Modeling Nearshore Processes as Complex Systems

Data mining with a multitude of methodologies is a good basis for the integration of intelligent systems. Small, specialised systems have a large number of feasible solutions, but developing truly adaptive, and still understandable, systems for highly complex systems require domain expertise and more compact approaches at the basic level. This paper focuses on the integration of methodologies in the smart adaptive applications. Statistical methods and arti cial neural networks form a good basis for the data-driven analysis of interactions and fuzzy logic introduces solutions for knowledge-based understanding the system behaviour and the meaning of variable levels. Efficient normalisation, scaling and decomposition approaches are the key methodologies in developing large-scale applications. Linguistic equation (LE) approach originating from fuzzy logic is an efficient technique for these problems. The nonlinear scaling methodology based on advanced statistical analysis is the corner stone in representing the variable meanings in a compact way to introduce intelligent indices for control and diagnostics. The new constraint handling together with generalised norms and moments facilitates recursive parameter estimation approaches for the adaptive scaling. Well-known linear methodologies are used for the steady state, dynamic and case-based modelling in connection with the cascade and interactive structures in building complex large scale applications. To achieve insight and robustness the parameters are de ned separately for the scaling and the interactions. Introduction EK Juuso Intelligent Methods in Modelling and Simulation of Complex Systems 2 SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 ON 1 Steady-State Modelling multiple input, multiple output MIMO response surface methodology RSM multiple input, single output MISO Fuzzy set theory Extension principle Type-2 fuzzy Figure 1: Methodologies for modelling of complex system. EK Juuso Intelligent Method of Modelling and Simulation in Complex Systems SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 3 O N Linguistic fuzzy models Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models Singleton models Fuzzy relational models Figure 2: Combined fuzzy modelling. Artificial neural networks ANN Linear networks multilayer perceptron MLP backpropagation learning Neurofuzzy systems Figure 3: A fuzzy neuron. function expansion Approximate reasoning 2 Decomposition Methodologies EK Juuso Intelligent Methods in Modelling and Simulation of Complex Systems 4 SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 ON Decomposition Figure 4: Decomposition for modelling. Hierarchical clustering Partitioning-based clustering algorithms fuzzy clustering Fuzzy c-means (FCM) Subtractive clustering Neural clustering Robust clustering number of clusters Composite local model Linear parameter varying (LPV) models Piecewise affine (PWA) systems Fuzzy models Multiple neural network systems mixed approach EK Juuso Intelligent Method of Modelling and Simulation in Complex Systems SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 5 O N 3 Adaptive Nonlinear Scaling Membership 3.1 Working point and feasible ranges Figure 5: Nonlinear scaling [28] EK Juuso Intelligent Methods in Modelling and Simulation of Complex Systems 6 SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 ON 3.2 Membership definitions linguistic range linguistic values • the corner points (Figure 5) are good for visualisation; • the parameters suit for tuning; • the coefficients are used in the calculations. 3.3 Adaptation of nonlinear scaling EK Juuso Intelligent Method of Modelling and Simulation in Complex Systems SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 7 O N 4 Intelligent Systems 4.1 LE models 4.2 Hybrid LE systems EK Juuso Intelligent Methods in Modelling and Simulation of Complex Systems 8 SNE 24(1) – 4/2014 ON extension principle linguistification

Linguistic Geometry for autonomous navigation

The evaluation of the emergent behaviour in complex systems requires an analytical framework which allows the observation of different phenomena that take place at different levels. In order to observe the dynamics of complex systems, it is necessary to perform simulations so that both local and the emergent behaviour can be observed. To this end, the way in which complex system simulators are built must be examined so that it will be feasible to model large scale scenarios. In this paper, the use of Model Driven Engineering methodology is proposed to deal with this issue. Among other benefits, it is shown that this methodology allows the representation and simulation of a complex system providing support for the analysis. This analysis is supported by a metamodel which describes the system components that are under study. The application of this methodology to the development of large scale simulators is explored through a case study. This case study analyses a complex socio-technical system: a power grid.

