Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions

Climate adaptation is essential to reduce the risks of climate change and to ensure long-term resilience. As climate risks increase, so does the need for climate adaptation, supported by risk-informed decision-making and policy. Modelled projections of future climate and socioeconomic scenarios increasingly guide climate policy and decision-making, however, current modelling frameworks often lack a nuanced representation of adaptation. At the same time, adaptation planning and decision-making requires approaches able to develop flexible and adaptive management strategies that account for uncertainties and reflect specific adaptation objectives, such as adaptation pathways. These are flexible and robust sequences of adaptation options that span the adaptation solution space which is a multidimensional space within which adaptation is enabled and implemented. By projecting constraints on the adaptation solution space under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios, our research explores the link between global climate modelling and adaptation pathways approaches. Projecting dimensions of adaptive capacity allows for the identification and anticipationof possible barriers to adaptation, and establishing of enabling conditions that lead to a wider adaptation solution space. As biophysical and socio-economic changes constrain the range of adaptation options available in the future, we assess the potential adaptation uptake along a set of different climate and socioeconomic scenarios for European regions. We use a range of socioeconomic indicators as proxies for the potential for the uptake of specific adaptation options. Based on the statistical analysis of the observed implementation levels, we project and map the potential uptake of several adaptation options into future along the Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios, and additional stress-testing scenarios. Our study focuses on Europe using a variety of risks, including heat-related health impacts, and wildfire risk to forestry. This research bridges top‑down climate modelling with bottom‑up adaptation planning to assess how socioeconomic conditions can shape the future adaptation solution space. This approach helps to assess socioeconomic limits to adaptation and the future adaptation solution space, and further enables a more nuanced representation of adaptation in climate impact studies. The results can inform local adaptation planning in terms of outlining the availability of individual adaptation options as part of adaptation pathways development, as well as identifying key socioeconomic factors in constraining adaptation uptake potential. Addressing such constraints in adaptation policy on different levels can widen the solution space, and ultimately, inform climate-resilient planning and decision-making.

The global carbon-climate system is a complex dynamical system with multiple feedbacks among components, and to steer this system away from dangerous climate change, it may not be enough to prescribe action according to long-term scenarios of fossil fuel emissions. We introduce here concepts from control theory, a branch of applied mathematics that is effective at steering complex dynamical systems to desired states, and distinguish between open- and closed-loop control. We attempt (1) to show that current scientific work on carbon-climate feedbacks and climate policy more closely resembles the conceptual model of open- than closed-loop control, (2) to introduce a mathematical generalization of the carbon-climate system as a compartmental dynamical system that can facilitate the formal treatment of the closed-loop control problem, and (3) to formulate carbon-climate control as a congestion control problem, discussing important concepts such as observability and controllability. We also show that most previous discussions on climate change mitigation and policy development have relied on an implicit assumption of open-loop control that does not consider frequent corrections due to deviations of goals from observations. Using a reduced complexity model, we illustrate that the problem of managing the global carbon cycle can be abstracted as a network congestion problem, accounting for nonlinear behavior and feedback from a global carbon monitoring system. As opposed to scenarios, the goal of closed-loop control is to develop rules for continuously steering the global carbon-climate system away from dangerous climate change.

Observational evidence from different aspects, such as temperature, sea level, etc., has brought climate change to the attention. The impacts caused by it will vary regionally but will increase over time as global temperatures increase. Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change. While buildings hold important key to effectively addressing climate change by applying mitigation technologies and policies because buildings accounts for large part of global final energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper focuses on climate change mitigation in building sector so as to find out proper methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience to climate change. It summarizes the mitigation technologies in building sector, its opportunities and challenges, and sectoral polices. Then it analyzes the roles of stakeholders in building sector. Finally, the mitigation in Norway, which is with high vulnerabilities, is stated as a case study to present a country’s responses to climate change in building sector. It has been proved that applying appropriate mitigation technologies and policies, and integrating different stakeholders together properly with recognizing their roles can effectively make a great effort to global climate change mitigation. Only when climate change is regard as important and mitigation technologies and policies are applied properly especially in building sector, can we achieve the sustainable development.

