistically significant implications of the independence causality relationship between Domestic Investment( DI) and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Gross Domestic Product(RGDP) to Domestic Investment( DI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ) to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ) to Domestic Investment(DI), and Domestic Investment ( DI) to Foreign Direct Investment(FDI). The VAR estimation shows that the coefficients of lagged RGDP significant in the regression of the RGDP, the coefficients of lagged DI significant in the regression of the DI and FDI, the coefficients of lagged DI insignificant in the regression of the RGDP, and the coefficients of lagged FDI insignificant in the regression of the RGDP.The study recommends raising more real financial resources for the purpose of investing in economic and social infrastructure as well as in oil exploration. Industrialization is highly recommended for import substitution purpose and for increasing the value added for Sudan's exports to benefit more from international trade. These require encouraging domestic saving, attraction of foreign funds to supplement the domestic component, strengthening foreign relations, and facilitating the investment procedures and thus achieving economic growth in the country. Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.15640/jeds.v7n4a9

Ghost of GDP: Sponge, Myth or Moustache Twitching?

Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

ABSTRACT: The economic costs of tobacco use are substantial particularly in developing countries. While much has been written on healthcare costs from tobacco use related diseases, little is known on the macro-economic impacts of tobacco-related productivity loss. The objective of the current research is to understand the macroeconomic burden of tobacco use in developing countries. Using World Bank's development indicators database for 44 low-and lower-middle-income countries, most of which are African, this paper assesses the relationship between tobacco consumption and economic growth. Specifically, using the fixed effect regression approach, we examined whether tobacco prevalence affects long-run growth rate in the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We adopted an empirical framework from the growth literature by including the national tobacco prevalence rate as one of the determinants of long-run growth in the real GDP per capita. The tobacco prevalence rate varies across countries ranging from 5% in Ethiopia to almost 50% in Myanmar. The prevalence rate is much higher among males than females in almost all countries, with Myanmar males having above 70%. The regression results indicate the existence of a statistically significant negative relationship between the prevalence of tobacco and economic growth after controlling for other determinants of growth, including the initial level of GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation, trade, resource revenues, institutional quality, a human capital indicator, and infrastructure capacity. A 1% increase in the total tobacco prevalence rate reduces the economic growth rate by almost 2%, all else equal. These findings are robust even after running separate models for male and female tobacco prevalence rates. The results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the previous empirical studies on economic growth in the context of developing countries. The findings of this study provide additional support to the existing body of empirical economic research on the role of better health, as a form of human capital, in increasing economic output. Thus, actively targeting tobacco control interventions, both in and outside of the workplace, can likely improve workers' productivity and hence economic growth.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the long‐run relationships and threshold effects between inflation and economic growth in Mexico.Design/methodology/approachThe paper shows the existence of such relationship in a cointegrated vector on economic growth (log of real gross domestic product (GDP)) and inflation rate finding a corresponding elasticity significantly negative. Moreover, the causal relationship between these two series is studied using a more robust Granger causality test, without finding any directional causality between them.FindingsThe estimated threshold model suggests 9 percent as the threshold level (i.e. structural break point) of inflation above which inflation significantly slows the Mexican economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper uses the cointegration technique, and finds a significant and negative long‐run relationship between inflation and economic growth for the Mexican economy. In addition, it is found that inflation is weakly exogenous. In the period 1970‐2007 real GDP was elastic with respect to inflation, and therefore, considering the estimated coefficient, an increase of 1 percent on inflation produces a decrease of 1.5 percent on real GDP. Since, for most of the period under consideration Mexico experienced inflation rates higher than 10 percent, this result is consistent with most of the research suggesting that high levels of inflation produce a negative effect on economic growth.Practical implicationsThe analysis could be useful for policymakers in providing some clue in setting an optimal inflation target. For instance, the Mexican Central Bank could apply an expansionary monetary policy for supporting economic growth until the inflation rate does not exceed the threshold level. In fact, the threshold analysis suggests that if the inflation rate exceeds 9 percent, then Mexico's current favorable economic performance might be jeopardized.Originality/valueSpecifically, this paper focuses on two questions: is there any long‐run relationship between economic growth and inflation in Mexico? Is there a statistically significant threshold level of inflation above which inflation affects growth differently than at lower inflation rates in Mexico? Motivated by these questions, this present paper first examines cointegration techniques and then, threshold estimations.

In this research, the impact of total early-stage entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness of the economy on the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is analyzed in a cross-section of world economies using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In the attempt to select between the linear and the double-logarithmic model, the regression diagnostics and quality of the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables were analyzed. The functional form of the model was tested by the MacKinnon, White and Davidson test. Model selection methods regarding the comparison of coefficients of determination and the Akaike information criterion were used. The results of the analysis show that independent variables have a statistically significant impact on the real GDP per capita, and that the real GDP per capita is elastic to the changes of competitiveness but inelastic to the changes of total early-stage entrepreneurial activity.

