Intelligent Predictive Decision Support System for Condition-Based Maintenance

A SDSS combines database storage technologies, geographic information systems (GIS) and decision modeling into tools which can be used to address a wide variety of decision support areas (Eklund, Kirkby, and Pollitt, 1996). Recently, various emerging technologies in computer hardware and software such as speedy microprocessors, gigabit network connections, fast internet mapping servers along with Web-based technologies like extensible markup language (XML), Web services, etc provide promising opportunities to take the traditional spatial decision support systems one step further to provide easy-to-use, round-the-clock access to spatial data and decision support over the Web. Traditional DSS and Web-based spatial DSS can be further improved by integrating expert knowledge and utilizing intelligent software components (such as expert systems and intelligent agents) to emulate the human intelligence and decision making. These kinds of decision support systems are classified as intelligent decision support systems. The objective of this chapter is to discuss the development of an intelligent web-based spatial decision support system and demonstrate it with a case study for planning snow removal operations.

Intelligent decision support (IDS) systems leverage artificial intelligence techniques to generate recommendations that guide human users through the decision making phases of a task. However, a key challenge is that IDS systems are not perfect, and in complex real-world scenarios may produce suboptimal output or fail to work altogether. The field of explainable AI (XAI) has sought to develop techniques that improve the interpretability of black-box systems. While most XAI work has focused on single-classification tasks, the subfield of explainable AI planning (XAIP) has sought to develop techniques that make sequential decision making AI systems explainable to domain experts. Critically, prior work in applying XAIP techniques to IDS systems has assumed that the plan being proposed by the planner is always optimal, and therefore the action or plan being recommended as decision support to the user is always optimal. In this work, we examine novice user interactions with a non-robust IDS system – one that occasionally recommends suboptimal actions, and one that may become unavailable after users have become accustomed to its guidance. We introduce a new explanation type, subgoal-based explanations, for plan-based IDS systems, that supplements traditional IDS output with information about the subgoal toward which the recommended action would contribute. We demonstrate that subgoal-based explanations lead to improved user task performance in the presence of IDS recommendations, improve user ability to distinguish optimal and suboptimal IDS recommendations, and are preferred by users. Additionally, we demonstrate that subgoal-based explanations enable more robust user performance in the case of IDS failure, showing the significant benefit of training users for an underlying task with subgoal-based explanations.

Purpose This study aims to develop and validate a decision support system for diesel generator maintenance at KM. Bukit Siguntang through identifying critical parameters that affect maintenance needs, analyzing failure patterns and reliability levels of key components, and implementing a validated model to optimize maintenance strategies based on actual engine conditions. Methodology This study uses a mixed-method approach with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The research design is exploratory sequential mixed-method, which begins with a qualitative stage to identify parameters and decision-making criteria, followed by a quantitative stage for model development and system validation. The collected data were analyzed using the Descriptive Statistical Analysis method, Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Analysis. Findings The results showed a decrease in the number of unplanned failures by 57.1% and a reduction in downtime by 53.8% indicating a substantial increase in system reliability. This contributed to an increase in diesel generator availability from 94.2% to 97.3%, which is very important for ship operations. Originality This study successfully developed and validated a decision support system for diesel generator maintenance at KM. Bukit Siguntang by identifying 11 critical parameters that affect maintenance needs and analyzing failure patterns and reliability of critical components.

-In industrial plants, the profitability of the plant is significantly affected by the quality of machines maintenance. To ensure continuous production, the high valued machines should be kept in good working conditions. This brings plants to search for means to control and reduce equipment failures. When faults emerge in plants, appropriate actions for fault diagnosis and troubleshooting must be executed promptly and effectively to prevent large costs due to breakdowns. To provide reliable and effective maintenance support, the aid of advanced decision support technology utilizing previous repair experience is of crucial importance for the expert operators as it provides them valuable troubleshooting clues for new faults. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, particularly, knowledge-based approach is promising for this domain. It captures efficiency of problem solving expertise from the domain experts; guides the expert operators in rapid fault detection and troubleshooting. This paper focuses on the design and development of a Knowledge-Intensive Decision Support System (KI-DSS) for Maintenance, Repair and Service in industrial plants to support better maintenance decision and improve maintenance efficiency. With integration of case-based Reasoning and ontology, the Ki- DSS not only carries out data matching retrieval, but also performs semantic associated data access which is important for intelligent knowledge retrieval in decision support system. A case is executed to illustrate the use of the proposed KI-DSS to show the feasibility of our approach and the benefit of the ontology support.

