Long-Term Trajectory Prediction of Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Based on Physics-Informed Transformer

Current vehicle trajectory prediction methods often fail to capture the complex spatial and temporal interactions among surrounding vehicles in dynamic environments, leading to suboptimal prediction accuracy. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel Transformer-based model for vehicle trajectory prediction, denoted as the Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Interaction-aware Transformer Network (DSTIFormer). The three main parts of the DSTIFormer architecture are a spatial-temporal embedding module, a spatial-temporal dynamics interaction-aware module, and a trajectory encoderdecoder module. The spatial-temporal embedding module aims to encode vehicular trajectory interactions into latent representations that simultaneously preserve spatial dependencies and temporal features. The second module utilizes a temporal transformer network (TTN) along with a spatial graph transformer network (STN) to capture the dynamic spatial-temporal interactions between vehicles. To make trajectory predictions more accurate, the third module uses a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) architecture as the encoder and an attention-based decoder layer to effectively extract the long-range sequential dependencies in the process. The model's prediction accuracy with the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric on two publicly available datasets: NGSIM and HighD, and the results demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms several benchmark methods in long-term prediction.

Aiming at the problems of large simplification and low accuracy of traditional trajectory prediction models, combined with the characteristics of time sequence, continuity, and interactivity of UUV trajectories, an unknown UUV trajectory prediction method based on a gated unit recursive (GRU) neural network model is proposed. The MinMaxScaler method is used to normalize the trajectory data; in order to improve the prediction accuracy, the adaptive parameter adjustment algorithm and adam algorithm are used to optimize the network structure of the established GRU-based trajectory prediction model, without human intervention for parameter adjustment. Finally, the trajectory prediction accuracy of GRU trajectory prediction model and BP trajectory prediction model are analyzed through simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the root mean square error is about 3.96m on the x-axis and 1.00m on the y-axis. The trajectory prediction model based on GRU has faster prediction speed and higher prediction accuracy for unknown UUV trajectory after bearings-only detection.

In the rapidly evolving global shipping industry, accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for effective maritime traffic management. However, the inherent uncertainties in vessel voyages pose significant challenges for existing methods in achieving precise long-term predictions. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs) in natural language processing, we propose SEMINT—a novel framework that integrates SEMantic cognition and INTent context-awareness for long-term vessel trajectory prediction. SEMINT leverages LLMs to semantically interpret vessel navigation behaviors and infer multiple voyage intents. The final intent inference is derived from the consensus among multiple reasoning chains, which are then combined with historical preferences to form an intent context. Guided by this context, a Transformer-based trajectory prediction model captures the dependencies between critical waypoints and voyage intent, thereby achieving stable long-term numerical predictions. SEMINT combines the advantages of LLMs and task-specific deep learning models, transforming voyage uncertainties into high-level intent diversity and simplifying the learning process for long-term movement patterns. Experiments on real-world datasets show that SEMINT outperforms previous methods, reducing average and final displacement errors by 28.47% and 31.59%, respectively.

Non-probability sampling network based on anomaly pedestrian trajectory discrimination for pedestrian trajectory prediction

Abstract. Long-term human path forecasting in crowds is critical for autonomous moving platforms (like autonomous driving cars and social robots) to avoid collision and make high-quality planning. It is not easy for prediction systems to successfully take into account social interactions and predict a distribution of future possible path in a highly interactive and dynamic circumstance. In this paper, we develop a data-driven model for long-term trajectory prediction, which naturally takes into account social interactions through a spatio-temporal graph representation and predicts multi-modes of future trajectories. Different from generative adversarial network (GAN) based models which generate samples and then provide distributions of samples, we use mixture density functions to describe human motion and intuitively map the distribution of future path with explicit densities. To prevent the model from collapsing into a single mode and truly capture the intrinsic multi-modality, we further use a Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss instead of computing loss over all modes. Extensive experiments over several trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate that our method is able to capture the multi-modality of human motion and forecast the distributions of plausible futures in complex scenarios.

