Model Development of Time-Dependent Evacuation Risk

The growing number of crisis situations around the world in recent years has highlighted the urgent need to improve the capability of Emergency Response Systems. When an emergency happens, the most important response is to promptly evacuate victims or potential victims from dangerous areas to safe places. The use of decision support systems can not only improve the efficiency of evacuation but also reduce losses on life and property. But existing computer-based decision support systems mainly aim at simplifying the evacuation process. The evacuation plans produced by them are difficult to follow and Emergency Response Personnel (ERP) cannot readily access emergency evacuation information in real time. In this paper, we present Blue Arrow, a web-based spatially-enabled decision support system for emergency evacuation planning. Based on their specific requirements, ERP can use the Blue Arrow System to generate various evacuation plans that have intuitive turn-by-turn instructions. These evacuation plans depend not only on the spatial information, but also on the underlying road network information. The Blue Arrow System implements different evacuation plans using the different variants of CCRP algorithm that focus on optimizing various aspects of the evacuation planning process including evacuation time and capacity.

When the occupant density of buildings is large enough, evacuees are prone to congestion during emergency evacuation, which leads to the extension of the overall escape time. Especially for multi-exit buildings, it’s a challenging problem to afford an effective evacuation plan. In this paper, a novel evacuation planning algorithm applied to multi-exit buildings is proposed, which is based on an indoor route network model. Firstly, evacuees are grouped by their location proximity, then all groups are approximately equally classified into several evacuation zones, each of which has only one safe exit. After that, all evacuation groups in the same zone are sorted by their shortest path length, then the time window of each evacuation group occupying the safe exit is calculated in turn. In the case of congestion at the safe exit, the departure time of each evacuation group is delayed in its arrival order. The objectives of the proposed algorithm include minimizing the total evacuation time of all evacuees, the travel time of each evacuee, avoiding traffic congestion, balancing traffic loads among different exits, and achieving high computational efficiency. Case studies are conducted to examine the performance of our algorithm. The influences of group number, group size, evacuation speed on the total evacuation time are discussed on a single-exit network, and that of partitioning methods and evacuation density on the performance and applicability in different congestion levels are also discussed on a multi-exit network. Results demonstrate that our algorithm has a higher efficiency and performs better for evacuations with a large occupant density.

Evacuation under flooded conditions: Experimental investigation of the influence of water depth on walking behaviors

With the progress of construction technology, the modern buildings become more and more complicated and large-sized. It is difficult to avoid sudden and catastrophic emergency events for interior buildings. Hence, it is very important to establish an evacuation model to simulate evacuation behavior of pedestrians under real condition and make a scientific and effective evacuation plan. For handling with the problems of emergency evacuation path in buildings, an improved cellular automata model based on ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO) is proposed. The proposed model considers the neighbors moving rules of cellular automata and law of export selection rule is used as heuristic information of ant colony optimization algorithm, it reflects the behavior of personnel path choice more really. Finally, the model has been applied to simulate the whole evacuation process in a classroom. By simulating the process of pedestrian evacuation with the model, the results show that the proposed model could achieve shorter evacuation time than basic ACO, it's feasible for solving evacuation planning problem.

The contribution of tsunami evacuation analysis to evacuation planning in Chile: Applying a multi-perspective research design

Indonesia, as an archipelago located in the "Ring of Fire," has a high intensity of volcanic activity. Mount Kaba, one of the active volcanoes in Bengkulu Province, is classified as a type A volcano due to its significant eruption history since 1600. Mount Kaba poses significant hazards, including lava flows, pyroclastic material ejections, and toxic gases. This study focuses on areas vulnerable to Mount Kaba's disasters, covering the sub-districts of Selupu Rejang, Sindang Dataran, and Sindang Kelingi. The study aims to understand the impact of Mount Kaba's activity on the community, the disaster potential affecting community awareness, the disaster risk level due to Mount Kaba's volcanic activity, and the coordinated mitigation and evacuation plans. The results show that Mount Kaba's activity has both positive and negative impacts on the surrounding communities. Positive impacts include increased soil fertility, tourism opportunities, and economic growth. However, negative impacts include disruptions to social activities, economic losses, and environmental damage. This study highlights the importance of increasing community awareness about Mount Kaba's disaster risks and the importance of disaster mitigation. Recommendations include continuous educational programs, improved early warning systems, adequate infrastructure development, and regular evacuation drills. Good coordination between local government, BPBD, educational institutions, and non-governmental organizations is crucial to ensuring community preparedness for potential Mount Kaba disasters.

