Improved Ensemble Learning Model by Swarm Intelligence for Mobile Subscribers’ Churn Prediction

The Telecommunications (telecom) Industry is saturated and marketing strategies are focusing on customer retention and churn prevention. Churning is when a customer stops using a company’s service thereby opting for the next available service provider. This churn threat has led to various Customer Churn Prediction (CCP) studies and many models have been developed to predict possible churn cases for timely retention strategies. This review looks at the existing models in literature, using 30 selected CCP studies particularly from 2014 to 2017. Data preparation methods and churn prediction challenges have also been explored. This study reveals that Support Vector Machines, Naïve Bayes, Decision Trees and Neural Networks are the mostly used CCP techniques. Feature selection is the mostly used data preparation method followed by Normalization and Noise removal. Undersampling is the mostly preferred technique for handling telecom data class imbalances. Imbalanced, large and high dimensional datasets are the key challenges in telecom churn prediction. The issue of large telecom datasets is handled by use of new big data technologies such as Hadoop, Hbase and NoSQL (Not only Structured Query Language) though their adoption is still at a low rate.

Customer Churn Prediction is an increasingly pressing issue in today's ever-competitive commercial arena. Although there are several researches in churn prediction, but the accuracy rate, which is very important to business, is not high enough. Recently, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), based on statistical learning theory, are gaining applications in the areas of data mining, machine learning, computer vision and pattern recognition because of high accuracy and good generalization capability. But there has no report about using SVM to Customer Churn Prediction. According to churn data set characteristic, the number of negative examples is very small, we introduce an improved one-class SVM. And we have tested our method on the wireless industry customer churn data set. Our method has been shown to perform very well compared with other traditional methods, ANN, Decision Tree, and Naive Bays.

Customer churn prediction has been used widely in various kind of domain especially subscription-basis industries. With the rapid growth of telecommunication industry over the last decade, this industry not only focuses on providing numerous products, but also satisfying the customers as it is one of the key solutions to remain competitive. This research proposed MultiLayer Perceptron Method for churn prediction. The evaluation is compared with three classifiers which includes are Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes and Decision Tree in term of several aspects. In preprocessing phase, we employed Principal Component Analysis and normalization to find the correlation among all the variables. For the postprocessing, InfoGainAttribute is used to identify the highest factor attribute that leads to customer retention. It is found that MultiLayer Perceptron outperforms other classifiers and international plan plays important role to retain customer from leaving organization.

Due to the large number of factors in churn prediction, it is challenging to choose and provide a model to do churn prediction and find the most important factors to deal with. In this paper, multiple machine learning methods will be combined to be compared to strengthen the validity of prediction. More specifically, there are four ways listed in this paper, which are Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Support Vector Machine, K-means, and Random forest. The data selected from Kaggle will be the datasets in this paper to be analyzed. The data is preprocessed by turning figures into numbers so that it can be analyzed by mathematics way like polynomial or linear process. In addition, the important factors in telecom churn are also included through machine learning. The score of different kinds of machine learning will be given to choosing the best model. Experimental results indicate that Support Vector Machine with linear kernel is the best model, and the most important factors are contract and tenure.

In all customer based industries, customer churn is considered as one of the most important and challenging concerns since it can lead to a serious profit loss. Therefore, developing accurate churn prediction models can significantly help Customer Relationship Management in planning effective retention campaigns and consequently helps in maximizing the profit of the service provider. In this paper, we propose the use of an Echo State Network (ESN) with a Support Vector Machine (SVM) training algorithm for predicting customer churn in telecommunication companies. The proposed approach is trained and tested based on two datasets: the first is a popular online available dataset while the second is obtained from a local service provider. Experiment results show that ESN with SVM readout outperform other popular machine learning models used in the literature for the same customer churn prediction problems.

Child mortality is a big problem around the world, especially in low- and middle-income nations where there are big differences in health care and social conditions. This investigation seeks to create a predictive model for child mortality and pinpoint the key factors that significantly contribute to it, employing machine learning (ML) methodologies. The dataset includes various features such as parental age, maternal education, birth weight, wealth index, and access to healthcare services. Thirteen machine learning classifiers were used, categorized into four model groups: Traditional Models (Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Naive Bayes), Tree-Based Models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extra Trees), Boosting Models (AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost), and Ensemble Learning Models (Soft Voting, Hard Voting, Stacking). The efficacy of each model was assessed using classification metrics, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-Score within a 10-fold cross-validation framework to guarantee robustness. Results indicate that ensemble models, particularly AdaBoost, achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with perfect scores across all metrics (1.00). XGBoost and Stacking also demonstrated strong and consistent performance. The findings indicate that ensemble learning methods are effective in predicting child mortality and can assist policymakers and healthcare planners in identifying high-risk populations and implementing targeted interventions to reduce child mortality.

Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network

Customer churn is a critical concern for the telecommunication industry. Understanding and predicting customer churn can lead to more effective retention strategies and an increase in profitability. Predicting customer churn allows telecommunication companies to identify potentially dissatisfied customers early on and take proactive measures to retain them. Due to a large client base, the telecom industry generates a large volume of data on a daily basis. Decision makers and business analysts stressed that acquiring new customers is more expensive than retaining existing ones. Business analysts and customer relationship management (CRM) analysts must understand the reasons for customer churn as well as behaviour patterns from existing churn data. This paper proposes a churn prediction model that uses classication and clustering techniques to identify churn customers and provides the factors that contribute to customer churning in the telecom sector. The results presented shows that XBoost and Random Forest achieved higher prediction accuracy when compared to K- Nearest Neighbours, Support Vector Machines and Decision Trees in terms of accuracy, precision, F1-Score and recall.

