Multi-level Analysis of Peace and Conflict Data in GDELT

After the seminal work of Durkheim (1897), many subsequent studies have revealed a decline in suicide rates during wartime. However, their main focus was inter-state wars and whether the same argument holds for civil conflicts within a country is an important unresolved issue in the modern world. Moreover, the findings of the previous studies are not conclusive due to unobserved confounding factors. This study investigated the relationship between civil war and suicide rate through a more rigorous statistical approach using the Sri Lankan civil war as a case study. For this purpose, we employed a linear regression model with district and year fixed effects to estimate a difference-in-difference in the suicide rate between the peacetime and wartime periods as well as the contested and non-contested districts. The results indicate that the suicide rate in the contested districts in the wartime was significantly lower than the baseline by 11.8-14.4 points (95% CI 6.46-17.22 and 7.21-21.54, respectively), which corresponds to a 43-52% decline. The robustness of the possible confounding factors was analyzed and not noted to have so much effect as to alter the interpretation of the results. This finding supports the Durkheimian theory, which places importance on social integration as a determinant of suicide, even for civil conflicts.

This article examines the use of sexual violence and rape during the Sri Lankan civil war by the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL), as well as the control of sexuality by the insurgent force by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). While in both circumstances male bodies were also victims of sexual violence by the state, particularly when in custody, or forced celibacy, I specifically examine the political imaginaries which surrounded female bodies during and since the defeat of the LTTE in 2009 as forms of nation-building and state cartographic practices. Following Matthew H. Edney’s (2007) observation on the connected imaginaries of mapped bodies and female bodies, as they can be claimed and controlled in much the same way, I argue that sexual violence and/ or control becomes a form of nation-building. I suggest that the Sri Lankan civil war can tell us much about the violence required in nation-building.

Sri Lanka, at present, is haunted by memories and experiences of the protracted ethnic conflict which lasted for nearly three decades due extremities of extrajudicial and rampant killings, suicide bombing, and human rights violation. The war was mainly fought between the Liberation of Tamil Tiger (LTTE) and Sinhalese dominated state government. At the primary level, the conflict is viewed as the manifestation of ancient ethnic rivalry between the Tamil minority and the Sinhala majority. However, the causes of this conflict are far more complex than ethnic differences among the communities and stem largely from the pre-colonial, colonial and post-independence history of the country. Albeit many circumstances and situations have contributed to Tamil separatism and consequent insurgency but this paper is centred on the role of language politics and education in the conflict. The politicization of the issue of official language during the various phases of the war turned out to be the most powerful manifestation of the Sinhala –Tamil conflict, since language is a crucial factor in the maintenance and preservation of the cultural and ethnic identity, here the language became the exclusive marker of the ethnographic boundary between them. The language issue later manifested in the form of discrimination against Tamils in education. The indiscriminate practices after 1972, especially standardization policy and quota system for admission into universities based on language and pro-sinhala policies in the government sector paved the way for Tamil demand for a separate traditional homeland for Tamils. Hence this paper will analyse language politics and policies -Sinhala only act, and policies standardization and quota to understand the Tamil separatism during Sri Lankan civil war