SUMMARYThis paper develops a decision‐support model for transit‐based evacuation planning under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty refers to the uncertainty associated with the number of transit‐dependent evacuees. A robust optimization model is proposed to determine the optimal pick‐up points for evacuees to assemble, and allocate available buses to transport the assembled evacuees between the pick‐up locations and different public shelters. The model is formulated as a mixed‐integer linear program and is solved via a cutting plane scheme. The numerical example based on the Sioux Falls network demonstrates that the robust plan yields lower total evacuation time and is reliable in serving the realized evacuee demand. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The process of emergency evacuation of large buildings has been modeled by computing the theoretically most efficient paths for occupants and then attempt ing to realise this recommenda tion in evacuation planning and management. A simulation approach is presented which reverses this sequence. The evacuation behavior of occu pants is modeled to predict and analyze the choices that lead to serious bottlenecks and an improvement strategy is developed from these results. An explanation of the basis for the model is presented, followed by examination of results of applying the model to Pauls' evacuation data and to a university building with complex exit structures.

The isolated community evacuation problem with mixed integer programming

Selecting vehicle dispatching plan for typhoon emergency evacuation based on fault-tolerance analysis

Emergency evacuation in public places becomes a research focus in recent decades. One major objective of evacuation is to maximize the efficiency of the whole evacuation system. The paper proposes a multiobjective evacuation route assignment model to plan an optimal egress route set for the individual evacuees. The three objectives in the proposed model are to minimize the total evacuation time, minimize the total travel distance of all the evacuees and minimize the congestion during the evacuation process. These objectives need to be satisfied simultaneously while some of them conflict with each other. The travel speed on each road segment is related with the time and the number of evacuees on it during a certain time period. The congestion of a road segment is modeled as the density of evacuees passing it in time and space dimensions. The evacuation route assignment problem can be treated as a combinatorial optimization problem. A multiobjective optimization model based genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the proposed evacuation routing problem. Wuhan Sport Center in Wuhan city of China was taken as the experiment scenario to test the performance of the proposed algorithm. The results showed that it can provide some system optimal evacuation plans. Meanwhile, the multi-objective optimization model based genetic algorithm can produce a pareto optimal set rather than single optimal point, thus the model can give alternative strategies for the evacuation policy makers.

Practitioners engaged in implementing evacuations, large and small, are keenly aware of the interdisciplinary and multimodal nature of such events. This special issue of Natural Hazards Review presents emerging scholarship that will better inform real-life practice in the nearand long-term. A nexus of research and practice is vital to developing evacuation-planning models, which ultimately results in better plans, policies, and successful evacuations. This issue presents leading research that addresses key aspects of evacuation planning, including the role of communication and technology, evaluating existing models predictions for hurricane evacuation response curves, understanding the interdisciplinary nature of evacuationmodeling, the role of transit, and the development of a destination choice model. The past decade has seen tremendous advancements in the theory and practice ofmass-evacuation transportation planning, operations, and management. The motivation for these developments has come from a recent history of high-profile disasters and several highly publicized unsuccessful evacuations that have focused international attention on the need to better prepare for and carry out emergency evacuations. These events, in particular those that involved intentional man-made acts, have also brought the topic of evacuation planning to the attention of a wider audience, including those who never envisioned the need to conduct mass evacuations or to include emergency transportation preparedness as part of their responsibilities. To move forward the discussion of critical needs in evacuation and to promote the exchange of ideas, practices, policies, and emerging knowledge from all fields involved in this subject, the Gulf Coast Research Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency in cooperation with the Stephenson Disaster Management Institute at Louisiana StateUniversity cohosted the secondNational Evacuation Conference (NEC). The conference, held in February 2012 in New Orleans, brought together hundreds of experts from government, private industry, academia, national laboratories, and not-for-profit organizations in the fields of emergency management, transportation planning, engineering, law, sociological and behavioral sciences, human and animal medicine, and law enforcement, among others, to foster an interdisciplinary exchange of ideas in evacuation planning and management. The event was sponsored by a number of stakeholders, including AARP and the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The conference included more than 100 speakers from throughout the United States and numerous other countries who are seeking ways to accommodate the needs of all people before, during, and after major disasters. The presentations at the NEC illustrated the diversity of interests and needs in evacuation, as well as the knowledge and expertise that is being focused on evacuation-related issues. In summary, the NEC highlighted the importance of the interdisciplinary and multimodal nature of evacuations. We see an emerging nexus between research and practice as successful evacuations stem from many disparate professionals working in a multidimensional framework. To disseminate the emerging knowledge from the conference more widely, its organizers have partnered with ASCE to develop this special issue of the Natural Hazards Review. Five of the papers included in this issue were the best-reviewed works from the conference that covered information on a specific topic, but that also exemplified the overall theme of this special issue. The following paragraphs briefly summarize these works and the contributions that they make to the field. The detail and complexity of evacuation models has increased significantly over the past decade and a half. Whereas some of these developments have occurred because of advances in computational speed and power, much of it has resulted from the series of major evacuations that have permitted observations of evacuee behavior, traffic routing, and other aspects of evacuations that were previously unavailable. The papers by Trainor et al., Cheng et al., and Koshute each focus on aspects of modeling that develop and analyze evacuation processes. The work by Koshute uses evacuation data from several hurricanes to assess the effectiveness of S-curve and sequential logit models used to forecast evacuation response. The results of this research show that both of these remain insufficient as techniques to reliably predict evacuee behavior. Research conducted by Cheng et al. focuses on the destination end of the evacuation travel process. In their paper, the authors describe the development of a new model to estimate evacuee destinations based on an assortment of key predictive variables. Analyses of the performance of the model showed statistically significant correlations between modelgenerated forecasts and those observed during actual hurricane evacuation events. In another paper focusing on evacuation modeling, Trainor et al. suggest the need and importance of adopting an interdisciplinary approach to evacuation modeling. Although no results are presented, the authors propose a framework that integrates empirical and theoretical knowledge from the social sciences and transportation planning and engineeringwithin a new five-stepmodeling process. This paper is likely to guide an emerging area of research into operationalizing future models that can become more interdisciplinary and multimodal. The importance of effective communication during evacuations cannot be overemphasized. The issuance of guidance on who needs to evacuate, when they need to leave, and what routes and destinations are available to them is vitally important to evacuees and must be conveyed in ways that are timely, accurate, and useful. The paper by Taaffe et al. used data collected in the aftermath of two hurricanes in the Charleston, South Carolina, region to

