IFC

The fluctuation and uncertainty of wind power generation bring severe challenges to secure and economic operation of power systems. Because wind power forecasting error is unavoidable, probabilistic forecasting becomes critical to accurately quantifying the uncertainty involved in traditional point forecasts of wind power and to providing meaningful information to conduct risk management in power system operation. This paper proposes a novel direct quantile regression approach to efficiently generate nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation combining extreme learning machine and quantile regression. Quantiles with different proportions can be directly produced via an innovatively formulated linear programming optimization model, without dependency on point forecasts. Multistep probabilistic forecasting of 10-min wind power is newly carried out based on real wind farm data from Bornholm Island in Denmark. The superiority of the proposed approach is verified through comparisons with other well-established benchmarks. The proposed approach forms a new artificial neural network-based nonparametric forecasting framework for wind power with high efficiency, reliability, and flexibility, which can be beneficial to various decision-making activities in power systems.

Spatial correlation learning based on graph neural network for medium-term wind power forecasting

The rapid growth of wind generation is introducing additional variability and uncertainty into power system operations and planning. These inherent characteristics of wind power have both technical and commercial implications for efficient planning and operation of power systems. As the penetration of wind power increases, the importance of accurate forecasting of this variable generation source over a number of time frames becomes more important. In this paper, the state-of-the-art wind power forecast technologies and developed commercial forecasting software have been investigated. Furthermore, the contribution of this paper is to design an industrial tool for wind power forecasting, which can be utilized to train forecasting models, predict wind power, extract proper historical data, compute forecasting residuals, accelerate the forecasting speed with the modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, and executing combination forecasts with Genetic Algorithm method.

A contrastive learning-based framework for wind power forecast

An accurate forecast of wind power plays an increasingly important role in economic dispatch and power system operations. Nevertheless, the randomness, intermittence, and volatility of wind power pose great challenges in power system balance. To improve the forecasting accuracy of wind power, a multi-scale fusing deep learning method is proposed to forecast short-term wind power for multiple wind turbine generators in a wind farm. The inherent spatio-temporal characteristics are studied by dividing the time scale into a small-scale nearby part and a large-scale historical part. The fine-grained dynamic characteristics in the small-scale nearby part are extracted using stacked three-dimensional convolutional neural networks (3D-CNN), and the steady-state characteristics in the large-scale historical part are extracted using Spatio-Temporal Long Short-Term Memory (ST-LSTM) units. Then, wind power for multiple wind turbine generators can be forecasted by fusing the two deep learning channels. An actually collected wind power dataset is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, which is exported from 33 wind turbine generators in a wind farm located in a northwestern province of China. The experimental results show that the proposed wind power forecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy effectively when compared with the state-of-the-art wind power forecasting methods.

An improved residual-based convolutional neural network for very short-term wind power forecasting

In order to alleviate the serious pollution problems caused by traditional thermal power generation, it is an inevitable trend to incorporate clean and renewable energy sources such as wind power into power system dispatching. However, the unpredictability and volatility of wind power posed enormous challenges for the stable operation of power systems. Therefore, it is a popular research topic to improve the traditional scheduling strategy and maintain the stable economic operation of the power system. This paper studied the joint optimization scheduling problem of power system with wind power, hydropower and thermal power, and discussed the effect of hydropower on system scheduling with different adjustment capabilities.

Guest Editorial: Situational awareness of integrated energy systems

This study addresses the critical role of wind power forecasting in ensuring stable and reliable power system operations. Wind power forecasting is critical for the efficient operation of plants, time scheduling, and the balancing of power generation with grid integration systems. Due to its dependency on dynamic climatic conditions and associated factors, accurate wind power forecasting is challenging. The research delves into various aspects, including input data, input selection techniques, data pre-processing, and forecasting methods, with the aim of motivating researchers to design highly efficient online/offline models on weather-based data. The overarching goal is to enhance the reliability and stability of power systems while optimizing energy resource utilization. The analysis reveals that hybrid models offer more accurate results, highlighting their significance in the current era. This study investigates different Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) models from existing literature, focusing on input variables, time horizons, climatic conditions, pre-processing techniques, and sample sizes that affect model accuracy. It covers statistical models like ARMA and ARIMA, along with AI techniques including Deep Learning (DL), Machine Learning (ML), and neural networks, to estimate wind power.

