Machine learning and finite element integration-driven surrogate model for fluid-structure interaction seismic response analysis of aqueduct structures

The fluid–structure interaction (FSI) effect should be carefully considered in a seismic analysis of nuclear reactor internals to obtain the appropriate seismic responses because the dynamic characteristics of reactor internals change when they are submerged in the reactor coolant. This study suggests that a seismic analysis methodology considered the FSI effect in an integral reactor, and applies the methodology to the System-Integrated Modular Advanced Reactor (SMART) developed in Korea. In this methodology, we especially focus on constructing a numerical analysis model that can represent the dynamic behaviors considered in the FSI effect. The effect is included in the simplified seismic analysis model by adopting the fluid elements at the gap between the structures. The overall procedures of the seismic analysis model construction are verified by using dynamic characteristics extracted from a scaled-down model, and then the time history analysis is carried out using the constructed seismic analysis model, applying the El Centro earthquake input in order to obtain the major seismic responses. The results show that the seismic analysis model can clearly provide the seismic responses of the reactor internals. Moreover, the results emphasize the importance of the consideration of the FSI effect in the seismic analysis of the integral reactor.

Machine learning (ML) models provide more choices to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to more properly manage blood glucose (BG) levels. However, because of numerous types of ML algorithms, choosing an appropriate model is vitally important. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the performance of ML models in predicting BG levels. In addition, we assessed ML models used to detect and predict adverse BG (hypoglycemia) events by calculating pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Explore databases were systematically searched for studies on predicting BG levels and predicting or detecting adverse BG events using ML models, from inception to November 2022. Studies that assessed the performance of different ML models in predicting or detecting BG levels or adverse BG events of patients with DM were included. Studies with no derivation or performance metrics of ML models were excluded. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was applied to assess the quality of included studies. Primary outcomes were the relative ranking of ML models for predicting BG levels in different prediction horizons (PHs) and pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of ML models in detecting or predicting adverse BG events. In total, 46 eligible studies were included for meta-analysis. Regarding ML models for predicting BG levels, the means of the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) in a PH of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes were 18.88 (SD 19.71), 21.40 (SD 12.56), 21.27 (SD 5.17), and 30.01 (SD 7.23) mg/dL, respectively. The neural network model (NNM) showed the highest relative performance in different PHs. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of the positive likelihood ratio and the negative likelihood ratio of ML models were 8.3 (95% CI 5.7-12.0) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.22-0.44), respectively, for predicting hypoglycemia and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7) and 0.37 (95% CI 0.29-0.46), respectively, for detecting hypoglycemia. Statistically significant high heterogeneity was detected in all subgroups, with different sources of heterogeneity. For predicting precise BG levels, the RMSE increases with a rise in the PH, and the NNM shows the highest relative performance among all the ML models. Meanwhile, current ML models have sufficient ability to predict adverse BG events, while their ability to detect adverse BG events needs to be enhanced. PROSPERO CRD42022375250; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375250.

Interpretable vs. noninterpretable machine learning models for data-driven hydro-climatological process modeling

Random seismic response analysis of truss structures with uncertain parameters

PD27-01 DEVELOPMENT OF A MACHINE LEARNING (ML) MODEL TO AUTOMATICALLY AND PRECISELY IDENTIFY KIDNEY STONES FROM URETEROSCOPY VIDEO RECORDINGS

Aim: The majority of machine learning (ML) models in healthcare are built on retrospective data, much of which is collected without explicit patient consent for use in artificial intelligence (AI) and ML applications. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether clinicians and scientific researchers themselves consent to provide their own data for the training of ML models. Materials and Methods: This survey was conducted through an anonymous online survey, utilizing platforms such as Telegram, LinkedIn, and Viber. The target audience comprised specific international groups, primarily Russian, German, and English-speaking, of clinicians and scientific researchers. These participants ranged in their levels of expertise and experience, from beginners to veterans. The survey centered on a singular, pivotal question: “Do You Consent to the Use of Your Biological and Private Data for Training Machine Learning and AI Models?” Respondents had the option to choose from three responses: “Yes” and “No”. Results: The survey was conducted in January 2024. A total of 119 unique and verified individuals participated in the survey. The results revealed that only 50% of respondents (63 persons) expressed consent to provide their own data for the training of ML and AI models. Conclusion: In the development of ML and AI models, particularly open-source ones, it is crucial to ascertain whether participants are willing to provide their private data. While ML algorithms can transform the nature of data, it is important to remember that the primary owner of this data is the individual. Our findings show that in 50% of the cases, even participants from scientific research and clinical backgrounds – individuals typically accountable for ensuring data quality in AI and ML model development – do not consent to the use of their data in AI and ML settings. This highlights the need for more stringent consent processes and ethical considerations in the utilization of personal data in AI and ML research.

