Improved estimation in a non-Gaussian parametric regression

Adaptive signal processing algorithms are often used in order to track an unknown time-varying parameter vector. This work develops an upper bound on the mean of the norm-squared error between the unknown parameter vector being tracked and the value obtained by the algorithm. The results require very mild covariance decay rate conditions on the training data and a bounded algorithm. The upper bound illustrates the relationship between the algorithm step size and the maximum rate of variation in the parameter vector being tracked.

This paper discusses the problem of estimation for two classes of nonlinear models, namely random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models. For the RCA model, first assuming that the nuisance parameters are known we construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's asymptotically optimal estimating function. Then, using the conditional least squares (CLS) estimator given by Tjostheim (1986, Stochastic Process. Appl., 21, 251–273) and classical moment estimators for the nuisance parameters, we propose an estimated version of this estimator. These results are extended to the case of vector parameter. Next, we turn to discuss the problem of estimating the ARCH model with unknown parameter vector. We construct an estimator for parameters of interest based on Godambe's optimal estimator allowing that a part of the estimator depends on unknown parameters. Then, substituting the CLS estimators for the unknown parameters, the estimated version is proposed. Comparisons between the CLS and estimated optimal estimator of the RCA model and between the CLS and estimated version of the ARCH model are given via simulation studies.

The present chapter deals with the study of an important but least known case in the theory of parametric estimation of controlled MS, the case when the vector of unknown system parameters, or that of unknown perturbations affecting the control object, is an unknown (uncontrollable, nonmeasurable) vector function of time. Certain models of solving the problems of adaptive stabilization and optimization under parametric drift conditions, based on utilizing the formalism of Lyapunov functions, were given in earlier researches under a variety of restrictions, for example on the information about the drift model and the rate of change of the parameters. The dominant difficulties that occur in these problems of forming convergent estimation algorithms, concern the proof of the fact that the Lyapunov function monotonically decreases on the trajectories of the controlled process.

In this paper we revisit the so-called non-stationary regression models for repeated categorical/multinomial data collected from a large number of independent individuals. The main objective of the study is to obtain consistent and efficient regression estimates after taking the correlations of the repeated multinomial data into account. The existing (1) ‘working’ odds ratios based GEE (generalized estimating equations) approach has both consistency and efficiency drawbacks. Specifically, the GEE-based regression estimates can be inconsistent which is a serious limitation. Some other existing studies use a MDL (multinomial dynamic logits) model among the repeated responses. As far as the estimation of the regression effects and dynamic dependence (i.e., correlation) parameters is concerned, they use either (2) a marginal or (3) a joint likelihood approach. In the marginal approach, the regression parameters are estimated for known correlation parameters by solving their respective marginal likelihood estimating equations, and similarly the correlation parameters are estimated by solving their likelihood equations for known regression estimates. Thus, this marginal approach is an iterative approach which may not provide quick convergence. In the joint likelihood approach, the regression and correlation parameters are estimated simultaneously by searching the maximum value of the likelihood function with regard to these parameters together. This approach may encounter computational drawback, specially when the number of correlation parameters gets large. In this paper, we propose a new estimation approach where the likelihood function for the regression parameters is developed from the joint likelihood function by replacing the correlation parameter with a consistent estimator involving unknown regression parameters. Thus the new approach relaxes the dimension issue, that is, the dimension of the correlation parameters does not affect the estimation of the main regression parameters. The asymptotic properties of the estimates of the main regression parameters (obtained based on consistent estimating functions for correlation parameters) are studied in detail.

This paper considers the estimation problem for linear continuous-time systems with the interrupted observation mechanism which is characterized in terms of the jump Markov process taking on the values of 0 or 1. The minimum variance estimator algorithm is derived. The approach adopted here is that we express the jump process in terms of the initial value and the jump times instead of its instantaneous values and that in order to apply Lainiotis' formula we regard the initial value and jump times as the unknown system parameter vector. The parameter vector is, however, infinite dimensional so that Lainiotis' formula cannot be applied directly. This is because the formula is applicable only to linear systems with a finite dimensional parameter vector. Therefore, the minimum variance estimator algorithm is derived by using some limiting procedure. The resultant optimal algorithm is infinite dimensional, so that feasible approximate algorithms should be developed for practical implementation. A simple illustrating example is also worked out.

Maximum-likelihood (ML), also given its connection to least-squares (LS), is widely adopted in parameter estimation of physiological system models, i.e., assigning numerical values to the unknown model parameters from the experimental data. A more sophisticated but less used approach is maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. Conceptually, while ML adopts a Fisherian approach, i.e., only experimental measurements are supplied to the estimator, MAP estimation is a Bayesian approach, i.e., a priori available statistical information on the unknown parameters is also exploited for their estimation. In this paper, after a brief review of the theory behind ML and MAP estimators, we compare their performance in the solution of a case study concerning the determination of the parameters of a sum of exponential model which describes the impulse response of C-peptide (CP), a key substance for reconstructing insulin secretion. The results show that MAP estimation always leads to parameter estimates with a precision (sometimes significantly) higher than that obtained through ML, at the cost of only a slightly worse fit. Thus, a three exponential model can be adopted to describe the CP impulse response model in place of the two exponential model usually identified in the literature by the ML/LS approach. Simulated case studies are also reported to evidence the importance of taking into account a priori information in a data poor situation, e.g., when a few or too noisy measurements are available. In conclusion, our results show that, when a priori information on the unknown model parameters is available, Bayes estimation can be of relevant interest, since it can significantly improve the precision of parameter estimates with respect to Fisher estimation. This may also allow the adoption of more complex models than those determinable by a Fisherian approach.

