Gaussian Process Regression Plus Method for Localization Reliability Improvement.

We propose a supervised machine learning (ML) approach based on Gaussian process (GP) regression to position users in a distributed massive multiple-input multiple-output (DM-MIMO) system from their uplink received signal strength (RSS). The proposed approach serves as a proof-of-concept that we can localize users by training an ML model with noise-free RSS and using the trained model to estimate the test user locations from their noisy RSS. We consider two GP methods for localization, namely, the conventional GP (CGP) and the numerical approximation GP (NaGP). We find that the CGP provides unrealistically small $2\sigma $ error-bars on the location estimates. Therefore, we derive the true predictive distribution and employ NaGP to obtain realistic $2\sigma $ error-bars on the location estimates. Next, we derive a Bayesian Cramer–Rao lower bound (BCRLB) on the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) performance of the two GP methods. Numerical studies reveal that: 1) the NaGP indeed provides realistic $2\sigma $ error-bars on the estimated locations; 2) both the CGP and NaGP achieve RMSEs that are close to the BCRLBs; 3) the presence of correlated shadowing improves the RMSE performance; and 4) extrapolation to the zero input noise scenario can significantly improve the RMSE achieved by the NaGP.

A major challenge in the development of peptide-based vaccines is finding the right immunogenic element, with efficient and long-lasting immunization effects, from large potential targets encoded by pathogen genomes. Computer models are convenient tools for scanning pathogen genomes to preselect candidate immunogenic peptides for experimental validation. Current methods predict many false positives resulting from a low prevalence of true positives. We develop a test reject method based on the prediction uncertainty estimates determined by Gaussian process regression. This method filters false positives among predicted epitopes from a pathogen genome. The performance of stand-alone Gaussian process regression is compared to other state-of-the-art methods using cross validation on 11 benchmark data sets. The results show that the Gaussian process method has the same accuracy as the top performing algorithms. The combination of Gaussian process regression with the proposed test reject method is used to detect true epitopes from the Vaccinia virus genome. The test rejection increases the prediction accuracy by reducing the number of false positives without sacrificing the method's sensitivity. We show that the Gaussian process in combination with test rejection is an effective method for prediction of T-cell epitopes in large and diverse pathogen genomes, where false positives are of concern.

Fingerprint based Wi-Fi localisation system often takes a lot of human efforts to measure the received signal strength (RSS) of dense grid in an indoor environment. In this paper, we propose a novel fingerprint database construction method with reduced human effort to obtain optimal length of RSS time series and grid division. We verify the chaotic characteristics of RSS time series, and use phase space reconstruction algorithm to calculate the optimal length of RSS data to be collected at each reference point. Then Gaussian process regression (GPR) for fingerprinting based indoor localisation is used to construct the database with information of limited reference points. The hyper-parameters of GPR is calculated by conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The performance of the proposed radio map construction framework is validated in real indoor environment, and with using Bayesian positioning method, the localisation error mean can be 1.5 m while the construction time of radio map is greatly reduced with ensuring accuracy.

This paper describes a real-time data collection framework and an adaptive machining learning method for constructing a real-time energy prediction model for a machine tool. To effectively establish the energy consumption pattern of a machine tool over time, the energy prediction model is continuously updated with new measurement data to account for time-varying effects of the machine tool, such as tool wear and machine tool deterioration. In this work, a real-time data collection and processing framework is developed to retrieve raw data from a milling machine tool and its sensors and convert them into relevant input features. The extracted input features are then used to construct the energy prediction model using Gaussian Process (GP) regression. To update the GP regression model with real-time streaming data, we investigate the use of sparse representation of the covariance matrix to reduce the computational and storage demands of the GP regression. We compare computational efficiency of sparse GP to that of full GP regression model and show the effectiveness of the sparse GP regression model for tracking the variation in the energy consumption pattern of the target machine.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In this work, we seek to overcome these issues through (i) employing variational free energy approximations of GPs operating in tandem with online expectation propagation steps; and (ii) introducing a local splitting step which instantiates a new GP whenever the posterior distribution changes significantly as quantified by the Wasserstein metric over posterior distributions. Over time, then, this yields an ensemble of sparse GPs which may be updated incrementally, and adapts to locality, heterogeneity, and non-stationarity in training data. We provide a 1-dimensional example to illustrate the motivation behind our approach, and compare the performance of our approach to other Gaussian process methods across various data sets, which often achieves competitive, if not superior predictive performance, relative to other locality-based GP regression methods in which hyperparameters are learned in an online manner.

