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Key Points We used in situ whole-ecosystem manipulations to evaluate peatland carbon cycle changes to a range of warming conditions and elevated CO2 Warming caused variable responses for vegetation and losses of CO2 and CH4 for a linear response of 31.3 g C·m−2·year−1·°C−1 Models are capable of capturing C cycle responses to temperature under ambient CO2 conditions but overpredict sensitivity to elevated CO2