Introduction: The Churn means Attrition. In the world of competition and customer needs, the superior quality service, to predict customer churn, has become a pressing issue for the HRMS Vendors or service providers. Machine Learning is capable to solve this challenging problem. The customer churn can be predicted, and proactively, HRMS vendors can apply a strategy to retain customers and manage the customer relationship. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to meticulously analyse and summarize the previous studies conducted for customer churn prediction. Furthermore, this paper will serve as a valuable resource for future research in the context of HRMS vendors or service providers. Methods: This paper focuses on machine learning algorithms like Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting, Neural Network, etc. The paper highlights the accuracy of the outperformed models. This paper includes the previous studies between 2021 and 2025. In total, 30 papers were reviewed meticulously. To provide more clarity, all the previous studies are summarized in a table format. The paper was searched on Google with the keywords ‘Customer Churn’ AND ‘Machine Learning’. The Duplicates were removed, and the previous studies were analyzed. Results: The findings showcase that various machine learning models like RF, DT, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting are applied to predict churn. Furthermore, by this analysis it is clearly stated that hybrid or ensemble models work best for customer churn model prediction. This study guides on selecting the best model as per the relevant industry. Conclusions: This comprehensive survey has meticulously analysed the implementation of machine learning algorithms to predict customer churn and highlighted its importance to fully transform the business to build client retention strategies. In this paper, different machine models are examined, and for each previous study, the machine learning models used & their results are discussed.

Improving the diagnosis and prediction of customer churn: A heterogeneous hazard modeling approach

This thesis proposes customer churn prediction model for a Software-as-a-Service inventory management company in Thailand. Software-as-a-Service is the fast growing and high market values industry as a new emerging online business. Customer churn is a critical measure for this business. Thus, this thesis focuses on seeking a customer churn prediction model specified for a Software-as-a-Service inventory management company in Thailand which is facing a high churn rate issue. This thesis executes the prediction models with four machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree and random forest. The results show that the optimized decision tree model is capable to outperform other classification models toward recall scorer with validated testing scores of 94.4% of recall and 88.2% of F1-score. Moreover, feature importance scores can highlight useful insights of case-study that business metrics are significantly related to churn behavior. As a result, this paper is beneficial to the case-study company to help indicate real churn customer correctly and enhance the effectiveness in making executive decision and marketing campaign.

Customer turnover is a crucial issue in banking since maintained profitability depends on keeping clients. This work aims to categorize consumer turnover in banks by using a new ensemble approach combining many machine learning methods, hence enhancing churn prediction models. Using a comprehensive dataset including demographic, financial, and behavioral data—such as credit score, account balance, tenure, and activity levels—the study employs the goal variable revealing if a customer has left the bank. The study starts with univariate, bivariate, and multivariate feature exploration and subsequently uses the Interquartile Range (IQR) approach to identify outliers thereby improving the data quality. Five models—K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Classifier, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and XGBoost—a Voting Classifier ensemble—are used to estimate project churn. Building upon all the strengths of each model, this approach improves the prediction of classification and provides a balanced and highly robust classification system. The applied approaches are K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Random Forest, Decision Tree, and XGBoost within a Voting Classifier configuration. The performance of the Voting Classifier without SMOTE yields the following results: Accuracy: 0.87, precision: 0.87, recall: 0.80, and F1-Score: 0.87. The proposed model that extend the base model using SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique), yields a higher prediction accuracy of 0.90, precision of 0.90, recall of 0.90 and F1-Score of 0.90. This enhancement is proving the efficiency of SMOTE to handle the class imbalance problem in order to render the churn prediction more balanced and reliable system. The proposed approach assures a reliable solution to the strategies to retain the customers in the banking organisations.

In this paper, we investigated the customer churn prediction problem in the Internet funds industry. We designed a novel feature embedded convolutional neural networks (FE-CNN) method that can automatically learn features from both the dynamic customer behavioral data and static customer demographic data and can utilize the advantage of convolutional neural networks to automatically learn features that capture the structured information. Our results show that our FE-CNN model outperforms the other traditional machine learning models with hand-crafted features, such as logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF) and neural networks (NN) in terms of accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and top-decile lift. Furthermore, we found that after adding the demographic data feature to the basic CNN model, the performance of the FE-CNN model improved. Overall, we found that the FE-CNN is the most powerful way to solve the problem of customer churn prediction in the Internet funds industry. Our FE-CNN method can also be applied to other fields that have both dynamic data and static data.

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Customer churn is one of the most critical issues faced by thetelecommunications industry. In the telecommunications industry, it is more expensive to acquire a new customer as compared to retaining the current one. Hence, customer churn prediction is currently the main mechanism employed by the industry in order to prevent customers from churning. The objective of churn prediction is to identify customers that are going to leave the telecommunications service provider in advance. Customer churn prediction would allow the telecommunications service provider to plan their customer retention strategy. The high volume of data generated by the industry, with the help of data mining techniques implementation, becomes the main asset for predicting customer churn. Due to this reason, recent literature of different data mining techniques and most popular data mining algorithms for customer churn prediction are reviewed in this paper. Additionally, recent literature on newly developed algorithms based on the popular algorithms are also reviewed.