Mechanical property prediction plays a crucial role in the steel industry, enabling better materials selection and enhancing production efficiency. In this study, we propose a novel framework that facilitates optimal materials selection for steel’s alloying elements, based on accurate predictions of the Jominy hardness curve. Leveraging Gaussian Process (GP) regression, we provide probabilistic predictions of steel hardenability characteristics from alloy element composition. Taking it a step further, our framework incorporates these accurate predictions into a constrained optimization process, yielding optimal compositions that reduce overall spending while meeting performance specifications. Through data obtained from 1080 steel samples, our GP regression model exhibits high accuracy, achieving an RMSE of 1.37 and showcasing significant improvements in the field. Moreover, our constrained optimization utilizing the GP model and historical market data reveals an average cost reduction of 18% on alloying element expenses, highlighting the tangible cost-saving potential of this approach. By leveraging Gaussian Process (GP) regression, we not only achieve accurate predictions of the Jominy hardness curve based on alloy element composition, but we also introduce a crucial element of uncertainty quantification. This empowers us to place trust in the results of our optimization process, ensuring robust and reliable materials selection. The integration of GP regression and optimization provides a powerful tool for achieving cost-effective materials selection and marks a significant advancement compared to existing studies. This research underscores the promise of machine learning in the steel industry, demonstrating its ability to yield substantial cost savings and enhance decision-making in materials selection.

Earth observation from satellite sensory data pose challenging problems, where machine learning is currently a key player. In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression and other kernel methods have excelled in biophysical parameter estimation tasks from space. GP regression is based on solid Bayesian statistics, and generally yield efficient and accurate parameter estimates. However, GPs are typically used for inverse modeling based on concurrent observations and in situ measurements only. Very often a forward model encoding the well-understood physical relations is available though. In this work, we review three GP models that respect and learn the physics of the underlying processes in the context of inverse modeling. First, we will introduce a Joint GP (JGP) model that combines in situ measurements and simulated data in a single GP model. Second, we present a latent force model (LFM) for GP modeling that encodes ordinary differential equations to blend data-driven modeling and physical models of the system. The LFM performs multi-output regression, adapts to the signal characteristics, is able to cope with missing data in the time series, and provides explicit latent functions that allow system analysis and evaluation. Finally, we present an Automatic Gaussian Process Emulator (AGAPE) that approximates the forward physical model via interpolation, reducing the number of necessary nodes. Empirical evidence of the performance of these models will be presented through illustrative examples of vegetation monitoring and atmospheric modeling.

We use the Iocco et al. (2015) compilation of 2,780 circular velocity measurements to analyze the Milky Way rotation curve. We find that the error bars for individual measurements are non-gaussian, and hence instead derive median statistics binned central circular velocity values and error bars from these data. We use these median statistics central values and error bars to fit the data to simple, few parameter, rotation curve functions. These simple functions are unable to adequately capture the significant small scale spatial structure in these data and so provide poor fits. We introduce and use the Gaussian Processes (GP) method to capture this small scale structure and use it to derive Milky Way rotation curves from the binned median statistics circular velocity data. The GP method rotation curves have significant small-scale spatial structure superimposed on a broad rise to galactocentric radius $R\approx7$ kpc and a decline at larger $R$. We use the GP method median statistics rotation curve to measure the Oort $A$ and $B$ constants and other characteristic rotation curve quantities. We study correlations in the residual circular velocities (relative to the GP method rotation curve). Along with other evidence for azimuthal asymmetry of the Milky Way circular rotation velocity field, we find that larger residual circular velocities seem to favor parts of spiral arms.

The average lifetime or the mean time to failure (MTTF) of a product is an important metric to measure the product reliability. Current methods of evaluating the MTTF are mainly based on statistics or data. They need lifetime testing on a number of products to get the lifetime samples, which are then used to estimate the MTTF. The lifetime testing, however, is expensive in terms of both time and cost. The efficiency is also low because it cannot be effectively incorporated in the early design stage where many physics-based models are available. We propose to predict the MTTF in the design stage by means of a physics-based Gaussian process (GP) method. Since the physics-based models are usually computationally demanding, we face a problem with both big data (on the model input side) and small data (on the model output side). The proposed adaptive supervised training method with the Gaussian process regression can quickly predict the MTTF with a reduced number of physical model calls. The proposed method can enable continually improved design by changing design variables until reliability measures, including the MTTF, are satisfied. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by three examples.

