Identifying Secondary Crashes and Their Contributing Factors

A hybrid machine learning model for predicting Real-Time secondary crash likelihood

Real-time estimation of secondary crash likelihood on freeways using high-resolution loop detector data

It is common to find a vehicle left on the shoulder, median, gore area, or on the travel lane for certain period of time. Experience from the state of Tennessee has shown that 78% of the freeway traffic-related incidents are attributable to disabled and abandoned vehicles. It is hypothesized that the longer the vehicle is left unattended within the right of way, the higher the probability of new incidents and secondary crashes. This paper utilized 2004–2010 freeway incident data in Tennessee to evaluate the effect of the length of incident durations caused by disabled and abandoned vehicles. Analysis evaluated the effect of these incidents with respect to roadway location, queue lengths, weather conditions, towing times, lane closure, and the source of incident notification. Temporal factors, including the spectra of the time of the day, the day of the week, and the seasons of the year were evaluated with respect to the number of incidents and incident durations. More disabled and abandoned vehicl...

Objective This study clarified the current status of awareness, knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intentions regarding the Japanese physical activity guidelines (Active Guide) and their relationship with physical activity, sedentary behavior, and the participants' characteristics.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted with 7,000 participants aged 20-69 years registered with an online survey company. Awareness, knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intentions regarding the Active Guide were examined. Awareness was assessed by unprompted and prompted recall. Knowledge was assessed by numerical responses to "the recommended daily activity time (18-64 years/65 years and older)" and "physical activity time to be increased (plus-ten)," respectively. To survey the beliefs and behavioral intentions, we created a 5-point scale for the Active Guide. For physical activity, the amount of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity was calculated from the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective Study (JPHC study) questionnaire. Physical activity level was calculated from the standard specific medical checkup and health guidance questionnaire. For sedentary behavior, the Japanese version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was used. The dependent variables were awareness, knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intentions. The independent variables were physical activity, sedentary behavior, and the participants' characteristics (gender, age, body mass index, marital status, educational background, work status, and household income). After descriptive statistics were measured, a logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the associations.Results Unprompted and prompted recall of the Active Guide were 1.7% and 5.3-13.4%, respectively. Those with knowledge of it scored 37.2%, 7.0%, 24.8%, and 2.6% for recommended daily activity time (18-64 years), daily physical activity time (65 years and older), plus-ten, and all three items answered correctly, respectively. The median (interquartile range) score of the beliefs was 21 (16-25) points (32-point scale). Those with behavioral intentions scored 51.4% for "recommended daily activity" and 66.9% for "plus-ten." Logistic regression analysis showed that awareness, knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intentions were positively associated with moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity and level. The results were inconsistent for sedentary behavior. Although personal characteristics differed based on assessment item, they were mainly associated with age, education level, employment, and household income.Conclusions This study revealed that the number of people who had awareness and knowledge of the Active Guide remained low. Those with awareness, knowledge, beliefs, and behavioral intentions were more physically active. However, the results for sedentary behavior were not consistent. Hence, further research is required to understand this tendency. A future longitudinal study is also required.

This study aims to: 1) analyze the effect of age, education level, number of children, husband's support, role of family planning officers, and public perception simultaneously on the decision of fertile age couples (PUS) in the use of contraceptives in Badung Regency. 2) analyze the effect of age, education level, number of children, husband's support, role of family planning officers, and partial public perception of the decision of fertile age couples (PUS) in the use of contraceptives in Badung Regency. The research population was all couples of childbearing age (PUS) in Badung Regency, with a total sample of 156 respondents determined by the slovin method. The research method used is observation, structured interviews, and in-depth interviews. The data analysis techniques used were descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and logistic regression analysis. The results of the study found that age, education level, number of children, husband's support, role of family planning officers, and public perception simultaneously had a significant effect on the use of contraceptives in Badung Regency. Then, age, number of children, husband's support, and public perception partially have a positive and significant effect on the use of contraceptives, while the level of education and the role of family planning officers partially have no significant effect on the use of contraceptives.

