Kīpuka Kuleana: restoring relationships to place and strengthening climate adaptation through a community-based land trust

Mapping Climate in the 21st Century

Climate change adaptation and mitigation and historic centers preservation. Underway and repeatable technological design solutions

Older adults are the fastest-growing age group in the U.S. and desire to age at home. However, many reside in places increasingly exposed to climate change-fueled disasters. The Aging in Risky Environmental Areas (AREA) Study is a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling adults ages 50+ queried in November 2022 on aging, disaster exposure, and climate change. We conducted bivariate analyses and multivariate linear regression to examine the association between disaster exposure in the past 3 years and scores on the Disaster Adaptation and Resilience Scale (DARS), adjusting for sociodemographics and healthy aging indicators. Among 1,504 participants, 40.3% were exposed to ≥ 2 climate-related disasters. Total disaster exposure (p = 0.002), any indirect exposure (p < 0.001), and any direct exposure (p = 0.005) were all negatively associated with total disaster resilience. Total disaster exposure was also negatively associated with DARS subscales of social resources (p = 0.003), distress regulation (p < 0.001), and optimism (p = 0.006). In the final model, disaster exposure was not associated with resilience. Several healthy aging variables were associated, including place attachment (b = 3.28, p < 0.001); time spent on social and leisure activities (b = 1.23, p < 0.001); loneliness (b = -0.47, p < 0.001); cognitive impairment (b = -8.28, p < 0.001); depression (b = -5.47, p = 0.002); and psychological distress (b = -0.88, p < 0.001). Results show that while disaster exposure is associated with worse resilience, healthy aging can supersede this while facing more frequent and intense climate-related disasters.

Producing targeted climate information at the local scale, including major sources of climate change projection uncertainty for diverse emissions scenarios, is essential to support climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the first chain of computationally efficient Earth System Model (ESM) emulators allowing to rapidly translate greenhouse gas emission pathways into spatially resolved annual-mean temperature anomaly field time series, accounting for both forced climate response and natural variability uncertainty at the local scale. By combining the global-mean, emissions-driven emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, ESM-specific as well as constrained probabilistic emulated ensembles can be derived. This emulation chain can hence build on and extend large multi-ESM ensembles such as the ones produced within the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The main extensions are threefold. (i) A more thorough sampling of the forced climate response and the natural variability uncertainty is possible with millions of emulated realizations being readily created. (ii) The same uncertainty space can be sampled for any emission pathway, which is not the case in CMIP6, where some of the most societally relevant strong mitigation scenarios have been run by only a small number of ESMs. (iii) Other lines of evidence to constrain future projections, including observational constraints, can be introduced, which helps to refine projected future ranges beyond the multi-ESM ensemble's estimates. In addition to presenting results from the coupled MAGICC-MESMER emulator chain, we carry out an extensive validation of MESMER, which is trained on and applied to multiple emission pathways for the first time in this study. The newly developed MAGICC-MESMER coupled emulator will allow unprecedented assessments of the implications of manifold emissions pathways at regional scale.

By the end of the 1980s public opinion became aware of the possible threat of global climate change caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. Researchers of different scientific disciplines started warning that the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases like for instance carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) might cause irreversible changes to the global climate system in the future. If nothing is undertaken to curb greenhouse gas emissions today, global climate change might place a considerable burden upon future generations, especially in developing countries. In the first section we review some of the scientific evidence for past and projected future climate change. The emphasis will be on the extreme long-term perspective of the greenhouse problem. As such, the greenhouse problem definitely classifies as a “time bomb” which is passed on from the current generation to many generations to come. We also address the issue of the distribution of the cost of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and review the current status of the international climate policy negotiations, in particular the ratification status of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Section two concentrates on a normative framework for the greenhouse problem and analyzes this from an ‘ideal’ (cf. Rawls) point of view. We shall defend in this section our preferential option for the poor and develop a welfare-theoretic framework that starts from the preference option for the poor and is close in spirit to the Rawlsian difference principle. Within this framework, arguments of historic responsibility and past emissions cannot be used as basis for the distribution of climate change mitigation or adaptation efforts.

