Modelling Stochastic Volatility in the Kenyan Securities Market Using Hidden Markov Models

Accurately modeling the growth process of plants in interaction with their environment is important for predicting their biophysical characteristics, referred to as phenotype prediction. Most models are described by discrete dynamic systems in general state-space representation with important domain-specific characteristics: First, plant model parameters have usually clear functional meanings and may be of genetic origins, thus necessitating a precise estimation. Second, critical growth variables, specifically biomass production and dynamic allocation to organs, are hidden variables not accessible to measure. Finally, the difficulty to assess the local plant environment may imply the introduction of process noises in models. Therefore, a precise understanding of the system’s behavior requires the joint estimation of functional parameters, hidden states, and noise parameters. In this paper we describe how a full Bayesian method of estimation can accurately estimate all these key model variables using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In the presence of both process and observation noises, it requires to use adequate particle MCMC (PMCMC) algorithms to efficiently sample the hidden states which, consequently, allows for a precise estimation of all noise parameters involved. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, appropriate choices of prior distributions for the noise parameters have enabled analytical posterior distributions and only simple updates are required. Furthermore, this estimation strategy can be easily generalized and adapted to different types of plant growth models, such as organ-scale or compartmental, provided that they are formulated as hidden Markov models. Our estimation method improves on those classically used in plant growth modeling in several aspects: First, by building upon a general probabilistic framework the estimation results allow proper statistical analyses. It is useful in prediction, no only for uncertainty and risk analysis (e.g., for crop yield prediction) but also to analyze the results of experimental trials, for example, to compare genotypes in breeding. Moreover, the care taken in the estimation of hidden variables opens new perspectives in the understanding of inner growth processes, notably the balance and interaction between biomass production and allocation (referred to as source-sink dynamics). Applications of this estimation procedure are demonstrated on the GreenLab model for Arabidopsis thaliana and the Log-Normal Allocation and Senescence (LNAS) model for sugar beet, on both synthetic and real data.

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique for parameter estimation and inference in pesticide fate and transport modeling

In this chapter, various parameter estimation methods are presented. First, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is introduced, which is then applied to estimate model parameters utilizing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Next, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is described, aiming to estimate model parameters with partial observations. The EM algorithm alternates between estimating the parameters via maximum likelihood estimation and recovering the unobserved state with uncertainty quantification via nonlinear smoothing. Closed analytic formulae are available for this entire parameter estimation procedure when the EM is applied to the CGNS developed in Chap. 8, where physics constraints are naturally incorporated. This chapter also discusses some theoretical and numerical results of parameter estimation via data assimilation, which treats parameters as augmented state variables. Finally, learning the structure and parameters of complex dynamical systems utilizing data is discussed. In addition to the constrained optimization via an L1 regularization, the sparse identification of the model structure can also be carried out in light of information theory. The latter exploits the causation entropy to determine the model structure with a physical justification, which also significantly facilitates the parameter estimation that becomes a simple quadratic optimization problem.

In this paper, the statistical inference of the unknown parameters of a Burr Type III (BIII) distribution based on the unified hybrid censored sample is studied. The maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters are obtained using the Expectation–Maximization algorithm. It is observed that the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in explicit forms, hence Lindley's approximation and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique are used to compute the Bayes estimators. Further the highest posterior density credible intervals of the unknown parameters based on the MCMC samples are provided. The new model selection test is developed in discriminating between two competing models under unified hybrid censoring scheme. Finally, the potentiality of the BIII distribution to analyze the real data is illustrated by using the fracture toughness data of the three different materials namely silicon nitride (Si3N4), Zirconium dioxide (ZrO2) and sialon (Si6−xAlxOxN8−x). It is observed that for the present data sets, the BIII distribution has the better fit than the Weibull distribution which is frequently used in the fracture toughness data analysis.

This paper addresses the problem of tracking multiple pedestrians whose motion is dependent on one another. The behavior of a pedestrian may be often affected by the motion of other pedestrians, obstacles in the surrounding, and his/her intended destination. Hence, a motion modeling technique, which integrates the various factors that affect the motion of pedestrians, is needed. In this paper, a social force based motion model integrated into the probability hypothesis density (PHD) framework is proposed. The social force concept has previously been used to model pedestrian motion when there are interactions among pedestrians. In this paper, the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique and the Gaussian mixture (GM) technique are used to implement the proposed Social Force PHD (SF-PHD) filter and its multiple model variant in pedestrian tracking scenarios. A particle labeling approach is used in the SMC technique while a Gaussian component labeling approach is used in the GM technique for this purpose. Also, a modified performance measure independent of the proposed approaches but based on the posterior Cramer–Rao lower bound for targets whose motion is dependent on one another is derived. Simulation and real data-based results show that both the SMC implementation and the GM implementation of the proposed SF-PHD filter outperform existing filters that assume independent motion among ground targets.

