Multi-Convolution Feature Extraction and Recurrent Neural Network Dependent Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction

Water quality prediction (WQP) plays an essential role in water quality management for aquaculture to make aquaculture production profitable and sustainable. In this work, we propose hybrid deep learning (DL) models, convolutional neural network (CNN) with the long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) for aquaculture WQP. CNN can effectively fetch the aquaculture water quality characteristics, whereas GRU and LSTM can learn long-term dependencies in the time series data. We conduct experiments using the two different water quality datasets and present an extensive study on the impact of hyperparameters on the performance of the proposed hybrid DL models. Furthermore, the performance of hybrid CNN-LSTM and CNN-GRU models are compared with different baseline LSTM, GRU and CNN DL models and also with attention-based LSTM and attention-based GRU DL models. The results show that the hybrid CNN-LSTM outperformed all other models in terms of prediction accuracy and computation time.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is vital for the effective and economic operation of power grids and energy markets. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of electricity demand as well as its dependency on various external factors renders STLF a challenging task. To that end, several deep learning models have been proposed in the literature for STLF, reporting promising results. In order to evaluate the accuracy of said models in day-ahead forecasting settings, in this paper we focus on the national net aggregated STLF of Portugal and conduct a comparative study considering a set of indicative, well-established deep autoregressive models, namely multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), neural basis expansion coefficient analysis (N-BEATS), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). Moreover, we identify factors that significantly affect the demand and investigate their impact on the accuracy of each model. Our results suggest that N-BEATS consistently outperforms the rest of the examined models. MLP follows, providing further evidence towards the use of feed-forward networks over relatively more sophisticated architectures. Finally, certain calendar and weather features like the hour of the day and the temperature are identified as key accuracy drivers, providing insights regarding the forecasting approach that should be used per case.

Short-term load forecasting is viewed as one promising technology for demand prediction under the most critical inputs for the promising arrangement of power plant units. Thus, it is imperative to present new incentive methods to motivate such power system operations for electricity management. This paper proposes an approach for short-term electric load forecasting using long short-term memory networks and an improved sine cosine algorithm called MetaREC. First, using long short-term memory networks for a special kind of recurrent neural network, the dispatching commands have the characteristics of storing and transmitting both long-term and short-term memories. Next, four important parameters are determined using the sine cosine algorithm base on a logistic chaos operator and multilevel modulation factor to overcome the inaccuracy of long short-term memory networks prediction, in terms of the manual selection of parameter values. Moreover, the performance of the MetaREC method outperforms others with regard to convergence accuracy and convergence speed on a variety of test functions. Finally, our analysis is extended to the scenario of the MetaREC_long short-term memory with back propagation neural network, long short-term memory networks with default parameters, long short-term memory networks with the conventional sine-cosine algorithm, and long short-term memory networks with whale optimization for power load forecasting on a real electric load dataset. Simulation results demonstrate that the multiple forecasts with MetaREC_long short-term memory can effectively incentivize the high accuracy and stability for short-term power load forecasting.

Short-term load forecasting plays a vital role for the power system’s safe operation and production arrangements. This paper regards electric load forecasting as a nonlinear time series prediction problem, and establishes the electric load autoregressive prediction model (ARX Model) based on historical load data, approaching ARX model parameters with RBF neural network, estimating model parameters with using a Structured Nonlinear Parameters Optimization Method (SNPOM), proposing cycle prediction method for short-term electric load forecasting. Experimental results show that the method has higher prediction accuracy for short-term electric load forecasting. Keywords: Short-term load forecasting; time series; RBF-ARX model; cycle forecasting; structured nonlinear parameter optimization method

Power system load is a stochastic and non-stationary process. Due to the influence of various factors, some bad data may exist in the load observation value. These data are mixed into the normal load data to participate in the training of neural network, which seriously affects the accuracy of load forecasting. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, improving the precision of load forecasting is an important means to ensure the scientific decision-making of power system optimization. In order to improve the precision of short term load forecasting in power system, a short-term load forecasting model based on genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize BP neural network. Firstly, using genetic algorithm to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network to improve the prediction accuracy of BP neural network; Through the comparison and analysis before and after the model optimization, the experimental results with smaller prediction error were obtained. The simulation results show that the short-term load forecasting model established by this method has faster convergence rate and higher prediction precision.

