Intelligent construction risk prediction based on Bayesian optimized extreme gradient boosting

To achieve accurate prediction of tunnel boring machine (TBM) penetration rate (PR) under complex geological conditions, this study proposes an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework optimized using Bayesian optimization (BO). A dataset comprising 411 samples collected from two TBM projects was established, incorporating key geological parameters (uniaxial compressive strength, elastic modulus, and Poisson’s ratio) and operational parameters (thrust force and rotation speed). Seven ML models, including decision tree, Gaussian process regression, k-nearest neighbors, random forest (RF), support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine, were systematically optimized using BO under five-fold cross-validation. The results demonstrate that ensemble learning models exhibit superior predictive performance. Among them, the RF model achieved the highest accuracy on the testing set with an R 2 of 0.9582, followed by the light gradient boosting machine with an R 2 of 0.9565. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis indicates that uniaxial compressive strength is the dominant factor controlling PR, while thrust force act as the primary controllable parameters. The proposed framework effectively integrates high predictive accuracy with strong interpretability, providing a reliable methodological basis for intelligent TBM performance prediction and construction parameter optimization.

Although the goal of rectal cancer treatment is to restore gastrointestinal continuity, some patients with rectal cancer develop a permanent stoma (PS) after sphincter-saving operations. Although many studies have identified the risk factors and causes of PS, few have precisely predicted the probability of PS formation before surgery. To validate whether an artificial intelligence model can accurately predict PS formation in patients with rectal cancer after sphincter-saving operations. Patients with rectal cancer who underwent a sphincter-saving operation at Taipei Medical University Hospital between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2021, were retrospectively included in this study. A machine learning technique was used to predict whether a PS would form after a sphincter-saving operation. We included 19 routinely available preoperative variables in the artificial intelligence analysis. To evaluate the efficiency of the model, 6 performance metrics were utilized: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve. In our classification pipeline, the data were randomly divided into a training set (80% of the data) and a validation set (20% of the data). The artificial intelligence models were trained using the training dataset, and their performance was evaluated using the validation dataset. Synthetic minority oversampling was used to solve the data imbalance. A total of 428 patients were included, and the PS rate was 13.6% (58/428) in the training set. The logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), random forest, decision tree and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithms were employed. The accuracies of the logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT) and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) models were 70%, 76%, 89%, 93%, 95%, 79% and 93%, respectively. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve values were 0.79 for the LR model, 0.84 for the GNB, 0.95 for the XGB, 0.95 for the GB, 0.99 for the RF model, 0.79 for the DT model and 0.98 for the LightGBM model. The key predictors that were identified were the distance of the lesion from the anal verge, clinical N stage, age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and preoperative albumin and carcinoembryonic antigen levels. Integration of artificial intelligence with available preoperative data can potentially predict stoma outcomes after sphincter-saving operations. Our model exhibited excellent predictive ability and can improve the process of obtaining informed consent.

With the sustainable development of the construction industry, recycled aggregate (RA) has been widely used in concrete preparation to reduce the environmental impact of construction waste. Compressive strength is an essential measure of the performance of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC). In order to understand the correspondence between relevant factors and the compressive strength of recycled concrete and accurately predict the compressive strength of RAC, this paper establishes a model for predicting the compressive strength of RAC using machine learning and hyperparameter optimization techniques. RAC experimental data from published literature as the dataset, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), support vector machine regression Support Vector Regression (SVR), and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT) RAC compressive strength prediction models were developed. The models were validated and compared using correlation coefficients (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the gap between the experimental results of the predicted outcomes. In particular, The effects of different hyperparameter optimization techniques (Grid search, Random search, Bayesian optimization-Tree-structured Parzen Estimator, Bayesian optimization- Gaussian Process Regression) on model prediction efficiency and prediction accuracy were investigated. The results show that the optimal combination of hyperparameters can be searched in the shortest time using the Bayesian optimization algorithm based on TPE (Tree-structured Parzen Estimator); the BO-TPE-GBDT RAC compressive strength prediction model has higher prediction accuracy and generalisation ability. This high-performance compressive strength prediction model provides a basis for RAC’s research and practice and a new way to predict the performance of RAC.

