Model selection and parameter estimation in tumor growth models using approximate Bayesian computation-ABC

In this paper, a mathematical model for a solid avascular tumor growth under the effect of periodic therapy is studied. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the global stability of tumor free equilibrium are given. The conditions under which there exists a unique periodic solution to the model are determined and we also show that the unique periodic solution is global attractor of all other positive solutions.

Cancer is an important lethal disease. Therefore, many studies have focused on the drug delivery in the cancer treatment in order to obtain a better survival rate. In recent years, personalized medicine for the cancer treatment has been considered by researchers. One of the methods for implementing the personalized medicine is to apply mathematical models of tumor growth and to study the dynamic behavior of the tumor response to drugs. One of the main important factors of the model is drug resistance that may lead to failure of the treatment. In this study, a mathematical model of tumor growth of melanoma cancer is proposed for mouse models. In the presented model, drug sensitivity and drug resistance are considered. Parameters of the model are estimated using experimental data measured of mouse models. The mice were treated with a signaling pathway inhibitor (Notch inhibitor) of cancer stem cells.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for infectious disease modelling

<div>Abstract<p>Oncology drug efficacy is evaluated in mouse models by continuously monitoring tumor volumes, which can be mathematically described by growth kinetic models. Although past studies have investigated various growth models, their reliance on small datasets raises concerns about whether their findings are truly representative of tumor growth in diverse mouse models under different vehicle or drug treatments. In this study, we systematically evaluated six parametric models (exponential, exponential quadratic, monomolecular, logistic, Gompertz, and von Bertalanffy) and the semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) on fitting tumor volume data from more than 30,000 mice in 930 experiments conducted in patient-derived xenografts, cell line–derived xenografts, and syngeneic models. We found that the exponential quadratic model is the best parametric model and can adequately model 87% studies, higher than other models including von Bertalanffy (82%) and Gompertz (80%) models; the latter is often considered the standard growth model. At the mouse group level, 7.5% of growth data could not be fit by any parametric model and were fitted by GAM. We show that endpoint gain integrated in time, a GAM-derived efficacy metric, is equivalent to exponential growth rate, a metric we previously proposed and conveniently calculated by simple algebra. Using five studies on paclitaxel, anti-PD1 antibody, cetuximab, irinotecan, and sorafenib, we showed that exponential and exponential quadratic models achieve similar performance in uncovering drug mechanism and biomarkers. We also compared exponential growth rate–based association analysis and exponential modeling approach in biomarker discovery and found that they complement each other. Modeling methods herein are implemented in an open-source R package freely available at <a href="https://github.com/hjzhou988/TuGroMix" target="_blank">https://github.com/hjzhou988/TuGroMix</a>.</p>Significance:<p>We present a general strategy for mathematically modeling tumor growth in mouse models using data from 30,000 mice and show that modeling and nonmodeling approaches are complementary in biomarker discovery and drug mechanism studies.</p></div>

Multi-Scale Imaging to Enable Multi-Scale Modeling for Predicting Tumor Growth and Treatment Response

Using mathematical models to simulate dynamic biological processes has a long history. Over the past couple of decades or so, quantitative approaches have also made their way into cancer research. An increasing number of mathematical, physical, computational and engineering techniques have been applied to various aspects of tumor growth, with the ultimate goal of understanding the response of the cancer population to clinical intervention. So-called in silico trials that predict patient-specific response to various dose schedules or treatment combinations and sequencing are on the way to becoming an invaluable tool to optimize patient care. Herein we describe fundamentals of mathematical modeling of tumor growth and tumor-host interactions, and summarize some of the seminal and most prominent approaches.

Low-grade gliomas (LGGs) represent a significant proportion of hemispheric gliomas in adults. Although less aggressive than glioblastomas (GBMs), they have a broad range of biologic behavior, and often a limited prognosis. The aim of the present study was to explore LGG growth kinetics through a combination of routine MRI imaging and a novel adaptation of a mathematical tumor model. MRI imaging in 14 retrospectively identified grade II LGGs that showed some tumor enhancement was used to assess tumor radii at two separate time-points. This information was combined with a reaction-diffusion partial-differential equation model of tumor growth to calculate diffusion (D) and proliferation (ρ) coefficients for each tumor, representing measures of tumor invasiveness and cellular multiplication, respectively. The results were compared to previously published data on GBMs. The average value of D was 0.034 mm(2)/day and ρ was 0.0056/day. Grade II LGGs had a broad range of D and ρ. On average, the proliferation coefficient ρ was significantly lower than previously published values for GBM, by about an order of magnitude. The diffusion coefficient, modeling invasiveness, however, was only slightly lower but without statistical significance. It was possible to calculate detailed growth kinetic parameters for some LGGs, potentially providing a new way to assess tumor aggressiveness and possibly gauge prognosis. Even within a single-grade (WHO II), LGGs were found to have broad range of D and ρ, possibly correlating to their variable biologic behavior. Overall, the model parameters suggest that LGG is less aggressive than GBM based primarily on a lower index of tumor proliferation rather than on lesser invasiveness.

