• Home
  • Search
  • From deviation risk to trajectory complexity: machine learning-based deviation characterization and tortuosity analysis for wellbore quality assessment.
  • https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-48924-2Copy DOI Icon

From deviation risk to trajectory complexity: machine learning-based deviation characterization and tortuosity analysis for wellbore quality assessment.

Show More
  • Abstract
  • Literature Map
  • Similar Papers
Abstract

Unintentional wellbore deviation presents persistent challenges in drilling operations, often leading to cumulative trajectory irregularities that can compromise downhole equipment reliability and production performance. This study presents an integrated framework that combines machine learning (ML)-based prediction of deviation risk with a tortuosity-based engineering diagnostic to interpret the geometric and operational consequences of deviation. Using well-log-derived formation and geomechanical properties, multiple supervised ML classifiers are developed and evaluated, with the Random Forest (RF) model demonstrating robust performance in identifying deviation-prone intervals. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving a test accuracy of 96.67%, cross-validation accuracy of 98.31%, precision of 97%, recall of 99%, F1-score of 98%, ROC-AUC of 0.9975, PR-AUC of 0.9946, MCC of 0.963, and a log-loss of 0.647. A comprehensive feature importance and sensitivity analysis revealed features such as formation density, shale volume, and Poisson's ratio as the top classifiers, accounting for 46.4%, 28.5%, and 19.2%, respectively, of the model's decision-making criteria. To translate the deviation risk into physically interpretable trajectory complexity, a three-dimensional tortuosity index is incorporated, capturing cumulative curvature arising from frequent inclination and azimuth changes along the wellbore. Application to field wells from a major onshore unconventional basin in the United States with documented artificial lift system failures indicated that elevated vertical-section tortuosity is associated with specific failure mechanisms, including sucker rod and tubing-related failures, highlighting the mechanical relevance of trajectory quality beyond directional control. In contrast, analysis of lateral-section tortuosity showed no observable association with first-year production normalized by lateral length, consistent with prior findings that tortuosity in the lateral section does not directly impair production performance. By linking formation-driven deviation risk, trajectory complexity, and mechanical implications, the proposed framework provides a practical methodology for planning-stage deviation risk characterization and post-drill assessment of wellbore quality, supporting informed well design and artificial lift decision-making.

Similar Papers
  • Research Article
  • Citations83

Identifying probable post-traumatic stress disorder: applying supervised machine learning to data from a UK military cohort

  • Nov 16, 2018
  • Journal of Mental Health
  • Daniel Leightley +3
  • Research Article
  • Citations8

Challenges, Opportunities Abound for Artificial Lift

  • Mar 01, 2013
  • Journal of Petroleum Technology
  • Joel Parshall
  • Research Article
  • Citations18

Machine learning-assisted design of immunomodulatory lipid nanoparticles for delivery of mRNA to repolarize hyperactivated microglia

  • Mar 03, 2025
  • Drug Delivery
  • Mehrnoosh Rafiei +2
  • Research Article

Machine Learning-Based Models for Prediction of Subtype Diagnosis of Primary Aldosteronism Using Blood Test

  • May 03, 2021
  • Journal of the Endocrine Society
  • Hiroki Kaneko +11
  • Research Article

Analysis of geomechanical properties for evaluation of the Cretaceous reservoirs using well logging data in the Silah field, El-Gindi basin, North Western Desert, Egypt

  • Dec 01, 2025
  • New Valley University Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences
  • Mohamed Osman Ebraheem +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations10

Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Sentiment Analysis of Bangla Newspaper

  • Oct 31, 2021
  • International Journal of Innovative Computing
  • Sabrina Jahan Maisha +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

Machine learning & fairness: an integrated multicriteria approach for the evaluation of supervised classifiers

  • Sep 01, 2025
  • Journal of the Operational Research Society
  • Jean-David Fermanian +2
  • Conference Article
  • Citations18

Evaluating Machine Learning Classifiers to detect Android Malware

  • Nov 06, 2020
  • Prerna Agrawal +1
  • Research Article
  • Citations14

Prediction and feature selection of low birth weight using machine learning algorithms

  • Oct 12, 2024
  • Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition
  • Tasneem Binte Reza +1
  • Research Article

Technology Focus: Artificial Lift (October 2025)

  • Oct 01, 2025
  • Journal of Petroleum Technology
  • Fahd Saghir
  • Research Article
  • Citations2

#ESHREjc report: on the road to preconception and personalized counselling with machine learning models.

  • May 20, 2022
  • Human Reproduction
  • Juan J Fraire-Zamora +8
  • Conference Article
  • Citations8

Pioneering Integrative Solution for Enhancing Wellbore Quality Thru the Application of Multiple Real Time Monitoring Services in Deviated and Lateral Sections in Deep Gas Wells

  • Dec 15, 2021
  • Edison Barrera +5
  • PDF
  • Research Article
  • Citations12

Inversion of winter wheat leaf area index from UAV multispectral images: classical vs. deep learning approaches.

  • Mar 14, 2024
  • Frontiers in Plant Science
  • Jiaxing Zu +4
  • Research Article

Pollution source identification, classification, and prediction in freshwater lakes: a hybrid water quality assessment framework integrating machine learning.

  • Mar 13, 2026
  • Environmental monitoring and assessment
  • Sudhakar Ningthoujam +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations10

An Improvised Random Forest Model for Breast Cancer Classification

  • May 18, 2022
  • NeuroQuantology
  • Dr Tina Elizabeth Mathew
Cactus Communications logo

Copyright 2026 Cactus Communications. All rights reserved.