Development of compressive strength prediction platform for concrete materials based on machine learning techniques

Compared with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) under cardiopulmonary bypass, off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) is minimally invasive and reduces the risk of intraoperative blood transfusion and acute kidney injury. Nonetheless, OPCAB-related complications still pose a threat. Machine learning technology can analyze a large number of clinical data, establish risk prediction models and help clinicians make early and correct clinical decisions. Risk prediction models are available for mortality and morbidity after cardiac surgery, but they are not specific to OPCAB. This study aimed to develop a predictive model of severe complications after OPCAB, based on machine learning. Anesthesia records of OPCAB from the General Hospital of the Northern Theater Command (Shenyang, China) collected between January 1, 2019, and June 15, 2020, were analyzed. The endpoint of the study was the occurrence of serious complications after OPCAB (postoperative unplanned intra-aortic balloon pump, secondary surgery and death). The features entered into the models were as follows: intraoperative ventricular fibrillation, number of saphenous vein grafts, nerve block (NeB), venous oxygen saturation (SvO2), skin incision-bypass time, and hypertension. A total of 8 machine learning algorithms were tested: logistic regression analysis (LRA), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), naïve Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and categorical features gradient boosting (CatBoost). Among the 506 patients found in the records, 27 met the endpoint. The highest area under the curve (AUC) value was achieved with the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.94), and the lowest with the SVM model (AUC = 0.75). The highest and lowest accuracy were observed with the XGBoost and NB models, respectively, while the highest and lowest precision were achieved using the SVM and NB models, respectively. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the XGBoost model was selected as the most useful in this study. This study suggests using the XGBoost model to predict the risk of complications after OPCAB.

The endeavors toward sustainable transportation systems are a key concern for planners and decision-makers where increasing public transport attractiveness is essential. In this paper, a machine-learning-based predictive modeling approach is proposed for metro ridership prediction, considering the built environment around the stations; it is in the best interest of sustainable transport planning to ultimately contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs). A total of twelve parameters are considered as input features including time of day, day of the week, station, and nine types of land use density. Hence, a time-series database is used for model development and testing. Several machine learning (ML) models were evaluated for their predictive performance: ridge regression, lasso regression, elastic net, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, decision tree, random forest, extremely randomized trees, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting, and stacking ensemble learner. Bayesian optimization and grid search are combined with 10-fold cross-validation to tune the hyperparameters of each model. The performance of the developed models was validated based on the test dataset using five quantitative performance measures. The results demonstrated that, among the base learners, the decision tree showed the highest performance with an R2 of 87.4% on the test dataset. KNN and SVR were the second and third-best models among the base learners. Furthermore, the feature importance investigation explains the relative contribution of each type of land use density to the prediction of the metro ridership. The results showed that governmental land use density, educational facilities land use density, and mixed-use density are the three factors that play the most critical role in determining total ridership. The outcomes of this research could be of great help to the decision-making process for the best achievement of sustainable development goals in relation to sustainable transport and land use.

Background: Perioperative management plays a pivotal role in reducing complications and improving patient outcomes. The choice of anesthesia can significantly influence postoperative trajectories; however, current clinical practice lacks data-driven tools to support personalized selection. With the emergence of machine learning (ML) and access to large clinical databases, new opportunities have arisen to optimize anesthesia selection and predict patient outcomes. Methods: This retrospective study utilized the MIMIC-IV database (version 3.1), which comprises data from over 364,000 patients. After feature selection and preprocessing, 28 demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were used to model four types of anesthesia (general, regional, local, and sedation) in 31,821 patients. Supervised models [random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), decision tree, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] were trained to predict anesthesia type; synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was applied within training to address class imbalance. Performance was evaluated on a held-out test set using accuracy and macro-F1. Associations between anesthesia type and short-term outcomes (in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission, postoperative infection, and length of stay) were examined through observational comparisons. Results: Boosting-based models achieved the highest predictive performance, with XGBoost and gradient boosting reaching approximately 83% accuracy on the test set (macro-F1 for XGBoost ≈ 0.45). Across anesthesia groups, regional anesthesia was associated with more favorable outcomes than general anesthesia — namely lower in-hospital mortality, fewer infections, shorter hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) stays, and reduced 30-day readmission — although estimates for the regional group were less precise due to small sample size and residual confounding is possible. Conclusions: Anesthesia type was associated with short-term clinical outcomes in this large, single-center cohort, and boosting models demonstrated strong predictive performance for anesthesia type. These findings suggest a potential role for predictive analytics in perioperative planning, while underscoring that observed differences are associations rather than causal effects. Prospective multicenter studies and randomized trials, with longer-term patient-reported outcomes, are warranted. Predictive models require external validation and calibration before they can be used clinically.