Peer-to-peer lending as an innovation of financial services is a genuine opportunity for SMEs who are experiencing difficulties in accessing loans to formal financial institutions. The asymmetric information issue on peer-to-peer lending activity can lead to a credit risk that may cause a default loan. This research is a kind of associative research with the form of causal relationship. the purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence the success of SMEs loans on Peer to peer lending activities. Samples obtained from the LendingClub platform using purposive sampling method. Analysis In this study using logistic regression analysis. Based on logistic regression analysis, it is found that loan amount, loan term, debt-to- income ratio, delinquency in last 2 year, inquiries in the last 6 month, and revolving credit utilization have a significant negative effect on the success of the loan. while annual income is not significant effect on the success of the loan.

Study question When is the optimal timing of day 6 (D6) blastocyst transfer between the 6thday (P6)and the 7th(P7) day of progesterone administration in artificially prepared frozen-thawed embryo transfer(FET) cycle Summary answer When transferring D6 blastocysts in artificially prepared FET cycles, live birth rate tended to be higher in P6 group than in P7 group. What is known already Blastocyst transfer in FET cycles has increased due to several reasons including convenience for optimization of endometrial synchronization, improvement of laboratory techniques and preimplantation genetic testing. Meanwhile, D6 blastocyst which cryopreserved on day 6 after being developed to the full blastocyst stage, presented lower pregnancy outcomes in FET cycle than D5 blastocysts. However, there have been few studies on the optimal duration of progesterone administration when transferring D6 blastocysts. Study design, size, duration This was a retrospective cohort study including patients who underwent frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer in artificially prepared cycles from January 2000 to May 2020. Patients with D6 blastocyst transfer on the 6th day of progesterone administration were included in D6-P6 group, and patients with D6 blastocyst transfer on the 7th day of progesterone administration were included in D6-P7 group. Participants/materials, setting, methods Increasing dose of estradiol valerate was administered from the 3rd day of menstruation: 4 mg/day for the first four days, 6 mg/day for next four days, and then 8 mg/day until the confirmation of pregnancy. Progesterone was administered from the 14th day of menstruation if the endometrial thickness reached ≥7 mm. The independent t-test or Mann-Whitney test, chi-square test, and logistic regression analysis were performed. Main results and the role of chance A total of 50 patients were included, and 13 patients underwent FET on P6 and 37 patients underwent FET on P7. Live birth rate was comparable between the P6 group and the P7 group (18.9% vs. 15.4%, p = 0.775). Live birth rate was higher in the D6-P6 group than in the D6-P7 group after adjusting for age, AMH, endometrial thickness on the starting day of progesterone administration and good embryo rate transferred with statistical significance (OR: 6.716, p = 0.005). Limitations, reasons for caution Limitations of the present study is the retrospective design and the small sample size. Caution is needed in extrapolating results of this study because only intramural and vaginal progesterone supplementations were included in this study. Wider implications of the findings: Even if the duration of blastocyst formation was delayed, frozen-thawed D6 blastocyst may need to be considered for on P6 rather than P7. The difference of live birth rate is not statistically significant. This study should be acknowledged for the underestimation of the difference because of the small sample size. Trial registration number Not applicable

BackgroundPre-hospital emergency care requires proper categorization of emergency calls and assessment of emergency priority levels by the medical dispatchers. We investigated predictors for emergency call categorization as “unclear problem” in contrast to “symptom-specific” categories and the effect of categorization on mortality.MethodsRegister-based study in a 2-year period based on emergency call data from the emergency medical dispatch center in Copenhagen combined with nationwide register data. Logistic regression analysis (N = 78,040 individuals) was used for identification of predictors of emergency call categorization as “unclear problem”. Poisson regression analysis (N = 97,293 calls) was used for examining the effect of categorization as “unclear problem” on mortality.Results“Unclear problem” was the registered category in 18% of calls. Significant predictors for “unclear problem” categorization were: age (odds ratio (OR) 1.34 for age group 76+ versus 18–30 years), ethnicity (OR 1.27 for non-Danish vs. Danish), day of week (OR 0.92 for weekend vs. weekday), and time of day (OR 0.79 for night vs. day). Emergency call categorization had no effect on mortality for emergency priority level A calls, incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90–1.09). For emergency priority level B calls, an association was observed, IRR 1.26 (95% CI 1.18–1.36).DiscussionsThe results shed light on the complexity of emergency call handling, but also implicate a need for further improvement. Educational interventions at the dispatch centers may improve the call handling, but also the underlying supportive tools are modifiable. The higher mortality rate for patients with emergency priority level B calls with “unclear problem categorization” could imply lowering the threshold for dispatching a high level ambulance response when the call is considered unclear. On the other hand a “benefit of the doubt” approach could hinder the adequate response to other patients in need for an ambulance as there is an increasing demand and limited resources for ambulance services.ConclusionsAge, ethnicity, day of week and time of day were significant predictors of emergency call categorization as “unclear problem”. “Unclear problem” categorization was not associated with mortality for emergency priority level A calls, but a higher mortality was observed for emergency priority level B calls.