IntroductionUnmet need for family planning is the main obstacle to achieve healthy timing and desired number of children. Decreasing the unmet need for FP respects and protects human right and help to decrease the influence on biodiversity. Unmet need for family planning is the contributor and devastating issue of maternal health. Therefore, meeting the unmet need of contraceptive averts the maternal death and poverty. Therefore, determining the magnitude and its determinants is very important to intervene and design appropriate program umbrella.ObjectiveTo determine the magnitude and its determinants of unmet need for family planning among reproductive age women in East Africa.MethodThis study was analyzed secondary data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of which contained detailed family planning for all interviewed women aged 15 to 49 years. The data were weighted using sampling weight before any statistical analysis to account the sampling design. STATA version 15 was used for extracting, editing, recoding, and multilevel analysis. Median odds ratio (MOR), proportional change in Variance (PCV), Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was analyzed. Four model was build and the best model was selected based on the smallest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Both bivariable and multivariable multilevel analysis was done. Variable with p-value< 0.25 were selected for multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis. Variables with p-value ≤5% declared as statistical significant with outcome variable.ResultsThe magnitude of unmet need for family planning was 24.66% (95%CI: 24.1–25.2). The identified determinants of unmet need for family planning was 30–39 years (AOR = 0.7; 95% CI 0.54–0.91), age of 40–49 (AOR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.58–0.99), rural residence (AOR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.02–1.34), female household head (AOR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.61–0.73), women having 4–6 child (AOR = 1.76; 95% CI 1.55–1.99), women having 7–9 child (AOR = 2.77; 95% CI 2.34–3.28) women having ≥10 child (AOR = 3.51; 95% CI 2.58–4.78), women who give their first birth 19-25 years (AOR = 1.1; 95% CI 1.0–1.26), 26–34 years (AOR = 1.4; 95% CI 1.19–1.83) ≥35 years (AOR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.1–4.27) and no fertility desire (AOR = 1.52; 95% CI 1.36–1.67) were the determinants of unmet need for family planning in east Africa.ConclusionUnmet need in east Africa is high as compare to other previous study. Maternal age, residence, sex of household head, number of children, age at first birth and fertility desire were the determinants identified in this study. Therefore, health interventions that reduce unmet need which enhance family planning service delivery among rural, male-headed household, women having more than three children and women who had no fertility desire needed in advance. Policies and programs of unmet need should be tailored the rural, young and no fertility desire women as well as male headed households.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is a private organization formed, in 1865, under the laws of Switzerland, with the aim of making wars more humane. In order to achieve this aim, the ICRC dedicated itself to the mission of giving succour to the victims of war, and of initiating the adoption of humanitarian rules of conduct of armed conflicts. In the ensuing years, the inter- national community endorsed the work of the ICRC and recognized its roles accord- ingly. In the meantime, there was no international criminal justice system in place to punish those who violated the international law of war. More than a century and a quarter after the birth of the ICRC, the United Nations initiated the creation of an international criminal justice system, with the establishment of the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda, under the powers of the Security Council to maintain international peace and security. The objective was to end impunity for those who would violate international law by committing geno- cide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. In a quite notable development, the ICRC registered in absolute terms its position to the effect that neither it nor those who worked under its auspices may be subjected to testimony before these International Tribunals. The bases offered for this assertion of absolute testimonial immunity are the practical requirements of the work of the ICRC, as well as custom- ary international law which is said to have recognized such a rule. This paper disputes the ICRC's assertion of absolute testimonial immunity as correctly founded in law or principle, although recognizing that the important work of the ICRC does fairly warrant a judicial reluctance to summon ICRC into the witness box. Nevertheless, such reluctance must be invoked on a case-by-case basis, and is not a matter of sub- stantive rule of law.

Signal detection is essential for identifying potential safety issues with drugs and medical devices. Change point analysis (CPA) detects changes in longitudinal data for a medical device without incorporating comparisons with other devices. This study investigated the temporal relationship between endoleak reports for aortic stent grafts identified using CPA and the issuance of the "Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) Alert for Proper Use of Medical Devices" in Japan. Device malfunction and adverse event reports for aortic stent grafts submitted to the PMDA between April 2008 and September 2022 were analyzed. The reports were mapped to the Medical Device Problem Terminology from the Japan Federation of Medical Devices Associations. CPA was used to identify temporal changes in report counts, with change points having confidence levels ≥ 90% being considered significant. A total of 20,678 reports were analyzed, including 23,541 device malfunctions and 30,500 adverse events. Endoleaks accounted for 10,779 events. CPA identified a significant increase in endoleak events in April 2015 (2 years before the regulatory alert). Confidence levels exceeded 90% in 76 out of 174 evaluated time points, first in July 2008 (9 years before the alert) and next in April 2016 (1 year before the alert). Based on these findings, CPA may help prioritize investigations of medical-device-related malfunctions and adverse events. However, the results do not indicate earlier or superior signal detection relative to regulatory authorities. Further research is needed to assess CPA's applicability to other medical devices and malfunctions.