The study presents a comprehensive framework for optimizing customer retention budget by integrating clustering, classification, and mathematical optimization techniques. The study begins with the IBM Telco dataset, which is prepared through data cleansing, encoding, and scaling. In the preliminary phase, customer segmentation is performed using K-Means clustering, with ? = 3 and ? = 4 identified as optimal based on the elbow method and Silhouette score. The configurations produced three (Premium, Standard, Low) and four (Premium, Standard Plus, Standard, Low) customer segments based on purchase preferences, which served as input features for churn prediction. In the second phase, the dataset was divided into training and test sets in an 80:20 ratio, followed by data balancing using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and Edited Nearest Neighbors (ENN). Multiple classification algorithms were evaluated, including Naive Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting (GB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) using F1-score as the performance metric. CatBoost and LightGBM, with k values of 3 and 4, respectively, were the highest-performing classification models, with only minimal differences in performance. Ultimately, customer segmentation established customer prioritization, whereas churn prediction assessed customer churn likelihood. Four distinct configurations were assessed utilizing mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) to optimise retention budget allocation within uniform budget constraints, discount amounts, and churn thresholds. In both the k=3 and k=4 scenarios, CatBoost surpassed LightGBM, with CatBoost at K=3 effectively discounting 66% of at-risk consumers across all three segments, hence improving the intervention's efficacy and budget allocation, making it the ideal choice for maximizing customer retention. The results demonstrate the importance of segmentation in enhancing retention budgeting and budget optimization, particularly concerning parameter sensitivity.

This study examines the wear characteristics of A356-Al 2 O 3 -B 4 C composites produced via stir casting, incorporating three reinforcement compositions (5, 10, and 15 wt.% Al 2 O 3 with a constant 5 wt.% B 4 C). We used seven different machine learning algorithms to predict wear rates based on experimental tribological data: Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting (GB), Light GBM, and AdaBoost. The Random Forest model was better at making predictions, with a R 2 of 0.83, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0012 m 3 /Nm, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.3%, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.0094 m 3 /Nm, which means it was 83% accurate. Experimental wear rates ranged from 4.3 × 10 −14 to 3.43 × 10 −13 m 3 /Nm across varying sliding distances (1500–6000 m), loads (10–20 N), and velocities (1.45–2.66 m/s). Systematic k-fold cross-validation and grid search hyperparameter Optimisation to make sure the model worked well. The results show that machine learning, especially ensemble tree-based methods, can accurately predict how well composite materials will wear, which speeds up the process of optimizing material design and cuts down on the cost of experiments. This study shows that combining artificial intelligence with traditional tribological characterization can improve the ability to predict how composite materials will behave in the future. It also sheds light on the relative importance of tribological operating parameters.

Dengue fever is a worldwide issue, especially in Yemen. Although early detection is critical to reducing dengue disease deaths, accurate dengue diagnosis requires a long time due to the numerous clinical examinations. Thus, this issue necessitates the development of a new diagnostic schema. The objective of this work is to develop a diagnostic model for the earlier diagnosis of dengue disease using Efficient Machine Learning Techniques (EMLT). This paper proposed prediction models for dengue disease based on EMLT. Five different efficient machine learning models, including K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC), Extra Tree Classifier (ETC), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). All classifiers are trained and tested on the dataset using 10-Fold Cross-Validation and Holdout Cross-Validation approaches. On a test set, all models were evaluated using different metrics: accuracy, F1-sore, Recall, Precision, AUC, and operating time. Based on the findings, the ETC model achieved the highest accuracy in Hold-out and 10-fold cross-validation, with 99.12 % and 99.03 %, respectively. In the Holdout cross-validation approach, we conclude that the best classifier with high accuracy is ETC, which achieved 99.12 %. Finally, the experimental results indicate that classifier performance in holdout cross-validation outperforms 10-fold cross-validation. Accordingly, the proposed dengue prediction system demonstrates its efficacy and effectiveness in assisting doctors in accurately predicting dengue disease.

