Initial Margin Requirements and Stock Returns Volatility: Another Look

IN MY judgment," maintained William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman of the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, "we can never under the present margin regulations have the same result that occurred in terms of a financial crash in 1929 through undermargined accounts, low margins resulting in a financial debacle."' A widely used elementary economics textbook claimed, "Margin requirements have exercised an important restrictive influence on security speculation, as contrasted with the uncontrolled period of the late 1920's... Nearly everyone agrees that Federal Reserve margin requirements exercise a healthy restraint on speculative stock purchases in a boom" (Bach, 1963, p. 116). But what evidence is there that margin requirements have the effects claimed? At the December meetings of the American Economic Association, George J. Stigler, in the Presidential address, called on economists to test their assumptions that state regulation of private activity has indeed been successful (Stigler, 1965). This article brings together some data on the efficacy of margin requirements. While the figures can only be considered preliminary, and more data should be collected to test margin requirements, the data that are available and presented here indicate that not one of the aims of the legislation establishing margin requirements has been accomplished.2

A simple overlapping generations model is used to characterize the effects of initial margin requirements on the volatility of risky asset prices. Investors are assumed to exhibit heterogeneous preferences for risk-bearing, the distribution of which evolves stochastically across generations. This framework is used to show that imposing a binding initial margin requirement may either increase or decrease stock price volatility, depending upon the microeconomic structure behind fluctuations in economy-wide average risk-bearing propensity. The ambiguous effect on volatility similarly arises when the source of heterogeneity is noise trader beliefs. BEYOND THEIR PRUDENTIAL FUNCTIONS, the effects of initial margin requirements on securities markets are not well understood. Many have argued, based upon empirical findings, that the level of margin requirements has no discernable impact on stock price behavior.' Nevertheless, the view that high margin requirements dampen speculative excesses and reduce excess price volatility remains popular. The simultaneous existence of such views highlights the uncertainty surrounding this issue. In fact, there exists no rigorously articulated theory of the interaction between initial margin requirements and stock prices and their returns' characteristics. In this paper we construct a simple dynamic model useful for characterizing the effects of initial margin requirements on security prices and returns. To analyze the impact of margins, we introduce investor heterogeneity into an otherwise simplified overlapping generations (OLG) economy.2 The OLG models are constructed so that each generation displays heterogeneous preferences or beliefs, the distribution of which evolves stochastically across generations. In each of two heterogeneous taste models we consider there are two types of agents, one of which is more risk tolerant than the other. In one model, the

This study aims to examine common risk factors' effects in the Fama and French Five-Factor Model plus Momentum Factor on The Bisnis-27 Index Stocks component during the 2016-2020 period. This research's common risk factors include market risk premium, firm size, book-to-market equity ratio, profitability, investment, and momentum. A quantitative approach will be used in this study by using multiple linear regression. The regression in this study was generated by the common effects model method. This study reveals that a portfolio's excess return is simultaneously affected by common risk factors that are in place this study. The findings in this study show that market risk premium, book-to-market ratio, company size, and momentum positively affect portfolios' excess returns. The greater the market risk premium, the smaller the size of the company, the larger the book-to-market ratio, and the stock's past performance, as reflected by the momentum, has implications for the acquisition of a larger excess return on the portfolio. Meanwhile, there is no significant influence between profitability and investment factor on portfolios' excess returns.

Procyclicality of CCP Margin Models: Systemic Problems Need Systemic Approaches

The studys main focus is on the Fama-French Three-Factor Models capacity to account for cross-sectional volatility in stock returns. The Fama-French Three-Factor Model was used to assess a sample of 720 equity funds and determine each funds excess returns and three-factor risk exposures. The exposure of each element was then tested using linear regression to see if it could predict the excess returns. The studys focus is on the shortcomings of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the possibility that the 3-factor model could offer a more precise and thorough explanation of stock returns. The empirical results indicate that it may not be robust all the time, and there could be other factors functioning meanwhile, which are not captured by the model. Furthermore, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) may not be effective and accurate in its strictest form. The studys empirical examination of the Three-Factor Model and its implications for the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and other related ideas are what give it its value.

The introduction of mandatory margining for non-cleared derivatives portfolios has major implications for the pricing and risk measurement of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. In particular, a model for estimating future initial margin requirements is necessary to enable the calculation of relevant pricing adjustments, net counterparty credit exposures and credit capital requirements. Existing literature on the topic suggests a model that makes use of regression techniques, but little detail is available on the predictive quality of these models within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. We review these regression-based initial margin models in detail and compare their output against the actual margin requirements measured by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association standard initial margin model (ISDA SIMM) methodology. We observe that the models generally perform well for single trades but show some degradation for larger diversified portfolios. We investigate potential extensions and improvements to the model, along with examining some additional ‘conservatism’ features that may have application in the context of credit exposure measurement. The initial margin modelling approaches discussed here are similarly applicable to centrally cleared or exchange-traded portfolios.

Initial margin requirements represent: (1) a cost impediment to the wealth constrained investor and (2) a potential way of mitigating excessive volatility. However, prior empirical research finds that margins are not an effective tool in reducing volatility. We consider the possibility that margins primarily affect certain stocks and investors. Specifically, we test whether margins affect individuals who, as a group, we believe to be the investors most affected when margin requirements change. Our initial empirical tests, however, do not support this contention.

Volatility-Managed Portfolios of Mutual Funds

Central Clearing and Collateral Demand

We use an extensive data set of bilateral exposures on credit default swap (CDS) to estimate the impact on collateral demand of new margin and clearing practices and regulations. We decompose collateral demand for both customers and dealers into several key components, including the "velocity drag" associated with variation margin movements. We demonstrate the impact on collateral demand of more widespread initial margin requirements, increased novation of CDS to central clearing parties (CCPs), an increase in the number of clearing members, the proliferation of CCPs of both specialized and non-specialized types, and client clearing. Among other results, we show that system-wide collateral demand is increased significantly by the application of initial margin requirements for dealers, whether or not the CDS are cleared. Given these dealer-to-dealer initial margin requirements, however, mandatory central clearing is shown to lower, not raise, system-wide collateral demand, provided there is no significant proliferation of CCPs. Central clearing does, however, have significant distributional consequences for collateral requirements across various types of market participants.

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Investors and Portfolio Constraints

The purpose of the study is to test how far the risk, size, and firm value variables of the Fama and French three factor model could explain the excess return of small and large stock portfolios in the Indonesian Capital Market (ICM). The study was conducted during 2016-2019 on the official 45 liquid shares namely LQ45. In this study, six portfolios were formed, which were produced from small and large portfolio groups. Each portfolio consists of small high, medium, low and large portfolio consists of large, medium and low. The results showed that market risk for all small and large portfolios have a positive and significant effect. In contrast to company size, size has a significant effect on small, medium, low and large high portfolios. While large low and medium portfolios are not significant. Testing the effect of company value on small and large portfolio excess returns is significant except for the small low portfolio. In general, the three-factor research model is a pretty good model to explain portfolio excess returns in Indonesia.

Forecasting the Distribution of Option Returns

The available evidence on the effects of political variables on both returns and volatility of aggregate stock indices is scant and mixed. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to a panel dataset of 17 parliamentary democracies spanning the post-war period until 1995, we test the robustness of political variables in explaining stock returns and stock return volatility. While we find that the influence of political variables on excess returns is weak, there is evidence of some political variables explaining return volatility.

CCP Clearing Demystified