The inversion of seismic amplitude variation with incident angle and azimuth data for estimating fracture and fluid indicators is a crucial task. Tangential fracture weakness and fluid bulk modulus are sensitive to fracture density and fluid saturation, respectively, and serve as key indicators of fractures and fluids. We first express the PP-wave reflection coefficient and azimuthal elastic impedance (AEI) in terms of these fracture and fluid indicators. We develop a two-stage inversion method that uses azimuthal seismic data to estimate multiple parameters, involving P- and S-wave moduli, density, and fracture and fluid indicators. To enhance the accuracy of the multiparameter inversion, we focus on constructing robust initial models for the unknown parameters to constrain the inversion process. Specifically, we introduce a novel approach that uses prestacked seismic attributes — such as the amplitude-variation-with-angle intercept and isotropic and anisotropic gradients — to derive initial models for fracture and fluid indicators. In particular, for constructing initial models of fluid indicators, we develop an extended AEI approach to transform seismic attributes into fluid indicators. To further refine the multiparameter inversion, we incorporate the Hessian matrix, which is calculated using the first- and second-order derivatives of AEI, to compute perturbations in the unknown parameter vector during the second stage of the inversion. Finally, we apply our method to noisy synthetic and real data, which demonstrates its robustness and ability to generate reliable fracture and fluid indicators that match well with logging data. We conclude that our inversion method is a promising tool for predicting potentially hydrocarbon-bearing fractured reservoirs.

Over the last couple of decades the demand for high precision and enhanced performance of physical systems has been steadily increasing. This demand often results in miniaturization and complex design, thus increasing the need for complex nonlinear control methods. Some of the state of the art nonlinear methods are stymied by the requirement of full state information, model and parameter uncertainties, mathematical complexity, etc. For many scenarios it is nearly impossible to consider all the uncertainties during the design of a feedback controller. Additionally, while designing a modelbased nonlinear control there is no standard mechanism to incorporate performance measures. Some of the mentioned issues can be addressed by using online learning. Animals and humans have the ability to share, explore, act or respond, memorize the outcome and repeat the task to achieve a better outcome when they encounter the same or a similar scenario. This is called learning from interaction. One instance of this approach is reinforcement learning (RL). However, RL methods are hindered by the curse of dimensionality, non-interpretability and non-monotonic convergence of the learning algorithms. This can be attributed to the intrinsic characteristics of RL, as it is a modelfree approach and hence no standard mechanism exists to incorporate a priori model information. In this thesis, learning methods are proposed which explicitly use the available system knowledge. This can be seen as a new class of approaches that bridge model-based and model-free methods. These methods can address some of the hurdles mentioned earlier. For example, i) a prior system information can speed up the learning, ii) new control objectives can be achieved which otherwise would be extremely difficult to attain using only model-based methods, iii) physical meaning can be attributed to the learned controller. The developed approach is as follows: themodel of the given physical system is represented in the port-Hamiltonian (PH) form. For the system dynamics in PH form a passivity-based control (PBC) law is formulated, which often requires the solution to a set of partial differential equations (PDEs). Instead of finding an analytical solution, the PBC control law is parameterized using an unknown parameter vector. Then, by using a variation of the standard actor-critic learning algorithm, the unknown parameters can be learned online. Using the principles of stochastic approximation theory, a proof of convergence for the developed method is shown. The proposedmethods are evaluated for the stabilization and regulation ofmechanical and electro-mechanical systems. The simulation and experimental results show comparable learning curves. In the final part of the thesis a novel integral reinforcement learning approach is developed to solve for the optimal output tracking control problem for a set of linear heterogeneous multi-agent systems. Unlike existing methods, this approach does not need to solve either the output regulator equation or requires a p-copy of the leader’s dynamics in the agent’s control law. A detailed numerical evaluation has been conducted to show the feasibility of the developed method.

Multi-armed bandit is a widely-studied model for sequential decision-making problems. The most studied model in the literature is stochastic bandits wherein the reward of each arm follows an independent distribution. However, there is a wide range of applications where the rewards of different alternatives are correlated to some extent. In this paper, a class of structured bandit problems is studied in which rewards of different arms are functions of the same unknown parameter vector. To minimize the cumulative learning regret, we propose a globally-informative Thompson sampling algorithm to learn and leverage the correlation among arms, which can deal with unknown multi-dimensional parameter and non-monotonic reward functions. Our studies demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves significant improvement in the learning speed. In particular, the designed algorithm is used to solve an edge transcoder selection problem in crowdsourced live video streaming systems and shows superior performance as compared to the existing schemes.