Early forest thinning changes aboveground carbon distribution among pools, but not total amount

In recent decades, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to heatwaves becoming significantly more intense, many of which resulting in substantial impacts on human health. In 2009, the state of Victoria, Australia, experienced several days of maximum temperatures soaring 12-15°C above the climatological mean and a considerable rise in excess heat-related human mortality. We attempt to directly quantify the heat-related human fatalities of the 2009 heatwave attributable to anthropogenic climate change. For our analysis, we focus on changes in return values of the heat-related death toll. Furthermore, we use a combination of two types of modeling tools. The first is a collection of large initial-condition ensembles of atmosphere-only model simulations from the weather@home/ANZ and C20C+ D&A projects as well as large initial-condition ensembles of simulations from models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. For the attribution assessment we compare factual model outcomes from year-2009 era periods from historical simulations to counterfactual outcomes. The second modeling tool is an empirical function linking heat-related human deaths to exceedance of temperature percentile thresholds. This function categorizes heatwave days based on three consecutive percentile windows starting at the 95th, 97.5th, and the 99th percentile, respectively. The climate-mortality model combinations show considerable agreement with most models attributing approximately one third of excess heat-related deaths during conditions comparable to the 2009 Victoria heatwave to anthropogenic climate change. Our analysis indicates that without substantial climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, to reduce exposure and vulnerability, further increases in heat-related mortality risk are to be expected.

SummaryNuclear power plants provide clean, carbon free, stable, reliable electricity and can offer nonelectric products and services via cogeneration operations to multiple sectors. This contributes to decarbonization of the current energy and industrial systems, supports climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts and ensures sustainable development over the long term, according to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) framework and the provisions of the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21) Paris Agreement, 2015. This work surveys the potential role of nuclear cogeneration projects in meeting these objectives based on the current technological landscape. It focuses on nuclear assisted desalination for freshwater production and electrolytic hydrogen production as the use cases and suggests an assessment framework for their holistic evaluation. New integrated metrics and multi‐criteria performance indicators beyond the levelized cost of production are developed to quantify the likely multi‐dimensional impacts of such projects. The use of these for screening alternatives illustrates the fact that depending on weightage given to different criteria, different technologies may appear to be better suited to deployment under given set of conditions. These metrics are expected to be useful for creation of a decision support system for deployment of nuclear cogeneration projects.

The Brazilian agricultural sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, but climate-smart practices combined with degraded land restoration can result in a more resilient landscape contributing to integrated climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The Sustainable Rural Development Program of Rio de Janeiro (RIO RURAL) has been supporting the transition of degraded rural areas to sustainable productive systems by providing technical assistance and incentives to small-scale family farmers. RIO RURAL promotes reforestation and sustainable agriculture practices, which can boost productivity as well as carbon stocks in the agricultural landscape. Using estimates of carbon mitigation potential for such practices, we identified methodologies eligible for certification in the voluntary markets. We estimated transaction, implementation, and certification costs and calculated potential revenues associated with RIO RURAL’s activities. This did not only allow us to discuss the constraints and identify opportunities and co-benefits from RIO RURAL’s contribution to climate mitigation, adaptation, and environmental integrity but also to food security as it targets family farms. We propose a bundling approach to carbon, where multiple benefits are measured and certified including water, food systems, as well as social and cultural benefits. This would allow accessing resources from both mitigation and adaptation programs in addition to markets that value ecosystem integrity as well as water and food security.

Mobilizing domestic resources is crucial for developing countries to finance their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study examines various tax policy measures that developing countries can utilize to mobilize domestic resources for climate change finance. The study draws on the reviewed literature and case studies to suggest that carbon pricing mechanisms, tax incentives for sustainable investments, taxation of environmentally harmful activities, and tax administration and state capacity are all important aspects of tax policy that can contribute to mobilizing domestic resources for climate change finance. Researchers and practitioners will find this study useful in supporting policymakers in developing countries to develop and implement effective domestic resource mobilization strategies that could help address the impact of climate change.

Small island developing States (SIDS) are acutely vulnerable to the climate crisis. Substantial and persistent social protection gaps continue to hold SIDS back and limit their resilience. This ILO brief outlines some of the different ways that social protection can help SIDS experience a just transition by supporting and enabling equitable climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts everywhere. Crucially, it asserts that social protection systems are an essential element for addressing loss and damage in SIDS. The publication also examines strategies to fill social protection financing gaps and highlights that SIDS are not impotent to build or further enhance their social protection systems.

