Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States

The measurement of electoral competition, with application to Indian states

We combine consideration of Duverger’s Law (Political parties: Their organization and activity in the modern state. London: Methuen, 1954) with Demsetz’s (J Law Econ 11:55–65, 1968) theory of natural monopoly to provide a novel perspective on the meaning and measurement of electoral competitiveness in a single member district, plurality rule electoral system. In the Duverger-Demsetz view we develop, the degree of competition is determined by the contestability of elections. Contestability declines with party fragmentation, and so an increase in the effective number of parties above the long run level of 2 predicted by Duverger’s ‘Law’ for plurality based single seat elections signals a decline in competitiveness. This argument runs contrary to the view, sometimes expressed in empirical studies of elections and public policy, that more candidates or parties, each with a smaller vote share reflects a more competitive environment. Using the history of the Canadian parliamentary system, we provide qualified support for the Duverger-Demsetz perspective by studying the relationship between the concentration of vote shares and a new index of electoral contestability. Extension of the argument to proportional electoral systems is also considered.

This paper explores the importance of information in determining voter turnout by using Vidhan Sabha electoral data from the 14 major states of India during the period 2001-02 to 2020-21. As per the Indian constitution, citizens of age 18 and above are eligible for voting. Why voters should cast vote? Is the act of voting rational? It is not expected that a voter casts his vote only for getting material benefit as a single vote cannot change the overall outcome of an election. It is true that some voters cast their votes for maintaining their duties as a citizen. In India, there is an upward trend of voter turnout over time. So there are some other reasons that influence voter turnout. In this context, this paper measures the role of various determinants of voter turnout. Broadly, the literature on voter turnout can be divided into two groups – one is Rational voter model and another is Information theory. These theories provide the rationale for including the determinants of voter turnout and explain the reasons behind voter turnout. The important determinants that are considered in the paper: closeness of the election, the number of parties in the electoral landscape, and the availability of information to voters. This paper specifically focuses on the role of information in explaining voter turnout in assembly elections of selected Indian states. In the analysis, five important information variables are considered: circulation of newspaper, literacy rate, ownership of television, ownership of radio and transistor, and penetration of telephone. The principal findings of the paper are as follows. First, the effective number of parties in a legislature has a negative impact on voter turnout. This result validates the theory that an increase in the effective number of parties magnifies information cost which may reduce a voter’s incentive to cast her ballot. Second, the effect of the information variables on turnout is direct. Specifically, the ownership of television and the ownership of radio and transistor significantly increase voter turnout. These results are robust across various specifications used in the empirical analysis. In sum, a substantial amount of variation in the voter turnout is explained by the effective number of parties and the availability of information to an individual. Moreover, the effects of the information variables are more prominent in the southern states compared to other parts of India.

Recent research has leveraged computer simulations to identify the effect of gerrymandering on partisan bias in U.S. legislatures. As a result of this method, researchers are able to distinguish between the intentional partisan bias caused by gerrymandering and the natural partisan bias that stems from the geographic sorting of partisan voters. However, this research has yet to explore the effect of gerrymandering on other biases like reduced electoral competition and incumbency protection. Using a computer algorithm to design a set of districts without political intent, I measure the extent to which the current districts have been gerrymandered to produce safer seats in Congress. I find that gerrymandering only has a minor effect on the average district, but does produce a number of safe seats for both Democrats and Republicans. Moreover, these safe seats tend to be located in states where a single party controls the districting process.

Introduction: India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states. Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India. Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1. Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.