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) plays a vital role in irrigation and water resource planning. The Penman–Monteith method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO PM56) is widely used and considered a standard to calculate ETo. However, FAO PM56 cannot be used with limited meteorological variables, so it is compulsory to choose an alternative model for ETo estimation, which requires fewer variables. This study built ten machine learning (ML) models based on multi-function, neural network, and tree-based structure against the FAO PM56 method. For this purpose, time series temperature data on a monthly scale are only used to train ML models. The developed ML models were applied to estimate ETo at different test stations and the obtained results were compared with the FAO PM56 method to verify and validate their performance in ETo estimation for the selected stations. In addition, multiple statistical indicators, including root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and correlation coefficient (r) were calculated to compare the performance of each ML model on ETo estimation. Among the applied ML models, the ETo tree boost (TB) ML model outperformed the other ML models in estimating ETo in diverse climatic conditions based on statistical indicators (R2, NSE, r, RMSE, and MAE). Moreover, the observed R2, NSE, and r were the highest for the TB ML model, while RMSE and MAE were found to be the lowest at the study sites compared to other applied ML models. Lastly, ETo point data yielded from the TB ML model was used in an interpolation process to create monthly and annual ETo maps. Based on the ETo maps, this study suggests mainly a focus on areas with high ETo values and proper irrigation scheduling of crops to ensure water sustainability.

12074 Background: Skeletal-related events (SREs) are detrimental clinical events in bone metastasis from advanced cancer, defined by pathologic fracture, spinal cord compression, and inevitable surgical or radiational intervention to the bone. Given their negative impact on quality of life and prognosis and interpatient heterogeneity in the SRE risk, accurate identification of patients with high SRE risk is critical. Methods: The patient-level data from three randomized clinical trials that administered zoledronic acid (ZA) to patients with bone-metastatic breast cancer, castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), and other types of cancer were analyzed. (N = 460, 452, and 315, respectively) Machine learning (ML) models to predict SREs within 18 months (breast cancer), 12 months (CRPC), and 9 months (other cancers) were developed based on more than 40 baseline clinical and laboratory data. Seven ML algorithms and five feature selection methods were utilized to develop multiple models. The ML model with the best performance was identified based on the F1 score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for each cancer type and interrogated for important features with Shapley additive explanations. Lastly, the ML models’ ability to stratify patients by the cumulative SRE risk was evaluated by calculating hazard ratio (HR) with Cox-proportional hazards models. Results: Among the multiple ML models developed with different algorithms and feature selection methods, the model developed utilizing the random forests algorithm and the Boruta method for selecting features demonstrated the best performance in all types of cancer (F1 0.70, 0.67, and 0.67, and AUC-ROC 0.72, 0.68, and 0.73 for breast cancer, CRPC, and other cancers, respectively). In the ML model for breast cancer, performance status (PS), history of SRE, serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), history of anti-neoplastic surgery, radiation therapy, and pathologic fracture were included as important features. Serum ALP, albumin, sodium, Gleason scores, and geographic regions were shown to be relevant in the CRPC model. For other cancers, serum ALP, albumin, total protein, phosphorus, red blood cell count, white blood cell count, visceral metastases, and history of arthritis were incorporated in the ML model. The ML model prediction successfully stratified the patients for cumulative SRE risk in all three cohorts. (HR with 95% confidence interval: 2.43 [1.86 – 3.18], 1.92 [1.51 – 2.45], and 3.06 [2.29 – 4.09] for breast cancer, CRPC, and other types of cancer, respectively). Conclusions: ML models incorporating baseline clinical and laboratory data can identify patients with bone metastasis on ZA harboring a high SRE risk.