Nonparametric modeling of ship maneuvering motion in waves based on Gaussian process regression

After the success of Global Positioning System (GPS) which provides precise positioning in open-sky areas having reliable satellites visibility, significant research is currently focused on providing similar systems for indoors in which satellites are poorly visible or unavailable. This paper introduces a GPS-like indoor positioning system based on Received Signal Strength (RSS) of the popular IEEE 802.11 networks (WiFi). Unlike current RSS-based indoor systems, the proposed system doesn't require time-consuming offline radio survey or prior-knowledge about the area or new hardware. Similar to GPS, the system consists of three segments; network segment (WiFi), control segment, and user segment. RSS observations are exchanged periodically between network segment and control segment. The control segment uses a novel hybrid propagation modeling (PM) technique using logarithmic decay model augmented by a nonlinear Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) that models RSS residuals that cannot be modeled by the traditional logarithmic decay models indoors. PM parameters are periodically estimated and sent to each AP. The user segment receives RSS and PM parameters from APs and performs trilateration weighting each observation by a variance calculated by GPR. Real experiments in indoor area show reliable meter accuracy comparable to those obtained from similar RSS-based indoor methods that uses offline time-consuming training such as fingerprinting.

BackgroundThe analysis of gene expression from time series underpins many biological studies. Two basic forms of analysis recur for data of this type: removing inactive (quiet) genes from the study and determining which genes are differentially expressed. Often these analysis stages are applied disregarding the fact that the data is drawn from a time series. In this paper we propose a simple model for accounting for the underlying temporal nature of the data based on a Gaussian process.ResultsWe review Gaussian process (GP) regression for estimating the continuous trajectories underlying in gene expression time-series. We present a simple approach which can be used to filter quiet genes, or for the case of time series in the form of expression ratios, quantify differential expression. We assess via ROC curves the rankings produced by our regression framework and compare them to a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for the analysis of gene expression time-series (BATS). We compare on both simulated and experimental data showing that the proposed approach considerably outperforms the current state of the art.ConclusionsGaussian processes offer an attractive trade-off between efficiency and usability for the analysis of microarray time series. The Gaussian process framework offers a natural way of handling biological replicates and missing values and provides confidence intervals along the estimated curves of gene expression. Therefore, we believe Gaussian processes should be a standard tool in the analysis of gene expression time series.

Kepler-78b is a transiting planet that is 1.2 times the radius of Earth and orbits a young, active K dwarf every 8 hours. The mass of Kepler-78b has been independently reported by two teams based on radial velocity measurements using the HIRES and HARPS-N spectrographs. Due to the active nature of the host star, a stellar activity model is required to distinguish and isolate the planetary signal in radial velocity data. Whereas previous studies tested parametric stellar activity models, we modeled this system using nonparametric Gaussian process (GP) regression. We produced a GP regression of relevant Kepler photometry. We then use the posterior parameter distribution for our photometric fit as a prior for our simultaneous GP + Keplerian orbit models of the radial velocity datasets. We tested three simple kernel functions for our GP regressions. Based on a Bayesian likelihood analysis, we selected a quasi-periodic kernel model with GP hyperparameters coupled between the two RV datasets, giving a Doppler amplitude of 1.86 $\pm$ 0.25 m s$^{-1}$ and supporting our belief that the correlated noise we are modeling is astrophysical. The corresponding mass of 1.87 $^{+0.27}_{-0.26}$ M$_{\oplus}$ is consistent with that measured in previous studies, and more robust due to our nonparametric signal estimation. Based on our mass and the radius measurement from transit photometry, Kepler-78b has a bulk density of 6.0$^{+1.9}_{-1.4}$ g cm$^{-3}$. We estimate that Kepler-78b is 32$\pm$26% iron using a two-component rock-iron model. This is consistent with an Earth-like composition, with uncertainty spanning Moon-like to Mercury-like compositions.

Techniques like femtocells are widely used to extend service coverage in indoors and other areas that are unreachable for traditional radio access technologies. In this paper, we consider the indoor coverage measurement problem. We formulate this problem into two parts: the sampling and the reconstruction of received signal strength (RSS) field. Traditional methods cannot solve the RSS fluctuation problem efficiently and require a large number of sensor nodes. To this end, we propose a novel indoor coverage measurement scheme to tackle these problems. First, a fractional Fourier transform (FRFT) based method is proposed to mitigate RSS fluctuation during the sampling process. Then, Gaussian process regression (GPR) is used to reduce the number of sensor nodes being deployed. And a new kernel for GPR is designed to better accomplish the RSS reconstruction task. Simulation analysis shows the proposed scheme can achieve greater advantages in terms of accuracy and flexibility compared with other baselines.

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a nonparametric regression method that can be used to predict continuous quantities. Here, we show that the same technique can be applied to a class of phase imaging techniques based on measurements of intensity at multiple propagation distances, i.e. the transport of intensity equation (TIE). In this paper, we demonstrate how to apply GP regression to estimate the first intensity derivative along the direction of propagation and incorporate non-uniform propagation distance sampling. The low-frequency artifacts that often occur in phase recovery using traditional methods can be significantly suppressed by the proposed GP TIE method. The method is shown to be stable with moderate amounts of Gaussian noise. We validate the method experimentally by recovering the phase of human cheek cells in a bright field microscope and show better performance as compared to other TIE reconstruction methods.