A call to action for concentrated HIV epidemics.
As the HIV community attempts to define what is meant by terms like “The End of the AIDS Epidemic,” or the goal of “An AIDS Free Generation,” as articulated by the U.S. Government [1], the relevance of accurate, granular, and precise epidemiologic characterization of HIV prevalence, incidence trends, and other key indicators has only increased. The level or declining resource base for global HIV surveillance, prevention, treatment, and care mandates strategic and much more nuanced use of resources where they will matter most. The current conceptualization of geographic, geospatial, ‘hot spot,’ or high transmission and burden zones of HIV is one approach aimed at focusing resources to where HIV is currently spreading, where high proportions of people living with HIV infection remain untested and untreated, or where sub-epidemics, often among those at risk for both HIV infection and lack of access to services, persist [2]. A sea change in thinking is underway, and is long overdue, in responding to what have long been characterized as concentrated epidemics [3]. As the papers in this issue demonstrate, this understanding is also changing the way we think about the role of concentrated epidemics within generalized ones. We can no longer afford broad and low efficacy or inefficacious campaigns aimed at “youth” or “reproductive aged adults” when relatively small numbers of people, largely excluded from such programs, are those most in need of services, and of services tailored to their actual risks, HIV treatment needs, and lived experiences. The last several years have seen heartening decreases in HIV incidence in many of the world’s (relatively few) generalized epidemic contexts [4]. With a handful of exceptions, these epidemics have been limited to Southern and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, and they have been devastating. Few epidemiologists predicted that we would see the impressive gains in HIV control now being reported from many of these hardest hit regions. Fewer still would have predicted that in 2013 we would be seeing so much success in control of these primarily sexually and perinatally driven epidemics, and so little in the concentrated epidemics. The latter involve many fewer people, are much more likely to be focused in urban areas, and have been primary foci of HIV research, programs, and community efforts since the initial identification of HIV/AIDS in the 1980s. Yet this is what the papers in this issue clearly demonstrate. That over 60% of new HIV infections in the U.S. in 2011 (the year for which we have the most current data from the U.S. CDC) [5] should be occurring among the relatively small percentage of the population who are men who have sex with men [6] is just one example among all too many of the persistence of these concentrated epidemics [7], persistence which has continued despite the development and rollout of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) in much of the world.
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