Global logistics intermodal network simulation modeling by incremental assignment and corridor development simulations in Myanmar

This study aimed to analyze the impact of trade liberalization between ASEAN and China on ASEAN and China export using the gravity models approach. The liberalization of trade openness is measured by the ratio of the total exports of ASEAN countries and China. The data used are annual panel data consisting of the ten ASEAN member countries and US states from 2010 to 2021. The difference with previous research is the object of research which analyzes specifically related to the free trade agreement carried out between ASEAN member countries and China which is analyzed using the Gravity model. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports. The implication of the study in free trade agreement that ASEAN countries is more focused on the sector of agriculture product, food, textile and some extractive industries. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports

Modeling carbon emission estimation for hinterland-based container intermodal network

•This dissertation assesses investment decisions in container shipping. To understand the current state of the industry, key characteristics and challenges, such as overcapacity, eroding margins due to low freight rates, long investment lead times, and frequent changes in alliance structure are introduced. The nature of the industry motivates the application of real options, hence a real options investment model in oligopolistic competition is presented. An analytic solution in continuous time as well as a dynamic programming solution in discrete time are derived. The model takes into account an endogenous price function, fuel-efficient investment, endogenous lead times, and endogenous price formation in the secondary vessel market. This allows to study the impact of competitive intensity, number of players, volatility, fuel-efficiency, lead time, and variable cost on optimal capacity. An investigation of optimal investment policies shows that strategic action increases firm value and strategic alliances might help alleviate some of the industry’s challenges. Since the container shipping market is characterized by frequent alliance changes, the performance of the real options model in the context of a cooperative shipping game is assessed. Extending the coalition structure value concept it can be shown that, compared with discounted cash flow, the real options trigger performs better, especially in light of high competitive intensity and freight rate volatility while not exhibiting substantial disadvantages in other settings. A further assessment of a number of drivers for alliance instability finds that alliance complexity cost, freight rate volatility, and competitive intensity increase alliance changes. To verify the investment approach, a characterization of the container freight rate is provided with an empirical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. It can be observed that the freight rate exhibits a negative relationship with capacity deployment; hence the oligopoly price function is confirmed. Based on the freight rate characterization, a back testing of the real options investment approach is provided. It shows that if players had applied the presented approach, capacities would have decreased and rates improved. A number of limitations of the real options approach are identified, i.e. substantial impact of volatility expectation, potentially induced cyclicality from trigger approaches, and the timing impact of investment and divestment lead times. The implications of this research are that strategic action in the container shipping industry is worthwhile and understanding the market specifics (such as competitive intensity, volatility, and freight rate characterization) is very important. Container carriers should add a real options approach to their investment toolkit and keep an eye on potential overcapacity. Finally, entering strategic alliances is suggested, but complexity should be avoided.

Optimum trim prediction for container ships based on machine learning

This paper aims the solution of the reroute sequence planning problem for protected traffic flows. This problem arises when a service provider recalculates the path set by a global optimization tool in order to achieve a better resource utilization. In this case a sequence of the one-by-one reconfiguration of the traffic flows from their original paths to the optimized paths has to be found, with the constraint that the link capacities should not be violated at any time during the rerouting process. This optimization problem is related to discrepancy theory and it is NP-complete. It is computationally hard in realworld situations because of the large amount of routers and traffic flows in the network, therefore exact and approximation algorithms have little practical relevance. We present a number of heuristic approaches, which are tested on various network situations. We assume generalized multi-protocol label switching context but the methods can be applied for other types of networks as well. The results show that in most cases these methods are appropriate for calculating the reroute sequence, mainly when the objective of the path optimization is load balancing.

A mathematical programming method for sensitivity analysis of the link-capacitated stochastic user equilibrium model is presented in this article. By the sensitivity matrices, the changes in the network flows can be easily obtained, while some links reach the capacity limits. By link-based stochastic user equilibrium model with link capacity constraints, it is possible to formulate an efficient algorithm for the sensitivity analysis. Two numerical examples are provided for demonstrating the correctness and implementability of the method finally. Since the link capacity is one of the constraints of the model, the method presented here can also be used for the basic model with other constraints.

