Message from President Elect.

Although much of the media attention during presidential election years focuses on polls tracking popular support for the major candidates, the complicated role played by the Electoral College in this multistage election process must be accounted for in order to address the issue of winning the presidency. State-level pre-election polls are used in a manner that allows the structure of multistage election processes to be addressed directly. We consider frequentist and Bayesian approaches for predicting election outcomes and discuss ways to incorporate such analyses in a course project suitable for undergraduates or graduate students studying statistics. Using state-level pre-election polling data, we consider the U.S. presidential election of 2004 and we also apply this approach to predict the control of the U.S. Senate in 2006. This class exercise has proved to be a useful “capstone project” which requires students to address a complicated problem by synthesizing multiple sources of available data and applying a combination of statistical methods. Using simulation-based approaches for addressing the multistage nature of presidential elections and control-of-Congress processes can be valuable and instructive for students of statistics and political science, and can be beneficial to the media in providing consumers with political news.

Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Joseph Biden’s victory in 2020, and how do they differ from Republican and Democratic coalitions of the past? Does the Democratic victory signal a long-term decline for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections? Change and Continuity in the 2020 and 2022 Elections explores those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent presidential and midterm elections, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. The authors present the latest National Election Studies data to help students see how social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues affect voting behavior, turnout, and ultimately the results of presidential and congressional elections. Readers will come away with a better understanding of what the most recent elections mean for the future of American politics.

The election of a president and vice president is a fundamental way to fill thevacuum of power . However, in the 2019 presidential election , a striking phenomenon with the involvement of religion in the political contest, so that there are many pros and cons if it does not suitable withthe desire of each religious elite in the 2019 presidential election. T he involvement of religion in the presidential election raises questions such as , first, how religion was involved in the presidential election process; Second, how religious discourse takes place in legitimating a particular process in the presidential election; and Third, how does religious involvement in the presidential election bring consequences to the life of society as a whole . The method used in this paper is a qualitative method. T he qualitative method is often referred as the generic qualitative method which is to find out several indications of the 2019 presidential election with the involvement of religion as a marker of identity. While the primary data source obtained from various online media in the form of writing, or in the form of direct coverage, and analysis of the author's using descriptive analysis. During presidential election, the religious elite consider emotion al feeling as a priority so that they come out of the core problem. So that religion in the presidential election is only an instrument of political interests and can not be avoided again through movements that ultimately lead to pros and cons among fellow religious elites. Thus the professionali sm of religion will be difficult to create because it is caused by religious elites who legitimize religion into the practical politic s.

Fierce debate continues over Taiwan's 2004 presidential election. The election-eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu is the pivotal factor in these discussions. Most analyses of the shooting incident have been more focussed on inferring the truth about this criminal case, and debate about whether or not the incumbent president benefited from this shooting. (1) However, when solving a criminal case without significant and direct evidence, any hypothetic deductive logic is just one possibility. The opposition, which lost the presidential election by 0.2 per cent of the vote, accused the incumbent bloc of using the shooting incident to mislead voters into sympathising with Chen Shui-bian. (2) These contentions inevitably caused the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results to be questioned. The concept of legitimacy contrasts with the concept of legality. As a great deal of the classic literature in politics and jurisprudence has already discussed these concepts, no attempt is made in this article to discuss them in detail. The focus here is on forward-looking thinking--how to reduce the possibility that any such incident like the 2004 election-eve shooting could occur in the future. (3) The article begins by considering the normative aspect: Should any legitimacy be given to the outcome of the presidential election? Then the positive aspect is examined: How do we redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results? How do we avert doubts about the legitimacy of future presidential elections? Accordingly, the specific purposes of this article are: firstly, to show the difficulty in resolving the current dissension over the legitimacy of the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election results during the process of seeking answers for the normative and positive questions; and secondly, to remind researchers of the importance of the forward-looking aspect of this serious issue. Methodology The focus here is on the benchmark approach abstracted from Ronald Coase by Bingyuang Hsiung. (4) Coase's approach can be summarised as follows: setting a reference point, treating this point as a benchmark and then comparing and contrasting this benchmark with the selected topics. Hsiung also suggests: we apply the benchmark approach, we have to consider why to choose this benchmark point but not the others. (5) In economics, benefit and cost are mentioned in the same breath, and cost-benefit analysis is also a useful tool in many studies. For example, if the expected benefits of a specific policy are greater than the expected costs, then implementing the policy will add to total social welfare. Nonetheless, the benefit of Taiwan's presidential election results without legitimacy problems may not be easy to measure. For individuals, the benefits of legitimacy are highly subjective. When the outcome of an election is legitimate, some people may be quite satisfied with it, but others may not care. How can we compare, for different people, the degree of benefit in having no legitimacy problem; or how can we use a measurable index to make comparisons? Even if some indirect measurements are used, the results of comparison may not be clear. When the outcome of an election lacks legitimacy and needs resolution, using the concept of costs is clear and objective. In the case of the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan, if a re-vote is one method to redeem its legitimacy, then the functional expenses that Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC) would pay for holding the re-vote is a definite cost. If a multi-party political consultation is another method to redeem the legitimacy of the presidential election results, then the resources that the two rival blocs need to invest in the consultation are measurable costs. For instance, each bloc may need to hold its own plenary session to reach common consent, and the two blocs may negotiate many times with each other about confirming the legitimacy of the presidential election results. …