Machine learning-based water quality prediction using octennial in-situ Daphnia magna biological early warning system data

Prediction of infarct extent among patients with acute ischemic stroke using computed tomography perfusion is defined by predefined discrete computed tomography perfusion thresholds. Our objective is to develop a threshold-free computed tomography perfusion-based machine learning (ML) model to predict follow-up infarct in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Sixty-eight patients from the PRoveIT study (Measuring Collaterals With Multi-Phase CT Angiography in Patients With Ischemic Stroke) were used to derive a ML model using random forest to predict follow-up infarction voxel by voxel, and 137 patients from the HERMES study (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) were used to test the derived ML model. Average map, Tmax, cerebral blood flow, cerebral blood volume, and time variables including stroke onset-to-imaging and imaging-to-reperfusion time, were used as features to train the ML model. Spatial and volumetric agreement between the ML model predicted follow-up infarct and actual follow-up infarct were assessed. Relative cerebral blood flow <0.3 threshold using RAPID software and time-dependent Tmax thresholds were compared with the ML model. In the test cohort (137 patients), median follow-up infarct volume predicted by the ML model was 30.9 mL (interquartile range, 16.4-54.3 mL), compared with a median 29.6 mL (interquartile range, 11.1-70.9 mL) of actual follow-up infarct volume. The Pearson correlation coefficient between 2 measurements was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86, P<0.001) while the volumetric difference was -3.2 mL (interquartile range, -16.7 to 6.1 mL). Volumetric difference with the ML model was smaller versus the relative cerebral blood flow <0.3 threshold and the time-dependent Tmax threshold (P<0.001). A ML using computed tomography perfusion data and time estimates follow-up infarction in patients with acute ischemic stroke better than current methods.

This study focuses on using various machine learning (ML) models to evaluate the shear behaviors of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams reinforced with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars. The main objective of the study is to predict the shear strength of UHPC beams reinforced with GFRP bars using ML models. We use four different ML models: support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (R.F.), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The experimental database used in the study is acquired from various literature sources and comprises 54 test observations with 11 input features. These input features are likely parameters related to the composition, geometry, and properties of the UHPC beams and GFRP bars. To ensure the ML models' generalizability and scalability, random search methods are utilized to tune the hyperparameters of the algorithms. This tuning process helps improve the performance of the models when predicting the shear strength. The study uses the ACI318M-14 and Eurocode 2 standard building codes to predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams. The ML models' predictions are compared to the results obtained from these building code standards. According to the findings, the XGBoost model demonstrates the highest predictive test performance among the investigated ML models. The study employs the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to assess the significance of each input parameter in the ML models' predictive capabilities. A Taylor diagram is used to statistically compare the accuracy of the ML models. This study concludes that ML models, particularly XGBoost, can effectively predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams.

In the era of precision therapy, early classification of breast cancer (BRCA) molecular subtypes has clinical significance for disease management and prognosis. We explored the accuracy of machine learning (ML) models for early classification of BRCA molecular subtypes through a systematic review of the literature currently available. We retrieved relevant studies published in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Web of Science until 15 April 2022. A prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was applied for the assessment of risk of bias of a genomics-based ML model, and the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) was simultaneously used to evaluate the quality of this radiomics-based ML model. A random effects model was adopted to analyze the predictive accuracy of genomics-based ML and radiomics-based ML for Luminal A, Luminal B, Basal-like or triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). The PROSPERO of our study was prospectively registered (CRD42022333611). Of the 38 studies were selected for analysis, 14 ML models were based on gene-transcriptomic, with only 4 external validations; and 43 ML models were based on radiomics, with only 14 external validations. Meta-analysis results showed that c-statistic values of the ML based on radiomics for the identification of BRCA molecular subtypes Luminal A, Luminal B, Basal-like or TNBC, and HER2 were 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-0.96], 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.87), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.91), and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81-0.86), respectively. The c-statistic values of ML based on the gene-transcriptomic analysis cohort for the identification of the previously described BRCA molecular subtypes were 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93-0.99), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93-0.99), 0.98 (95% CI: 0.95-1.00), and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96-0.98) respectively. Additionally, the sensitivity of the ML model based on radiomics for each molecular subtype ranged from 0.79 to 0.85, while the sensitivity of the ML model based on gene-transcriptomic was between 0.92 and 0.99. Both radiomics and gene transcriptomics produced ideal effects on BRCA molecular subtype prediction. Compared with radiomics, gene transcriptomics yielded better prediction results, but radiomics was simpler and more convenient from a clinical point of view.

