Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China

Evaluation of hybrid forecasting approaches for wind speed and power generation time series

Hybrid wind speed forecasting using ICEEMDAN and transformer model with novel loss function

The exploitation of renewable energy is essential for mitigating climate change and reducing fossil fuel emissions. Wind energy, the most mature technology, is highly dependent on wind speed, and the accurate prediction of the latter substantially supports wind power generation. In this work, various artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and evaluated for their wind speed prediction ability using the ERA5 historical reanalysis data for four potential Offshore Wind Farm Organized Development Areas in Greece, selected as suitable for floating wind installations. The training period for all the ANNs was 80% of the time series length and the remaining 20% of the dataset was the testing period. Of all the ANNs examined, the hybrid model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks demonstrated superior forecasting performance compared to the individual models, as evaluated by standard statistical metrics, while it also exhibited a very good performance at high wind speeds, i.e., greater than 15 m/s. The hybrid model achieved the lowest root mean square errors across all the sites—0.52 m/s (Crete), 0.59 m/s (Gyaros), 0.49 m/s (Patras), 0.58 m/s (Pilot 1A), and 0.55 m/s (Pilot 1B)—and an average coefficient of determination (R2) of 97%. Its enhanced accuracy is attributed to the integration of the LSTM and GRU components strengths, enabling it to better capture the temporal patterns in the wind speed data. These findings underscore the potential of hybrid neural networks for improving wind speed forecasting accuracy and reliability, contributing to the more effective integration of wind energy into the power grid and the better planning of offshore wind farm energy generation.

Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the reduced-set Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts

A compound structure of ELM based on feature selection and parameter optimization using hybrid backtracking search algorithm for wind speed forecasting

Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models

Short‐term wind speed prediction is essential for economical wind power utilization. The real‐world wind speed data are typically intermittent and fluctuating, presenting great challenges to existing shallow models. In this paper, we present a novel deep hybrid model for multistep wind speed prediction, namely, LR‐FFT‐RP‐MLP/LSTM (linear fast Fourier transform rank pooling multiple‐layer perceptron/long short‐term memory). Our hybrid model processes the local and global input features simultaneously. We leverage RP for the local feature extraction to capture the temporal structure while maintaining the temporal order. Besides, to understand the wind periodic patterns, we exploit FFT to extract global features and relevant frequency components in the wind speed data. The resulting local and global features are, respectively, integrated with the original data and are fed into an MLP/LSTM layer for the initial wind speed predictions. Finally, we leverage a linear regression layer to collaborate these initial predictions to produce the final wind speed prediction. The proposed hybrid model is evaluated using real wind speed data collected from 2010 to 2020, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities when compared with state‐of‐the‐art single and hybrid models. Overall, this study presents a promising approach for improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasting.

Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting based on EMD-VAR model and spatial correlation

The study introduces a novel approach to short-term wind speed forecasting, which amalgamates statistical and machine learning techniques through the utilization of a hybrid model consisting of the broad learning system (BLS) and the relevance vector machine (RVM), to account for the nonstationary characteristics of wind speed data. Firstly, the initial wind speed time series is preprocessed using singular spectrum analysis to achieve noise reduction. Subsequently, the denoised wind speed time series is predicted using generalized learning system (BLS), and the prediction error is obtained. Finally, the prediction error of BLS is further predicted using RVM, and the final prediction result is obtained by combining it with the prediction results of BLS. By integrating multiple algorithms, this novel wind speed forecasting hybrid model improves prediction accuracy and can adapt to different wind speed characteristics and complex wind speed fluctuations. Through a case study, we find that this model outperforms other comparative models in terms of prediction, fully demonstrating its superiority.

Although clean and sustainable wind energy has long been recognized as one of the most attractive electric power sources, generation of wind power is still much easier than its integration into liberalized electricity markets. One of the key obstacles on the way of wider implementation of wind energy is its highly volatile and intermittent nature. This has boosted an interest in developing a fully probabilistic forecast of wind speed, aiming to assess a variety of related uncertainties. Nonetheless, most of the available methodology for constructing a future predictive density for wind speed are based on parametric distributional assumptions on the observed wind data, and such conditions are often too restrictive and infeasible in practice. In this paper we propose a new nonparametric data-driven approach to probabilistic wind speed forecasting, adaptively combining sieve bootstrap and regime switching models. Our new bootstrapped regime switching (BRS) model delivers highly competitive, sharp and calibrated ensembles of wind speed forecasts, governed by various states of wind direction, and imposes minimal requirements on the observed wind data. The proposed methodology is illustrated by developing probabilistic wind speed forecasts for a site in the Washington State, USA.