To solve the problem of maintenance deficiency and surplus emerges in the ship schedule maintenance mode, we developed intelligent condition-based maintenance decision support system. We adopted a multi-parameters synthetic condition assessment model based on fuzzy theory and set up a fault diagnosis model in terms of reasoning machine based on expert knowledge. Then the results from the above models may help the managers to make a maintenance decision. All of these operations were completed with the assistance of the data base. The software was programmed with C++ Builder as the basic tool. As a general platform, the system has integrated functions of condition assessment, fault diagnosis and maintenance decision. On the basis of the support system, we can inspect and maintain the ship or part of that effectively and economically.

In order to improve the effect of precision intelligent agricultural decision support system, this paper combines big data technology to carry out precision mining of agricultural data, and combines decision tree algorithm to carry out data classification processing. Moreover, this paper obtains the most effective agricultural decision reference data through data mining, combines the agricultural decision support process to set the functional modules of the decision system, and analyzes the implementation process of each functional module. In addition, this paper studies the theoretical basis and key technologies of the agricultural production structure optimisation decision support system, and builds a precision and intelligent agricultural decision support system based on big data analysis. The system mainly performs accurate processing of agricultural data and makes effective predictions, and then makes scientific decision results. Finally, this paper verifies the structure of the model in this paper combined with experimental analysis. From the comparison of experiments, it can be seen that the precision and intelligent agricultural decision support system constructed in this paper has significant effects.

Introduction. Based on the analysis, it was found that there is a need to develop tools for managing conflicts between stakeholders in projects for the creation and development of medical facilities. These projects are characterized by complex relationships between government agencies, medical staff, NGOs, patients, and investors, that have their own interests, contradicting each other. The main scientific and applied challenge is the lack of a structured approach to reconciling the interests of stakeholders, high level of conflict, lack of transparency in decision-making processes, and insufficient use of quantitative methods for assessing management effectiveness. The lack of tools for managing conflicts leads to delays in project implementation, inefficient use of resources, and dissatisfaction of stakeholders.Purpose. To substantiate the structure of the process of managing conflicts between stakeholders in projects for the creation and development of medical institutions, which will allow timely alignment of the interests of project stakeholders, reduce the level of conflicts, and ensure effective project implementation, taking into account the specifics of the medical sector.Methods. The study uses a systematic approach, which includes an analysis of scientific research on project management and conflicts in the medical field. Based on the methods of classification and generalization, the main indicators of the effectiveness of conflict management are identified, and approaches to planning and implementing conflict management processes are summarized. To analyze the relationships between the indicators, correlation analysis, construction of dependency graphs, and regression analysis was used. The practical part of the study is based on the example of projects of medical institutions in Lviv region, for which a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of managing conflicts between stakeholders was carried out.Results. The main stakeholders of projects for the creation and development of medical institutions are identified. Seven main types of stakeholders were identified. Based on the analysis of their interests and contradictions, the structure of the process of managing contradictions and conflicts was substantiated, which consists of five management operations providing analysis of stakeholder interests, identification of potential contradictions and conflicts, planning of the process of managing contradictions and conflicts, implementation of the plan for managing contradictions and conflicts and determining the effectiveness of the process of managing contradictions and conflicts. The proposed structure enables reconciliation of the interests of stakeholders, reduce the number and level of conflicts, and ensure the effective implementation of projects for the creation and development of medical institutions. For the practical implementation of the substantiated process, the author quantifies eight indicators that provide an objective assessment of the effectiveness of managing conflicts between stakeholders in projects for the creation and development of medical institutions and the validity of decision-making. Based on the use of the developed toolkit, a quantitative assessment of medical projects implemented in the Lviv region was carried out. It was found that the conflict index of the projects ranged from 2.0 to 2.5, the level of risks - from 15% to 40%, the consolidated efficiency index - from 0.5 to 0.826, and the level of goal achievement - from 66.6% to 83.3%. The highest performance indicators were achieved in the outpatient clinic opening project, which indicates the effectiveness of stakeholder alignment.Conclusions and proposals. The obtained results indicate that the proposed structure of the conflict management process is an effective tool for aligning the interests of stakeholders and ensuring the successful implementation of projects for the creation and development of medical institutions. Implementation of this process structure will reduce the number of contradictions and the level of conflicts between stakeholders, optimize the use of resources, and increase their satisfaction. Further research is needed to integrate modern information technologies, such as artificial intelligence and intelligent decision support systems, into the process of managing stakeholder conflicts in healthcare facility creation and development projects.