Boreal forests play an important role in climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation and the provision of vital ecosystem services. Changing climate is likely to increase the frequency and the severity of forest disturbances. Hence, increasing disturbances may offset the past and ongoing efforts to increase forest-based mitigation and halt biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of forest ecosystems and predicting their responses to management, changing climate and disturbance regimes is vital.  While forest disturbance risk prevention measures i.e., adaptive management, offer solutions to safeguard future timber yields, the effects of adaptive management on biodiversity, climate change mitigation potential of forests and other ecosystem services have received little attention. In addition, it remains unknown whether climate change alters disturbance regimes in a way that cancels out efforts to increase and preserve carbon stocks and protect forest biodiversity. In this study we contrast the effects of mitigation versus adaptation forest management on the resilience of boreal forest ecosystems in a changing climate. We address the following questions: i) How timber harvests, forest carbon stocks and disturbed volumes develop in different forest management and land-use options that emphasize either adaptation or mitigation under different climate scenarios? ii) What are the synergies and trade-offs in ecosystem service and biodiversity indicators in adaptation and mitigation options? To address these questions, we used the process-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to dynamically simulate interactions of forest management, climate change and disturbances. We simulated combinations of seven forest management scenarios and three climate scenarios with ten replicate runs for 80 years in Finland. The forest management scenarios included a business-as-usual scenario and mitigation and adaptation scenarios with changes in rotation lengths and in the shares of deciduous trees in regeneration. Mitigation managements resulted in on average 6 to 15% higher carbon stocks over the simulation period compared to business-as-usual even when disturbances were accounted for but even halved the annual harvests. Mitigation management generally increased the amount of deadwood (3-21%) and large diameter trees (10-52%) compared to business-as-usual management but the severity of climate change reduced the positive trend on large diameter trees. Adaptive management reduced especially the bark beetle disturbances but, in some cases, the disturbed volumes were even higher than business-as-usual management because of increased wind damages. Generally, over the simulation period, adaptive management had a small positive impact on deadwood and mixed effects on large diameter trees.  Scenic beauty was impacted very little by climate change or management. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between disturbance risk prevention, biodiversity, carbon storage and sequestration and other ecosystem services. The results help to guide forest managers and policymakers in planning conservation and mitigation efforts, maximizing multiple benefits and enhancing forest resilience under a changing climate.

The quiet opposition: How the pro-economy lobby influences climate policy

Various studies on the impacts of climate change on the different sectors of the national economy have been carried out over some decades and such studies are still ongoing in Nigeria. This paper gives an overview of studies that have been carried out on various aspects of climate change by the higher institutions and research institutes in the country and what these have achieved in national climate governance and policy making. This is with the aim of assessing the achievements of such publications in climate policy and management as well as the likely missing gaps in and further prospects for climate research and studies by the Nigerian universities. The methodological approach is based on a theoretical background using secondary data obtained majorly from the internet and other published and unpublished literature. Amongst other issues, the results reveal some good measure of achievement of these research outputs in shaping the climate policy and management in the country and at the same time expose the challenges and some of the missing gaps which call for the attention of the Nigerian universities researchers.

Despite a clear mandate for addressing gender equality in climate policy and action, gender considerations tend to be sidelined or watered down at national/program levels. The Green Climate Fund is well placed to help bridge this gap and contribute toward a global vision to address gender equality and women's empowerment in climate policy and action. For this, the updated gender policy of the Green Climate Fund must be guided by a 'gender-responsive' approach, and hence move beyond the 'gender-sensitive' approach of the current gender policy. The objectives of the new gender policy should be two-fold: (i) advance gender equality and women's empowerment through climate change mitigation and/or adaptation actions; (ii) minimize gender-related risks and safeguard women's rights in all climate change actions. The Gender Policy and Action Plan need to be aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. This will allow for clearer sets of targets and progress indicators for assessing the Fund's contribution toward enhancing gender equality and women's empowerment (SDG5).Key pointsDespite a clear mandate for addressing gender equality in climate policy and action, gender considerations tend to be sidelined or watered down at national/program levels. The Green Climate Fund is well placed to help bridge this gap and contribute toward a global vision to address gender equality and women's empowerment in climate policy and action.For this, the updated gender policy of the Green Climate Fund must be guided by a 'gender-responsive' approach, and hence move beyond the 'gender-sensitive' approach of the current gender policy.The objectives of the new gender policy should be two-fold: (i) advance gender equality and women's empowerment through climate change mitigation and/or adaptation actions; (ii) minimize gender-related risks and safeguard women's rights in all climate change actions.The Gender Policy and Action Plan need to be aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. This will allow for clearer sets of targets and progress indicators for assessing the Fund's contribution toward enhancing gender equality and women's empowerment (SDG5).