Wind energy is one of the promising renewable energy sources that are ideal for daily use, especially in the area with sufficient wind blows like Indonesia. Wind speed caused by wind energy is a driving force for wind turbines to produce electrical power. One problem in wind turbine management is to predict the speed of the wind in the short term for efficiency. In this research, forecasting of short-term wind speed was done in the city of Sibolga by uses an Elman recurrent neural network based on meteorological data: temperature, humidity, and air pressure to predict over the next ten days. Four prediction models were developed for this purpose based on training parameters and dataset used. The wind speed forecasting produces MAPE error values of 20.02% in the first model, 23.31% in the second model, 18.15% in the third model, and 12.51% in the fourth model. The fourth model was capable of predicting with the lowest error and, therefore, considered to be useful for wind turbine management.

Wind energy is a promising alternativefor renewable source of energy pursued world-wide to reduce carbon emissions for a green future. The prediction of wind speed is a challenging subject and plays an instrumental role in development of wind power systems (particularly grid connected renewable energy systems where predicting wind speed facilitates manipulation of the load on the grid). Modern machine learning techniques including neural networks have been widely utilized for this purpose. Literature indicates availability of several models for estimation of the wind speed one hour ahead and the hourly wind speed data profile one day ahead. This paper considers the prediction of wind energy as a univariate time series (UVT) prediction problem and employs major prediction algorithms including the K-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Holt-Winter and ARIMA method. Forecasting a univariate time series depends only on past wind speed data values, rather than use of external data attributes like wind direction or weather forecast for prediction algorithm. In the present study (as a case-study), 13 years of hourly average wind speed data (of the period 1970-1982) of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia has been utilized to evaluate the performance of selected algorithms. Yanbu is an industrial city that plays a major role in the economy of Saudi Arabia. The findings showed that SVR, RF and ARIMA methods exhibit a better forecastingperformance in relation to four evaluation parameters of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE),Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE),Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE).

Wind speed forecasting based on hybrid model with model selection and wind energy conversion

A novel hybrid model, which integrates a stochastic diffusion process and artificial neural networks, is proposed for accurate modelling and forecasting of wind speed. A stochastic diffusion process model is deployed to capture the uncertainty of wind speed, while the drift and the diffusion of the stochastic diffusion process are approximated by artificial neural networks (ANNs). The proposed method takes advantages of both the stochastic diffusion process to simulate the evolution of wind speed and the universal approximation of ANNs to approximate the distribution of wind speed. The proposed method can easily be used to generate wind speed at any length. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through numerical studies on wind speed data collected from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA, by benchmarking against the persistence model and the improved Markov chain model in the literature. The numerical results illustrate that the proposed method achieved better modeling and forecasting in terms of mean absolute error and root mean square error than the benchmarks.

Accurate prediction of wind speed is a prerequisite for the safe and accurate operation of wind power generation, however, WRF models typically do not produce sufficiently accurate wind speed predictions. This study proposed a Seasonal and Temporal Correlation - Deep Forest (STC-DF) model for offshore wind speed prediction. Different from traditional methods, the STC-DF model takes the advantages of the deep forest algorithm to automatically learn complex feature interactions without manual feature engineering. The model is designed to capture the seasonal and temporal characteristics of wind speed variations. To test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we applied the trained STC-DF model to an offshore wind farm in Hainan Province, China. Seven days of data from each season were selected for testing. The results show that the STC-DF model can effectively reduce the error caused by WRF forecast. The error index of the corrected wind speed reduced more than 40%, the accuracy of wind speed forecast increased 15%. And the method passed the multi-model comparison test and robustness experiment. These research results show that the STC-DF model has strong versatility and good correction ability, and is suitable for wind speed forecasting in different regions, which is a feasible method to improve the reliability of offshore wind power generation.