Purpose This study aims to assess the AI preparedness of Indian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and its impact on social sustainability. This study used a technology–organization–environment-based proposed framework; it explores how technical, organizational and environmental readiness influences ethical practices and social goals. This research investigates whether ethical AI mediates AI readiness and SS in Indian SMEs. Design/methodology/approach The data, using a structure survey, collected from 739 respondents serving SMEs in eight Indian states was used. A five-point Likert scale was used to collect data on all the constructs. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the theoretical model. Descriptive statistics, reliability and discriminant validity were performed to ensure an effective measurement model. This provided a basis for analysis of direct effects and mediating effects of AI-driven ethical and sustainable business practices. Findings The research revealed positive relationships between AI readiness and social sustainability (β = 0.43) and AI readiness and business ethics (β = 0.51). In addition, business ethics had a strong positive direct effect on social sustainability (β = 0.47). Importantly, business ethics is also an important mediator between AI readiness and social sustainability (indirect effect β = 0.24). Furthermore, it is reflected that ethical integration is important for AI to achieve socially sustainable outcomes. The SMEs are much better prepared to use AI responsibly and inclusively to benefit the stakeholders if they are more digitally and culturally prepared. Research limitations/implications This study is a cross-sectional design that limits the causal inference. Though the responses were taken from the executives of SMEs in eight Indian states, they may have sectoral and regional imbalances. Also, the responses could have personal biases, as respondents may have been influenced by social desirability. Despite these constraints, the research adds to the literature on AI readiness, social sustainability, and the mediating role of ethics. It also highlights avenues for future research, including a longitudinal study on the SMEs and their AI readiness, regional comparisons of SMEs and integration of governing regulations with ethical AI policies in SMEs. Practical implications This research suggests that the SME management must invest in digital tools and promote ethical culture for successful AI use. Ethical auditing may be done by SMEs alongside people analytics to use ethical AI for enterprise social causes. Policymakers can complement initiatives such as IndiaAI and the Business Responsibility and Sustainability Report requirements by including ethical AI training in the SMEs. The responsible adoption of AI can enhance both trust and employee engagement and can potentially improve CSR outcomes. Originality/value The research articulates an “AI-readiness-ethics-sustainability framework” to study AI preparedness and social sustainability in Indian SMEs. Majorly, the literature review reflects the work of researchers on the technical or economic impacts of AI. This study not only explores the technological, organizational and environmental preparedness but also records the mediating effect of ethics on AI readiness of SMEs on social sustainability and advocates that ethically engaged AI can foster efficiency and influence inclusive and sustainable development.

The outcomes of federalism have played out in very different manners in various societies that have chosen to adopt this design of organising themselves. The Indian context is particularly interesting because of how Indian states have formed, evolved or have carved out of one another into existence. In this paper, I explore whether smaller states could perform better on governance outcomes. The measure of governance is legislative activity in Indian state parliaments. The results indicate that as states become smaller units to govern, the legislative in activity in their respective parliaments does increase.

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This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of public sector spending on elementary education in India. Adopting a positivist philosophy, the research focuses on observable phenomena and employs a mono-method approach using quantitative analysis. It follows a deductive approach, aiming to test established theories and variables widely discussed in the existing literature. Given the strong correlation between public spending and educational outcomes, along with the varied educational achievements across Indian states, the study analyzes spending efficiency in sixteen major states. To achieve this, the study applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Index to assess the efficiency of educational spending during the five years preceding and following the implementation of the Right to Education Act (RTE), 2010. The analysis compares DEA efficiency scores and Malmquist Index-based growth efficiency scores across the pre- and post-RTE periods. The findings indicate an overall improvement in spending efficiency, which rose from 83% to 93%. However, the Malmquist Index reveals a decline in the growth rate of efficiency—from 7.1% to 2.3%—suggesting that although efficiency improved, the rate of improvement has slowed. The primary objective of enhancing spending efficiency is to maximize educational outcomes. In the second part of the study, the influence of other variables—such as governance quality, maternal education, and school location (rural vs. urban)—on educational outcomes is examined. Regression analysis confirms the significant impact of governance, school location, and maternal education on educational performance in the Indian context. This study fills a critical research gap in several ways. It not only provides efficiency estimates for elementary education in India but also compares efficiency before and after the implementation of the RTE Act. It contributes to the existing literature by applying the Malmquist Index in conjunction with DEA, thereby capturing not just static efficiency levels but also the rate of change in efficiency over time. The use of the Malmquist Index represents a novel contribution to the Indian context, as earlier studies have not employed this method to estimate efficiency growth rates. Moreover, the study offers a practical framework for policymakers to assess spending from an efficiency standpoint. It further highlights the need to focus on governance quality, school location, and maternal education when analysing the reasons behind inter-state differences and below-par performance in educational outcomes.

Commercial sex represents a critical context for HIV transmission within India and elsewhere. Despite research and programmatic attention to commercial sex workers (CSWs), less is known concerning the male CSW clients considered a bridge population for HIV transmission to the general population and thought to drive demand for the sex trafficking of women and girls. The current study assesses the prevalence of past year CSW contact, condom nonuse therein, and associations with demographic characteristics and gendered attitudes among a national sample of Indian men. The nationally representative Indian National Family Health Survey-3 was conducted across all Indian states in 2005-2006; the current sample was limited to 46,961 sexually active men. Analyses calculated the prevalence of past year CSW contact and inconsistent condom use; adjusted logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations of demographic characteristics, sexual entitlement and justification of wife abuse with past year CSW contact, and inconsistent condom use. Approximately 1 in 100 Indian men (0.9%) reported past year CSW contact; over half of such men reported inconsistent condom use with CSWs. CSW contact was most common among men ages 15-24 (3.6%) and never married men (9.9%). Men's CSW contact related to higher levels of sexual entitlement (adjusted odds ratio = 1.64; 95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.17) and justification of violence against wives (adjusted odds ratio = 1.41; 95% confidence interval: 1.03 to 1.93). Men's past year CSW contact was concentrated among young and unmarried Indian men; condom nonuse with CSWs was common. Traditional gender ideologies seemed to support men's CSW contact, bolstering consideration of this behavior as a gendered form of HIV risk. Findings provide direction for interventions to reduce men's CSW contact in the Indian context by describing high-risk subpopulations and indicating that gender ideologies should be addressed.