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Our aim in this paper is to study a mathematical model for tumor growth and lactate exchanges in a glioma. We prove the existence of nonnegative (i.e. biologically relevant) solutions and, under proper assumptions, the uniqueness of the solution. We also state the permanence of the tumor when necrosis is not taken into account in the model and obtain linear stability results. We end the paper with numerical simulations.

We implement a massively parallel population Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation (PMC-ABC) method for estimating diffusion coefficients, sizes and concentrations of diffusing nanoparticles in liquid suspension using confocal laser scanning microscopy and particle tracking. The method is based on the joint probability distribution of diffusion coefficients and the time spent by a particle inside a detection region where particles are tracked. We present freely available central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) versions of the analysis software, and we apply the method to characterize mono- and bidisperse samples of fluorescent polystyrene beads.

Multiphase modelling of desmoplastic tumour growth

Event Abstract Back to Event Statistical uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of intracellular signaling models - through approximate Bayesian computation and variance based global sensitivity analysis Olivia Eriksson1, 2*, Alexandra Jauhiainen1, 3, Sara Maad Sasane4, Anu G Nair5, Carolina Sartorius4 and Jeanette Hellgren Kotaleski2, 5, 6 1 Contributed equally to this work, Sweden 2 Stockholm University, Department of Numerical Analysis and Computer Science, Sweden 3 AstraZeneca AB R&D, Early Clinical Biometrics, Sweden 4 Lund University, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Sweden 5 KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Computer Science and Communication, Sweden 6 Karolinska Institute, Department of Neuroscience, Sweden Computational dynamical models describing intracellular signaling pathways of nerve cells are increasing in size and complexity as more information is obtained from experiments. Models describing protein interactions within neurons can contain over hundred protein reactions [1, 2]. These models are built from knowledge about the interaction topology, inferred from e.g. gene knock-out experiments, as well as from experimental quantitative data describing the input-output relationship of the observed system. The quantitative data are often sparse as compared to the size of the system, and translating the experimental information into dynamical models often results in large uncertainties in the parameter (e.g reaction rates) values. This uncertainty is partly due to the sparseness in experimental time series data (practical unidentifiability), but it is also an intrinsic feature of the modeled system (structural unidentifiability) and could reflect the possibility for biological variation [3]; in many biological systems the same function can be achieved in partly different ways due to degeneracy and redundancy. Here we investigate the extent of this parameter uncertainty, in a model describing calcium (Ca)-dependent activation of Calmodulin (CaM), Protein phosphatase 2B (PP2B) and Ca/CaM-dependent protein kinase II (CamKII) [4], which is an intracellular pathway of importance to synaptic plasticity. We presume that the structure of the model is correct and then characterize the uncertainty in the parameters based on data. This is done by sampling the subspace of parameter values which has an equally good fit to data (corresponding to the “viable space” in [5]), through a statistical approach known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [6]. ABC has been proposed for parameter estimation in system biology models previously, albeit in slightly different settings, e.g. [7, 8], and can be applied to a wide range of problems. In order to characterize the viable space efficiently with several experimental datasets, we employ multivariate probability distributions called copulas as a part of the ABC sampling. The result is a multivariate posterior distribution for the parameters, which represents how much they are constrained by the data (i.e. the uncertainty) as illustrated in Figure 1 (pairwise plots of viable space for four parameters indicating constraints and dependencies before and after calibration to data). The next step is to look into how the parameter uncertainty is translated to uncertainty of the predictions made from the model. We also investigate the role and importance of different parameters, with respect to different model outputs including the predictions, by means of global sensitivity analysis [9]. Figure 2 illustrates the sensitivity of one of the outputs calculated by a method based on the decomposition of the variance [10, 11, 12], showing different types of sensitivity measures. Finally, we explore how the sensitivity of different subsets of parameters change as different parts of the viable space are investigated, which is shown in Figure 3, where sensitivity profiles are clustered into groups with different sensitivity characteristics. Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Acknowledgements This research was supported by funding from the Swedish e-Science Research Centre and the Human Brain Project References [1] Gutierrez-Arenas O, Eriksson O, Hellgren Kotaleski J (2014) Segregation and Crosstalk of D1 Receptor-Mediated Activation of ERK in Striatal Medium Spiny Neurons upon Acute Administration of Psychostimulants. PLoS Comput Biol 10, e1003445. [2] Nair AG, Gutierrez-Arenas O, Eriksson O, Vincent P, and Hellgren Kotaleski J (2015) Sensing Positive versus Negative Reward Signals through Adenylyl Cyclase-Coupled GPCRs in Direct and Indirect Pathway Striatal Medium Spiny Neurons. J. Neuroscience 35, 14017-14030. [3] Marder E, Goeritz ML, Otopalik AG (2015) Robust circuit rhythms in small circuits arise from variable circuit components and mechanisms. Curr Opin Neurobiol 31, 156-163. [4] Nair AG, Gutierrez-Arenas O, Eriksson O, Jauhiainen A, Blackwell KT and Kotaleski, JH (2014). Modeling intracellular signaling underlying striatal function in health and disease. Progress in molecular biology and translational science, 123, 277 [5] Zamora-Sillero E, Hafner M, Ibig A, Stelling J, and Wagner, A. (2011). Efficient characterization of high-dimensional parameter spaces for systems biology. BMC systems biology 5, 142. [6] Marjoram P, Molitor J, Plagnol V, and Tavare S (2003) Markov chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 100, 15324–15328. [7] Toni T, Welch D, Strelkowa N, Ipsen A, and Stumpf MP. Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems. J R Soc Interface, 6, 187–202. [8] Liepe J, Kirk P, Filippi S, Toni T, Barnes CP, and Stumpf MP. A framework for parameter estimation and model selection from experimental data in systems biology using approximate Bayesian computation. Nat Protoc, 9, 439–456. [9] Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Gatelli D, Saisana M, Tarantola S Global sensitivity analysis: the primer. In Wiley 2008 New York, NY:Wiley. [10] Sobol IM (2001) Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates, Math. Comput. Simul. 55, 271–280. [11] Saltelli A (2002) Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Comp Phys Comm 145, 280 – 297. [12] Halnes G, Ulfhielm E Ljunggren EE, Kotaleski JH and Rospars JP (2009) Modelling and sensitivity analysis of the reactions involving receptor, G-protein and effector in vertebrate olfactory receptor neurons. Journal of computational neuroscience 27, 471-491. Keywords: sensitivity analysis, Approximate Bayesian Computation, copulas, intracellular signalling, Dynamical Modeling, global sensitivity analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, variance decomposition Conference: Neuroinformatics 2016, Reading, United Kingdom, 3 Sep - 4 Sep, 2016. Presentation Type: Investigator presentations Topic: Computational neuroscience Citation: Eriksson O, Jauhiainen A, Maad Sasane S, Nair A, Sartorius C and Hellgren Kotaleski J (2016). Statistical uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of intracellular signaling models - through approximate Bayesian computation and variance based global sensitivity analysis. Front. Neuroinform. Conference Abstract: Neuroinformatics 2016. doi: 10.3389/conf.fninf.2016.20.00014 Copyright: The abstracts in this collection have not been subject to any Frontiers peer review or checks, and are not endorsed by Frontiers. They are made available through the Frontiers publishing platform as a service to conference organizers and presenters. The copyright in the individual abstracts is owned by the author of each abstract or his/her employer unless otherwise stated. Each abstract, as well as the collection of abstracts, are published under a Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 (attribution) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) and may thus be reproduced, translated, adapted and be the subject of derivative works provided the authors and Frontiers are attributed. For Frontiers’ terms and conditions please see https://www.frontiersin.org/legal/terms-and-conditions. Received: 31 May 2016; Published Online: 18 Jul 2016. * Correspondence: PhD. Olivia Eriksson, Contributed equally to this work, Stockholm, Sweden, olivia@kth.se Login Required This action requires you to be registered with Frontiers and logged in. To register or login click here. Abstract Info Abstract The Authors in Frontiers Olivia Eriksson Alexandra Jauhiainen Sara Maad Sasane Anu G Nair Carolina Sartorius Jeanette Hellgren Kotaleski Google Olivia Eriksson Alexandra Jauhiainen Sara Maad Sasane Anu G Nair Carolina Sartorius Jeanette Hellgren Kotaleski Google Scholar Olivia Eriksson Alexandra Jauhiainen Sara Maad Sasane Anu G Nair Carolina Sartorius Jeanette Hellgren Kotaleski PubMed Olivia Eriksson Alexandra Jauhiainen Sara Maad Sasane Anu G Nair Carolina Sartorius Jeanette Hellgren Kotaleski Related Article in Frontiers Google Scholar PubMed Abstract Close Back to top Javascript is disabled. Please enable Javascript in your browser settings in order to see all the content on this page.

Reinforcement learning-based control of tumor growth under anti-angiogenic therapy

Conceptual frameworks for mathematical modeling of tumor growth dynamics

We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

&lt;p&gt;Figure S3&lt;/p&gt;