The object of the study is the clinical decision-making process for selecting of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment method based on the patient's medical data. The process of the HCC treatment method selection remains poorly formalized and is characterized by multi-criteria and the presence of numerous clinical situations, for each of which it is necessary to promptly identify the most accurate therapeutic solution. This study develops an intelligent medical decision support system for HCC treatment method selection based on knowledge applicable in clinical practice. It offers architectural and functional principles of the intelligent decision support system, classifying clinical situations by HCC treatment method, consisting of multiple possible combinations of 44 informative parameters. Based on the current values of these parameters, expert knowledge is transformed into production rules identifying HCC treatment methods. A heuristic procedure treatment selection is developed based on production rule analysis in accordance with current parameter values, reproducing the reasoning patterns of participants in a multidisciplinary council during their consensus decision-making process regarding HCC treatment appointment. A software implementation of a decision-making model for HCC treatment selection, implemented in C# using the Visual Study 2019 platform, enabled the integration of an intelligent system with web technologies. The intelligent medical decision support system automates the unique experience of professionals and helps physicians in a multidisciplinary consultation make prompt and informed decisions online regarding the appointment of personalized therapy. The system was piloted with expert physicians in several iterations until complete match between the consensus decision of the multidisciplinary council and the decision made by the developed system in accordance with clinical recommendations was achieved

The prediction of the permanent deformation and respective accuracy in the subgrade is one of the main concerns of the Railway Infrastructure managers to reduce the maintenance costs and operations. This paper purposes a new methodology regarding the prediction of the permanent deformation based on a parametric study performed using a hybrid methodology that includes the short and long-term performance. In this parametric study, the dynamic mechanism was considered as well as several important factors with impact on the stress levels and permanent deformations: wavelength of the unevenness profile, type of railway structure, train speed, mechanical properties of the subgrade and the geometric position of the analysis in the track development direction. This extensive parametric study allowed building a robust database used to predict the permanent deformation induced by the passage of the train. This database feeds a neural network model whose performance was evaluated based on different metrics: Mean Absolute error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), standard deviation, and regression coefficient (R). Moreover, to show the ability of the model, it will be tested and validated based on published experimental results from a physical modelling of ballasted and ballastless tracks. Its results show that the developed model is rapid and efficient to predict accurately the permanent deformation induced by the passage of the train. It can have the potential to be further implemented in a computational decision support system for railway track maintenance and renewal management, instead of conventional corrective maintenance and renewal.KeywordsNeural networkPermanent deformationPredictionInfrastructureLife-cycle management

The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence technology has led to the victory of AlphaGo, making people see the hope of intelligent military command decision support system. However, battlefield is quite complex, while chessboard is significantly abstracted. It is impossible to copy its method directly, as machine learning from observations directly to orders, or from orders directly to results is too difficult. This paper attempts to decompose the problem of intelligent command decision support system into more specific problems, and analyze which type of AI methods suit which problems, through the local technology breakthrough to achieve the overall level of intelligence to enhance, with a certain guiding significance to development of intelligent command decision support system.