We evaluated the effect of time of day on cardiac reactivity (CR) during the performance of two vigilance tasks (auditory and visual reaction time) and a working memory task. Heart rate was measured hourly (08:00-21:00 h) at rest and during performance tasks in 20 men and 20 women. Overall, the vigilance and memory tasks decreased and increased heart rate, respectively, and in the vigilance tasks this effect was dependent on both time of day and sensory modality. The critical periods, those of greater stress, were the earliest and latest hours of the day and after lunch. Time of day also reversed the sign of CR (from deceleration to acceleration) in the visual vigilance task. We conclude that time of day has a significant effect on CR and that studies should take this factor into account. Authors should refrain from generalizing from results recorded at a single time of day.

Objective To investigate the risk factors and prognosis of blood stream infection in patients of intensive care unit (ICU). Methods Clinical data of all patients with culture-positive sepsis were collected from all ICUs of Guangdong General Hospital from October 12th, 2012 to December 1st, 2014 for retrospective study. Physiological characteristics and laboratory data were compared between patients with blood culture-positive sepsis group and patients without sepsis of control group. Logistic regression analysis was made to identify the risk factors for blood stream infection. Patients with blood culture-positive sepsis group were further divided into survivor and non-survivor groups according to the clinical outcomes. Physiological and laboratory data were compared between two groups. Logistic regression analysis was also performed to identify the risk factors for mortality. Results There were 299 patients with positive blood culture sepsis admitted in the ICUs in two years. Of them, 250 patients infected with Gram positive cocci including staphylococcus haemolyticus, staphylococcus epidermidis, staphylococcus capitis and staphylococcusaureus accounting for the majority. There were 174 patients infected with Gram negative bacilli including acinetobacter baumannii, Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniaesubsp. pneumoniae accounting for the majority. A univariate analysis demonstrated that there were significant differences in hypertension (P =0.001) , diabetes (P=0.01) , coronary heart diseases and heart failure (P=0.000) , chronic renal insufficiency (P=0.000) , prolonged mechanical ventilation (P=0.000) , pre-admission intravenous administration of antibiotics (P=0.000) , and hypoalbuminemia (P=0.008) between culture positive group and control group. A logistic regression analysis demonstrated that diabetes [ OR=2.158, 95% CI(1.230, 3.787) , P=0.007] , chronic renal insufficiency [ OR=13.410, 95% CI (1.715, 104.879) , P=0.013] , pre-admission intravenous administration of antibiotics [ OR=8.375, 95% CI (5.267, 13.317) , P=0.000] were independent risk factors for bloodstream infections in ICU. In patients with positive blood culture, the non-survivor group had patients with higher advance of old age, higher rate of hypertension, coronary heart diseases or congestive heart failure, tumor and chronic renal insufficiency, prolonged mechanical ventilation and higher incidence of surgery and pre-admission intravenous administration of antibiotics compared with the survivor group. The advance of old age [ OR=1.023, 95% CI (1.008-1.037) , P=0.002] , prolonged mechanical ventilation [ OR=1.055, 95% CI (1.024, 1.088) , P=0.000] and hypoalbuminemia [ OR=0.933, 95% CI (0.898, 0.971) , P=0.001] were independently associated with mortality of bloodstream infection in ICU. Conclusions Diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and pre-admission intravenous administration of antibiotics were associated with the development of blood stream infection in ICU. The advance of old age, prolonged mechanical ventilation and hypoalbuminemia were independent risk factors for mortality in patients with culture-positive sepsis in ICU. Key words: Descriptive retrospective study; Logistic regression analysis; Blood stream infection; Culture-positive sepsis; Intensive care unit; Risk factor; Prognosis; Mortality

