Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Threat Assessment Model for Space Targets

We propose a dynamic differential Bayesian networks (DDBNs) and nonparametric regression model. This model is an extended model of traditional dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which can incorporate temporal information in a natural way and directly handle real-valued data obtained from microarrays without any transformation. In addition, it can cope with differential information between gene expression levels, without any loss to the traditional advantage, i.e., the capability of estimating non-linear relationships between genes. We apply DDBNs to analyze simulated data and real data, i.e., Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle gene expression data. We have confirmed the effectiveness of our approach in the sense that some edges have been successfully detected only by DDBNs, not by DBNs.

System operational reliability evaluation based on dynamic Bayesian network and XGBoost

Tracing and prediction analysis of an urban pipeline leakage accident based on the catastrophe DBN model

One of the major restrictions of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) is their inability to account for topological features such as shape descriptors, homeomorphy, homotopy, and invariance. The main reason for this shortcoming is explained by the fact that even if dynamic Bayesian networks encode statistical relationships; they are not embedded in a Euclidean space where mathematical structures abound. The goal is to embed DBNs into a Euclidean space such that these topological features can be exploited. This extension of DBNs to topological DBNs (TDBNs) leapfrogs the task of pattern recognition and machine learning by not only classifying objects but revealing how they are related topologically. We have applied the TDBN formalism to facial aging for person identification. Preliminary results reveal that the TDBNs outperform the traditional DBN with an accuracy margin of 8% in average.

Nowadays, several components and systems are designed and produced based on reliability. Since the reliability criterion has an important role in purchasing and implementation of these systems. In the design of a reliable system, fault and failure analysis must be carried out in order to reduce fault probability of the system. When dependency and the relation between components of a complex system are important and should be mentioned, determination of system reliability is very difficult. In this paper, dynamic fault tree is used to evaluate the systems reliability that their behavior is varied with time. Dynamic fault tree is constructed and then it converted to dynamic bayesian network. In this paper, the principle of dynamic fault tree gates and their mapping into dynamic bayesian are explained and some new relations between events and gates for this mapping are proposed. GeNIe package is used to determine dynamic bayesian network based on stochastic sampling algorithms. Four systems (cardiac assist system, hypothetical cascaded priority-and system, inertial navigation system/ global positioning system integrated, and emergency detection system) are investigated; reliability and fault probability of these systems are calculated. Comparison of the results with those obtained by other researches shows the proposed method effectiveness for systems reliability modeling and assessment via dynamic bayesian network.

In order to find out the problems of students' learning in the online learning process in time and ensure that students can successfully complete the online learning course, the dynamic Bayesian network is used to predict students' online learning scores. First, the online course Bayesian network is established, and then the dynamic Bayesian network is established by combining the Bayesian network and hidden Markov according to the time slice. The maximum expectation algorithm is used for Bayesian parameter learning, and the scores are predicted according to video learning, chapter test and other influencing factors. The results show that the dynamic Bayesian network can effectively predict the online learning results, the prediction results provide teachers with decision-making, and students can carry out targeted reinforcement learning according to the prediction results in the learning process.

The supply chain is the central organizing unit in today's global industries and has gained significance as one of the 21st century manufacturing paradigms for improving organizational competitiveness. In this paper, we propose a dynamic Bayesian network to represent the cause-and-effect relationships in an industrial supply chain. Based on the Quick Scan, a systematic data analysis and synthesis methodology, a dynamic Bayesian network is employed as a more descriptive mechanism to model the causal relationships in the supply chain. Dynamic Bayesian networks can be utilized as a knowledge base of the reasoning systems where the diagnostic tasks are conducted. We finally solve this reasoning problem with stochastic simulation.

