Institutional quality and risk in the banking system

Credit risk has become one of the main risks faced by banks under the background of increasing loan demand. Meanwhile, bank credit risk may be affected by a number of factors, including the expansion rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), changes in interest rate, unemployment rate and even more. These macroeconomic factors are crucial in determining how credit risk for banks is shaped. This paper concludes the different impacts of different macroeconomic factors discussed in several papers on the risks of bank credit, and illustrates how changes in GDP growth rate and rate of interest affect credit risks. Through comprehensive literature review and empirical research, this paper finds that macro factors, including the expansion rate of GDP and the rate of interest, have considerable impacts on banks' credit risk. Bank credit risk will decrease as GDP growth rate increases; however the risk of bank credit will increase as interest rates rise. At the end, the paper provides several suggestions for the development of risk management strategies, including the monitoring of macroeconomic factors and the adjustment of credit policies under different economic situations. The research results are intended to help researchers in related fields understand current research findings and patterns of development in the research field, to give a theoretical foundation and backing for their investigations, and to offer important guiding significance for banks and relevant regulators to formulate risk management strategies.

We develop a multivariate credit risk model that accounts for joint defaults of banks and allows us to disentangle how much of banks’ credit risk is systemic. We find that the United States and United Kingdom differ not only in the evolution of systemic risk but, in particular, in their banks’ systemic exposures. In both countries, however, systemic credit risk varies substantially, represents about half of total bank credit risk on average, and induces high risk premia. The results suggest that sovereign and bank systemic risk are particularly interlinked in the United Kingdom.

Credit risk management, which is the basic of the credit application, is the most perfect embodiment in the bank credit application and asset supervision. The ultimate purpose of credit risk management is to ensure that credit fund is of safety, profitability and fluidity. At present, it is extremely important of commercial banks to set up an early bank risk warning system. The author who makes great effort on the credit risk and its reason, besides bringing in the western commercial banks experience of bank credit risk management, makes researches on credit risk in a microcosmic view. The author sets up early warning indicators for commercial bank credit risk, and carries out the warning for the credit risk in advance with the help of artificial neural networks. The experiment has proved that this method is objective and effective. So it can provide theoretical basis, which is more scientific and credible for detection and early warning about commercial bank credit risk.

This paper explores the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on commercial banks in the Republic of North Macedonia. It has used data from financial statements of the banks in order to find out if there are changes in banks profitability, as well as banks exposure on liquidity and credit risk in the period of Corona crises and before the crises. Furthermore, we explore if there are changes in the credit and deposit potential of banks and whether there are an increase in non-performing loans. We conclude that even the banking sector has faced several challenges, it maintained its stability and contributed to mitigation of the consequences of the corona crisis. This, on the one hand, is a result of public confidence in the banking system, but, on the other hand is due to the rapid reaction of the National Bank of Republic of North Macedonia. In 2020, the banking system made a higher profit compared to the previous year. Net interest income was the most significant in the structure of total income and did not decrease in 2020 compared to 2019. Banks ensured solid growth of loans and deposits as well as properly managed their credit and liquidity risk. It is important to emphasize that banks have maintained a stable and solid liquidity position, which is one of the main pillars of the stability of the banking system, especially important in times of crisis. There was also no increase in credit risk, on the contrary there was a decrease in the percentage of non-performing loans. This is primarily due to regulatory measures taken by the National Bank in the field of credit risk management and the introduction of the possibility of temporary deferral of loans. Key words: bank profitability, banking system in the Republic of North Macedonia, COVID-19 pandemic, credit risk, liquidity risk, non-performing loans

The efficiency of banking performance, related to ensuring reliable protection for banks from credit risk by borrowers, requires resolving multiple issues related to the analysis of their creditworthiness and reliability, as well as development of methods and models to predict the consequences of non-repayment or overdue loans from the borrowers‘ side for the further effective functioning of a bank. Taking into account a considerable amount of scientific works devoted to the research of influence of credit risk on banking there is still a necessity in improvement of existing methods of credit risk management. The article is devoted to the research of the influence of credit risk on banking in Ukraine, in regard to the analysis of the domestic and foreign approaches and methods of determining banking credit risk; quality of its management and minimization, analysis of the legislation on the definition of exposure to borrower's credit risk; analytical reviews of indicators of the banking system, in particular, research of the banking credit portfolio structure for revealing the reasons of change of particular indicators. And, consequently, their influence on the financial sustainability and bank solvency. The research pays attention to intermediary organizations as participants of contractual relations between banks and borrowers. The authors give their own vision of the efficiency of measures taken by the government to stabilize banking and assess the introduced models of banking credit risk management from a scientific perspective . The analysis of the indicators showed a growing share of non-performing loans, in particular, the number of overdue assets in the credit portfolio of banks. Which would be caused by the declining production and a decrease in the level of solvency of the population against the background of general political and economic instability in the country. The study identified the lack of effectiveness of the existing legislation related to credit policy and the work with non-performing loans, which would have contributed to the protection of the banking system from the existing credit risk and corresponded to realities of the modern state of the economy. Key words: banking, overdue assets, overdue loans, credit, credit risk, credit portfolio.

