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  • https://doi.org/10.1109/acira67680.2025.11334910Copy DOI Icon

High-Precision Prediction of Power Grid Load Factor Based on a Physics Enhanced Graph Neural Network

  • Nov 7, 2025
  • Dinghua Zhang +3 more
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Abstract

We propose a Physics-Enhanced Graph Attention Network (PE-GAT) to mitigate the prediction instability and physical inconsistencies prevalent in power grids with high renewable penetration. This framework orchestrates spatial topology awareness, physical knowledge embedding, and safety constraints within a unified architecture. Specifically, a three-dimensional encoding mechanism synthesizes geographic, electrical, and topological attributes to capture heterogeneous node dependencies.At the physical level, a power transfer distribution factor (PTDF) is embedded in the graph attention structure and constraint functions to ensure that the prediction results conform to power flow laws. At the optimization level, a safety-oriented composite loss function is designed to enhance the model's sensitivity and stability to high-load and overload conditions. Experimental results based on a typical power grid scenario in Guangzhou demonstrate that PE-GAT achieves high-precision prediction performance with an RMSE of 0.01493 and a MAPE of 2.80%. It effectively captures the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of the power grid while maintaining good physical consistency and safety sensitivity. This study provides a reliable and explainable modeling approach for real-time situational awareness, load risk assessment and safe scheduling decisions of smart grids.

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