Students’ performance and motivation are influenced by their emotions. Game-based learning (GBL) environments comprise elements that facilitate learning and the creation of an emotional connection with students. GBL environments include Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) to ensure personalized learning. ITSs reason about students’ needs and characteristics (student modeling) to provide suitable instruction (tutor modeling). The authors’ research is focused on the design and implementation of an emotional student model for GBL environments based on the Control-Value Theory of achievement emotions by Pekrun et al. (2007). The model reasons about answers to questions in game dialogues and contextual variables related to student behavior acquired through students’ interaction with PlayPhysics. The authors’ model is implemented using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), which are derived using Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs), machine learning techniques, and statistical methods. This work compares an earlier approach that uses Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and cross-tabulation for learning the structure and conditional probability tables with an approach that employs Necessary Path Condition and Expectation Maximization algorithms. Results showed that the latter approach is more effective at classifying the control of outcome-prospective emotions. Future work will focus on applying this approach to classification of activity and outcome-retrospective emotions.

In order to reduce the risks caused by congestion to scenic spot management and tourist safety, a dynamic Bayesian network model based on K-means++ clustering is proposed to realize the prediction of tourist transfer volume between scenic spots. Firstly, the K-means++ method is used to cluster the tourist transfer volume between scenic spots, we select the best number of clustering by the elbow rule, and the grade interval is determined by clustering results. Secondly, we consider the passenger transfer volume and tourist flow as the nodes of the dynamic Bayesian network, which can estimate the probability of tourist transfer from the upstream scenic spots to the target scenic spot, and the tourist volume of the target scenic spot is predicted. Finally, the confusion matrix is used to verify the validity of the proposed model. The case study shows: 1.) The prediction accuracy of the model can reach about 96%, which indicates that the model is suitable for tourist flow prediction. 2.) Compared to ARIMA, SVR, K-means + BN, and K-means + DBN, the proposed model has better prediction accuracy. 3.) The Bayesian network model outperforms deep learning models in interpretability.

Combined network and mathematical modeling suggests novel inflammation positive feedback circuit and role for IL-1α in experimental trauma/hemorrhage and hepatocyte hypoxia

Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) theory provides a valid tool to estimate the risk of disruptions, propagating along the supply chain (SC), i.e. the ripple effect. However, in cases of data scarcity, obtaining perfect information on probability distributions required by the DBN is impractical. To overcome this difficulty, a new robust DBN approach is, for the first time, proposed in this study to analyse the worst-case oriented disruption propagation in the SC. This work considers an SC with multiple suppliers and one manufacturer over several time periods, in which only probability intervals of the suppliers' states and those of the related disruption propagations are known. The objective is to acquire the robust performance of risk estimation, measured by the worst-case probability in the disrupted state for the manufacturer. We first establish a nonlinear programming formulation to mathematically materialise the proposed robust DBN, which can be used to solve small-size problems. To overcome the computational difficulty in solving large-size problems, an efficient simulated annealing algorithm is further designed. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate its efficiency.

A New Approach to Learning in Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)

The text dissects the exploration of employing dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) for reliably assessing the risk posed to supply chain networks. A growing recognition of the complexity and intricacy of contemporary supply chain networks has sparked interest in novel methodologies such as DBNs that can model temporal and spatial dependencies effectively. DBNs emerge as a powerful analytical tool enabling probabilistic inference under prevailing uncertainties, capturing both the inherent and external risks. The paper demonstrates how these networks, bestowed with both temporal and causal mathematical frameworks, offer superior analytical traction over traditional methods in understanding the interconnected risk elements. We discuss their ability to appraise the ever-changing vulnerabilities in a supply chain setting, dynamically adapting to modifications brought by stakeholder actions or market changes. As supply chains burgeon in complexity, the role of DBNs in enabling a robust, comprehensive understanding of risk factors becomes increasingly paramount. Thus, the paper advocates for the DBNs' application as a transformative approach to risk assessment, providing significant foresight and adaptability in an unpredictable supply chain landscape.