Short-Term Load Forecast at residential house level plays a critical role in home energy management system. While a variety of machine learning based load forecasting methods have been proposed, their prediction performance have not been assessed against cyber threats on smart meters which have been increasingly reported. This paper investigates the vulnerability of four extensively used machine learning algorithms for residential short-term load forecast against cyberattacks, including Nonlinear Auto Regression with external input (NARX) neural network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), and long-short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning. We use the REFIT dataset which collected whole-house aggregated loads at 8-second intervals continuously from 20 houses over a two-year period in the U.K. The results were determined and show the predictions using NARX and LSTM. Four cyberattack models are investigated, including pulse, scale, ramp, and random. The vulnerability assessment results indicate the LSTM provides the most accurate prediction without cyberattacks. However, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM fluctuates when there are cyber-attacks. Among the four cyberattacks, the random attack triggered the larges variations on the predication results.

Future soil moisture (SM) estimation is a practically useful task for eco-hydrologists, agriculturists, and stakeholders in environment health monitoring to generate comprehensive understanding of hydro-physical and soil dynamic system. This paper demonstrates the capability of a hybridised long short-term memory (LSTM) predictive framework to emulate SM under global warming scenarios. The proposed model is developed by integrating Boruta-random forest (BRF) feature selection and capturing significant antecedent memory of SM behaviour were applied to estimate the future SM using Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase-5 (CMIP5) repository. The BRF is adapted to extract pertinent features in hydro-meteorological variables intrinsically related to SM, and therefore, is used to construct a hybridised deep learning (i.e., BRF-LSTM) model. To establish the viability of deep learning model for SM estimation until 2100, five stations closely matched to the global climate model grid are selected in Australia's Murray Darling Basin. The performance skill of BRF-LSTM model is compared against standalone models (i.e., LSTM, SVR, and MARS). The results showed that the hybrid deep learning model (i.e., BRF-LSTM) with a feature selection capability could significantly outperform the standalone models for both warming simulations. The proposed hybrid model also demonstrated superiority in SM estimation with over 95% of all predictive errors lying below 0.02 mm, and low relative root means square error (≈ 1.06% for RCP4.5 and ≈ 1.888% for RCP8.5) to outperform all the benchmark models. This study demonstrates the capability of LSTM algorithm coupled with BRF feature selection to simulate future soil moisture under climate change, and so, can be successfully implemented in hydrology, agriculture, soil use management and environmental management.

Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation, and control. Many operating decisions are based on load forecasts, such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity, reliability analysis, and maintenance planning for the generators. This paper discusses significant role of artificial intelligence (AI) in short-term load forecasting (STLF), that is, the day-ahead hourly forecast of the power system load. A new artificial neural network (ANN) has been designed to compute the forecasted load. The data used in the modeling of ANN are hourly historical data of the temperature and electricity load. The ANN model is trained on hourly data from Ontario Electricity Market from 2007 to 2011 and tested on out-of-sample data from 2012. Simulation results obtained have shown that day-ahead hourly forecasts of load using proposed ANN is very accurate with very less error. However load forecast considering the effect of temperature is better than without taking it as input parameter.

Load forecasting has an extraordinary important role in planning and operations of power systems. Since the beginning of the electrical industries, load forecasting has received special attention and different methods have been presented on this subject. In this paper, a practical load forecasting method for load forecasting in Khorasan province electricity market in the time limit between March 2004 to July 2008 is presented. In the proposed method, a multilayer perceptron neural network is trained with the obtained data. The program considered, has been written in visual basic language in the excel environment in which excel environment has been used as an information bank data base. According to the high volume of the information needed for training the neural network, this stage would be a time consuming task. Therefore, the MATLAB environment has been used for fast execution and at the same time accurate forecasting of the load. Finally, the accuracy of the structure considered has been forecasted and tested .The results show that the maximum error resulting from the network real data at July 2008 has been about 4.94%.