Evaluating state tourism websites using Search Engine Optimization tools

Political Competitiveness and Fiscal Structure: A Time Series Analysis. Canada, 1870 - 2015

Purpose : The present study attempted to compare the performance of 25 major states in India concerning their infrastructure output. To provide an accurate picture, the infrastructure investment and output of each state were compared using sophisticated analysis to determine the true productivity of the Indian states.Methodology : Principal component analysis was used for raw analysis of panel data from 25 Indian states, while ordinary least square regression was used for refined analysis. The fields of electricity, building, transportation, and communication were examined in this study conducted in India.Findings : In raw analysis, states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka performed well, and states like Goa and north-eastern states like Mizoram, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland were poor performers. However, after a refined analysis, the actual laggards identified were Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, etc. While these states found it difficult to get off the ground despite receiving significant infrastructure funding, the performance of places such as Goa and other northeastern states significantly improved following the more thorough investigation.Practical Implications : The development of India is concerned with the gap in infrastructure between its states. It was advised that policymakers identify the states whose productivity is below par and come up with strategies to elevate them in order to address this.Originality/Value : The productivity of Indian states in the infrastructure sector has only been empirically studied in a few studies. It was a fresh notion to analyze infrastructure productivity using both raw and refined information, with infrastructure investment serving as a yardstick, in contrast to previous studies.

Studies of government size usually try to identify the factors that explain what parts of economic activity are brought within the public sector and what parts are left strictly in private hands. Modern governments are now so large that the question of what determines the private/public composition, or privateness, of public expenditure is of comparable importance for understanding the role of government in society. In this paper, we use a model of the composition of public budgets to uncover the importance of electoral competitiveness and other factors in the evolution of the privateness of public expenditure across the Indian states. These states vary widely in their socioeconomic characteristics while sharing a common political heritage based on parliamentary government. New measures of public expenditure on private targetable goods and of electoral competitiveness at the Indian state level accompany the paper along with a primer on Indian public finance accounting practices in an Online Appendix. The empirical analysis shows that the degree of privateness in India’s more developed states falls substantially with greater political competition and with rising incomes, while in the less developed states it responds more weakly to these key factors and in some cases even inversely.

IO n the surface, the small state of Kerala, located at the southwestern tip of the Indian peninsula, gives little impression that it is playing a significant and exciting role in the Indian demographic context. It is a poor state, even by Indian standards; its per capita income of U.S. $80 is substantially lower than the all-India average of U.S. $110. The daily per capita calorie intake is well below the all-India average;1 on this basis, 90 per cent of the population of Kerala has been classified as malnourished.2 With a population of 21 million in an area of 38,864 square kilometers, the state is extremely crowded. The population density (550 persons per sq km) exceeds even that of Bangladesh (530 persons per sq km). In addition, since its formation in 1956, Kerala's political history has been stormy, including a three-year period of Communist rule. Perhaps because of its history of political turbulence, Kerala has not received much special attention from Indian development planners. Expec,tationsand inputs-have been highest for Maharashtra State, the most industrially advanced state, of which India's premier city of Bombay is a bustling seaport, and Punjab State, the most agriculturally advanced state and home of the Green Revolution. Nevertheless, Kerala has managed to surpass not only these states, but all the Indian states in certain important measures of social development. For example, 60.2 percent of Kerala citizens are literate, compared to 29 percent of all Indians. Life expectancy at birth is 60.9 years, compared to 46.5 for all-India. The crude death rate is 9.2, whereas for all-India it is 16.9. Kerala has an infant mortality rate of 55, compared to 122 for allIndia, and the crude birth rate is 31.9, whereas for all-India it is 37. The anomaly that Kerala presents now becomes clear. It is extraordinary to see such low mortality and fertility rates associated with such high levels of poverty, malnutrition, and population density. How can a population with levels of income and nutrition among the lowest in the world achieve levels of fertility and mortality substantially lower than surrounding populations with similar cultural backgrounds but higher incomes and caloric intakes? Such peculiar demographic behavior is particularly