Classical and Bayesian inferential approaches using Lomax model under progressively type-I hybrid censoring

On the basis of a previous expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, this paper applies the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to estimate nonlinear state-space models (SSMs). The smoothed simultaneous particles for joint states are generated by importance resampling (IR) and are directly used to compute a log-likelihood function and its Jacobian vector and Hessian matrix. As a result, a relatively less computational load can thus be obtained, which is crucial to practical applications of the particle MCMC. In addition, the SSM parameters can be recursively iterated by the more efficient Newton method, in which an optimal step length for parameter update in each iteration is optimized by a 1-D search method. This presented identification method has a good global parameter convergence in case iteration parameters are initialized from quite large intervals of their respective true values. Finally, a numerical simulation for identification of a classical SSM is used to show the effectiveness of the studied identification method.

The Ideal Observer (IO) performance has been advocated when optimizing medical imaging systems for signal detection tasks. However, analytical computation of the IO test statistic is generally intractable. To approximate the IO test statistic, sampling-based methods that employ Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have been developed. However, current applications of MCMC techniques have been limited to several object models such as a lumpy object model and a binary texture model, and it remains unclear how MCMC methods can be implemented with other more sophisticated object models. Deep learning methods that employ generative adversarial networks (GANs) hold great promise to learn stochastic object models (SOMs) from image data. In this study, we described a method to approximate the IO by applying MCMC techniques to SOMs learned by use of GANs. The proposed method can be employed with arbitrary object models that can be learned by use of GANs, thereby the domain of applicability of MCMC techniques for approximating the IO performance is extended. In this study, both signal-known-exactly (SKE) and signal-known-statistically (SKS) binary signal detection tasks are considered. The IO performance computed by the proposed method is compared to that computed by the conventional MCMC method. The advantages of the proposed method are discussed.

The remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is an important metric that helps in condition-based maintenance. Damage data obtained from the diagnostics techniques are often noisy, and the RUL estimated from the data is less reliable. Estimating the probabilistic RUL by quantifying the uncertainty in the predictive model parameters using the noisy data increases confidence in the predicted values. In this work, Bayesian inference is used to inversely quantify the uncertainty in the model parameters of the predictive damage model in adhesively bonded joints, and quantified parameter uncertainty is represented by a probability distribution function (PDF). It is difficult to obtain a closed-form solution for the RUL from the PDF of model parameters due to the nonlinearity of the damage models. Instead, statistical simulations are used to generate the model parameter samples from the PDF, and the RUL is estimated from the samples. In the statistical simulations, the predictive damage model is evaluated for each parameter sample. Using a physics-based model as the predictive model increases computational time, which makes the statistical techniques to be computationally expensive. It is essential to reduce the computational time to estimate the RUL in a feasible time. In this work, real-time probabilistic RUL estimation is demonstrated in adhesively bonded joints using the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling method and cloud-based computations. The SMC sampling method is an alternative to traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which enables generating statistical parameter samples in parallel. The parallel computational capabilities of the SMC methods are exploited by running the SMC simulation on multiple cloud calls. This approach is demonstrated by estimating fatigue RUL in the adhesively bonded joint. The accuracy of probabilistic RUL estimated by SMC is validated by comparing it with RUL estimated by the MCMC and the experimental values. The SMC simulation is run on the cloud and the computational speedup of the SMC is demonstrated.

Clustering is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, whose solution is commonly computed by the Expectation-Maximization (EM) method, which finds a locally optimal solution for an objective function called log-likelihood. Since the surface of the log-likelihood function is non convex, a stochastic search with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can help escaping locally optimal solutions. In this article, we tackle two fundamental conflicting goals: Finding higher quality solutions and achieving faster convergence. With that motivation in mind, we introduce an efficient algorithm that combines elements of the EM and MCMC methods to find clustering solutions that are qualitatively better than those found by the standard EM method. Moreover, our hybrid algorithm allows tuning model parameters and understanding the uncertainty in their estimation. The main issue with MCMC methods is that they generally require a very large number of iterations to explore the posterior of each model parameter. Convergence is accelerated by several algorithmic improvements which include sufficient statistics, simplified model parameter priors, fixing covariance matrices and iterative sampling from small blocks of the data set. A brief experimental evaluation shows promising results.