Multiscale modeling in smart cities: A survey on applications, current trends, and challenges

Currently, the dynamic and evolutionary nature of complex systems has gained increasing prominence. Intelligent behavior plays an important role in driving the dynamic evolution of complex systems. However, current agent-specific modeling languages (e.g. AML) struggle to integrate with complex system modeling tools (e.g. SysML), while SysML itself faces challenges in directly modeling and simulating intelligent behavior. Compared to traditional methods that combine agent-specific tools with complex system modeling languages, X language provides an integrated approach to modeling both complex systems and intelligent behaviors. However, its focus remains on single-agent system design, with limited support for multi-agent interaction and learning behavior modeling in agents. To solve this problem, this paper expands the agent class of the X language, and provides multi-agent interaction syntax and reinforcement learning (RL)-based learning ability for the X language. At the same time, based on the MADES agent framework, we implemented the compiler algorithm to compile the extended syntax into the MADES simulation file on the basis of the X language compiler. Finally, a multi-agent autonomous driving model was developed using the Q-learning algorithm to verify the modeling syntax. The results show that the extended X language syntax effectively supports building multi-agent interaction systems with learning capabilities.

Regional complex system simulation optimization through linking governance and environment performance: A case study of water environmental carrying capacity based on the SDES model

This article introduces a novel modular approach to the modelling of nonlinear interconnected complex systems. In the approach, a complex system is decomposed into self-contained easily identified modules to achieve easy linking of individual models. Our proposed approach to modelling differs from the traditional approaches in the following important aspects: (1) it is nonlinear, modular based, systematic, and graphical; (2) it is suitable for fault diagnosis; (3) depending on the level of complexity required, each module may be changed separately quite easily without having to change the other modules; and (4) it draws from the powerful capabilities of the widely used packages of Simulinkand Matlab. These features provide for a generic package that can simulate a complex interconnected system of any description and configuration, as well as simulating any kind of fault anywhere in the system by merely changing the input vector. Examples of two power systems are used as case studies, where it is shown that complex systems can be constructed and simulated easily by appropriately combining components together. The simulation studies show the dynamical behaviour of the two systems with and without faults being applied to them.

This article introduces a novel modular approach to the modelling of nonlinear interconnected complex systems. In the approach, a complex system is decomposed into self-contained easily identified modules to achieve easy linking of individual models. Our proposed approach to modelling differs from the traditional approaches in the following important aspects: (1) it is nonlinear, modular based, systematic, and graphical; (2) it is suitable for fault diagnosis; (3) depending on the level of complexity required, each module may be changed separately quite easily without having to change the other modules; and (4) it draws from the powerful capabilities of the widely used packages of SimulinkTM and MatlabTM . These features provide for a generic package that can simulate a complex interconnected system of any description and configuration, as well as simulating any kind of fault anywhere in the system by merely changing the input vector. Examples of two power systems are used as case studies, where it is shown that complex systems can be constructed and simulated easily by appropriately combining components together. The simulation studies show the dynamical behaviour of the two systems with and without faults being applied to them.

The complexity of problems facing society continues to grow, and decision-makers and problem-solvers are finding many of today's emerging problems to be beyond their capability to adequately address. There is agreement in the literature that problems of this nature are complex system problems, inextricably linked to some highly complex system of systems. Establishing a clear understanding of the specific complex system context is fundamental to the process of understanding and analyzing complex systems and complex system problems across all of the different systems-based disciplines. While complex system context is widely referred to in systems literature, there is no clear characterization of exactly what system context is, making this foundational system concept ambiguous. This research addressed this gap in the systems body of knowledge by providing the needed detail and clarity to the concept of complex system context. A rigorous research methodology, employing the grounded theory method, was used to analyze data collected through a series of semi-structured interviews conducted with individuals reflecting a wide range of systems education and practical experience. Two research questions were identified as integral to increasing the understanding of context within complex systems. (1) What are the constituent elements of complex system context, and what attributes and dimensions characterize these elements? (2) What systems-based framework can be developed for constructing and articulating complex system context? Using the grounded theory method, a theory of system context was constructed, adding to the systems body of knowledge and substantiating a comprehensive and unambiguous theoretical construct for system context within complex systems. Then, based on this theory, a conceptual model to articulate and capture system-specific complex system context was developed---the Complex System Contextual Framework (CSCF). The CSCF shows significant promise for contribution to systems practitioners by supporting the future development of tools to help practitioners capture system context as a part of complex system problem formulation. The research also made a contribution in the area of research methodologies by furthering the use of the grounded theory method in the engineering management and systems engineering domain, an area where its application has been very limited.