Purpose: Urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UC) is the 4th most common solid malignancy in men and 5th most common overall with an estimated 70,000 new cases of UC and over 14,000 deaths from the disease expected in 2010 in the United States. Although the majority of patients with invasive UC present without radiographic or clinical evidence of disease beyond the bladder, up to 56% of patients die from the result of occult metastasis not detected by current staging modalities. The potential of microRNAs (miRs) as novel tumor markers has been the focus of recent scrutiny because of their tissue specificity, stability, and association with clinicopathological parameters. Prognostic tools based on conventional clinical and pathologic staging can quantify the risk of death from UC, but their accuracy is imperfect due to the heterogeneous biologic behavior of tumors and/or patients with similar clinical and pathologic features. Use of biomarkers specific to the tumor and/or patient can provide prognostic utility over that available from routine clinical features. Data have emerged documenting altered systemic miRs expression across a spectrum of cancers, thus the potential to rapidly screen individuals by analyzing miRs from serum collected by venipuncture is minimally invasive and reproducible and may identify reliable tools for screening or early detection of UC. Our aim was to assess the expression of all known and predicted non-coding RNAs species, contrasting the miRs in the circulation of patients with superficial or invasive UCs or without any cancerous disease, to determine whether we can identify systemic miRs as screening tools for bladder cancer. Patients and Methods: Whole blood samples were prospectively collected from preoperative cancer (n=20) or non-cancerous patients (n=18), with similar age and sex distribution. Total RNA was isolated from plasma, and hybridized with MDACC custom-made non-coding RNAs (ncRNA) arrays, yielding 19200 measurement values per patient. We used the freely available biostatistics suite Bioconductor together with custom algorithms in R for all preprocessing steps and the biomarker optimization. The best biomarker combines two potentially contradictory features: high accuracy and low number of predictors. Several statistical and machine learning methods were tested for developing intelligent clinical decision support systems for diagnosis prediction: random forests of classification trees, nearest shrunken centroids, and logistic regression. For all of them, we applied appropriate techniques to estimate the generalization performance of the obtained classifiers (bootstrapping for the random forests, cross-validation for the other two methods). Results: Screening for differentially expressed miRs by applying t-tests and subsequently computing false discovery rates identified 79 miRs at that are likely to be systematically dysregulated (local FDR < 0.5) in serum of UC patients. None of these 79, however, suffices by itself to distinguish UC cases from control patients. This demonstrates the need for multivariate biomarkers that cleverly combine the expression levels of several miRs into a single prognostic figure. The three classification methods that we used to find such combinations were compared for their predictive accuracy. The logistic regression (LR), preceeded by a coarse unsupervised filtering of miRs, turned out to be the most accurate algorithm in this application scenario. In a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) it was able to predict the presence or absence of bladder cancer correctly in 87% of cases, based on the expression levels of 568 miRs and the gender of the patients. We also applied LR to separate invasive BC from other cases (which could be either superficial BC or normal), where we achieved 92% LOO-CV accuracy. For the 3-way classification problem, the accuracy was 79%. Investigation of the computational results suggests that the analysis of a larger data set could likely lead to more accurate classifiers based on fewer miRs. We observe a relatively high prognostic utility of the gender, roughly on par with that of the most informative miRs, which is not surprising given the vast difference of incidences of UCs in males and females. Conclusion: These findings suggest that invasive UCs display specific systemic miR profiles, which could aid in discriminating among other pathologies usually encountered at similar age groups of patients. This finding is of notable clinical consequence and predicts unlimited potential for impacting clinical practice patterns by directing appropriate management of this disease and reducing death from UC. The use of reliable markers also has the potential for reducing the cost of health care delivery by improving and streamlining surveillance protocols, and by personalizing the therapy.

This paper describes an intelligent fuzzy decision support system for real-time scheduling and dispatching of parts in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS), with alternative routing possibilities for all parts. A fuzzy logic approach is developed to improve the system performance by considering multiple performance measures and at multiple decision points. The characteristics of the system status, instead of parts, are fed back to assign priority to the parts waiting to be processed. A simulation model is developed and it is shown that the proposed intelligent fuzzy decision support system keeps all performance measures at a good level. The proposed intelligent system is a promising tool for dealing with scheduling FMSs, in contrast to traditional rules.