The unified hybrid censoring is a mixture of generalized Type I and Type II hybrid censoring schemes. This paper presents the statistical inference and prediction of the Burr Type XII distribution for unified hybrid-censored data. The maximum likelihood estimators for estimating the unknown parameters are developed using the expectation-maximization algorithm. The Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters under the assumption of independent gamma priors are obtained using two approximations, namely Lindley's approximation and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. Also, MCMC samples are used to construct the highest posterior density credible intervals as well. Simulation experiments are performed to compare the different proposed methods. The prediction of the future observations based on a unified hybrid-censored sample is also provided. A real dataset representing the droplet splashing reported in 90° spray angle is used to illustrate the derived results. Furthermore, a useful interval say tracking interval is introduced for comparing the distance of the two rival models from the true model.

This article estimates technical and allocative inefficiencies and increase in costs therefrom of individual firms using a translog cost system consisting of the cost function and the cost share equations. We call it a nonlinear random-effects system because technical and allocative inefficiencies are random (hence the term random effects) and are separated from the random noise terms appearing in each equation of the system, and because the inefficiency terms appear in the system in a highly nonlinear fashion, which helps in separating them from random errors. We use Bayesian inference procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to estimate the proposed system. Inferences on firm-specific technical inefficiency and both input-specific and firm-specific allocative inefficiencies are developed using MCMC techniques. We apply the new methods to a sample of 500 U.S. commercial banks. We focus on input allocation problem based on the assumption that banks minimize cost. Empirical results show that cost for the top (bottom) 10% of banks is increased by at least 3% (11%) due to technical inefficiency. In contrast, very few banks are found to be efficient in allocating all the inputs. Costs are increased by 13% on average due to input misallocation. Increase in costs due to both technical and allocative inefficiencies for the top (bottom) 10% of the banks is at least 11% (29%). When translated into dollar figures, this result indicates that elimination of technical and allocative inefficiencies would save the top (bottom) 10% of the banks more than $$.20 ($$3.56) million. We also find that none of the banks in our sample exceeded the efficient scale size, although most of them were operating near their optimum scale (unitary returns to scale).

Using the standard one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, we systematically analyse the quasi-simultaneous multiwavelength spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of Mrk 421 and Mrk 501 during states of relatively low activity. With this model in place, a semi-analytical method is developed to examine the uncertainty in jet power estimation caused by degeneracy of the radiative models. The semi-analytical method, in combination with the MCMC technique, allows us to explore the jet properties over a wide range of the variability time-scale. Our results seem to support the following. (i) In both Mrk 421 and Mrk 501, the jets are powered by rapidly rotating black holes. The black hole spin in Mrk 501 could be lower than that in Mrk 421 or possibly they are equal under the assumption of the Blandford–Znajek mechanism. (ii) The energy losses, which could be used to form the large-scale radio structure, are important for reconciling the differences of the kinetic power derived from the observations of the large-scale structure and the SED fitting results. Moreover, the jet energy losses in the propagation are more significant for Mrk 501 than for Mrk 421.

Group Importance Sampling for particle filtering and MCMC

Bayesian approaches to decision trees (DTs) using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers have recently demonstrated state-of-the-art accuracy performance when it comes to training DTs to solve classification problems. Despite the competitive classification accuracy, MCMC requires a potentially long runtime to converge. A widely used approach to reducing an algorithm’s runtime is to employ modern multi-core computer architectures, either with shared memory (SM) or distributed memory (DM), and use parallel computing to accelerate the algorithm. However, the inherent sequential nature of MCMC makes it unsuitable for parallel implementation unless the accuracy is sacrificed. This issue is particularly evident in DM architectures, which normally provide access to larger numbers of cores than SM. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are a parallel alternative to MCMC, which do not trade off accuracy for parallelism. However, the performance of SMC samplers in the context of DTs is underexplored, and the parallelization is complicated by the challenges in parallelizing its bottleneck, namely redistribution, especially on variable-size data types such as DTs. In this work, we study the problem of parallelizing SMC in the context of DTs both on SM and DM. On both memory architectures, we show that the proposed parallelization strategies achieve asymptotically optimal O(log2N) time complexity. Numerical results are presented for a 32-core SM machine and a 256-core DM cluster. For both computer architectures, the experimental results show that our approach has comparable or better accuracy than MCMC but runs up to 51 times faster on SM and 640 times faster on DM. In this paper, we share the GitHub link to the source code.