Summary A meticulous interpretation of steady-state or unsteady-state relative permeability (Kr) experimental data is required to determine a complete set of Kr curves. In this work, different machine learning (ML) models were developed to assist in a faster estimation of these curves from steady-state drainage coreflooding experimental runs. These ML algorithms include gradient boosting (GB), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and deep neural network (DNN) with a main focus on and comparison of the two latter algorithms (XGB and DNN). Based on existing mathematical models, a leading-edge framework was developed where a large database of Kr and capillary pressure (Pc) curves were generated. This database was used to perform thousands of coreflood simulation runs representing oil-water drainage steady-state experiments. The results obtained from these simulation runs, mainly pressure drop along with other conventional core analysis data, were used to estimate analytical Kr curves based on Darcy’s law. These analytically estimated Kr curves along with the previously generated Pc curves were fed as features into the ML model. The entire data set was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. The k-fold cross-validation technique was applied to increase the model’s accuracy by splitting 80% of the training data into 10 folds. In this manner, for each of the 10 experiments, nine folds were used for training and the remaining fold was used for model validation. Once the model was trained and validated, it was subjected to blind testing on the remaining 20% of the data set. The ML model learns to capture fluid flow behavior inside the core from the training data set. In terms of applicability of these ML models, two sets of experimental data were needed as input; the first was the analytically estimated Kr curves from the steady-state drainage coreflooding experiments, while the other was the Pc curves estimated from centrifuge or mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) measurements. The trained/tested model was then able to estimate Kr curves based on the experimental results fed as input. Furthermore, to test the performance of the ML model when only one set of experimental data is available to an end user, a recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm was trained/tested to predict Kr curves in the absence of Pc curves as an input. The performance of the three developed models (XGB, DNN, and RNN) was assessed using the values of the coefficient of determination (R2) along with the loss calculated during training/validation of the model. The respective crossplots along with comparisons of ground truth vs. artificial intelligence (AI)-predicted curves indicated that the model is capable of making accurate predictions with an error percentage between 0.2% and 0.6% on history-matching experimental data for all three tested ML techniques. This implies that the AI-based model exhibits better efficiency and reliability in determining Kr curves when compared to conventional methods. The developed ML models by no means replace the need to conduct drainage coreflooding or centrifuge experiments but act as an alternative to existing commercial platforms that are used to interpret experimental data to predict Kr curves. The two main advantages of the developed ML models are their capability of predicting Kr curves within a matter of a few minutes as well as with limited intervention from the end user. The results also include a comparison between classical ML approaches, shallow neural networks, and DNNs in terms of accuracy in predicting the final Kr curves. The research presented here is an extension of the state-of-the-art framework proposed by Mathew et al. (2021). However, the two main aspects of the current study are the application of deep learning for the prediction of Kr curves and the application of feature engineering. The latter not only reduces the training/testing time for the ML models but also enables the end user to obtain the final predictions with the least set of experimental data. The various models discussed in this research work currently focus on the prediction of Kr curves for drainage steady-state experiments; however, the work can be extended to capture the imbibition cycle as well.

Data is one of the most important limiting factors of deep machine learning (ML) model in drilling applications. Though a big size of historical data can be available, high-quality cleaned and labeled data is usually limited. In this case study, we show that with limited labeled data, physics-based data augmentation combined with unsupervised learning significantly improves both stability and accuracy in bit wear ML model. It provides a pathway to overcome labeled data shortage and field data quality limitations. Labeled bit wear data is usually limited because only the final bit dull state can be labeled using dull photos for the entire drilling distance. To overcome this difficulty, an encoder-decoder unsupervised ML framework based on Bi-directional LSTM architecture is first applied to the data of entire drilling distance to extract and maximize data learnings. Then, a physics-based wear estimator is implemented in the learned latent space to augment labeled wear dataset, guided by true wear labels and offset-well data. Weighting factor in loss function is applied to optimize augmented and true datasets in final supervised learning step. The proposed real-time bit wear model is built on a combination of physics-based data augmentation and unsupervised data learning method. The model is applied on multiple field bit runs. Results show that by implementing the unsupervised data learnings only, the prediction accuracy is improved by 30% compared to the baseline ML model. By combining physics-based augmentation, the accuracy is further improved by 10%. More importantly, adding physics-based data augmentation significantly reduces prediction variance and unphysical wear outputs, therefore improving prediction stability by more than 30%. It should be noted that the prediction stability of AI/ML model is crucial in real-time application and decision making. The results show physics-based data augmentation not only increases the size of label dataset and prevents model overfitting, but also applies physics-based guidance to the ML model effectively. It is learned weighting factor plays a crucial role in balancing loss contributions from true wear labels and physics-based labels. While low weighting factor of physics-based labels diminishes the augmented data, high weighting factor disrespects the true wear labels leading to a high prediction bias. Overall, the bit wear model study shows physic-based data augmentation combined with unsupervised data learning can effectively improve model accuracy, stability, and overcome labeled data shortage difficulty. The proposed paper shows a case study for the bit wear ML model using a combination of physics-based data augmentation and unsupervised data learning. While labeled data is one of the major challenges of ML models in many drilling applications, this study provides a pathway to improve both accuracy and stability of deep ML models with limited labeled data.