Optimized machine learning models for predicting crown convergence of plateau mountain tunnels

Predicting Caregiver Burden in Multiple Myeloma: Insights from the Carmma Study Using Machine Learning Models

Background: Predicting the perioperative requirement for red blood cells (RBCs) transfusion in patients with the pelvic fracture may be challenging. In this study, we constructed a perioperative RBCs transfusion predictive model (ternary classifications) based on a machine learning algorithm.Materials and Methods: This study included perioperative adult patients with pelvic trauma hospitalized across six Chinese centers between September 2012 and June 2019. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to predict the need for perioperative RBCs transfusion, with data being split into training test (80%), which was subjected to 5-fold cross-validation, and test set (20%). The ability of the predictive transfusion model was compared with blood preparation based on surgeons' experience and other predictive models, including random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, and Gaussian naïve Bayes classifier models. Data of 33 patients from one of the hospitals were prospectively collected for model validation.Results: Among 510 patients, 192 (37.65%) have not received any perioperative RBCs transfusion, 127 (24.90%) received less-transfusion (RBCs < 4U), and 191 (37.45%) received more-transfusion (RBCs ≥ 4U). Machine learning-based transfusion predictive model produced the best performance with the accuracy of 83.34%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7967 compared with other methods (blood preparation based on surgeons' experience with the accuracy of 65.94%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.5704; the random forest method with an accuracy of 82.35%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7858; the gradient boosting decision tree with an accuracy of 79.41%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7742; the K-nearest neighbor with an accuracy of 53.92%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.3341). In the prospective dataset, it also had a food performance with accuracy 81.82%.Conclusion: This multicenter retrospective cohort study described the construction of an accurate model that could predict perioperative RBCs transfusion in patients with pelvic fractures.

Septic shock is a severe complication of acute pancreatitis (AP), often associated with poor prognosis. This study aims to analyze the clinical characteristics of patients with acute pancreatitis and develop an interpretable early prediction model for septic shock in these patients using machine learning (ML). The model is intended to assist emergency physicians in resource allocation and medical decision making. Data were collected from the MIMIC-IV 3.0 database. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set in a 7:3 ratio. Feature selection was performed using LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression. Subsequently, 10 ML models were developed: Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Neural Network, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor, Adaptive Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Category Boosting, and Support Vector Machine. To enhance and optimize model interpretability, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were employed. A total of 1032 patients with AP were included in this study, from which 31 variables were selected for model development. By comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis results between the training and test sets, the XGBoost model demonstrated a significant advantage over other models. SHAP analysis revealed that white blood cell count, total bilirubin (bilirubin total), and bicarbonate (HCO3 -) levels were the three most critical risk factors for the development of septic shock in patients with AP. ML approaches exhibited promising performance in predicting septic shock in patients with AP. These models may aid in guiding treatment decisions for patients with AP in the emergency department.

ObjectivesThis study was designed to explore and validate the value of different machine learning models based on ultrasound image-omics features in the preoperative diagnosis of lymph node metastasis in pancreatic cancer (PC).MethodsThis research involved 189 individuals diagnosed with PC confirmed by surgical pathology (training cohort: n = 151; test cohort: n = 38), including 50 cases of lymph node metastasis. Image-omics features were extracted from ultrasound images. After dimensionality reduction and screening, eight machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), extra trees (ET), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and multilayer perceptron (MLP), were used to establish image-omics models to predict lymph node metastasis in PC. The best omics prediction model was selected through ROC curve analysis. Machine learning models were used to analyze clinical features and determine variables to establish a clinical model. A combined model was constructed by combining ultrasound image-omics and clinical features. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and a nomogram were used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model.ResultsA total of 1561 image-omics features were extracted from ultrasound images. 15 valuable image-omics features were determined by regularization, dimension reduction, and algorithm selection. In the image-omics model, the LR model showed higher prediction efficiency and robustness, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.773 in the training set and an AUC of 0.850 in the test set. The clinical model constructed by the boundary of lesions in ultrasound images and the clinical feature CA199 (AUC = 0.875). The combined model had the best prediction performance, with an AUC of 0.872 in the training set and 0.918 in the test set. The combined model showed better clinical benefit according to DCA, and the nomogram score provided clinical prediction solutions.ConclusionThe combined model established with clinical features has good diagnostic ability and can be used to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with PC. It is expected to provide an effective noninvasive method for clinical decision-making, thereby improving the diagnosis and treatment of PC.