Background: COPD is a chronic disease characterized by frequent exacerbations that require hospitalization, significantly increasing the care burden. In recent years, the use of artificial intelligence-based tools to improve the management of patients with COPD has progressed, but the prediction of readmission has been less explored. In fact, in the state of the art, no models specifically designed to make medium-term readmission predictions (2-3 months after admission) have been found. This work presents a new intelligent clinical decision support system to predict the risk of hospital readmission in 90 days in patients with COPD after an episode of acute exacerbation. Methods: The system is structured in two levels: the first one consists of three machine learning algorithms -Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Multilayer Perceptron-that operate concurrently to predict the risk of readmission; the second level, an expert system based on a fuzzy inference engine that combines the generated risks, determining the final prediction. The employed database includes more than five hundred patients with demographic, clinical, and social variables. Prior to building the model, the initial dataset was divided into training and test subsets. In order to reduce the high dimensionality of the problem, filter-based feature selection techniques were employed, followed by recursive feature selection supported by the use of the Random Forest algorithm, guaranteeing the usability of the system and its potential integration into the clinical environment. After training the models in the first level, the knowledge base of the expert system was determined on the training data subset using the Wang-Mendel automatic rule generation algorithm. Results: Preliminary results obtained on the test set are promising, with an AUC of approximately 0.8. At the selected cutoff point, a sensitivity of 0.67 and a specificity of 0.75 were achieved. Conclusions: This highlights the system's future potential for the early identification of patients at risk of readmission. For future implementation in clinical practice, an extensive clinical validation process will be required, along with the expansion of the database, which will likely contribute to improving the system's robustness and generalization capacity.

To survey person centered survival rate in population based screening program by an intelligent clinical decision support system. Colorectal cancer is the most common malignancy and major cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Colorectal cancer is the sixth leading cause of cancer death in Iran. In this survey, we used cosine similarity as data mining technique and intelligent system for estimating survival of at risk groups in the screening plan. In the first step, we determined minimum data set (MDS). MDS was approved by experts and reviewing literatures. In the second step, MDS were coded by python language and matched with cosine similarityformula. Finally, survival rate by percent was illustrated in the user interface of national intelligent system. The national intelligent system was designed in PyCharm environment. Main data elements of intelligent system consist demographic information, age, referral type, risk group, recommendation and survival rate. Minimum data set related to survival comprise of clinical status, past medical history and socio-demographic information. Information of the covered population as a comprehensive database was connected to intelligent system and survival rate estimated for each patient. Mean range of survival of HNPCC patients and FAP patients were respectively 77.7% and 75.1%. Also, the mean range of the survival rate and other calculations have changed with the entry of new patients in the CRC registry by real-time. National intelligent system monitors the entire of risk group and reports survival rates by electronic guidelines and data mining technique and also operates according to the clinical process. This web base software has a critical role in the estimation survival rate in order to health care planning.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death worldwide. Health remote monitoring systems (HRMSs) play a crucial role in managing COPD patients by identifying anomalies in their biometric signs and alerting healthcare professionals. By analyzing the relationships between biometric signs and environmental factors, it is possible to develop artificial intelligence models that are capable of inferring patients’ future health deterioration risks. In this research work, we review recent works in this area and develop an intelligent clinical decision support system (CIDSS) that is capable of providing early information concerning patient health evolution and risk analysis in order to support the treatment of COPD patients. The present work’s CIDSS is composed of two main modules: the vital signs prediction module and the early warning score calculation module, which generate the patient health information and deterioration risks, respectively. Additionally, the CIDSS generates alerts whenever a biometric sign measurement falls outside the allowed range for a patient or in case a basal value changes significantly. Finally, the system was implemented and assessed in a real case and validated in clinical terms through an evaluation survey answered by healthcare professionals involved in the project. In conclusion, the CIDSS proves to be a useful and valuable tool for medical and healthcare professionals, enabling proactive intervention and facilitating adjustments to the medical treatment of patients.