Objectives: This study aimed to systematically analyze main climate adaptation, economic, and developmental policies in Jordan to uncover how the concept of women's empowerment and see how it was incarnated in in these strategic policy documents. Specifically, the study examines 15 key national climate and developmental policies, with particular attention to women's engagement in entrepreneurial and income-generating activities Methods: The study used the gap analysis approach to analyze the policy documents, integrating a self-designed thematic gap analysis model to investigate contextual elements within the policies. This model seamlessly merged an initial keyword search phase with a subsequent detailed thematic coding process, offering a comprehensive understanding of how women's empowerment and entrepreneurship were incarnated and addressed within the policy documents. Results: The study results suggested that women are positioned well in climate policy; however, efforts to delineate women's empowerment on a regional basis through the implementation of green energy solutions appear to be missing. In addition, while women's economic empowerment through entrepreneurship in vulnerable communities was recognized, it lacks depth and adequate consideration, particularly in financing mechanisms. Conclusions: The study examined that pivotal policies in Jordan underscore the significance of women's participation in crafting enduring climate and developmental strategies. While the investigation underscored shortcomings in certain aspects (such as the integration of green growth and financial mechanisms), the study recommends that collaborative consultation with external experts is advised to bolster these policies. Additionally, capacity-building efforts targeting the most vulnerable communities, particularly in modern entrepreneurial tools and practices, are recommended to foster more efficient economic activities

Multi-level climate governance: examining impacts and interactions between national and sub-national emissions mitigation policy mixes in Canada

Both climate and agricultural policy changes are commonly seen as important drivers for agricultural production. In this study, scena-rios of climate and political change were calculated for the Upper Danube catchment area using the regional optimization model ACRE. Two political scenarios were calculated for the year 2020. One scenario assumes the continuation of the Common Agricultural Policy reform 2003 the other assumes a strong shift away from payments of the first pillar to payments of the second pillar of the CAP. Both scenarios were combined with four different scenarios of climate change and technological progress derived from ICCP SRES assumptions and the ACCELERATES project. The results of the scenario calculations were analysed with respect to their implica-tions for the whole catchment area as well as for selected districts. Climate change and technological progress both cause small changes in agricultural land use: fodder crop area tends to be converted to cash crop area, and intensive grasslands tend to be converted into extensive grasslands. Climate change and technological progress increase crop productivity, and consequently, total gross margin increases. The impact of climate change might get stronger toward the end of the century which is beyond the scope of the investigations presented here. The impact of climate change might thus switch from bringing net benefits in the short to medium term to bringing net losses for the area investigated in the long run.

First and last and always: Politics of the ‘energy efficiency first’ principle in EU energy and climate policy

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary

Financial incentives to poor countries promote net emissions reductions in multilateral climate agreements

This collection of primary sources, illuminated by extensive contextual analysis, provides a comprehensive and balanced survey of the evolution of global climate change policies and politics in the United States. This extensive collection of primary documents examines the history of climate science; various policy prescriptions for addressing the effects of climate change; political fault lines with respect to international efforts to address global warming; claims regarding the influence of industry groups and environmental "radicals" on climate policy and science; and the impact of climate change on other policy areas such as public health, energy, economic development, and wilderness conservation. The set includes excerpts from important scientific papers and government reports, political speeches from presidents and other influential lawmakers, perspectives from environmental activists and conservative think-tanks, editorial essays from leading media figures, provisions of major laws, and more. Together, these documents provide a broad range of perspectives, from scientific fields as well as from political and ideological standpoints that have emerged in response to the debate surrounding climate change. They offer readers a greater understanding of the arguments not only of lawmakers, activists, and scientists leading efforts to fight, mitigate, and adapt to climate change but also of those skeptical of climate change.

How do we understand political polarization around the issue of climate change in the United States? Using a mixed-methods approach, this paper unpacks the components of the debate over climate science and policy between 2015 and 2017 to understand the sources of divisiveness that have come to characterize climate politics in the United States. Data in our analysis include the content of Congressional hearings and open-ended, semi-structured interviews with the most influential climate policy actors at the federal level. We find high levels of polarization around two specific components of this debate: the type of policy instrument and the role of the federal government in regulating carbon dioxide emissions. This paper concludes by exploring how patterns of polarization preceding the 2016 election help us to understand the expected political debate over federal climate policy in the years to come.