Data-driven trajectory prediction with weather uncertainties: A Bayesian deep learning approach

The 4D trajectory is a multi-dimensional time series with plentiful spatial-temporal features and has a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. Aiming at these features of aircraft flight trajectory and the problem that it is difficult for existing trajectory prediction methods to extract spatial-temporal features from the trajectory data at the same time, we propose a novel 4D trajectory prediction hybrid architecture based on deep learning, which combined Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). An 1D convolution is used to extract the spatial dimension feature of the trajectory, and LSTM is used to mine the temporal dimension feature of the trajectory. Hence the high-precision prediction of the 4D trajectory is realized based on the sufficient fusion of the above features. We use real Automatic Dependent Surveillance -Broadcast (ADS-B) historical trajectory data for experiments and compare the proposed method with a single LSTM model and BP model on the same data set. The experimental results show that the trajectory prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM hybrid model is superior to a single model. The prediction error is reduced by an average of 21.62% compared to the LSTM model and by an average of 52.45% compared to the BP model. It provides a certain reference for the trajectory prediction research and Air Traffic Management decision-making.

In order to solve the problem of an uncertain initial state and big errors for hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) tracking, a hybrid model algorithm is proposed by combining a single model algorithm with a multiple model algorithm. To develop the tracking algorithm with the Cubature Kalman filter, in every model filter the process equation is established based on the HGV aerodynamic model and the measurement equation is established based on the radar measurement principle. The proposed hybrid model algorithm is developed by using the multiple model algorithm in the initial tracking stage and using the single model algorithm in the stable tracking stage, and they are divided by a proposed parameter. The former can avoid divergence and reduce the errors caused by the uncertain initial state. The latter can track the HGV at higher accuracy. The simulation indicates that the proposed hybrid model has high speed accuracy in the whole tracking stage and high position accuracy in the stable tracking stage. The average position root mean square error (RMSE) using the hybrid model algorithm is almost the same as that using the single model algorithm but the average speed RMSE using the single model algorithm is about 30% greater than that using the hybrid model algorithm. In a system for defending the HGV, the speed accuracy has more effect on the trajectory prediction as time goes on. Thus, the hybrid model algorithm is an engineering algorithm for HGVs with high accuracy. In future research, the hybrid model algorithm will be studied for general maneuvering target tracking.

In vehicle trajectory prediction, constructing the interactive relationships among vehicles within the traffic environment poses a significant challenge. Existing models predominantly focus on temporal dependencies within vehicle histories and spatial correlations among neighboring vehicles, overlooking the continuous influence of historical vehicle states on the current time step and the interplay of multiple sequences over time. To address these limitations, we propose a method for multimodal vehicle trajectory prediction that integrates Hybrid Time-step Scene Interaction (HTSI) into the spatiotemporal relationships. Firstly, we introduce the HTSI module, comprising Multi-step Temporal Information Aggregation (MTIA) and Single-step Temporal Information Aggregation (STIA) methods. MTIA utilizes multi-head attention mechanisms to capture temporal dependencies between consecutive frames, thereby generating new time series amalgamating the ongoing influence of historical time states on the current timestamp. Simultaneously, STIA employs multi-head attention mechanisms to capture the spatial dimension weights of multiple time series and, by aggregating spatial interaction features at each timestamp, generates new time series fused with spatial interaction influences. Subsequently, feature extraction is performed through LSTM layers. Moreover, we propose an improved DIPM pooling module, improving the model’s long-term prediction capability by selectively reusing historical hidden states. Ultimately, based on training results from the HighD and NGSIM datasets, our model demonstrates significant advantages in long-term prediction compared to other state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Specifically, within the 5 s prediction window, the model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.79 m on the NGSIM dataset, representing a 33.62% improvement over the baseline model’s average accuracy. Additionally, on the HighD dataset, the model attained an RMSE of 2.16 m, reflecting a 33.43% enhancement. The crucial code can be obtained from the provided link: https://github.com/gyhhq/Prediction-trajectory .

Long-term prediction for railway track geometry based on an optimised DNN method

Aircraft trajectory prediction is a challenging problem in air traffic control, especially for conflict detection. Traditional trajectory predictors require a variety of inputs such as flight-plans, aircraft performance models, meteorological forecasts, etc. Many of these data are subjected to environmental uncertainties. Further, limited information about such inputs, especially the lack of aircraft tactical intent, makes trajectory prediction a challenging task. In this work, we propose a deep learning model that performs trajectory prediction by modeling and incorporating aircraft tactical intent. The proposed model adopts the encoder-decoder architecture and makes use of the convolutional layer as well as Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). The proposed model does not require explicit information about aircraft performance and wind data. Results demonstrate that the provision of enriched aircraft intent, together with appropriate model design, could improve the prediction error up to 30% at a prediction horizon of 10 minutes (from 4.9 nautical miles to 3.4 nautical miles). The model also guarantees the mean error growth rate with increasing look-ahead time to be lower than 0.2 nautical miles per minute. In addition, the model offers a very low variance in the prediction, which satisfies the variance-standard specified by EUROCONTROL (EU Organization for Safety and Navigation of Air Traffic) for trajectory predictors. The proposed model also outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction model, where the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is reduced from 0.0203 to 0.0018 for latitude prediction, and from 0.0482 to 0.0021 for longitude prediction in a single prediction step of 15 seconds look-ahead. We showed that the pre-trained model on ADS-B data maintains its high performance, in terms of cross-track and along-track errors, when being validated in the Bluesky Air Traffic Simulator. The proposed model would significantly improve the performance of conflict detection systems where such trajectory prediction models are needed.