Buildings are subject to faults in their heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems that can lead to excessive energy wastage, poor indoor climate, equipment failures and high maintenance costs. Field studies have shown that employing fault detection, diagnosis and prognosis (FDDP) tools followed up with equipment services and corrections can help achieve up to 40% of energy savings within the HVAC system and improve indoor climate, increase equipment lifecycle and reduce maintenance costs. The increasing adoption of building automation systems (BAS), Internet of Things (IoT) and other smart technologies in recent years have allowed large amounts of data to be continuously collected from building systems. This data-rich environment, along with the surge in data analytics and machine learning tools, has made cost-effective data-driven FDDP strategies possible. Compared to purely physics-based methods, data-driven methods require less explicit knowledge of the underlying physical system, thus are often easier to develop, and can learn certain intricate relationships that exist among data. Within the reported data-driven FDDP methods, there exists a few research gaps: 1) data imputation methods that leverage mutual information from correlated measurements to defy poor data quality from BAS have not been utilized efficiently; 2) there lacks a systematic and scalable fault diagnosis framework that incorporates probabilistic temporal relationships to track fault evolution; 3) existing fault diagnosis strategies typically focus on traditional rule-based control strategies and their scalability for advanced control strategies such as Guideline 36 have not been explored yet; 4) active threats information such as cyber-attacks, are typically not incorporated in an FDDP framework; 5) fault prognosis strategies to preemptively identify gradual faults for predictive maintenance have rarely been studied. This research attempts to address the above-mentioned research gaps through the following: Data Imputation: reported data imputation methods that are suitable for handling and repairing multi-source BAS data are evaluated. Data collected from a medium-sized, mixed-use institution building situated in Stockholm, Sweden and a small commercial building simulated in a laboratory setup is used to evaluate five different data imputation methods. Results demonstrate that incorporating time-lagged cross-correlations within the k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method helps to significantly improve the imputation accuracy and minimize the impact of repaired data on data-driven algorithms. Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based Framework for Cyber-Physical Fault Diagnosis: a DBN framework with discretized conditional probabilities parameters to represent the temporal relationships among building measurements is developed. Both domain knowledge and machine learning methods are used to develop the DBN structure and parameter model. The developed framework is evaluated for both traditional rule-based and Guideline 36 controls using datasets from a real building, a laboratory building, and a virtual testbed. Results show that the developed DBN framework is effective in diagnosing and isolating faults in systems even with different control strategies. The framework also successfully distinguishes whether system abnormalities originate from cyber-attacks or naturally occurring physical faults. Potential future direction to improve fault isolation using modified DBN topological structure is also reported in this study. DBN-based Framework for Fault Prognosis: an extension of the DBN framework in conjunction with Robust Multivariate Temporal (RMT) variate selection is proposed for fault prognosis. The RMT variate selection is used to extract localized temporal features from high dimensional datasets to determine the best inputs for training forecasting models. The expected fault-free behavior of multiple target variates, selected using domain knowledge, is forecasted using incoming data. The prediction errors generated from the forecasting phase are used as evidences in the DBN inference to estimate future fault probabilities. Gradual faults simulated in the virtual testbed are used to evaluate the prognosis framework. Results show that the developed framework is effective in prognosing gradual faults by leveraging the trending growth on the prediction errors. The research presented in this thesis contributes to the overall objective of developing a robust and cost-effective DBN-based framework for fault diagnosis and prognosis of building HVAC systems. Potential solutions to other existing challenges of implementing data-driven FDDP strategies, such as obtaining high-quality datasets, handling and repairing missing data, establishing a baseline model for detecting abnormalities despite other disturbances such as weather and internal conditions changes, and extracting temporal features from timeseries data are also examined.

The unreliability evaluation of a system including dependencies involving the state of components or the failure events, can be performed by modelling the system as a dynamic fault tree (DFT). The combinatorial technique used to solve standard Fault Trees is not suitable for the analysis of a DFT. The conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is a way to analyze a DFT. This paper presents a software tool allowing the automatic analysis of a DFT exploiting its conversion to a DBN. First, the architecture of the tool is described, together with the rules implemented in the tool, to convert dynamic gates in DBNs. Then, the tool is tested on a case of system: its DFT model and the corresponding DBN are provided and analyzed by means of the tool. The obtained unreliability results are compared with those returned by other tools, in order to verify their correctness. Moreover, the use of DBNs allows to compute further results on the model, such as diagnostic and sensitivity indices