A robust output feedback control which globally stabilizes a class of SISO minimum-phase nonlinear systems with known and constant relative degree containing a vector of unknown parameters is developed. The constant parameter vector is not restricted to enter linearly in the state equations but it is assumed to belong to a known compact set and an imprecise knowledge of the nonlinearities (e.g., lookup tables) is allowed. The class of nonlinear systems is determined by geometric conditions; an additional assumption, which generalizes the knowledge of the sign of high-frequency gain for linear systems, is also required. The nonlinearities are restricted to depend, in suitable coordinates, on the output only: no growth conditions, such as sector or Lipschitz, are required. The robust output feedback control stabilizes the system for every value of the parameter vector in a known compact set. The order of the compensator is equal to the relative degree minus one. >

A MATLAB implementation of the minimum relative entropy method for linear inverse problems

BackgroundWhen creating mechanistic mathematical models for biological signaling processes it is tempting to include as many known biochemical interactions into one large model as possible. For the JAK-STAT, MAP kinase, and NF-κB pathways a lot of biological insight is available, and as a consequence, large mathematical models have emerged. For large models the question arises whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined by parameter estimation from measured data. Systematic approaches to answering this question are indispensable since the uniqueness of model parameter values is essential for predictive mechanistic modeling.ResultsWe propose an eigenvalue based method for efficiently testing identifiability of large ordinary differential models and compare this approach to three existing ones. The methods are benchmarked by applying them to models of the signaling pathways mentioned above. In all cases the eigenvalue method proposed here and the orthogonal method find the largest set of identifiable parameters, thus clearly outperforming the other approaches. The identifiability analysis shows that the pathway models are not identifiable, even under the strong assumption that all system state variables are measurable. We demonstrate how the results of the identifiability analysis can be used for model simplification.ConclusionWhile it has undoubtedly contributed to recent advances in systems biology, mechanistic modeling by itself does not guarantee unambiguous descriptions of biological processes. We show that some recent signal transduction pathway models have reached a level of detail that is not warranted. Rigorous identifiability tests reveal that even if highly idealized experiments could be carried out to measure all state variables of these signaling pathways, some unknown parameters could still not be estimated. The identifiability tests therefore show that the level of detail of the investigated models is too high in principle, not just because too little experimental information is available. We demonstrate how the proposed method can be combined with biological insight, however, to simplify these models.

Regression analysis is one method in statistics that used to know the pattern of functional relationships between response variables and predictor variables. Combination of parametric and nonparametric regression is semi parametric regression. The most popular estimator for nonparametric or semi parametric regression is spline truncated estimator. Problems in everyday life often using regression modeling with longitudinal data. Longitudinal data is a combination of cross-section data and time-series data. In longitudinal data, between subjects are independent of each other but between observations in the subject are dependent. One of the most important parts of statistical inference is interval estimation. Interval estimation aims to determine predictor variables that have a significant effect on the response variable. This study aims to obtain the form of interval estimation for parameters of semi parametric regression models using spline truncated estimator in longitudinal data. To solve this problem, the Weighted Least Square method and a pivotal quantity method were used for unknown population variance cases. The result of the theoretical study was that pivotal quantity distributed student-t. The shortest parameter interval estimation of semi parametric spline truncated regression model was obtained through the optimization process using the method of Lagrange.Regression analysis is one method in statistics that used to know the pattern of functional relationships between response variables and predictor variables. Combination of parametric and nonparametric regression is semi parametric regression. The most popular estimator for nonparametric or semi parametric regression is spline truncated estimator. Problems in everyday life often using regression modeling with longitudinal data. Longitudinal data is a combination of cross-section data and time-series data. In longitudinal data, between subjects are independent of each other but between observations in the subject are dependent. One of the most important parts of statistical inference is interval estimation. Interval estimation aims to determine predictor variables that have a significant effect on the response variable. This study aims to obtain the form of interval estimation for parameters of semi parametric regression models using spline truncated estimator in longitudinal data. To solve this problem, t...

The iterative method, which can be applied to estimation of the unknown vector of discrete parameters in combination with filtering of the unknown vector of continuous signal parameters, is proposed. It is demonstrated that this method makes it possible to construct highly efficient algorithms for joint demodulation and filtering of communications channel parameters in code-division multiple-access and orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing systems.

This paper presents a solution to a robust optimal regulation problem for a nonlinear polynomial system affected by parametric and matched uncertainties, which is based only on partial state information. The parameters describing the dynamics of the nonlinear polynomial plant depend on a vector of unknown parameters, which belongs to a finite parametric set, and the application of a certain control input is associated with the worst or least favorable value of the unknown parameter. A high-order sliding mode state reconstructor is designed for the nonlinear plant in such a way that the previously designed control can be applied for a system with incomplete information. Additionally, the matched uncertainty is also compensated by means of the same output-based regulator. The obtained algorithm is applied to control a mechanical pendulum of the third order, successfully verifying the effectiveness of the developed approach.