Childhood basic vaccinations are a cost-effective and essential preventive health strategy globally in resource-limited nations. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals aim to reach these ambitious targets, making it crucial to identify underserved populations and address the barriers they face in accessing life-saving immunizations. To date, no spatial analyses have been performed to identify areas of hotspots of incomplete basic vaccination among children in resource-limited countries globally. Therefore, determining the geographic distribution of incomplete basic vaccinations and associated factors is important for prioritizing intervention programs in resource-limited countries. This study aims to assess incomplete basic vaccinations and associated factors among children aged 12-23 months in resource-limited countries based on the recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 48 countries. Data for the study were drawn from the DHS, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey conducted by considering the era of Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. A total of 48 resource-limited countries and a total weighted sample of 202,029 children (12-23 months) were included in our study. The data extraction, recoding, and analysis were conducted using STATA V.17. For the spatial analysis (spatial distribution, autocorrelation, and hotspot), ArcGIS version 10.7 software was used, and for the SaTScan analysis, SaTScan version 10.1 software was used. Descriptive statistics were presented using frequency tables and percentages. We employed multilevel logistic regression to investigate the associated factors of incomplete basic vaccination. In the multivariable analysis, variables with a p-value of ≤0.05 are considered significant factors associated with incomplete basic vaccination among children aged 12-23 months. The overall incompleteness of basic vaccination among children in resource-limited countries was 51% (95%CI: 50-51%). The spatial analysis revealed that the incomplete basic vaccination among children significantly varied across resource-limited countries (Global Moran's I = 0.208468, p < 0.001). The most likely clusters were located in Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger, which were centered at (2.028929N, 15.135990 E)/1425.16 km radius, with a Log-Likelihood Ratio (LLR) of 3519.48 and a Relative Risk (RR) of 1.38 at p-value <0.001. Based on the final model of multilevel analysis, the following variables were statistically significant in relation to incomplete basic vaccination: age, marital status, maternal education, husband's education, maternal occupation, media exposure, wealth index, antenatal care (ANC) visits, birth order, place of delivery, mode of delivery, health insurance coverage, perception of distance from a health facility, place of residence, community media exposure, community education, and country-level income status. The spatial distribution of incomplete basic vaccination was significantly varied across the resource-limited countries. Both individual- and community-level factors were significantly associated with incomplete basic vaccination. Therefore, the World Health Organization and other stakeholders involved in child healthcare should work together to expand childhood vaccination and prioritize the hotspot areas of developing countries.

This chapter analyzes the nexus of disability, disablement and masculinity in the context of the twenty-six year Sri Lankan civil war and the disability theatre workshops of the Sunera Foundation in which disabled soldiers of the Sri Lanka army have continued to participate in after the war. It asks what specific characteristics constitute war related impairment and its impact on military men, and draws attention to how disabled soldiers negotiate their impairment in a specific Sri Lankan cultural and political context. It also explores the exceptionality of their participation in the theatre, opening themselves up to gender reversal, homoerotic sensuality and non-indigenous forms of aesthetic expression. By exploring aspects of masculinity and disability in a South Asian context, as well as issues of applied/devised theatre, its promise of transformation, and aesthetic criteria, the chapter brings together a range of conditions, discourses and practices that shape disability, gender, embodiment and performance in Sri Lanka today.

The Sri Lankan Civil War originated in religious and ethnic divides among the Sri Lankan population. Under British colonial rule, Sri Lankan society was dominated by English‐educated Christians who were disproportionately Tamil. With independence in 1948, the Sinhalese, the Buddhist ethnic majority comprising approximately 70 percent of the population, asserted their own identity, making Sinhalese the official language, establishing Buddhism as the official religion, and disenfranchising Tamil migrants who had moved to Sri Lanka from India under British rule to work on tea plantations. This created resentment among the largely Hindu Tamil minority. Tensions between Buddhist Sinhalese and Hindu Tamils grew steadily.

Multilevel modeling provides the ability to simultaneously evaluate the discounting of individuals and groups by examining choices between smaller sooner and larger later rewards. A multilevel logistic regression approach is advocated in which sensitivity to relative reward magnitude and relative delay are considered as separate contributors to choice. Examples of how to fit choice data using multilevel logistic models are provided to help researchers in the adoption of these methods.

BackgroundIn 2010, more than six million children in sub-Saharan Africa did not receive the full series of three doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine by one year of age. An evidence-based approach to addressing this burden of un-immunised children requires accurate knowledge of the underlying factors. We therefore developed and tested a model of childhood immunisation that includes individual, community and country-level characteristics.Method and FindingsWe conducted multilevel logistic regression analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data for 27,094 children aged 12–23 months, nested within 8,546 communities from 24 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the intra-country and intra-community correlation coefficient implied by the estimated intercept component variance, 21% and 32% of the variance in unimmunised children were attributable to country- and community-level factors respectively. Children born to mothers (OR 1.35, 95%CI 1.18 to 1.53) and fathers (OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.40) with no formal education were more likely to be unimmunised than those born to parents with secondary or higher education. Children from the poorest households were 36% more likely to be unimmunised than counterparts from the richest households. Maternal access to media significantly reduced the odds of children being unimmunised (OR 0.94, 95%CI 0.94 to 0.99). Mothers with health seeking behaviours were less likely to have unimmunised children (OR 0.56, 95%CI 0.54 to 0.58). However, children from urban areas (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23), communities with high illiteracy rates (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.23), and countries with high fertility rates (OR 4.43, 95% CI 1.04 to 18.92) were more likely to be unimmunised.ConclusionWe found that individual and contextual factors were associated with childhood immunisation, suggesting that public health programmes designed to improve coverage of childhood immunisation should address people, and the communities and societies in which they live.