High-performance trajectory prediction is at the core of strategic airspace capacity and safety enhancement. Current state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models are based on a three-dimensional point-mass model, using often predefined settings from existing databases rather than real-time information available onboard the aircraft to determine aircraft dynamics. As a result trajectory prediction performance is limited by the accuracy of these settings. This paper addresses this limitation and proposes a high-performance four-dimensional trajectory prediction model for civil aircraft. The model includes a new flight-control system and an enhanced flight-script. The latter incorporates new taxonomy and content enabling better definition of aircraft intent. The performance of the trajectory prediction model is assessed using data acquired during a real flight trial, and shown to be significantly better than the current models. It has the potential to meet the required navigation performance for departure, en-route and non-precision-approach phases of flight.

Trajectory prediction is one of the key technologies of the autonomous driving system. The accurate and efficient prediction can assist the autonomous driving system in making correct decisions and ensuring driving safety. This paper summarizes the research on trajectory prediction for autonomous vehicles based on deep learning. First, trajectory prediction models’ input representation and output types are analyzed. Then, deep learning-based trajectory prediction methods are reviewed with their advantages and limitations. Finally, future research directions are proposed to address the shortcomings of existing methods in terms of multi-agent interaction modeling and generalization capability.

Vehicle trajectory information is a crucial part of improving the efficiency and the safety of the ITS. Data missing or irregular sampling in the real-world road traffic makes it hard to obtain accurate real-time vehicle trajectories. In this paper, we focus on trajectory imputation and prediction tasks with small data (magnitude set as 10 1 and 10 2 ). Limited by insufficient data, the simulation results of the existing data-driven algorithms are unsatisfactory. With car-following models integrated as prior physical information to constrain the training process, we design the car-following-informed neural network (CFINN). A multi-head self-attention layer is attached to the fully connected network layer to extract vehicle features. Different from the structure of most neural networks in regression analysis, an extra physics-based dataset is constructed in the CFINN. The loss function consists of two parts including the given trajectory's fitting error and the generated trajectory's residual error. We embed the gated recurrent unit-based encoder–decoder layer to the CFINN framework for trajectory predictions. The rationality and the superiority of our model are validated on the NGSIM dataset and the HighD dataset. Compared with baseline models in both single-vehicle and queue-typed trajectory imputation experiments, lower error can be achieved via the CFINN and coefficients of car-following models can be calibrated. According to driving regimes derived from CFINN-based trajectory prediction experiments, we discuss the impact of cut-in behaviours on the target vehicle and carry out the kinetic analysis. The novel neural network model driven by both data and physical knowledge provides technical support in vehicle status assessments and trajectory predictions.

Deep neural network (DNN) models are being deployed in safety-critical embedded devices for object identification, recognition, and even trajectory prediction. Optimised versions of such models, in particular the convolutional ones, are becoming increasingly common in resource-constrained edge-computing devices (e.g., sensors, drones), which typically rely on reduced memory footprint, low power budget and low-performance microprocessors. DNN models are prone to radiation-induced soft errors, and tackling their occurrence in resource-constrained devices is a mandatory and substantial challenge. While traditional replication-based soft error mitigation techniques will likely account for a reasonable performance penalty, hardware solutions are even more costly. To undertake this almost contradictory challenge, this work evaluates the efficiency of a lightweight software-based mitigation technique, called Register Allocation Technique (RAT), when applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) model running on two commercial Arm microprocessors (i.e., Cortex-M4 and M7) under the effects of neutron radiation. Gathered results obtained from two neutron radiation campaigns suggest that RAT can reduce the number of critical faults in the CNN model running on both Arm Cortex-M microprocessors. Results also suggest that the SDC FIT rate of the RAT-hardened CNN model can be reduced in up to 83% with a runtime overhead of 32%.