Abstract
 The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of tax minimization, bonus mechanisms, foreign ownership, exchange rates, and audit quality on transfer pricing in manufacturing companies in Indonesia. The population of this research was all manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2017 to 2019. By using the purposive sampling method, 81 companies were selected as the research sample. Based on logistic regression analysis, it was proven that the tax minimization variable has a significant positive effect on transfer pricing decisions. Likewise, the audit quality variable is proven to have a significant negative effect on transfer pricing decisions in manufacturing companies in Indonesia. Meanwhile, the bonus mechanism, foreign ownership, and exchange rate variables were not proven to have a significant effect on the company's transfer pricing decision. These results indicated that the greater the tax minimization carried out by the company and the lower the audit quality will increase the probability of the company in conducting transfer pricing, and vice versa. The results of this study have implications for encouraging the government to make regulations that can prevent transfer pricing practices between companies that have a special relationship that might harm the government from tax revenue.
 Keywords: bonus mechanism; foreign ownership; tax minimization; transfer pricing

Objective: To investigate the risk factors of diabetic nephropathy (DN) in primary type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients and to quantitatively analyze the risk of DN by nomogram modeling. Methods: A total of 1 588 primary T2DM patients from 17 townships and streets in Zhejiang Province were enrolled from June 2018 to August 2018 in this cross-sectional study, with an average age of (56.8±10.1) years (50.06% male) and a mean disease duration of 9 years. The clinical data, biochemical test results, and fundus photographs of all T2DM patients were collected, and logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors of DN. Then, a nomogram model was used to quantitatively analyze the risk of DN. Results: DN occurred in 27.71% (440/1 588 cases) primary type 2 diabetes patients. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (OR=1.159, 95%CI 1.039-1.292), systolic blood pressure (OR=1.041, 95%CI 1.031-1.051), serum creatinine (Scr) (OR=1.011, 95%CI 1.004-1.017), serum globulin (GLOB) (OR=1.072, 95%CI 1.039-1.105), diabetic retinopathy (DR) (OR=1.463, 95%CI 1.073-1.996), education level of more than junior high school (OR=2.018, 95%CI 1.466-2.777), and moderate-intensity exercise (OR=0.751, 95%CI 0.586-0.961) were influencing factors of DN. Nomogram model analysis showed that the total score of each factor of DN ranged from 64-138 points, and the corresponding risk rate ranged from 0.1-0.9. The nomogram model also predicted a C-index value of 0.753 (95%CI 0.726-0.781) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of DN of 0.753. Internal verification of the C-index reached 0.738. The model displayed medium predictive power and could be applied in clinical practice. Conclusions: HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, Scr, GLOB, DR, and more than a junior high school education are independent risk factors of DN. Nomogram modeling can more intuitively evaluate the risk of DN in primary T2DM patients.

Reconstructing the Disease Burden of Ancient Egypt: Associations Between Selected Socio-Demographic Parameters and Paleopathological Findings in the Remains of 1,418 Ancient Egyptians

Treatment Needs and Completion of Community-Based Aftercare Among Substance-Abusing Women Offenders

Understanding and predicting the duration or “return-to-normal” time of traffic incidents is important for system-level management and optimization of road transportation networks. Increasing real-time availability of multiple data sources characterizing the state of urban traffic networks, together with advances in machine learning offer the opportunity for new and improved approaches to this problem that go beyond static statistical analyses of incident duration. In this paper we consider two such improvements: dynamic update of incident duration predictions as new information about incidents becomes available and automated interpretation of the factors responsible for these predictions. For our use case, we take one year of incident data and traffic state time-series data from the M25 motorway in London. We use it to train models that predict the probability distribution of incident durations, utilizing both time-invariant and time-varying features of the data. The latter allow predictions to be updated as an incident progresses, and more information becomes available. For dynamic predictions, time-series features are fed into the Match-Net algorithm, a temporal convolutional hitting-time network, recently developed for dynamical survival analysis in clinical applications. The predictions are benchmarked against static regression models for survival analysis and against an established dynamic technique known as landmarking and found to perform favourably by several standard comparison measures. To provide interpretability, we utilize the concept of Shapley values recently developed in the domain of interpretable artificial intelligence to rank the features most relevant to the model predictions at different time horizons. For example, the time of day is always a significantly influential time-invariant feature, whereas the time-series features strongly influence predictions at 5 and 60-min horizons. Although we focus here on traffic incidents, the methodology we describe can be applied to many survival analysis problems where time-series data is to be combined with time-invariant features.