• Home
  • Search
  • Grand Challenges for Predictive Modeling in Small Molecule Drug Discovery
  • https://doi.org/10.26434/chemrxiv.15000615/v1Copy DOI Icon

Grand Challenges for Predictive Modeling in Small Molecule Drug Discovery

  • Mar 4, 2026
  • ChemRxiv
  • Connor W Coley +12 more
Show More
  • Abstract
  • Literature Map
  • Similar Papers
Abstract

We present a set of Grand Challenges for predictive modeling in small molecule drug discovery, with the goal of defining, prioritizing, and quantifying the areas where computation can have transformative impact. Rather than offering another broad survey of methods, this paper articulates specific scientific and technical problems that limit progress today and proposes measurable criteria by which advances can be judged. Our objective is to align researchers, investors, and industry leaders around the challenges that matter most for advancing real drug discovery programs. This work seeks to broaden participation in drug discovery by providing a clear roadmap for contributors from the growing areas of artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, high-performance computing, and quantum computing, where tools are rapidly advancing but are often disconnected from the practical realities of medicinal chemistry and pharmacology. The insights presented here draw on extensive discussions with experienced drug hunters, computational method developers, and thought leaders across biotech, pharma, software, and venture capital, as well as lessons learned from our own drug discovery efforts. While there is substantial enthusiasm (particularly around AI) for revolutionizing drug discovery, this moment demands sharper problem definition. Without clearly articulated challenges and performance metrics, computational innovation risks optimizing for benchmarks rather than for translational impact. We therefore identify Grand Challenges across four domains: Chemistry, Structure, Energy, and Pharmacology. For each domain, we present a common framework: a well-defined challenge, the underlying physical principles, its relevance to drug discovery decision-making, the current state of the field, and quantitative metrics that define progress. By grounding computational ambition in concrete scientific problems, we aim to catalyze sustained, measurable advances rather than episodic waves of enthusiasm.

Similar Papers
  • Research Article
  • Citations202

The importance of sulfur-containing motifs in drug design and discovery

  • May 04, 2022
  • Expert Opinion on Drug Discovery
  • Muhamad Mustafa +1
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

Chemical Biology: Powerful Synergy Between Two Cultures

  • Feb 01, 2019
  • Israel Journal of Chemistry
  • Ashraf Brik +1
  • Research Article
  • Citations36

Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing as the Next Pharma Disruptors.

  • Nov 04, 2021
  • Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.)
  • Tânia Cova +5
  • PDF
  • Research Article
  • Citations39

Innovative Partnerships for Drug Discovery against Neglected Diseases

  • Sep 27, 2011
  • PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
  • Palle H Jakobsen +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations64

ABCD Analysis of Industries Using High-Performance Computing

  • Jun 30, 2023
  • International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT, and Education
  • Shajil Kumar P A +1
  • Single Report
  • Citations3

Basic Energy Sciences Roundtable: Opportunities for Quantum Computing in Chemical and Materials Sciences

  • Nov 01, 2017
  • Joel Moore +32
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

Abstract 6576: Discovery of potent and selective novel small molecule drugs to target estrogen receptor mutants in endocrine-resistant breast cancer

  • Mar 22, 2024
  • Cancer Research
  • Anil Kumar Devakrishnan +4
  • Research Article
  • Citations20

Making Space for Anti-Infective Drug Discovery

  • May 01, 2011
  • Cell Host & Microbe
  • Carl Nathan
  • Research Article
  • Citations2

Fluorescent RNAs: new opportunities for drug discovery.

  • Dec 01, 2025
  • Trends in pharmacological sciences
  • Fangting Zuo +3
  • Research Article
  • Citations11

Digital Alchemy: The Rise of Machine and Deep Learning in Small-Molecule Drug Discovery.

  • Jul 16, 2025
  • International journal of molecular sciences
  • Abdul Manan +3
  • Research Article
  • Citations1

A model approach to accelerated drug discovery

  • Aug 01, 1999
  • Molecular Medicine Today
  • Janet Fricker
  • Research Article
  • Citations6

AI-enabled drug and molecular discovery: computational methods, platforms, and translational horizons

  • Dec 12, 2025
  • Discover Molecules
  • Aditya Pathak +12
  • Research Article
  • Citations65

Getting a Handle on Neuropharmacology by Targeting Receptor-Associated Proteins

  • Dec 01, 2017
  • Neuron
  • Michael P Maher +4
  • Book Chapter
  • Citations1

High Throughput Screening in the Twenty-First Century

  • Jan 01, 2009
  • Jeff W Paslay +2
  • Research Article
  • Citations6

Glossary and tutorial of xenobiotic metabolism terms used during small molecule drug discovery and development (IUPAC Technical Report)

  • Feb 26, 2021
  • Pure and Applied Chemistry
  • Paul Erhardt +19
Cactus Communications logo

Copyright 2026 Cactus Communications. All rights reserved.