Change in a complex system—for example, to its technology, procedures, or information flows— no matter how small, has the potential to create large effects and ripples of disruption. A complex system’s dynamics cannot be fully known, and the effects and disruptions produced by change are difficult to predict. Nonetheless, complex systems can be at least partly understood in terms of patterns in their dynamics, generalizable principles, and mechanisms of control, balance, and adaptation. This panel will focus on complex systems research and what they suggest about how to introduce change into a complex system such that the work system resilience and health are disrupted minimally. Case studies may be discussed, as well; examples of changes to established complex work systems. These changes include introducing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS), additional automation into air traffic control, and new technology into military air combat training.

Contracts as Systems

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a complex system comprising 169 targets and about 230 indicators. Urban Health could be considered a complex system since it deals with 15 out of 17 SDGs, excluding the two related to life below water and life on land. According to the World Health Organization, to achieve the SDGs, countries have committed to organize Urban Health initiatives to improve the social, economic, and physical environments promoting health and sustainability globally. Cities will become more inclusive, safer and more sustainable, which are important driving forces to implement the development equation. To set up a framework to point out that Urban Health is a complex system oriented to the achievement of the SDGs. It has been conducted an extensive literature review on databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Scopus) using keywords in 3 strings combined with Boolean operators: SDGs and Urban Health, Urban Health as Complex System and Urban Health, Environmental Health and Public Health as Complex Systems. In addition, a grey literature review has been carried out. Out of 1005 publications, 21 were eventually included: 14 publications relate to the interdependent relationships between SDGs and Urban Health, with regard to the association between Urban Health and complex system, 3 publication studied the effects and implications of such correlation, 4 focused on Environmental Health and Public Health in relation with the complex system. The selected publications suggested methodologies aimed at setting up an urban health framework to achieve SDGs. There is an initial orientation focused on the study of Urban Health problems aimed at achieving SDGs from the perspective of complex systems. We highlight the need to conduct further studies on a more detailed framework in order to address this type of approach.

Several mathematical formalisms can be exploited to model complex systems, in order to capture different features of their dynamic behavior and leverage any available quantitative or qualitative data. Correspondingly, either quantitative models or qualitative models can be defined; bridging the gap between these two worlds would allow us to simultaneously exploit the peculiar advantages provided by each modeling approach. However, to date, the attempts in this direction have been limited to specific fields of research. In this paper, we propose a novel, general-purpose computational framework, named Fuzzy-mechanistic modeling of compleX systems (FuzzX), for the analysis of hybrid models consisting of a quantitative (or mechanistic) module and a qualitative module that can reciprocally control each other's dynamic behavior through a common interface. FuzzX takes advantage of precise quantitative information about the system through the definition and simulation of the mechanistic module. At the same time, it describes the behavior of components and their interactions that are not known in full details, by exploiting fuzzy logic for the definition of the qualitative module. We applied FuzzX for the analysis of a hybrid model of a complex biochemical system, characterized by the presence of positive and negative feedback regulations. We show that FuzzX is able to correctly reproduce known emergent behaviors of this system in normal and perturbed conditions. We envision that FuzzX could be employed to analyze any kind of complex system when quantitative information is limited, as well as to extend existing mechanistic models with fuzzy modules to describe those components and interactions of the system that are not fully characterized.

Unconventional modelling of complex system via cellular automata and differential evolution

In this paper using a penalty function to obtain satisfactory local models in global modeling of complex systems using neural networks are discussed. Complex systems consist of several subsystems in a cascade structure. As models, non-typical neural multilayer feedforward networks were used. To formulate the global performance index the global resultant criterion, which consist a global error criterion and a penalty function for local errors, approach is proposed. Global resultant criterion required developing of a new backpropagation learning algorithm. The computer simulation results of modelling of the chosen complex system are presented.