Modelling and optimisation of geothermal binary ORC systems using response surface methodology and artificial neural networks
This study focuses on the modeling and optimization of geothermal binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems to enhance power generation from geothermal systems using water as geofluid. Aspen HYSYS, utilizing the Peng-Robinson property package, was used to simulate the process, generating critical process data for subsequent modeling and optimization. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were employed to model the relationships between input factors and output response, utilizing a Box-Behnken Design (BBD) for three key input variables: working fluid flow rate, working fluid outlet pressure, and turbine outlet pressure. Both RSM and ANN demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, with RSM achieving an R2 value of 0.9966 and an RMSE of 12.254, while ANN achieved an R2 value of 0.9886 and an RMSE of 23.722, indicating that RSM marginally outperformed ANN in terms of modelling accuracy. Optimization of the ORC system was conducted using RSM and ANN coupled with a Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA), aimed at determining the optimal values for input and output parameters. The ANN-GA optimization results were validated using Aspen HYSYS and showed superior performance over RSM. ANN-GA predicted optimal values of working fluid flow rate, working fluid outlet pressure, and turbine outlet pressure as 12 kg/s, 19 bar, and 1.2 bar, respectively, which perfectly matched the Aspen HYSYS validation results. This optimization yielded a power output of 958.48 kW, which closely aligned with the Aspen HYSYS validation output of 952.9 kW, reflecting a minimal percentage error of 0.59%. Conversely, RSM predicted slightly deviated optimal values of 11.8 kg/s, 18.47 bar, and 1.2 bar, with a corresponding power output of 940.78 kW. When validated with HYSYS, the RSM-predicted output was 927.2 kW, resulting in a higher percentage error of 1.46%, thereby underperforming relative to ANN-GA. The study highlights the comparative strengths of RSM and ANN-GA, demonstrating that while RSM excels in accurately modeling the relationship and interactions between input factors and output responses, the ANN-GA framework exhibits a significantly higher capability in navigating complex nonlinear optimization landscapes. This highlights the effectiveness of integrating machine learning models with meta-heuristic algorithms for enhanced optimization performance. The findings contribute to advancing the methodology for optimizing geothermal ORC systems and offer a robust framework for improving power generation efficiency in geothermal energy applications.
Read more