Over the last 30 years, China has experienced outstanding economic growth along with significant transformation in its financial system and institutional environment. It has also emerged as the primary destination for substantial foreign direct investment (FDI). Therefore, numerous studies have focused on the roles of FDI, financial development and institutional quality in stimulating the Chinese economy. However, existing literature primarily addresses the direct linear impact on economic growth, neglecting potential non-linear relationships and the roles of institutions and financial development in moderating the FDI–growth nexus. This study employs unit root and Johansen’s cointegration tests to examine the roles of FDI, institutional quality and financial development in explaining economic growth in China from 1985 to 2020. Our results show that FDI, institutions, financial development and growth are cointegrated, with non-linear effects of institutional quality and financial development on growth. Furthermore, the impact of FDI on growth decreases when financial development is high (0.627%–0.517%), but increases with improved institutional quality (0.921%–1.158%). Hence, continuous improvements in institutional quality and the financial system do not uniformly affect economic growth, but significantly influence the contribution of FDI to economic growth in China.

Purpose - This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and specific variables of the bank on sharia bank credit risk in Indonesia based on the type of financing agreement. Islamic bank credit risks based on financing agreements consist of credit risk based on profit sharing, receivables and rent. Method - This study uses secondary time series data. The data used is the data of Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia from January 2015 to March 2019. The data analysis method uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) with Eviews 10 software tools. Result - Based on the results of the impulse response, the impact of shock on macroeconomic variables and banking-specific variables on sharia bank credit risk in general is almost the same except for credit risk based on rent in certain variables. Judging from the variance decomposition, in general the CAR variable has the greatest influence on the risk of Islamic bank credit in Indonesia. Implication - There must be an acceleration in strengthening the capital structure of Islamic banks in Indonesia. Originality - This research fills in the blanks about syariah bank credit risk based on the type of financing agreement.

The article is devoted to the assessment of financial risks of the banking sector, their impact on the activity of banks and their minimization in conditions of economic instability. The banking sector is a key link that ensures the development of the financial system, but banking activity is risky. Therefore, it is important to study banking risks and ways to minimize them in order to increase the efficiency and stability of the banking system. The article provides a classification of banking risks in accordance with domestic literature. Factors due to which banking institutions are exposed to risks are reflected. Financial risks of the banking sector affect the net profit, capital of the bank. Therefore, the impact of risks on the financial stability and efficiency of Ukrainian banks was analyzed. The bank's regulatory capital is one of the most important indicators of its activity, the main purpose of which is to cover the negative consequences of various risks. During the entire studied period, there is a tendency to increase this indicator, which is positive. Due to external risks, namely the difficult military and economic situation, the profit of Ukrainian banks decreased. The credit risk, which is one of the most significant in banking activity, is characterized. The causes of credit risk in banking are given. The dynamics of the assets of Ukrainian banks, the volumes of loans granted, were studied. It was concluded that in modern conditions of banking activity, there is a slight slowdown in lending to the population and an increase in the volume of loans granted to business entities. To reduce credit risks, commercial banks use various methods to protect against credit risk: diversification, limiting, insurance, risk distribution. The banking sector cannot exist without risk, so it is necessary to look for ways to minimize them. Minimizing the level of financial risks in the banking sector involves the implementation of risk management measures and methods. Measures to minimize banking risks include preventive and protective measures. Banking risk management methods include: methods of avoiding and accepting banking risks. The article reflects the peculiarities of these measures and methods. Keywords: financial risks, banking sector, bank profit, credit risk, bank assets, bank risk minimization.