One needs only to look at recent presidential and congressional election results to see a growing public unhappiness with government. In 1992 Texas billionaire Ross Perot ran for president as a third-party protest candidate and received nearly 20 percent of the vote, the largest number of votes cast for a third-party candidate in a U.S. presidential election (NBC News, 1993). During the 1994 midterm elections, the Republican party gained control of both houses of Congress as well as many state legislatures, ending nearly four decades of control by the Democratic party. With their new majorities, Republicans quickly worked to implement provisions of the Contract with America (Gingrich, Armey, and the House Republicans, 1994), which emphasized shifting many federal government responsibilities to state and local governments. There is also a growing disaffection with what is broadly termed welfare and the associated public and nonprofit social work and human services organizations. Although welfare, as reflected by Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), is a small proportion of the total public expenditure, it nonetheless symbolizes the perceived failure of government to deal effectively with social realities. Welfare bashing is a frequent topic of radio and television talk shows. Although such popular discourse may be valuable in a democracy, it places social work professionals and managers in a defensive posture. These realities make the social work manager's job more difficult. In the near future the changing political realities and their social and cultural context will bring additional challenges to the social work profession and to those who manage social work and human services organizations. Leaders from both political parties are responding to a common set of economic and social forces and assumptions - even though they disagree on specifics - that are driving them to seek solutions to the federal budget deficit, rampant increases in expenditures for various entitlement programs, and decades of growth in federal regulations that affect almost every aspect of Americans' lives. It is almost certain that what is termed the devolution revolution (Nathan, 1995) will continue regardless of the November 1996 election outcome. Budget controls, selective tax reductions, caps on entitlement spending, and means-tested benefits tied to socially responsible behavior are currently being implemented. In addition, block grants with reduced funding levels and regulations and the increased use of purchase-of-service (POS) agreements and other means to draw a wide range of nonprofit and for-profit organizations into service provision will further complicate and disaggregate an already dizzying arena within which social work managers must function. This article discusses the management challenges facing social work, including changes in the U.S. economic and social structure, changes in public policy that have greatly increased the diversity and competitiveness of social services providers, and the development of a growing public discontent with government organizations. This article reviews two management approaches - total quality management and reengineering - and considers the implications for social work management. Historic Policies Affecting Social Work Management Although it may be tempting to see these new realities as a current political and partisan phenomenon, there is a larger, historical reality underlying the developments changing social welfare. Progressive Movement and the New Deal The progressive movement emerged in the United States during the late 19th century (Reid, 1995). Progressives promoted a rational, public, social sciences-based government response to social problems that emphasized economic regulation, meritocracy, social insurance, and other protections, as well as the professionalization of services. Progressives were optimistic and humane, and they promoted an environmental view of human behavior that was in contrast to the 19th-century view of individual character and will as explanations of the shortcomings of society. …

Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty

Potensi suara pemilih pemula pada pemilu 2024 di Kota Cilegon mencapai setengahnya dari jumlah keseluruhan pemilih di Kota Cilegon. Namun, orientasi politik pemilih pemula belum jelas sehingga Komisi Pemilihan Umum Daerah Kota Cilegon melakukan sosialisasi politik bagi pemilih pemula. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran Komisi Pemilihan Umum Daerah dalam memberikan sosialisasi politik bagi pemilih pemula di Kota Cilegon Provinsi Banten. Metode penelitian adalah deskriptif kualitatif. Pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah dengan wawancara dan dokumentasi kemudian menggunakan teknik analisis data reduksi data, penyajian data, dan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menyebutkan bahwa secara umum peran Komisi Pemilihan Umum Kota Cilegon dalam melaksanakan sosialisasi politik bagi pemilih pemula untuk persiapan pemilihan umum presiden dan kepala daerah pada tahun 2024/2025 telah dilaksanakan yaitu melalui pelaksanaan sosialisasi ke sekolah maupun melalui media sosial dan radio lokal. Namun masih banyak kekurangan seperti belum terlaksananya sosialisasi bagi seluruh sekolah yang ada karena dihentikannya program sosialisasi secara tatap muka akibat dari pandemi Covid-19 serta masih belum optimalnya pelaksanaan sosialisasi secara daring. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tersebut, perlu ada perhatian khusus dari Komisi Pemilihan Umum kepada para pemilih pemula untuk memberikan sosialisasi politik terkait dengan Pemilihan Presiden yang akan datang agar pemilih pemula dapat berpartisipasi secara benar dan menghasilkan Pilpres yang berkualitas.
 
 Kata Kunci: Peran; Komisi Pemilihan Umum; Sosialisasi; Pemilih pemula.