Lexicography in evacuation planning refers to prioritizing and structuring the evacuation process in emergencies. It provides a systematic method for hierarchically addressing multiple objectives, ensuring that the most critical factors are resolved first. This work focuses on such an approach to the evacuation planning problem for the transit-based network. Lexicographically dynamic flow determines the optimal flow in a network like the maximum and minimum cost flow. The term lexicography is based on lexicographic ordering and refers to sorting or optimizing solutions in a way that respects a lexicographic priority. Such a priority can be considered based on the need of the network structures, objectives, demands, etc. Multi-objective optimization problems where secondary objectives are considered only after primary objectives are met also use such a technique.

Natural disasters including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and fires often involve substantial physical and mental impacts on affected populations and thus are public health priorities. Limited research shows that vulnerable populations such as the low-income, socially isolated migrant and seasonal farmworkers (MSFW) are particularly susceptible to the effects of natural disasters. This research project assessed the awareness, perceived risk, and practices regarding disaster preparedness and response resources and identified barriers to utilization of community and government services during or after a natural disaster among Latino MSFWs’ and their families. Qualitative (N = 21) focus groups (3) and quantitative (N = 57) survey methodology was implemented with Latino MSFWs temporarily residing in rural eastern North Carolina to assess perceived and actual risk for natural disasters. Hurricanes were a top concern among the sample population, many participants shared they lacked proper resources for an emergency (no emergency kit in the house, no evacuation plan, no home internet, a lack of knowledge of what should be included in an emergency kit, etc.). Transportation and language were found to be additional barriers. Emergency broadcasts in Spanish and text message alerts were identified by the population to be helpful for disaster alerts. FEMA, American Red Cross, local schools and the migrant clinic were trusted places for assistance and information. In summary, tailored materials, emergency alerts, text messages, and news coverage concerning disaster threats should be provided in the population’s native language and when feasible delivered in a culturally appropriate mechanism such as “charlas” (talks) and brochures.

Communication on Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) is one of the essential elements of institutional preparedness in disaster-prone areas. Pakistan is prone to the occurrence of both natural and human-caused disasters that can interfere with the learning process and endanger the lives of students. This research investigates DRRM communication practices in the public colleges of the district of Chiniot, Punjab, in Pakistan. Following a qualitative research design, it relies on semi-structured interviews held with twenty principals of public colleges to investigate the current communication system, emergency information delivery processes, evacuation planning and school drills, and disaster management authorities' coordination, as well as issues in introducing school safety measures. Thematic analysis of interview data showed that most principals are highly aware of the DRRM communication systems. Mobile communication, teacher-mediated instructions, and announcements are the general ways of sharing information in emergencies in colleges. Most institutions have evacuation plans, although not all of them have regular drills. Principals also noted that they had coordination with education departments and the disaster management authorities, especially in case of a large-scale disaster like the floods. Also, in spite of these advantages, several weaknesses were outlined, such as power outages, unstable communication networks, lack of emergency resources, and insufficient staff-specific DRRM training. The research finds that the conceptual framework of the DRRM communication structures in the outer colleges of Punjab has been developed, whereas its practical implementation is limited by the systemic and infrastructural constraints.