Bank credit default swaps and deposit insurance around the world

The article is devoted to the assessment of financial risks of the banking sector, their impact on the activity of banks and their minimization in conditions of economic instability. The banking sector is a key link that ensures the development of the financial system, but banking activity is risky. Therefore, it is important to study banking risks and ways to minimize them in order to increase the efficiency and stability of the banking system. The article provides a classification of banking risks in accordance with domestic literature. Factors due to which banking institutions are exposed to risks are reflected. Financial risks of the banking sector affect the net profit, capital of the bank. Therefore, the impact of risks on the financial stability and efficiency of Ukrainian banks was analyzed. The bank's regulatory capital is one of the most important indicators of its activity, the main purpose of which is to cover the negative consequences of various risks. During the entire studied period, there is a tendency to increase this indicator, which is positive. Due to external risks, namely the difficult military and economic situation, the profit of Ukrainian banks decreased. The credit risk, which is one of the most significant in banking activity, is characterized. The causes of credit risk in banking are given. The dynamics of the assets of Ukrainian banks, the volumes of loans granted, were studied. It was concluded that in modern conditions of banking activity, there is a slight slowdown in lending to the population and an increase in the volume of loans granted to business entities. To reduce credit risks, commercial banks use various methods to protect against credit risk: diversification, limiting, insurance, risk distribution. The banking sector cannot exist without risk, so it is necessary to look for ways to minimize them. Minimizing the level of financial risks in the banking sector involves the implementation of risk management measures and methods. Measures to minimize banking risks include preventive and protective measures. Banking risk management methods include: methods of avoiding and accepting banking risks. The article reflects the peculiarities of these measures and methods.

The purpose of the bank's credit risk rating is to reveal the credit risk level of the different banks. Based on rating index system of bank credit risk, the paper firstly uses the differential weighting method of the variation coefficient in order to determine objective weight effect sizes, then establishes calculation model of bank credit risk comprehensive scores, lastly uses optimum partition method to establish rating model of bank credit risk. The empirical results of rating model show that composite score of credit risk can be divided into five credit ratings and can not be divided into nine credit ratings. The contributions of this paper are to establish rating model of bank credit risk based on differential weighting method and optimum partition method and to solve the rating problem of credit risk of commercial banks.

The study investigates macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of credit for commercial banks from 2010Q1-2022.Q4 in Indonesia. The banking credit is divided into an investment, working capital, and consumption credits. The study aims to address a gap in the literature since most prior studies are concentrated on developed markets. A system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator is employed to investigate the impact of central bank rates and credit risk on credit. Dynamic-GMM estimations find that the central bank rate has a negative impact on the three types of credits. Meanwhile, non-performing loans positively impact investment and working capital credits but negatively affect consumption credit. The interaction between central bank rate and non-performing loans negatively impacts investment and working capital credits but positively affects consumption credit. This study provides managers and policymakers with timely information regarding bank credit drivers, encouraging management to take necessary measures, and policymakers may consider the importance of macroeconomic conditions while creating a bank lending policy. Similarly, it informs potential investors on how to evaluate the data when choosing a better investment option.

Determinants of Ex Post and Ex Ante Credit Risk: A Novel Panel Analysis and Comparative Evidence of Foreign and Local Malaysian Banks

Purpose of this study is to measure the impact of banking regulations specifically base rate, weighted average spread rate, bank capital, loan loss reserve, and broad money supply on credit risk of commercial banks in Nepal. Descriptive, correlational, and casual comparative research design have been used in this study. This study is based on secondary sources of data. Data were collected from annual audit reports of twenty- six commercial banks from fiscal year 2012/13 to 2018/19 out of twenty- seven, and from fiscal year 2020 to 2022, nineteen commercial banks out of twenty. Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB) as a Government owned bank has been excluded in this study. The mean, range, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis statistical tools were used in this study. This study reveals that loan loss reserve is highly scattered than after bank capital, credit risk, broad money supply, base rate, and weighted average spread rate respectively. There is significant positive relationship of credit risk with bank capital, loan loss reserve, and broad money supply. Study results revealed that there is significant impact of bank capital, loan loss reserve, broad money supply, and base rate on credit risk.

This study investigates the impact of ownership structure of Commercial Banks on bank credit risk in an emerging market like Bangladesh. Prais Winten regression model is applied to a sample of 32 commercial banks from the year of 2000 to 2014 with 390 observations. The result reveals that National Commercial Banks, depositors' influence, shareholders' influence, liquidity and profitability are negatively associated with credit risk whereas lag risk has a significant positive impact on credit risk. The effect of banks ownership structure on credit risk divulges a delicate governance of the banking sector. The study conveys a momentous implication of research findings in the national economy. It also found that national commercial banks have the tendency of violating the rules and absorbing heavy risk. It suggests that policy maker should rethink about the government ownership of banks. Therefore the denationalization or reducing government ownership structure is highly recommended.