Priority index considering temperature and date proximity for selection of similar days in knowledge-based short term load forecasting method

In electrical engineering load forecasting have been tried out using traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence techniques and have become one of the major research fields. An accurate and efficient Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role for economic operational planning of both regulated power systems and electricity markets. To develop a solution/methodology to demand forecast (Hourly load forecast) and by incorporating weather conditions. However, STLF it is pertinent to understand conventional methods. Therefore, popular conventional methods were implemented to learn methods for STLF. This paper presents Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Auto Regressive and Multiple linear regressions for short term load forecasting. Conventional technique approach is implemented on historical load data for forecasting the load. PGVCL hourly load data used for training and testing is collected from ALDC, Jetpur, Gujarat. Hence hereby in this paper I have compared five conventional methods for STLF and have come out with a result that forecasting errors of time series models gives reasonably accurate hour ahead load forecast.

The primary objective of Short-Term Load Forecasting, often known as STLF, is to forecast load with a lead time of anything from one hour to seven days. In this study, we suggest the use of AI approaches for short-term load forecasting. Some examples of these techniques are artificial neural networks (ANN) and wavelet neural networks (WNN) (STLF). A reliable prediction makes the challenge of managing generation and load much more manageable. The ANN and WNN algorithms are used in order to calculate the STLF for the next day. The comparison between the two approaches as well as their performance is outlined, and the normalized MAPE error for one day ahead is shown in the article as well. In addition to this, the Validation is performed on the TNEB testing system. This study provided an application of AI techniques, specifically ANN and WNN, for STLF applications in power systems. For hourly load forecasting, analyses of the capabilities and characteristics of ANN and WNN are done. The suggested strategies have already been tried and tested in actual world settings with great success.

This paper presented a hybrid neural network model to integrate information entropy theory and ant colony clustering for load forecasting. As short-term load forecasting is a complex problem with multifactor in power system, if all these factors are used as inputs of neural network, it will not only result in complicated network structure, but also long learning time and inaccurate prediction. First, information entropy theory is used to select relevant ones from all load influential factors, the results are used as inputs of neural network. It can reduce irrelevant load influential factors and the input variables of the input layer for neural network. Next, considering the features of power load and reduced influential factors, using ant colony clustering method, the practical historical load data within one year is divided into several groups. A separate module based on neural networks models each group. Then, the typical samples in each clustered group were selected as the training set for the separate improved Elman neural network which is a kind of globally feed forward locally recurrent network model with distinguished dynamical characteristics. According to the procedures, the reduced input variables and the typical training samples for each neural network can be gotten. Thus the neural network forecasting model based on information entropy and ant colony clustering can be constructed which can effectively reduce the training time and improve convergent speed. During the forecasting process, pattern recognizing is employed to activate the corresponding module for hourly load forecasting. The presented model was tested using Hebei Province daily load data, and the satisfactory results were obtained.

Electricity load forecast needs to ensure minimum load wastage and requires intelligent decision-making systems to accurately predict future load demand. Learning capability, robustness and ability to solve nonlinear problems make ANN widely acceptable. For accurate short-term load forecast (STLF), an ensemble soft computing approach, namely ANN-PSOHm, composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with homeostasis based mutation is presented in this article. To enhance the learning strength of ANN, PSO undergoes homeostasis mutation to bring greater diversity among solutions by exploring in wider search space. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ANN, three case studies on load data of NEPOOL region (courtesy ISO New England) are performed. The experimental results show that ANN-PSOHm improves accuracy by 11.57% MAPE over ANN-PSO.