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  • https://doi.org/10.55528/18292828-2025.4-23Copy DOI Icon

GLOBAL TRADE PATTERNS AND CONCENTRATION: LEADING COUNTRIES, DOMINANT PRODUCTS AND TRENDS

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Abstract

The study aims to examine the long-term evolution of global merchandise trade, identifying the leading exporting and importing countries, dominant product groups (HS-2 classification), and assessing the degree of concentration and diversification within the global trading system. The analysis also evaluates the effects of major global shocks—including the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the 2015 commodity downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict – on international trade dynamics. The research uses annual data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) TradeMap covering 2005-2024. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and linear regression modeling were employed to detect long-term trade trajectories. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) was applied to measure the concentration of trade flows by country and by product group. Forecasts for 2025-2026 were derived from the estimated trend models to project the future direction of global trade. The results reveal a strong positive trend in both exports and imports, with average annual growth of approximately USD 0.6 trillion. Despite short-term declines during global crises, world trade recovered rapidly each time. In 2024, world imports reached USD 24.1 trillion and exports USD 23.8 trillion, with the top ten countries accounting for about 50% of total trade and the top ten product groups – mainly electronics, machinery, energy, and vehicles – representing two-thirds of trade value. The findings emphasize the importance of enhancing export diversification, reducing dependence on a narrow set of high-tech and energy products, and strengthening supply-chain resilience in the face of geopolitical disruptions. Policymakers should encourage innovation, regional integration, and the development of value-added industries to achieve more balanced and sustainable trade growth.

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