A proposed practical fuel budget problem aims to determine a group of bunker fuel budget values for a liner container ship over a round-trip voyage under uncertainties caused by severe weather conditions. According to research collaboration with a global container shipping line in Singapore, the proposed problem holds a kernel position in the ship fuel efficiency management programs advocated by container shipping lines because of the downward pressure of soaring bunker prices. The synergetic influence of sailing speed and weather conditions on ship fuel consumption rate was considered when the bunker fuel budget of a ship over a round-trip voyage was estimated. To address the adverse random perturbation of fuel consumption rate under severe weather conditions, state-of-the-art robust optimization techniques were employed, and a robust optimization model for the fuel budget problem was developed. The developed model can be dualized into a mixed-integer linear programming model that may be solved by commercial optimization solvers. However, algorithmic findings in the field of robust optimization provided a polynomial time solution algorithm, and it was retrofitted to accommodate the proposed ship fuel budget problem. The case study of an Asia–Europe service demonstrates the computational performance of the proposed solution algorithm and the competence of the proposed robust optimization model to produce fuel budget values at different levels of conservatism possessed by the fuel efficiency specialists in container shipping lines.

This chapter covers the determinants of transport costs, the price of vessels and freight rates in the tanker market, the dry bulk cargo market and the liner shipping market. It concludes with an analysis of freight rates by region and fleet performance over the past few decades. The price of newbuildings was lower for all vessels types in 2010, reflecting market views that the capacity of the world fleet is sufficient to meet world trade in the shortterm. In the second-hand market, the results were mixed. The larger oil tankers held their value, while smaller tankers and specialized product tankers declined in value. In the dry bulk sector, the price of medium-sized Panamax vessels decreased, while the price of smaller and larger vessels increased. The price for all sizes of second-hand container ships also rose in value during 2010 as trade volumes recovered. Freight rates in the tanker sector performed better than the previous year, rising between 30 and 50 per cent by the end of 2010. Every month for all vessel types was better than the corresponding month for the previous year. However, tanker freight rates in general still remained depressed, compared with the years immediately preceding the 2008 peak. Freight rates in the dry bulk sector performed well for the first half of the year, but the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) lost more than half its value from the end of May 2010 to mid-July 2010. A partial rally occurred in August 2010 before the Index continued its downward trajectory. Between May 2010 and May 2011, the BDI declined by about two thirds. Container freight rates in 2010 witnessed a major transformation brought about by a boost in exports and measures introduced by shipowners to limit vessel oversupply. The result can be seen in the New ConTex Index, which tripled in value from early 2010 to mid-2011.

The article analyses the following issues: I) Basicfactors determining Transport system development;2) Transport system services and their assessment; 3) Goods handling Transport system as a research object. The objective of goods handling Transport system development and improvement is to estabhsh a general goods handlmg Transport system of the country ensuring satisfaction of national needs for high quality Transport service in this field; 4) Models of Transport modes interaction; 5) Determinate models for main Transport network development; 6) Model of development of private freight road Transport.

Data-driven research on the impact of COVID-19 on the global container shipping network

Approaches to empty container repositioning problems in the context of Eurasian intermodal transportation

Purpose This paper aims to propose a technique based on cognitive assessments to quantify identified operational risks from the perspective of container shipping or logistics system administrators. The results derived from the risk quantification could be used to prioritize risks as well as support the decision-making process in risk prevention and mitigation. Design/methodology/approach This paper identified container shipping operational risks (CSORs) from a logistics perspective. A multivariate risk evaluation mechanism by fuzzy rules Bayesian network (FRBN) was established. An improved two-level parameter set based on the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to support the input extraction process. By feeding cognitive assessments into the model, the identified risks are evaluated based on their utility values. An illustration example and a sensitivity analysis were carried out to justify and validate the proposed model. Findings The highest positions in the prioritized list of CSORs in the case study are dominated by risks in the physical flow with the first three are piracy and terrorism, force majeure and port congestion. The results derived from the case study with the satisfaction of all pre-defined axioms proved the feasibility and illustrated the functionality of the proposed risk assessment and prioritization technique. Originality/value Controlling risk is irrefutably a significant issue of container shipping and logistics management because of the inconsistency of risk definitions and the involvement of uncertainties. The proposed risk evaluation mechanism and the identified list of CSORs could be beneficial in system management, decision-making and reliability performance.

Container vessel selection for maritime shipping companies by using an extended version of the Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) with the help of Type-2 neutrosophic fuzzy sets (T2NFN)

Comparative Risk of Stroke Associated with Active Smoking in Chinese and Asian Populations.

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.