Linear regression and cumulative sum analysis (CUSUM) change point analyses were used to determine whether there had been a significant change in the first flowering date between 1983 and 2006 for 65 species. Both methods agreed that the first flowering date of 47 species did not change and that eight species had a significant change (P &lt; 0.05) in their flowering. Three species shifted to later flowering and five species to earlier. Over the observation period, each method found that the average shift to later flowering was greater (37.4 days or approx. 1.56 days per year for CUSUM change point analysis and 51.4 days or 2.14 days per year for linear regression) than that to earlier flowering (28.4 days or approx. 1.20 days per year for change point analysis and 46.5 days or 1.97 days per year for linear regression). For the remaining 10 species the results of linear regression and change point methods differed. Each method found five species (three earlier flowering and two later) to have a significantly changed first flowering date over their observation period, where the other method did not. Some of these differences can be attributed to the fact that the CUSUM method can detect multiple change points whereas linear regression can not. Significant change points in first flowering date were identified for 13 species between the years 1987 to 1998. The most frequent year identified as a change point year was 1995. The two methods, although not interchangeable, had strong agreement (84.6%) in detecting shifts. This gives greater confidence that a change in flowering has occurred for eight species and equally importantly, that no change in first flowering date has occurred for 47 species.

The Quest for Information Privacy in Africa: A Review Essay

On August 12, 2022, Tamil relatives of those forcibly disappeared during the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983–2009) marked their 2,000th day of public protest. Since these roadside protests began, elderly women and men searching for their loved ones have passed away and transitional justice promises have failed, but the disappeared have not been found. This article examines archives of the disappeared: collections of files, objects, photographs, etc. about missing loved ones. Paradoxically, these archives, as evidence that the disappeared once lived, are at the core of the protests, yet they are still overlooked by the Sri Lankan state. I explore these collections by examining the intersection of critical personal archives, life writing scholarship, and South Asian studies. The emerging field of critical personal archives suits the unique quality of archives of disappearance, their constructed nature, and their underlying intimacy. Life writing scholarship focuses a much-needed critical lens on self-representation, power, and narrative in archives, especially regarding those whose stories are marginalized and/or not deemed archivable. Drawing on semi-structured interviews I carried out with mothers of the disappeared in 2016–2017 and 2022, I analyze these archives using three life writing concepts: relationality, cultural scripts, and autotopography. The result reaffirms the enduring cultural, political, and personal value of archives of the disappeared and calls for reimagining personal archives as politically and emotionally powerful forms of representation that carve space for love and resistance.

PurposeSignal detection methods have been used extensively in postmarket surveillance to identify elevated risks of adverse events associated with medical products (drugs, vaccines, and devices). However, current popular disproportionality methods ignore useful information such as trends when the data are aggregated over time for signal detection.MethodsIn this paper, we applied change point analysis (CPA) to trend analysis of medical products in a spontaneous adverse event reporting system. CPA was used to detect the time point at which statistical properties of a sequence of observations change over time. Two CPA approaches, change in mean and change in variance, were demonstrated by an example using neurostimulator adverse event dataset.ResultsTwo significant change points associated with upward trends were detected in June 2008 (n = 20, p < 0.001) and May 2011 (n = 51, p = 0.003). Further investigation confirmed battery issues and expansion of the indication for use could be possible causes for the occurrence of these change points. Two time points showed extremely low number of loss of therapy events, two cases in October 2009 and three in November 2009, which could be the result of reporting issues such as underreporting.ConclusionAs a complimentary tool to current signal detection efforts at FDA, CPA can be used to detect changes in the association between medical products and adverse events over time. Detecting these changes could be critical for public health regulation, adverse events surveillance, product recalls, and regulators’ understanding of the connection between adverse events and other events regarding regulated products. © 2015 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.