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Wind power forecasting with high accuracy and stability concretely contributes to efficient scheduling and risk management of wind power systems. However, current studies remain limited due to these two shortcomings: 1) overemphasizing model combination strategy and data preprocessing, thus ignoring the improvement of the model's internal computing mechanism; and 2) much attention was paid to the single-stage attention mechanism, but little is known about dual-stage attention (DSA) mechanism. In this article, we propose a wind power forecasting system (WPFSAD), especially attaching importance to the improvement of forecasting precision and stability using a DSA-based mechanism. Specifically, the features of the input and hidden layers are adaptively and dynamically extracted in-depth. Wind power datasets from three wind farms are used to carry out simulation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of the WPFSAD. The study findings confirm the total supremacy of the WPFSAD in forecasting precision and stability, convergence, and robustness over its benchmarks.

The integration of ICT into power systems has increased the interdependencies between the two systems. The operation of power system depends on several ICT-enabled grid services which manifest the interdependencies. ENTSO-E system state classification is a tool that is widely used by operators to determine the current operational state of the power system. However, it does not adequately describe the impact of ICT disturbances on the operation of the power system. Despite their interconnections, the operational states of both systems have been described separately so far. This paper bridges the well-established ENTSO-E systems state classification with an ICT system state classification, forming a new model considering the state classification of the ICT-enabled grid services. The model is developed by first identifying the ICT-enabled services, remedial actions and the respective performance requirements that are required by the power system. Then the states of these services are specified based on the supporting ICT system. The resulting joint state description shows how performance degradation of ICT-enabled services (introduced by disturbances) can affect the operation of the interconnected power system. Two case studies of such ICT-enabled services, namely state estimation and on-load tap changer control, are investigated in terms of how their operational states affect the states of the power system. A third case study highlights the interdependencies that exist between the services. These case studies demonstrate the interdependencies that exist between power and ICT systems in modern cyber-physical energy systems, thus highlighting the usage of a unified system state description.

An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events

High-level wind power integration can dramatically affect a power system's dynamic performance and introduce significant uncertainties to system's operation. This paper proposes a robust dispatch method to optimize the power system's operation state while sustaining its transient stability with highly variable and stochastic wind power generation. The problem is first modeled as an augmented optimal power flow model with uncertain variables and differential-algebraic equations. Then, the stability constraints are converted to approximately-equivalent algebraic equations based on one-machine-infinite-bus equivalence technique and trajectory sensitivity analysis. Next, the uncertain wind power generation is represented by a small number of strategically selected testing scenarios. Finally, a decomposition-based computation strategy is developed to divide the original model into a master problem and a series of slave problems which are solved iteratively. Using industry-grade system dynamic models and simulation software, the proposed method is tested on the New England 39-bus system and Nordic32 system, showing high performance on economic optimality, stability robustness, and computational efficiency.

The amount of energy that has to be delivered for the following day is currently predicted by power system operators using day-ahead load forecasts. With the use of this forecast, generation resources can be committed a day in advance, some of them may require several hours’ notice to be ready to produce power the following day. In order to determine how much wind power will be available for each hour of the following day, power systems with large penetrations of wind generation rely on day-ahead predictions. The main objective of this study is to improve the day-ahead forecasting of wind power by improving the forecasting method using machine learning. A hybrid approach, which combines a mode decomposition method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), with Support Vector Regression (SVR), is used. The results suggest that using Support Vector Regression together with the hybrid method, which includes the Empirical Mode Decomposition to predictions can improve the accuracy of predictions. Higher accuracy forecasting of wind power is expected to improve the planning of dispatchable energy generation and pricing for the day-ahead power market.