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  • https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13105Copy DOI Icon

How Drought Influences Forest Soil Organic Carbon

  • Mar 14, 2026
  • Mehdi H Afshar +3 more
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Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a central role in regulating soil fertility, water retention, and quantifying risks of soil degradation (Afshar et al., 2025). While climate variability is increasingly recognized as a major pressure on SOC, large-scale assessments of drought impacts on forest soils remain limited. Recent studies emphasize that drought effects on SOC are highly context dependent, shaped by soil carbon status, climate regime, and interacting environmental controls, calling for flexible modeling frameworks that can capture nonlinear responses (Hassani et al., 2024; Shokri et al., 2025).In this study, we analyze SOC change between 2009 and 2018 across European forest soils using generalized additive models (GAMs) applied to harmonized LUCAS topsoil observations. SOC change is modelled as a nonlinear function of initial SOC, drought characteristics derived from the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), climate, and soil properties.GAM results show that drought severity exerts a significant, nonlinear impact on SOC change (p < 0.001), strongly modulated by initial SOC and climatic parameters. On average, under severe drought conditions, SOC declines by ~32% relative to mild drought conditions. Overall, the results demonstrate that drought impacts on forest SOC are state-dependent and spatially heterogeneous, governed by the combined influence of drought severity, initial carbon stocks, and regional climate conditions.

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