7 - Understanding responses to climate change: Psychological barriers to mitigation and a new theory of behavioral choice

Residents of African municipalities exhibit a lengthy and varied history of coping with conditions of pervasive precarity and uncertainty in the context of an unevenly present state. The climate crisis compounds these challenges. Based on case studies from across the continent, this introduction to the Special Issue on the Politics of Climate Action in Africa’s Cities presents research oriented around questions of “do-it-yourself” urbanism, sustainable development, and climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts undertaken by socio-economically vulnerable citizens. It offers insight into how the urban poor respond to ongoing urban climate crises, the variable roles of an absent, ineffectual, or inattentive state, and the unequal power relations undergirding sustainability discourse and practice. It draws on a cross-regional comparative perspective that centres conversations about urban theory and development in a (urban) world succumbing to mounting pressures from climate change, environmental precarity, and pervasive inequities.

Purpose: To determine whether perceived importance of local climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts differs according to social or medical factors among residents of impacted communities.Methods: An online survey was conducted among residents of California (Los Angeles/Orange), Florida (Miami-Dade/Broward), and Arizona (Maricopa) counties in July 2018 (n=605). Multivariable ordered logistic regression measured associations between the perceived importance of adaptation/mitigation approaches and income, race/ethnicity, and health conditions, controlling for age, political party, and county.Results: Lower income was associated with higher perceived importance of improved emergency alerts, government-subsidized costs of household air conditioners and energy-efficient appliances, strengthening buildings against extreme weather, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning using “cooling” technologies, and expanding community gardens/local agriculture. Black respondents perceived evacuation services for those with financial barriers during extreme weather, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, and communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation as significantly more important compared to non-Black, non-Hispanic respondents. Hispanic respondents perceived significantly greater importance of improved emergency alerts and health care access during extreme weather, evacuation services for residents without transportation, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation efforts, and intergovernmental cooperation on mitigation compared to non-Hispanic respondents.Conclusions: Perceptions of the importance of specific local climate actions differ according to race/ethnicity and income. Community engagement is recommended to help local decisions reflect priorities of the most affected residents.

Peatlands are critical ecosystems for climate change mitigation due to their substantial soil organic carbon (C) stocks, which have accumulated over millennia. Although they cover only 3% of the Earth's land surface, peatlands store a third of the world's soil C, exceeding the C stored in forests and the atmosphere combined. However, these ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, which threaten their ability to function as net C sinks.The Pyrenean peatlands, located at the intersection of Euro-Siberian and Mediterranean bioclimatic zones, are particularly vulnerable. Over the last 50 years, the Pyrenees have experienced a 1.2°C increase in average temperature and a significant reduction in snow cover, both of which are likely to affect plant community composition and accelerate peat decomposition, with uncertain consequences for C dynamics. Despite their ecological importance, Pyrenean peatlands remain understudied, with critical gaps in our knowledge of their extent, C content, and response to climate pressures, particularly in terms of C accumulation.To fill these gaps, we quantified C stocks and the net C balance (net ecosystem production) in three peatlands located in the Catalan Central Pyrenees. By combining peat depth measurements, kriging interpolation, C content analysis, and 210Pb-age modelling, we estimated C stocks, C inputs, decomposition rates, and C accumulation rates over the past century in these systems. To provide new insights into the influence of vegetation in C accumulation, we accounted for plant community heterogeneity by differentiating between peatland habitats when estimating C fluxes. Results showed that short-term C accumulation rates ranged from 0.56 to 2.7 g C m-2 yr-1, with an average of 1.1 g C m-2 yr-1. The C stored in these peatlands over the past 40 years varied from 4.8 to 7.0 kg C m-2, highlighting a strong dependence on plant community composition.Our results improved our understanding of how vegetation variability influences C accumulation in peatlaands, allowing for more precise scaling of C stocks and net C balance. This contributes to a broader understanding of C dynamics in alpine peatlands, highlighting their current and future role in climate change mitigation. These insights provide a scientific basis for the development of conservation and management policies aimed to protect these unique ecosystems, ensuring their continued contribution to both climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.