Natural Resources, the Terms of Trade, and Real Income Growth in Canada: 1870 to 2010

This study aims to investigate the relationship between exchange rate, Domestic Money Supply (M2), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Indonesia’s current account balance (CAB) in the short and long term. For the purpose of this study, the Error Correction Model (ECM) is used. It uses data during the period 2000-2017. The result showed that (a) M2, real GDP, and FDI in the short-term have not significant effect on Indonesia’s current account but exchange rate has a significant negative effect; (b) in the long-term exchange rate, M2, and real GDP have not significant effect on Indonesia’s CAB, while FDI has a negative significant effect on Indonesia’s CAB. Policy recommendation for government as an implication of this study (a) stabilize the exchange rate in order to decrease current account deficit (CAD); (b) improve the investment climate and issue incentive policies for local investor; (c) increase the competitiveness of export-oriented products and reduce dependence on imports.

This study focused on the role of the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) in stimulating economic growth in Uganda based on the premise that its contribution is not evident and yet is has been documented that economic growth is accelerated once a stock exchange opens, and that, securities markets support economic growth and can increase economic efficiency, investment and growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) of a country. This quantitative study focused on a period of twenty five years (1986-2010). Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure was adopted because the Uganda’s stock market is not only small but also very young. The study variables included real GDP as a proxy of economic growth; while the proxies for the stock exchange development were shares traded, market turnover, and market capitalization. The sources of these data included Uganda Bureau os Statictics, Bank of Uganda, USE, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank databases. Analyses were carried out using SPSS and SHAZAM computer softwares. Real GDP was established to be more closely correlated to market capitalisation [Pearson’s r = .973, Sig. (2-tail) = .000] than it is with the turnover [Pearson’s r = .634, Sig. (2-tail) = .036] and the shares traded [Pearson’s r = .730, Sig. (2-tail) = .011]. While a strong and statistically significant correlation was established between the economic growth and the Exchange, the Granger causality relationship findings were inconclusive further affirming that stock markets are not a sine qua non of economic growth. It was recommended that the government should support USE to attract more investors and become more vibrant. Also, USE should take advantage of the East African Stock Markets Association (EASEA) to grow its operations and market base.

Okun’s law posits a one-way relationship running from gross domestic product (GDP) to the unemployment rate. According to this law, an increase in GDP beyond its potential level will result in a decrease in the unemployment rate. In practice, potential real GDP is often taken to be the trend GDP, and the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP is termed the real GDP gap. The empirical literature typically estimates potential GDP using a linear trend approach. However, employing a linear trend to estimate potential GDP assumes that these values remain constant over the period under consideration. However, in reality, there are many reasons why potential GDP cannot remain constant over time, but rather can change. In such cases, using a Kalman filter approach instead of a simple linear trend is more appropriate. Furthermore, because the unemployment rate is measured at a higher frequency than GDP, unemployment data are typically not used at their original frequency in empirical analyses. In this study, the validity of Okun’s law is tested by utilizing the unemployment rate at its original frequency for the Turkish economy. By employing a restricted reverse MIDAS (RR-MIDAS) model in our analysis, we find that Okun’s law holds for the Turkish economy over the period examined.

A reliable long range forecast of US energy demand would seem to be important for meaningful planning by government, industry, and academia. Yet actual forecasts are generally either short-term or poorly match long-term history or both. This paper describes a simple function that fits historical US data through many turbulent economic times from 1929 through 2002 with a correlation coefficient of 0.99. Population and real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are the only independent variables needed. Some counterintuitive conclusions emerge. For example, price of oil is not a component of the history matching function. High prices have an offsetting negative impact on both energy demand and GDP. Hence, artificially increasing energy prices with a large consumption tax to reduce demand is a bad idea. Historically, high prices have jacked up inflation, too, which impacts real GDP and mitigates historical price effects. Inflation jumped four-fold with the high prices in the 70's and 80's. During the 74-year period of history match, US energy demand grew fourfold, population more than doubled, and real GDP grew 12-fold. Oil and gas use rose from 18% of total commercial energy to 63%, and coal declined from 78% to only 23%, changes of staggering magnitude. Use of this forecasting relationship for long-term projections of US energy demand also yields surprising results. For assumed long term real economic growth rates of one or three percent (the historical average), and generally accepted estimates of future US population growth, forecast energy demand, in the year 2100, are 52 quads and 366 quads, respectively, or either half, or four times, today's use, an astonishing range of outcomes for such a seemingly small difference in US economic growth rate. This suggests remarkable sensitivity of energy consumption to economic growth rate. Other current and historical energy forecast methods and results, and possible applications to other economic entities, are also discussed and analyzed.

The sustainable development of a country is assumed to be a healthy sign for domestic consumers as well as producers. As private consumption is a vital component of real gross domestic product (GDP) and it can influence economic growth. This study explored a dynamic relationship between economic growth represented by real GDP and real private consumption expenditure (PCE). Stationarity of private consumption expenditure and GDP in first differences led to cointegration analysis between these time series data. Cointegration test indicated the existence of co-integrating relationship between these two variables. Vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to test the possibility of long-run adjustment towards equilibrium as well as nature of short-run dynamics. Granger causality test shows plausible role of short run consumption dynamics significantly improve predictive power of the model for real GDP growth.