This paper investigates the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the stock market, both domestically and internationally. The study combines GARCH and ARIMA models, utilizing Excel and R for data processing, visualization, and computation. It comprehensively considers multiple indices and gathers and analyzes data from three key time points. As a result, the effect of the election on the stock market is reflected in the index as follows: the U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ) initially experienced slight declines followed by substantial increases, showing an overall upward trend. Generally, the daily returns of the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index exhibit positive spillover effects on the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index. The 2016 U.S. presidential election caused volatility in the U.S. stock markets mentioned above, which in turn affected stock market movements in Shanghai and Hong Kong, resulting in interconnected effects. This paper provides a new perspective on studying the effects of U.S. presidential elections on stock markets. The conclusions of this study provide references and assistance for future research in predicting the impact of new U.S. presidential elections on stock markets, which are also applicable to elections in multiple countries.

How often and when have fall presidential general election campaigns during the past 50 years been decisive in determining which presidential candidate would receive the plurality of the national popular vote? This article addresses these questions using data from the Gallup Poll, the National Election Studies, and actual election returns for the 14 presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. Based on an analysis of four measures of net effects of general election campaigns from after the national party conventions until election day, there is some evidence of campaigns being decisive in 5 of the 14 elections examined. Campaigns after the conventions were probably decisive in two elections, the 1948 and 1960 contests, and possibly made the difference in the outcomes of the 1976, 1980, and 2000 elections. A conservative estimate is that campaigns conducted after the conventions have probably been decisive in about a quarter of presidential elections since 1948.

Examinations of voter turnout in local and national elections have generally been flawed by comparisons of samples from unlike populations and failures to employ appropriate multivariate techniques. Utilizing data from a single national sample, presidential and local electorates are compared. The results point to the similarities between the two, with geographic region and interest in politics being the foremost distinguishing factors. In addition to these variables, strength of partisanship, length of residence in the community, age, and education best discriminate between voters and nonvoters in both presidential and local elections.

HE POLITICAL ROLE of Negro citizens in northern industrial cities has been described and discussed in numerous reports and commentaries on Negro political behavior, particularly in reference to presidential and gubernatorial elections.' In presidential elections, for example, the best available data indicate that Negro voters have been supporting the Democratic party since 1936, by contrast to a history of strong allegiance to the Republican party in the seventeen elections from Reconstruction through 1932.2 Moreover, it is evident that the northward migration of southern Negroes, plus the accelerated migration to California,3 has served to enlarge the numerical force of the Negro body politic. In the single decade from 1940 to 1950, for example, Negro migrants accounted for more than 50 per cent of the increase in potential Negro voters in various northern cities (Table I). In several outstanding cases, Negro migrants accounted for no less than 80 per cent of the increment.4 As a consequence of such increments, Negro voters in northern and western industrial cities have achieved a balance-of-power position in local, state and national elections. On the national level, this position was notably effective in contributing to Mr. Truman's dramatic victory in the presidential election of 1948. When one recalls that his victory would not have been possible without the electoral votes of California, Illinois, and Ohio, and that he managed to

eroG .v hsuB and Its Disguises: Freeing Bush v. Gore from Its Hall of Mirrors

The dramatic fall of Slobodan Milosevic, at first president of Serbia between 1989 and 1997 and, from 1997 to October 2000, president of the new Yugoslavia which includes only Serbia and Montenegro, closed a ten-year period during which Serbia isolated itself from the rest of Europe and, alone with Croatia, was ruled in an authoritarian manner apparently irrespective of the consequences for the country. The domination of Milosevic over Serbia, which began in the last years of the communist regime, was confirmed at the first multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections of December 1990. At the presidential election, Milosevic was popularly elected as a moderate former communist against Vuk Draskovic, whose platform was anti-communist but also was then virulently nationalistic. At the parliamentary election, Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) obtained 194 out of 250 seats, the Serbian Renaissance Movement (SRM) of Draskovic was second with 19 seats.KeywordsPublic PolicyInternational RelationPresidential ElectionCommunist RegimeParliamentary ElectionThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

We use the distribution of responses to the Gallup poll's "generic" House vote question (i.e., "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you like to see win in your congressional district?") to forecast the Republican-Democratic vote split in presidential year congressional elections. Although these responses consistently offer an overly optimistic picture of the Democrats' prospects, they nonetheless serve as the basis of accurate forecasts.

The political opposition in Democratic Republic of Congo reamins less studied in studies on the dynamics of democratic transition in this country for two reasons. It is about the omission of this component in the constitutionalist process after independance and the long duration of military government come to power by coup or armed insurrection. Consequently, this article proposes to operate three variables to study congolese political opposition. Institutional determinants (related to the party system, methods of voting systems), the legal expression of the opposition and finaly, the nature and charisma of congolese opposition leaders. Anyway, the congolese political opposition has its origins in an intra-party struggle to evolve into an inter-party oppositon in its fight for the conquest of state power. It remains true that on the three democratic experiences relating to the presidential elections, the congolese political, by forming electoral coalitions, managed to beat the ruling party once in the presidential elections. Nevertheless, the strategies of this opposition remain limited in terms of effectiveness because of the nature of the parties that compose it, political transhumance, the ego between its leaders in a political system combining victory in the presidential and legislative elections to govern without alchemy of cohabition.