Study question Can a machine learning (ML) model, developed using modern neural network architecture produce comparable annotation data; utilisable for algorithmic outcome prediction, to manual time-lapse annotations? Summary answer The model automatically annotated unseen embryos with comparable results to manual methods, generating morphokinetic data to enable comparably predictive outputs from an embryo selection algorithm. What is known already The application of artificial intelligence across healthcare industries, including fertility, is increasing. Several ML models are available that seek to generate or analyse embryo images and morphokinetic data, and to determine embryo viability potential. Along with photographic images, the use of time-lapse in IVF laboratories has amassed numeric data, resulting predominantly from annotated manual assessment of images over time. Embryo annotation practice is variable in quality, can be subjective and is time-consuming; commonly taking several minutes per embryo. The development of rapid, accurate automatic annotation would represent a significant time-saving as well as an increase in reproducibility and accuracy. Study design, size, duration Multicentre quality assured annotation data from 63,383 time-lapse monitored embryos (EmbryoScope®), comprising over 400 million individual images, were used to train a ML model to automatically generate morphokinetic annotations. Data was derived from 8 UK clinics within a cohesive group between 2012-2021. Accuracy was assessed using 900 unseen embryos (with live birth outcome) by comparing the output of an established in-house, prospectively validated embryo selection model when the input was either ML-automated, or manual annotations. Participants/materials, setting, methods Multi-focal plane images were processed on the Azure cloud (Microsoft) and resampled to 300x300 pixels. A Laplacian-based focal stacking algorithm merged frames into a single image. The model consisted of an EfficientNetB4 Convolutional Neural Network classifier to extract features and classify the stage of embryo images. A Temporal Convolutional Network interpreted a time-series of image features; producing annotations from pronuclear fading through to blastocyst. Soft localisation loss function used QA data to integrate annotation subjectivities. Main results and the role of chance The ML model rapidly and automatically generated annotations. Efficacy and comparability of the ML model to automate reliable, utilisable annotations was demonstrated by comparison with manual annotation data and the ML model’s ability to auto-generate annotations which could be used to predict live birth by providing annotation data to an established, validated in house embryo selection model. Live birth-predictive capability was measured, and benchmarked against manual annotation, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). When tested on time-lapse images, collected from pronuclear fading to full blastulation, representing 900 previously unseen, transferred blastocysts where live birth outcomes were blinded, the in-house developed auto-annotation ML model resulted in an AUC of 0.686 compared with 0.661 for manual annotations, for live birth prediction. Auto annotation using the developed model took only milliseconds to complete per embryo. The developed auto-annotation model, built and tested on large data, is considered suitable for productionisation with the aim of being validated and integrated into an application to support IVF laboratory practice. Limitations, reasons for caution Whilst this model was trained to recognise key morphokinetic events, there are other morphokinetic variables that may be useful in the prediction of live birth and further improve embryo selection, or deselection, ability. Akin to manual interpretation, some embryos may fail to be annotated or need second opinion. Wider implications of the findings There is increasing evidence supporting the application of ML to utilise big data from time-lapse imaging and fertility care generally. Whilst promising benefits to IVF clinics and patients, responsible use of data is required alongside large high-quality datasets, and rigorous validation, to ensure safe and robust applications. Trial registration number N/A